Matt Dinerman: Golden Gate Mandatory Pick 6 Analysis | Sunday, March 26, 2023

Golden Gate Fields has a mandatory payout in the Golden Pick Six of just over $112,000. A large amount of new money will be added to the Pick Six pool tomorrow: everything must go! Races 4-9 is the sequence. First post for the first leg of the wager, Race 4, is 2:48 PM PT.

Here is how I play the sequence:

Race 4: It sure looks like if #2 Refi Now runs his race, he’ll be tough to reel in down the lane. Coming off a runaway victory at the level, the key with him is to get him to the outside of his competition. From what I’ve been told by the people who know him best, he doesn’t care to be inside of other horses. (STRATEGY: We’ll cross our fingers, hope he gets the trip, and single our top pick in the first leg.)

Race 5: If Refi Now is to win the fourth race, then the Pick Six sequence only gets tougher from here. Significantly tougher. Race 5 is our signature race of the day: an allowance for 3-year-old fillies at one mile. Although Southern California shipper #6 Happy Gal is going to garnish plenty of attention in the wagering, she may be closer in talent level with the local group assembled than the past performances indicate. My top pick in the race is #1 Delusively, who was placed too far back last time and came on with a strong rush to run third. Her pedigree indicates she could be nice-by Breeders Cup winner Good Magic, she is a half sibling to Grade 2 winning router Chocolate Martini-and speed figures suggest she is getting faster with each afternoon appearance. #4 Mastery Kat has always been well regarded and comes off a runner up finish behind stakes placed Rousing Jewel on February 11. She will get the most betting support out of any of the locals. #2 Bourbon Glaze ran her best race yet when finishing second behind Southern California invader Naughty Lottie, who was dropping out of stakes company at Santa Anita. Naughty Lottie is a better racer than the runners assembled here, so #2 Bourbon Glaze makes my ticket. (STRATEGY: In a race with no standout-in my mind, anyway-we’ll play on the conservative side and use all four runners mentioned.)

Race 6: One of the toughest races in the sequence to figure out. These routers are old pros but, in the latter part of their careers, have not won often. With that, I’m looking for a horse that will get the right trip. Figuring #2 Tizona and #4 DiLaurian are both sending, my top pick is #1 Pour On the Cole. He should receive a perfect, tracking trip. His last effort wasn’t bad: a runner up finish behind class dropper Ecologist. If Ecologist was in this race, he would be favored. (STRATEGY: I’ll be going deep in this race; although I think my top pick has a decent chance to take home the gold medal, the form of many of these horses is extremely inconsistent.)

Race 7: Another wide-open race. #3 Phantom Drop gets the nod. Most recently, he placed behind Our Expectation, the second choice on the morning line in Race 4. Our Expectation himself sports very good recent form. Phantom Drop’s two-back effort at this condition was solid, finishing as the runner up to Excessive Cat, a better than average horse for the level Phantom Drop also competes at today. #2 Sierra Melody gets class relief and, with that, also faces a much easier field. He makes the ticket. #6 Implicitly is the price horse: he cuts back from a route to a sprint and should be super fit. The last time he sprinted, 10 starts ago, he finished fourth beaten two lengths behind two next out winners in a strong starter allowance race. (STRATEGY: Going deep again. We’re using the top three picks along with #5 Cinderellas Prince and #7 Continental Union. I am all in on trying to beat 2-1 morning line favorite #2 Muay Thai, who was visually uninspiring last time out.)

Race 8: It’s time to take a stand. #4 A Dime for Me has gone off at under even money in her last six races at this condition. In four of those starts she lost, though a couple of unlucky losses were due to unlucky trips. Nonetheless, last time out she was simply second best to #6 Austrian Navy, who was making her first start off the claim for a trainer, Sammy Calvario, who sports an extremely high win percentage first off the claim. She is certainly eligible to put back-to-back winning races together. (STRATEGY: We are singling Austrian Navy. Let’s get lucky.)

Race 9: A contentious maiden heat ends our day. #4 Howdoyalikemenow was off slowly, sat well behind until the quarter pole, and came on with a strong finish at this level first time out. He is out of a broodmare who produces nothing but runners and, if he takes a step forward, may be able to pop at a price in lifetime start number two. #2 Cooperklimt is a first-time starter with Kentucky pedigree for a super jockey/trainer combo. He could be live. Ditto #6 Hot Chicks Only, a firster for a barn that does well right off the bat. #7 Gunnin for Gold showed speed and faded in two maiden special weight sprints. He drops in for a tag while freshening up for high percentage trainer Jack Steiner. (STRATEGY: We use all four runners in this finale.)


20-Cent Golden Pick 6 ($80)

R4: 2

R5: 1,2,4,6

R6: 1,2,4,6,7

R7: 2,3,5,6,7

R8: 6

R9: 2,3,6,7


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