The turf takes center stage on Saturday at Saratoga with the Sword Dancer (G1) set to go as Race 10 on a 12-race card that kicks off at 12:35 PM eastern. As always, there are plenty of horizontal wagers available on top of the WPS and vertical ones, including the late Pick 5 that includes both the feature and the Saratoga Oaks (G2). It looks tough to get creative in several spots, so I will try to hit this thing multiple times.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Race 8:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 8 Surveillance; 2 Damon’s Mound
Backups: None
Forecast: #2 Damon’s Mound is the one to beat in this optional claimer over the main track. The son of Girvin never really lived up to expectations after an eye-catching debut at Churchill Downs. That said, the 5YO gets significant class relief after being pressed by Mullikin throughout the running of the Vanderbilt (G2) and tiring late last month. A step forward from that run and they are probably running for second. I do think #8 Surveillance is in with a shot though to spring the mild upset. The 8YO has danced a lot of dances earning over $1.1M through 47 lifetime start, but has hit the board in 5 of 8 this year. The blinkers come back off the Linda Rice trainee who should get a favorable trip under Kendrick Carmouche.
Race 9: Saratoga Oaks (G2)
Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6 Laurelin
Backups: 5 Totally Justified
Forecast: #6 Laurelin finds another great spot after an easy win as the odds-on public choice in the Penn Oaks in late June (pictured). The Zarak filly has been well campaigned by trainer Graham Motion and gets her first shot at a graded stakes score. She has proven form over both a turf with give in it, as well as over a firm course and looms the clear one to beat. #5 Totally Justified though is also worth a look, especially if Laurelin gets over bet. She stalked and tired last out in the Belmont Oaks (G1), but two-back ran huge finishing second to Fionn in the Regret (G3) at Churchill Downs. She broke her maiden over this course last August and could get overlooked in the wagering.
Race 10: Sword Dancer (G1)
Grade: X
Main Ticket: 6 Far Bridge
Backups: None
Forecast: #6 Far Bridge has been a machine of late rattling off 3 of 4 this year and now 9 of 18 overall for trainer Miguel Clement. The son of English Channel won this race last year, has an affinity for this course, and should get a favorable forward trip in a race that lacks serious early speed types. He will be very tough to beat If he able to run back to any of his recent efforts over this course.
Race 11:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1 Practical Lov
Backups: 3 Alyeska
Forecast: #1 Practical Lov looks like a tough customer in her first start versus winners for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The daughter of Practical Joke broke sharp in her second career start over this surface on July 5, stalked just off the pace, and powered home late to an easy 3-length score. The rail draw is not ideal, but I am not overly concerned since she has been so good out of the gate most of her career. A repeat of her last and they are running for second. #3 Alyeska though should have a move forward in here after a poor return effort in early July. The Vekoma filly commanded $675k at the Keeneland November 2024 Horses of Racing Age sale, but was flat in her first start for trainer Chad Brown. She is the one likeliest to benefit if Practical Lov has traffic issues.
Race 12:
Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 10 Charles J; 2 Amplitude
Backups: None
Forecast: The card concludes with this state-bred first-level allowance at 9-furlongs on the grass where the pace is likely to be honest if not fast. #2 Amplitude is the one likeliest to benefit from the probable race shape. The Klaravich Stables colt lacks speed and has just one victory in four starts, but should get a great setup in his first start at the Spa. He is the one to beat, but I also like #10 Charles J. The blinkers go on this 4YO gelding after a third-place effort versus similar last month. Irad Ortiz Jr. returning to ride for this lower profile barn has to be seen as a positive.
Good luck!
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