There are no stakes races this week offering qualifying points toward the 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 4. However, there will be a barrage of them from March 23 through April 13.
Below are the remaining races with Kentucky Derby points up for grabs:
Date Race (Track)
03-23 Jeff Ruby (Turfway Park)
03-23 Louisiana Derby (Fair Grounds)
03-30 UAE Derby (Meydan Racecourse)
03-30 Florida Derby (Gulfstream Park)
03-30 Arkansas Derby (Oaklawn Park)
04-06 Wood Memorial (Aqueduct)
04-06 Blue Grass (Keeneland)
04-06 Santa Anita Derby (Santa Anita)
04-13 Lexington (Keeneland)
The stakes races above, with the exception of the Lexington, offer 100-50-25-15-10 points to the first five finishers. The Lexington will have Kentucky Derby points doled out in a 20-10-6-4-2 manner.
Meanwhile, in terms of the 2024 Kentucky Derby, a friend of mine emailed me last week to tell me what he thought after seeing that I ranked undefeated Japanese star and Saudi Derby winner Forever Young at No. 1 on my Top 10 for Xpressbet.com. Let’s just say my friend did not pull any punches.
“Forever Young? Are you drinking?” the email said. “You won’t find him with a search warrant in the Kentucky Derby. He has no chance. Saudi Derby knocked him out.”
I concede that as hard as Forever Young ran to get up in the very last jump to win the Group II Saudi Derby by a head on Feb. 24, there is a chance such a taxing effort might have knocked him out. We’ll just have to wait and see what he does on March 30 in the Group II UAE Derby to find out whether or not that’s the case.
My friend’s membership in the anti-Forever Young club notwithstanding, I am sticking with the Real Steel colt at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 until he runs in the UAE Derby. Frankly, the main reason is I am keeping him in the top spot is I’m just not all that enthused about any of this country’s 3-year-old males who aren’t named Nysos.
Speaking of Nysos, on Tuesday (March 11), Sue Finley of the Thoroughbred Daily News reported that Nysos will be out of training for one month due to what Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert characterized as a “minor” setback.
Nysos, undefeated in three career starts by a combined 26 3/4 lengths, will be “tack-walking for 30 days. No plans,” Baffert said in a text, according to Finley.
As for last Saturday’s Grade II Tampa Bay Derby, did that race cause me to rethink having Forever Young at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10? I must say, no, not at all.
For Xpressbet.com, I picked the Tampa Bay Derby this way:
1. Domestic Product
2. No More Time
3. Good Money
4. Grand Mo the First.
The order of finish turned out to be:
1. Domestic Product
2. No More Time
3. Grand Mo the First
4. Good Money.
Domestic Product came on in the stretch to prevail by a neck in a blanket finish. No More Time lost by only a head. Grand Mo the First was beaten by a neck. Good Money lost by three-quarters of a length.
Was the Tampa Bay Derby a strong race? I don’t believe so. I would say that this conclusion on my part is justified by the fact that the first four finishers each received a rather weak 82 Beyer Speed Figure.
After finishing second to unbeaten Hades in Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes, Domestic Product did get the job done in the Tampa Bay Derby. It’s to his credit that he won despite the race being delayed for more than 30 minutes because of a tote delay. It’s also admirable that Domestic Product managed to rally into a ridiculously slow pace (:25.25, :51.14, 1:16.21).
Yes, I believe it’s fair to say that Domestic Product is a nice colt going in the right direction. But do I think Forever Young could have won the Tampa Bay Derby? You bet I do, just as it’s my opinion that Forever Young could have won a number of the other 3-year-old graded stakes races that have been contested so far this year.
On March 2, Dornoch won Gulfstream Park’s Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes. His Beyer Speed Figure was just an 88. The race was severely depleted by the scratches of Locked (now out of training due to a knee injury), Speak Easy, Victory Avenue and Merit.
Do I think Forever Young could have won the Fountain of Youth? Yep.
On Feb. 24, Timberlake won Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes. He posted a 93 Beyer Speed Figure.
Do I think Forever Young could have won the Rebel? Yes, I do.
On Feb. 17, Sierra Leone won Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes. He recorded a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.
Do I think Forever Young could have won the Risen Star? I sure do.
I’m cognizant that my friend who emailed me to knock the 3-year-old at the top of my Kentucky Derby rankings is far from the only member of the anti-Forever Young club. I’ve heard a number of people say that there is no chance that they will be backing Forever Young in the Kentucky Derby. In most cases, the reason cited is the poor record by UAE Derby starters in the Kentucky Derby.
Granted, UAE starters are an abysmal 0 for 19 combined in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, the best Kentucky Derby finish by a horse to have started in the UAE is fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011.
Would I like it better if Forever Young’s final start before the Kentucky Derby came in a U.S. stakes races instead of in the UAE Derby? Yes.
But keep in mind what happened regarding a pair of Japanese colts last year. Did running in a U.S. stakes race instead of the UAE Derby result in a Kentucky Derby victory last year for Mandarin Hero? No. After Mandarin Hero lost the Santa Anita Derby by a scant nose, he was soundly defeated in the Kentucky Derby.
Derma Sotogake, a Japanese runner who did compete in the UAE Derby instead of in a U.S. stakes race, outran Mandarin Hero in the Kentucky Derby. Derma Sotogake finished sixth in the Run for the Roses, while Mandarin Hero ended up 12th.
Any way you slice it, the 0-for-19 record by UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby is dreadful. But the truth is that other than the Grade I Florida Derby and Grade I Santa Anita Derby, a number of U.S. stakes races do not exactly have a stellar record in recent years with regard to producing the Kentucky Derby winner.
For instance, Sierra Leone is widely considered to be the current Kentucky Derby favorite. The Grade I Blue Grass Stakes is scheduled to be his next start.
Street Sense finished second in the 2007 Blue Grass and went on to have his name inscribed on the list of Kentucky Derby winners. Since Street Sense, Blue Grass starters are a woeful 0 for 54 in the Kentucky Derby. The way I look at it, the 0 for 54 by Blue Grass starters in the Kentucky Derby since Street Sense is worse than the 0 for 19 by UAE starters.
What about the Wood Memorial? Funny Cide won the Wood in 2003 before capturing the Kentucky Derby. Since Funny Cide, Wood Memorial starters are 0 for 41 in the Kentucky Derby.
The Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby aren’t much better.
Funny Cide also was the last Louisiana Derby starter to win the Kentucky Derby. Since Funny Cide, only 2 of 55 Louisiana Derby starters have won the Kentucky Derby. Those two horses were Country House in 2019 and Mandaloun in 2021.
But it should be pointed out that while it’s true that both Country House and Mandaloun are official Kentucky Derby winners, neither crossed the finish line first in the race.
Country House’s Kentucky Derby victory came through the disqualification of Maximum Security for causing interference. Mandaloun’s Kentucky Derby win came via the disqualification of Medina Spirit, who tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day.
In other words, since Funny Cide, Louisiana Derby starters to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby are 0 for 55, which is more troubling to me than the 0-for-19 record of UAE starters.
What about the Arkansas Derby? Super Saver won both the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby in 2010. Since then, only 2 of the 37 Arkansas Derby starters have won the Kentucky Derby. Those two horses were American Pharoah in 2015 and the aforementioned Country House in 2019.
And so it is that since Super Saver, Arkansas Derby starters to cross the finish line first in the Kentucky Derby are 1 for 37.
All of which leads me to say the 0-for-19 record by UAE Derby starters in the Kentucky Derby really isn’t all that bad compared to the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby.
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10, which is status quo from last week:
1. Forever Young (pictured above)
2. Sierra Leone
3. Dornoch
4. Fierceness
5. Timberlake
6. Track Phantom
7. Hades
8. Mystik Dan
9. Deterministic
10. Born Noble
Bubbling Under My Top 10: Agate Road, Be You, Catching Freedom, Common Defense, Conquest Warrior, Domestic Product, El Grande O, Encino, Epic Ride, Good Money, Grand Mo the First, Hall of Fame, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Just Steel, Le Dom Bro, Liberal Arts, Nash, No More Time, Northern Flame, Pandagate, Ramjet, Real Macho, Resilience, Scatify, Snead, Stronghold, The Wine Steward, Top Conor, Tuscan Gold, Tuscan Sky, Uncle Heavy and Victory Avenue.
FIRST DERBY STRIKES OF 2024
The purpose of my Derby Strikes System, which I developed in 1999, is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
Various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby once were quite popular. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. However, through the years, many of the “Derby rules” were broken, which caused their popularity to wane.
I believe that it’s the marriage of the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
It’s not until a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes.
Thus, inasmuch as trainer Chad Brown has said the plan is for Domestic Product to race once more before the Kentucky Derby, the colt’s number of strikes can’t yet be ascertained.
However, Jose Francisco D’Angelo, who trains Tampa Bay Derby runner-up No More Time, has indicated that the Not That Time colt is likely to make his next start in the Kentucky Derby.
“I think it’s better to go straight there and not run in between,” D’Angelo said to Daily Racing Form’s David Grening. “So many things can happen in between. It’s not the final decision, but to me it sounds like a plan right now.”
Assuming the Kentucky Derby is indeed next for No More Time, I can go ahead and determine his number strikes. And if he does run again before May 4, his number of strikes then will be recalculated.
No More Time gets two strikes. One strike comes in Category 4 because he did not improve or at least hold his position in the final furlong in both of his final two starts before the Kentucky Derby. In the Tampa Bay Derby, No More Time had the lead a furlong out, then finished second.
The other strike for No More Time comes in Category 5. He gets a strike in this category because he has not finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race.
Even though Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes, history shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
One of Mage’s strikes was because he had not won a graded stakes race. Another of Mage’s strikes was for getting passed in the final furlong of the Florida Derby. Mage’s third strike was for not having raced as a 2-year-old.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Mage is the first Kentucky Derby winner with three strikes.
Mine That Bird in 2009 had four strikes (Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8).
I’ve often said I consider Category 3 to be one of the more important categories. In order to avoid a strike, a horse must have been first or second with a furlong left to run in either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby. This category focuses on finding a 3-year-old who has a very good chance to be in a prime position to win the roses a furlong out. That’s because 57 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong left to go in this coveted event on the Churchill Downs oval.
Mage was second a furlong out last year while on his way to a Kentucky Derby triumph.
Sierra Leone was fourth with a furlong left to run when he won the Risen Star. That means he needs to be first or second a furlong out in his next race in order to avoid getting a strike in Category 3.
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Many years after I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999, racing enthusiast Ryan Stillman suggested that I should take a look at the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners prior to 1999. Again, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I could not go further back than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. The reason for that, as mentioned earlier, two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But as mentioned earlier, Medina Spirit was DQ’d after his post-race test showed the presence of betamethasone.
The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING
Horseplayers can make a bet or two or more this week in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).
Additionally, this year’s only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager is being offered this week. Both the Derby and Oaks have win and exacta wagering available, plus there is a double linking the Derby and Oaks.
KDFW Pool 5 wagering opens on Friday (March 15) at noon ET and concludes Sunday (March 17) at 6 p.m. ET.
When participating in future wagering, always remember there are no refunds.
In Pool 5 of the KDFW last year, Mage closed at 75-1. His odds were 15-1 when victorious on race day.
Mike Battaglia has pegged Risen Star winner Sierra Leone as the 5-1 morning-line favorite in this week’s KDFW Pool 5.
I’ll probably put a bit more money on Forever Young in Pool 5 if stays around his morning-line odds of 20-1. I already have a pretty sizable wager riding on him at 21-1 in Pool 4. If he does win the UAE Derby, I expect Forever Young to be a much shorter price than 20-1 on the day of the Kentucky Derby.
There is another reason I will do quite well wagering-wise if Forever Young wins the Kentucky Derby. When I made a large bet on the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings from the 2021 foal crop” option in both Pools 1 and 2 of the KDFW, Forever Young was one of the horses in that “all others” option in both pools.
I also might put a few bucks on Just a Touch in KDFW Pool 5 if he stays in the vicinity of his 30-1 morning line. Just a Touch has a win and a second from two career starts. Both times he raced on a wet track. What if Just a Touch is better on a dry track?
Just a Touch did not race as a 2-year-old, but neither did his sire, 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.
Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 5 of the 2024 KDFW:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Agate Road (40-1)
2. Be You (90-1)
3. Born Noble (80-1)
4. Catching Freedom (30-1)
5. Common Defense (30-1)
6. Conquest Warrior (25-1)
7. Corporate Power (50-1)
8. Deterministic (20-1)
9. Domestic Product (30-1)
10. Dornoch (12-1)
11. El Grande O (90-1)
12. Encino (50-1)
13. Endlessly (50-1)
14. Epic Ride (80-1)
15. Fierceness (12-1)
16. Forever Young (20-1)
17. Hades (30-1)
18. Hall of Fame (80-1)
19. Honor Marie (40-1)
20. Just a Touch (30-1)
21. Just Steel (80-1)
22. Lat Long (80-1)
23. Le Dom Bro (80-1)
24. Liberal Arts (40-1)
25. Mystik Dan (20-1)
26. Nash (50-1)
27. No More Time (50-1)
28. Resilience (50-1)
29. Seize the Grey (90-1)
30. Sierre Leone (5-1)
31. Stronghold (80-1)
32. The Wine Steward (60-1)
33. Timberlake (8-1)
34. Time for Truth (90-1)
35. Top Conor (90-1)
36. Track Phantom (25-1)
37. Tuscan Gold (80-1)
38. Tuscan Sky (30-1)
39. Uncle Heavy (80-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Olds (15-1)
There will be one more KDFW this year. Pool 6 wagering will be available April 4-6.
KENTUCKY OAKS FUTURE WAGERING
Tarifa, winner of Fair Grounds’ Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes on Feb. 17 for trainer Brad Cox, is the 8-1 morning-line favorite in this week’s Kentucky Oaks Future Wager.
I definitely will be putting money on Ways and Means, though I must admit that I’m disappointed she isn’t a bigger price than 15-1 on the morning line.
Ways and Means’ 12 3/4-length debut victory at Saratoga last year on Aug. 6 for trainer Chad Brown was nothing less than scintillating.
“Very rare, maybe not ever, have I ever given instructions, ‘Don’t let the horse run all the way to the wire.’ I warned [Flavien Prat] if she makes the front turning for home, don’t let her run,” the Daily Racing Form’s David Grening quoted Brown as saying. “There’s just too much stuff ahead of us. I’ve been doing it long enough to know what I have.”
Immediately following Ways and Means’ debut victory, Seth Klaravich said the filly “is very, very special,” adding that her performance “blew us away.” Klaravich bred and owns the daughter of multiple Grade I winner Practical Joke. Domestic Product, who won last Saturday’s Tampa Bay Derby for Klaravich and trainer Chad Brown, also is by Practical Joke.
Not surprisingly, after Ways and Means kicked off her racing career in spectacular fashion, she was pounded down to 2-5 favoritism in Saratoga’s Grade I Spinaway Stakes on Sept. 3. She finished second to Brightwork.
Ways and Means came within a half-length of winning that Grade I race despite stumbling badly on the backstretch when appearing to clip heels.
On Sept. 30, Daily Racing Form’s David Grening reported that Ways and Means came out of the Spinaway with an injury and would not race again in 2023.
“She was lame right after the race, actually,” Brown said to Grening. “She took a very, very scary step at full speed. It was very unfortunate. I knew when it happened that it was probably not going to be good.”
A chip subsequently was removed from an ankle, according to Brown.
Ways and Means has been working steadily at Florida’s Payson Park. I can’t help being excited as to what we might see from Ways and Means in 2024.
In addition to Tarifa, Cox conditions Impel, who is two for two after winning an Oaklawn Park allowance/optional claiming contest by 8 1/2 lengths on March 3. If it looks like she is going to be 10-1 or higher in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, I’ll go ahead and put some money on her.
I sure am glad that I bet $100 on Pretty Mischievous in the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager last year, even though the 10-1 price I got on her with my future wager was only the same as her 10-1 odds on race day when she won the Oaks.
Below are the morning-line odds for what will be the only 2024 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. All Things Go (99-1)
2. Alpine Princess (60-1)
3. Band of Gold (80-1)
4. Candied (15-1)
5. Carmelina (50-1)
6. Denim and Pearls (80-1)
7. Fiona’s Magic (40-1)
8. Ghalia Princess (90-1)
9. Gin Gin (90-1)
10. Gun Song (60-1)
11. Halina’s Forte (80-1)
12. Impel (10-1)
13. Into Champagne (50-1)
14. Intricate (20-1)
15. Jody’s Pride (15-1)
16. Just F Y I (12-1)
17. Kopion (12-1)
18. Lemon Muffin (50-1)
19. Leslie’s Rose (15-1)
20. Life Talk (30-1)
21. Maxisuperfly (99-1)
22. Midsummer March (99-1)
23. My Mane Squeeze (80-1)
24. Neom Beach (99-1)
25. Our Pretty Woman (40-1)
26. Perfect Shot (60-1)
27. Power Squeeze (60-1)
28. Pretty Ana (90-1)
29. Scalable (90-1)
30. She’s a Tempest (80-1)
31. Sistina Chapel (90-1)
32. Tapit Jenaillie (99-1)
33. Tarifa (8-1)
34. Thorpedo Anna (30-1)
35. Ultimate Authority (80-1)
36. V V’s Dream (50-1)
37. Ways and Means (15-1)
38. West Omaha (40-1)
39. West Sunset (40-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies (
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 313 Senor Buscador (27)
2. 238 Saudi Crown
3. 222 National Treasure (2)
4. 172 Newgate
5. 157 Idiomatic (2)
6. 144 White Abarrio
7. 84 Warm Heart
8. 69 Didia
9. 51 Speed Boat Beach
10. 39 Newgrange
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 295 Nysos (26)
2. 271 Sierra Leone (5)
3. 216 Timberlake (1)
4. 198 Dornoch
5. 135 Track Phantom
6. 120 Muth
7. 80 Hades
8. 78 Fierceness
9. 75 Mystik Dan
10. 55 Deterministic
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