Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.
Assumption:
The west coast horses have an advantage when the west coast hosts the Breeders’ Cup.
Background:
There’s a lot of regional bias when it comes to Breeders’ Cup rooting interests. But when it comes to betting, do the Californians really have the advantage in a year like this when they host the festivities at Del Mar? Many horseplayers believe the home-team has an edge. We’ll see if the numbers agree.
Data Points:
I dialed up the Betmix database for the past 5 Breeders’ Cup editions held in California. This keeps clear of the synthetic era at Santa Anita where the track was vastly different than other parts of the country. This is 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2019 at Santa Anita as well as Del Mar’s lone-hosted event in 2017. This makes for 768 starters over 66 races.
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Horses prepped in California won 7.6% with a $0.79 ROI in the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cup editions.
Horses prepped outside California won 9.1% with a $1.05 ROI in the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cup editions.
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Horses prepped in California won 15 races during the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cup editions.
Horses prepped outside California won 51 races during the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cup editions.
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Horses prepped in California won 12.2% with a $1.31 ROI in dirt races at the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cups.
Horses prepped outside California won 8.8% with a $1.31 ROI in dirt races at the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cups.
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Horses prepped in California won 1.2% with a $0.06 ROI in turf races at the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cups.
Horses prepped outside California won 9.5% with a $0.73 ROI in turf races at the last 5 California-hosted Breeders’ Cups.
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Horses trained by California trainers won 20 races at the last 5 California-hosted Breederes’ Cups.
Horses trained by non-California trainers won 46 races at the last 5 California-hosted Breederes’ Cups.
Overall Findings:
Overall horses prepped outside of California have the statistical edge in California and those non-Californians also have won more than three times as many races. The big difference is the surface, where the Californians have done far more superior work on dirt than turf in these events. Some of the Cali-based turf sprinters did prep outside of California and return. They’ve done very well in the Turf Sprint.
Bottom line:
On the dirt, there’s been an advantage for the California home team, but on turf that evaporates. That tells me it’s more about the speed of the Californians on dirt, and their fast main tracks, than it is about any sort of home-field advantage running out of your home stall. Otherwise, you’d expect more turf success, at a bare minimum better than the terrible record on display in races outside the Turf Sprint. The Turf Sprint success also bares out that point about speed being more lethal than locale.
Additional Details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, find out which trainers have done best in the west coast Cups, etc. Bob Baffert has won 5 of the 20 races for California-based trainers in our 5-year survey; Peter Miller has 3, while Peter Eurton and Richard Mandella both have 2.
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