The Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager returns Friday and horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can get in early on the $7 million main event at Keeneland on Oct. 31. A total of 23 wagering interests will be presented in the Futures – 22 individual runners and an all-others option. Antiquarian was originally included but has been retired before wagering commences. The $2 minimum play has a 16% takeout and will be offered from noon Friday through 6 pm ET on Sunday, which gives players time to process any Charles Town Classic and Travers Stakes news from this Friday and Saturday.
A second Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager will be offered Sept. 25-27, surrounding the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs, Goodwood at Santa Anita and Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park.
My future wager approach is that I want at least double the projected price on raceday for horses who still have 1 prep race to complete. That’s not being pie-in-the-sky this weekend when you consider 24 wagering interests here vs. 14 max in the Breeders’ Cup and often a Classic field size that could be in the single digits.
Let’s look at the 23 possibilities in 3 pockets: Most Likely Starters, Reasonable Chance to Start and Least Likely Starters. Your fair odds assessment has to start with their likely availability to compete. Each runner is listed with betting number, trainer, morning line odds and projected next start.
Most Likely Starters
24-All Others Not Listed, 8-1, Breeders’ Cup Classic 10/31 (Kee)
13-Magnitude, Steve Asmussen, 10-1, Breeders’ Cup Classic 10/31 (Kee)
6-Forever Young, Yoshito Yahagi, 5-1, Jockey Club Gold Cup 9/18 (Bel)
21-Sovereignty, Bill Mott, 4-1, Jockey Club Gold Cup 9/18 (Bel)
3-Baeza, Bill Mott, 15-1, Goodwood 9/26 (SA)
Considerations among this grouping:
A win in the JCGC by Forever Young or Sovereignty makes either almost certainly post-time favorite if able to get to the Classic. Neither seems like a play now as second-off-the-plane is generally a negative for foreign raiders (Forever Young) and Sovereignty has been managed cautiously and scratched from last year’s Classic pre-race. In other words: wait. Magnitude should love a speedy Keeneland strip and will be fresh with obviously more early speed than the presumed Classic co-favorites. Perhaps he loathes Saratoga and can be forgiven of his Whitney, but he may be close to 10-1 on raceday off that effort anyway, depending how the field shakes out. Not a bad buy but you’ll need fair odds closer to 20-1 this weekend, which isn’t likely. As for the All Others option, it’s likely to get you raceday action, but it’s most likely contribution would come from steep outsiders domestically or international runners from Aidan O’Brien et al who’ve had a checkered history in this race historically.
Reasonable Chance to Start
11-Knightsbridge, Bill Mott, 6-1, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile or Classic 10/31 (Kee)
17-Renegade, Todd Pletcher, 12-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
8-Golden Tempo, Cherie DeVaux, 12-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
9-Hit Show, Brad Cox, 80-1, Lukas Classic 9/26 (CD)
20-Skippylongstocking, Saffie Joseph Jr., 70-1, Charles Town Classic 8/28 (CT)
4-Commandment, Brad Cox, 40-1, Pennsylvania Derby 9/19 (Prx)
7-Further Ado, Brad Cox, 70-1, Pennsylvania Derby 9/19 (Prx)
2-Baby Vino, Lindsay Schultz, 50-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
18-Sea Strike, Chad Brown, 30-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
23-The Puma, Gustavo Delgado, 40-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
Considerations among this grouping:
Hard to take a short price on the ‘now horse’ Knightsbridge when the connections also have Sovereignty for the Classic and were not apt to run Cody’s Wish in the Classic even after his Whitney stretch-out win. I think he’s 67%-33% more to the Dirt Mile. The Travers result on Saturday is going to be tell-tale for many 3-year-olds. Even in victory, Golden Tempo wouldn’t seem assured to go on to the Classic as he’s been lightly campaigned post-Derby. Connections would seem gung-ho to run Renegade so long as he comes with his usual late run, but little value at 12-1 unless he dazzles Saturday. Sea Strike is the fresh, late bloomer in the Travers and could skyrocket up consideration if able to win Saturday in just his fourth start. Brad Cox’s PA Derby horses may be most interesting here and present the best value: Further Ado (who loves Keeneland) and Commandment (true 10F horse). Cox hasn’t been in a mindset to push Hit Show to the Breeders’ Cup, instead shopping easier spots, and a similar approach has been employed by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Skippylongstocking (always a Dirt Mile possibility).
Most Unlikely Starters
15-Nitrogen, Mark Casse, 20-1, Locust Grove 9/12 (CD)
16-Phileas Fogg, Gustavo Rodriguez, 25-1, Jockey Club Gold Cup 9/18 (Bel)
10-Iron Honor, Chad Brown, 90-1, Pennsylvania Derby 9/19 (Prx)
5-Emerging Market, Chad Brown, 90-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
12-Leading Change, Brad Cox, 60-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
14-Napoleon Solo, Chad Summers, 50-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
19-Silent Tactic, Mark Casse, 60-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)
22-Ted Noffey, Todd Pletcher, 50-1, TBD September return projected
Considerations among this grouping:
Nitrogen will be one of the heaviest favorites in the Breeders’ Cup if she beats Splendora in the Locust Grove in their pre-Distaff showdown. Can’t imagine they’d bypass odds-on status to battle the boys over 10 furlongs, even after her stellar Whitney second over 9. But if her price swelled higher than 20-1, you could do much worse. It’s a speculator’s bet, after all. Iron Honor would likely get a shot for Chad Brown if able to win the Pennsylvania Derby after a lightly raced sophomore season that has avoided a lot of wear and tear. His Preakness rival Napoleon Solo feels much more like a Dirt Mile candidate, but a Travers win on Saturday could change that. Ted Noffey hasn’t raced this year and seems an odd inclusion here still a few works away from even a possible return.
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