The Lead:
While the Blame Stakes serves as Churchill Downs' prep to next month's Grade 1 Stephen Foster, the main event will be hard-pressed to top the tune-up. All 10 entrants are graded stakes winners, and the added juice of a Kentucky Derby winner in the lineup adds extra wattage to the marquee. The Blame will be Race 10 on an 11-race Stephen Foster Preview Day matinee that includes 6 stakes races.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winner MYSTIK DAN's 2024 Kentucky Derby trophy stands on its own, but the field includes Grade 2 winners KATONAH and POST TIME, the latter also Grade 1-placed. Grade 3 winners include ALEXANDER HELIOS, ANTIQUARIAN, BEST ACTOR, HALL OF FAME, MOST WANTED, TENNESSEE LAMB and BANSHING, the last of which Grade 1-placed as well. KATONAH and POST TIME arguably have an overall strength of schedule edge.
Pace:
At 1-1/8 miles, you expect a modest tempo, but this field has plenty of quality expected near the top. MOST WANTED and BANISHING could carve things out, but ALEXANDER HELIOS, ANTIQUARIAN, BEST ACTOR and HALL OF FAME won't let anyone get away crawling. A solid finisher should have every chance if he fires his shot.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-KATONAH: After winning the San Pasqual at Santa Anita in January, nothing has gone right in 3 subsequent starts in the Big 'Cap, Dubai World Cup and Alysheba locally. This would be a drop in class, but note Doug O'Neill cross-entered this 6-year-old in Sunday's Race 7 allowance and could wind up there -- not exactly a confident stakes move.
#2-ALEXANDER HELIOS: Oaklawn's Razorback winner in February should be inside pace here under Irad Ortiz Jr. and returns to track in which he's run well (maiden win 2023, allowance runner-up to stakes-class Hit Show in 2024 from 2 Churchill appearances). Like most, he's better vs. softer paces. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and Ortiz teamed to win Santa Anita's Grade 1 Gamely and Grade 2 Hollywood Gold Cup on Memorial Day Monday.
#3-ANTIQUARIAN: Last year's Peter Pan winner and Belmont Stakes fifth-place finisher has been seen just once since and pulled away late to win an April 19 Gulfstream allowance over 7 furlongs. Gets a major class test Saturday when meeting elder stakes horses for the first time. One-paced sort should get an excellent trip for the always-dangerous John Velazquez-Todd Pletcher duo.
#4-MYSTIK DAN: 0-for-5 since draped in the roses nearly 13 months ago, but his Oaklawn effort May 3 was easily his best since the '24 Preakness. That second by a nose to legit speedster Saudi Crown would play very well in this race. He's drawn well, and expect Brian Hernandez Jr. to glue him to the pine and try to attack from midflight into the far turn. Fast work on the clock over the weekend indicates he may be holding that recent form. Value question with his reputation as a Derby winner, but a contender.
#5-BEST ACTOR: Cross-entered in Sunday allowance at Churchill along with stablemate Most Wanted and it's this colt who seems more likely to scratch Saturday. He's dropped 5 straight, which doesn't sound bad, but he hasn't won since November 2023. Tough to recommend if he stays in the lineup.
#6-HALL OF FAME: He's come back from an 8-month layoff to put together 5 straight strong efforts in his current form cycle and develop consistency at high levels. Plenty of pedigree for the 1-1/8 miles trip, but he has flattened out late in his last 2 and it's notable his record without Lasix (0-4) vs. with Lasix (4-5 with a second). Jose Ortiz returns to the saddle and has paired well with him previously.
#7-MOST WANTED: Cross-entered in Sunday CD allowance, but anticipate he'll run in this spot after a strong front-end second to Fierceness in the Alysheba on Oaks Day. Pace player won his first 4 and has runs second in 3 races since, never misfiring. Nine furlongs does extend him beyond his damside pedigree somewhat, but he won the Oklahoma Derby at that trip and nearly wired the Clark locally. Intensity of the pace challenges will be his hurdle.
#8-BANISHING: Warrior of a racehorse has fired 9 straight razor-sharp efforts in a row. Speedster showed how good he is right now after being nearly eliminated at the start of the Churchill Downs Handicap and furiously rallying to lose a melee photo in one of the outstanding races of 2025. Could await the Met Mile on the Belmont Stakes undercard, run here or even possibly both. No matter what race he runs in, discount him at great risk. Player, though 9 furlongs and pace pressure stretch his fabulous form.
#9-POST TIME (pictured): Wonderfully consistent, Laurel-based colt has blossomed into one of Maryland's best runners in decades. He's 10-for-16 lifetime and will be making his first start at Churchill Downs (he was a sharp, rallying third at Keeneland in the 2023 Perryville in his only venture to Kentucky). Got the old school allowance prep and blowout win at Laurel off a 5-month break last time and should be set up for the husband-wife team of Sheldon and Brittany Russell. Most of his damage has been done around 1-turn vs. 2, but his Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile rally was encouraging around multiple bends.
#10-TENNESSEE LAMB: Keeneland's Ben Ali winner has tallied victories in 3 of his last 4 after starting his career 0-8. Rusty Arnold trainee could be victimized by a wide trip with his pressing style and so much speed to his inside and far outside draw. Legitimate challenges to overcome and may need to make another big leap forward to contend.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
POST TIME gets a great pace set-up and has posted triple-digit BRIS late pace figures in 8 of his last 10 starts. He'll be rolling late.
Best Longshot Contender:
No big bombs projected, but ALEXANDER HELIOS is 6-1 morning line and capable of sprucing up the payouts.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win POST TIME.
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