The Lead:
Closing weekend of the Santa Anita autumn meet rolls through Arcadia this Friday through Sunday. Top-class stakes action helps bid farewell for the season as well as a mandatory payout Sunday in the Rainbow 6, which is approaching $700,000 in carryover cash heading into the racing week. Saturday's Autumn Miss matches 3-year-old filly turf milers as the headline race on a 10-race card. The Autumn Miss will be part of the Rainbow 6, late pick 5 and late pick 4.
1/ST BET and Xpressbet offer horseplayers a late pick four hit-and-split of an additional $2,000 daily at Santa Anita. Take down the pick 4 and share in the extra $2K with other members on the platform who also tabbed a winning pick 4 ticket.
Field Depth:
MADONE is a Grade 2 winner, while SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR had a Grade 3 victory taken away in a controversial disqualification. She, like ZERO TOLERANCE, are listed stakes winners. JAVANICA and EGO TRIP are graded stakes-placed. The classiest company lines have been kept by MADONE, JAVANICA and SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR, sharing similar quality.
Pace:
There's not a ton of pace in this turf mile. SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR, JAVANICA and ZERO TOLERANCE figure the most likely to be forwardly placed, but it does not appear to be a wild, dueling situation.
Our Eyes:
MADONE is a late runner who has never put up particularly fast BRIS late pace figures. Disregard her last when going considerably farther on the road at Belmont on a completely different kind of course. But notice the 45-and-change half-miles to set the table for her successful runs when running at home. I can't see that kind of pace developing here, which makes her vulnerable.
Admittedly, I've been chasing SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR since last fall, and she finally got back to the talent she's capable of when winning Belmont's Pebbles at 30-1 last time. She ran well despite dreadful post draws late in her 2-year-old campaign and had the makings of a top-class 3-year-old turf filly. Her inconsistency has been a downfall, but when she's on, she's really on. She's best when up near the pace and given this scenario, she might even go right to the front here. She wants firm turf at about a mile to a mile and one-sixteenth, and that's been hard for her to find. She should get it Saturday.
EGO TRIP also comes west off a third-place finish in the Grade 2 Lake Placid. Maiden or not, her form looks to hold up well against these. Veteran Victor Espinoza has become a top-tier turf rider in California later in his career and would appear a good fit on the Brendan Walsh trainee.
ZERO TOLERANCE and BURGOO ALLEY stretch out off a 1-3 finish in the Unzip Me Stakes at 6-1/2 furlongs down the hill. The mile is a completely different ballgame and could tilt the favor back to the more seasoned and experienced BURGOO ALLEY in their rematch. There's not much separating this pair, so be price sensitive when deciding between them.
JAVINICA looked highly promising earlier this year when runner-up in the El Camino Real Derby vs. the boys. But she's been off the board in all 3 stakes bid since, winning an allowance wire-to-wire at Del Mar on the class drop. The pace scenario here could carry her speed if asked to employ it. But she's hardly consistent on delivering that style.
Most Certain Exotics Contender:
SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR got back on the beam last time and should be comfortable near the front here over a firm turf course she appreciates.
Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
JAVANICA was 13-1 in the Del Mar Oaks and likely gets let go again at a price. Her best can factor for a long way in this mile with a modest pace scenario.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$100 win SPANISH LOVEAFFAIR.
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