Monday Myths: Do Derby Longshots Reproduce at Preakness?

Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

Kentucky Derby longshots can’t be expected to reproduce in the Preakness.

Background:

With 80-1 shocker Rich Strike and 35-1 fourth-place finisher Simplification both expected to move from the Derby to the middle jewel in 2 weeks, skepticism abounds that they can replicate their success at Pimlico. Let’s see if that’s warranted.

Data Points:

I dialed up the Betmix database to look at each Preakness since 2013 to monitor how horses 15-1 or more from the Kentucky Derby performed in the Preakness. I looked not only at the horses who ran well in Louisville, but also those dismissed in the Derby at prices who decided to take a second swing where it may not have looked like the obvious move.

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Horses 15-1 or more in the Derby have an 18: 2-2-3 record (11% win, 28% in the money) in the Preakness since 2013.
Horses less than 15-1 in the Derby have a 19: 4-4-2 record (21% win, 53% in the money) in the Preakness since 2013.

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Horses 15-1 or more in the Derby have a $1.31 ROI for every $1 bet in the Preakness since 2013.
Horses less than 15-1 in the Derby have a $0.44 ROI for every $1 bet in the Preakness since 2013.

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Horses 15-1 or more in the Derby have had 15.0-1 average off odds in the Preakness since 2013.
Horses less than 15-1 in the Derby have had 4.1-1 average off odds in the Preakness since 2013.

Bottom line:

Behind Oxbow and War of Will, Kentucky Derby longshots have more held their own winning two Preakness Stakes in the last 9 years, while horses like Bravazo, Ride on Curlin and Mylute have hit the board at Pimlico following big Derby odds. But the numbers strongly lean toward those under 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby in terms of volume and strike rates. Those horses are bet heavier, however, and the ROI on being faithful to the Derby big prices definitely has shown some short-term gain. This one has a mixed report card.

Additional details:

You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, check out the Preakness runners in terms of Derby finishing positions and additional factors.

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