Monday Myths: Do We Ride the Hot Hands into Breeders' Cup?

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Play the hot hands at the Breeders’ Cup.

Background:

Like any sport, fans and bettors are clamoring for the hot team heading into the playoffs. But does success in the month of October immediately preceding the Breeders’ Cup carry over to the two championship days? Should we be giving extra credence to those jockeys and trainers currently on a roll?

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database for the past 5 months of October, leading into the Breeders’ Cup editions each year. I researched national-brand jockeys and trainers who would be competing in the Cup and tried to get a sense of who was hottest in the lead-up. I compared their October win percentages along with their corresponding Breeders’ Cup records that year (starts: wins, seconds, thirds).

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2020 Hot October Trainers
Robertino Diodoro 43% … 2: 0-0-1
Brad Cox 26% … 8: 4-0-0
Mike Maker 25% … 1: 1-0-0
Bill Mott 25% … 6: 0-0-2
Peter Miller 24% … 3: 0-1-0

2020 Hot October Jockeys
Flavien Prat 25% … 8: 0-0-0
Jose Ortiz 24% … 11: 0-1-3
Luis Saez 22% … 12: 1-4-1

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2019 Hot October Trainers
Doug O’Neill 32% … 5: 0-0-0
Chad Brown 30% … 8: 3-0-2
Peter Miller 29% … 7: 1-2-1
Christophe Clement 25% … 2: 0-0-0

2019 Hot October Jockeys
Paco Lopez 31% …. 4: 0-1-1
Javier Castellano 27% … 7: 2-0-0
Joel Rosario 25% … 10: 2-1-0

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2018 Hot October Trainers
Bob Baffert 45% … 7: 1-0-0
Christophe Clement 43% … 1: 0-0-1
Peter Miller 29% … 5: 2-0-0
Chad Brown 28% … 12: 2-1-2
Todd Pletcher 25% … 6: 1-0-0

2018 Hot October Jockeys
Drayden Van Dyke 31% … 8: 1-1-0
Flavien Prat 24% … 6: 0-0-1
Irad Ortiz 21% … 13: 2-3-1

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2017 Hot October Trainers
Christophe Clement 41% … 3: 0-1-1
Mark Casse 25% … 7: 1-0-1
Steve Asmussen 24% … 3: 1-0-0
Chad Brown 23% … 13: 2-1-2

2017 Hot October Jockeys
Corey Nakatani 35% … 4: 0-0-1
Kent Desormeaux 29% … 6: 1-0-1
Irad Ortiz 24% … 6: 1-0-1
Julien Leparoux 24% … 5: 0-0-0
Florent Geroux 21% … 2: 1-0-0
Javier Castellano 21% … 9: 1-1-3

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2016 Hot October Trainers
Brian Lynch 29% … 1: 1-0-0
Brad Cox 25% … 2: 0-0-0
Bob Baffert 24% … 7: 2-0-1
Chad Brown 23% … 12: 1-3-1
Mark Casse 22% … 6: 1-2-0
Mike Maker 22% … 2: 0-0-0
Todd Pletcher 21% … 9: 0-0-1

2016 Hot October Jockeys
Tyler Gaffalione 26% … 1: 0-0-0
Irad Ortiz 25% … 5: 0-1-0
Flavien Prat 24% … 8: 1-0-2
John Velazquez 23% … 9: 0-0-0

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Overall Findings:
Of the 25 trainers deemed ‘hot’ in October coming into the Breeders’ Cup over the past 5 years, they’ve amassed 24 victories. Those took 138 starts and resulted in a 17% win rate for those barns in the championships. The 24 victories came in 68 total races offered, meaning ‘hot’ October barns accounted for 35% of the Breeders’ Cup wins over the past 5 years.

There were 19 jockeys deemed ‘hot’ in October going into the last 5 Breeders’ Cup renewals. The combined to win 13 races from 133 mounts, right near the 10% mark. With 13 wins in 68 championship races, ‘hot’ October jockeys combined to win 19% of Breeders’ Cup races offered.

Bottom line:

Hot trainers struck at a much sharper rate than jockeys and there’s something to be said for looking out for this year’s hot barns as Friday and Saturday approach. So who were October’s finest in 2021? Be on the lookout for:

2021 Hot October Trainers
Bob Baffert 40%
Wesley Ward 32%
Chad Brown 31%
Kenny McPeek 30%
Kelly Breen 30%
Arnaud Delacour 29%
Brad Cox 28%
Richard Mandella 27%
Graham Motion 26%
Bret Calhoun 24%
Doug O’Neill 23%

2021 Hot October Jockeys
Joel Rosario 35%
Paco Lopez 33%
Victor Espinoza 33%
Flavien Prat 32%
Tyler Gaffalione 26%
Mario Gutierrez 25%
Kent Desormeaux 22%
Brian Hernandez Jr. 21%


Additional Details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create.

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