Three important events vis-a-vis the 2023 Kentucky Derby will be contested this Saturday (April 8). They are the Grade I Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, Grade I Blue Grass Stakes and Grade II Wood Memorial. The first five horses across the finish line in these three 1 1/8-mile races will earn 100-40-30-20-10 points toward the 1 1/4-mile classic on May 6.
Only one race with Kentucky Derby points up for grabs will remain after this week. That will be the Grade III Lexington Stakes on April 15. Only 20-8-6-4-2 points will go to the first five finishers in the Lexington.
In terms of my selections for Xpressbet.com this week, I will begin with the Santa Anita Derby, then go to Keeneland’s Blue Grass, then move on to Aqueduct’s Wood Memorial.
To be perfectly candid, it’s not all that easy for me to be objective regarding the Santa Anita Derby. That’s because I do have a vested interest in Practical Move. On Feb. 12, I made a $200 future bet on him at odds of 83-1, which means a profit of nearly $17,000 if he wins the Kentucky Derby.
But when it comes to handicapping and betting, I honestly believe that I’m pretty good at being able to look at a race as objectively as humanly possible. The same goes for sports. I am a Lakers fan, a Dodgers fan and a Rams fan. But when it comes to betting on sports in Las Vegas, my fandom will not stop me from making a wager against them if, looking at it as objectively as I can, I believe that’s the right way to go in order to make money.
All of that being said, I believe Practical Move is the right move to make when deciding who to pick on top in the Santa Anita Derby.
A similar performance to the one seen from Practical Move in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 4 will set the bar pretty high for anyone to beat him in Santa Anita Derby. And if Practical Move runs even better this time, which I do not rule out as a possibility, he is going to be extremely difficult to prevent from posing for pictures in Santa Anita’s Runhappy winner’s circle on Saturday.
Practical Move won the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe pretty convincingly by 2 1/2 lengths at odds of 4-1 while making his 2023 debut on March 4 for trainer Tim Yakteen.
“Even though he was returning from a layoff and, like so many others, had his training interrupted by the spate of rainy weather recently in Southern California, Practical Move was even much farther in front when galloping out after the finish,” I wrote in my San Felipe recap for Xpressbet.com.
Practical Move’s final time in the San Felipe was 1:42.01. That clocking was quite good, but it was especially praiseworthy in the context of his layoff.
Consider the following when comparing Practical Move to other Kentucky Derby candidates.
“Practical Move owns the two fastest times among the 16 points-earning [Kentucky] Derby qualifying stakes run at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23,” T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News wrote this week. “He ran 1:41.65 when winning the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 when he tallied in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes. For perspective, no other horses in that series of stakes clocked below 1:43.06.”
Practical Move brings an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern into the Santa Anita Derby. In his last four starts, his Beyers have been 73, 82, 88, then 100 in the San Felipe.
Geaux Rocket Ride and Skinner, who finished two-three to Practical Move in the San Felipe, certainly merit respect in the Santa Anita Derby. So does National Treasure.
Trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella, Geaux Rocket Ride acquitted himself well as the San Felipe runner-up in that it was just his second lifetime start and his first race around two turns. The Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt won a six-furlong maiden special weight race by 5 3/4 lengths on Jan. 29 at Santa Anita (92 Beyer) in his lone outing before the San Felipe.
Watch out for Skinner. Trainer John Shirreffs, he of Zenyatta fame and conditioner of 2005 Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo, has been high on Skinner from the get-go. That’s plainly evident inasmuch as Shirreffs ran the Kentucky-bred Curlin colt in two Grade I races last year as a maiden.
Skinner took a quantum leap Beyer-wise from his three races last year (61, 79, 60) when he won his 2023 debut by 3 1/4 lengths against maidens in a one-mile contest at Santa Anita on Feb. 12. His maiden triumph produced a 95 Beyer, followed by a 94 in the San Felipe, which he lost by 3 3/4 lengths.
Ninth early in the San Felipe, Skinner made a good run to loom a danger coming into the stretch, then lacked the necessary additional punch in the lane. But his late kick might have been blunted to some extent on that occasion by the fact that he was returning rather quickly off his maiden score. Now he’s had five weeks between the San Felipe and this race.
National Treasure was one of a number of horses transferred from Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert to Yakteen prior to a Feb. 28 deadline. That made the Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt eligible to earn Kentucky Derby points, which he could not do when trained by Baffert because of the Medina Spirit’s disqualification after finishing first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. Medina Spirit tested positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.
After Medina Spirit’s disqualification, Churchill Downs suspended Baffert from running horses in the Kentucky Derby last year and this year. Additionally, no Kentucky Derby points are awarded to any horse trained by an individual who is suspended from racing in the Kentucky Derby.
National Treasure was good enough to finish third to Forte and Cave Rock in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year.
In his first start this year, National Treasure ran third as a 3-5 favorite in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes on Jan. 8. He then was forced to miss the San Felipe because of a foot issue.
National Treasure appears to have trained up to the Santa Anita Derby in splendid fashion to indicate he might have a big say in the outcome.
The X-factor in the Santa Anita Derby is Japanese invader Mandarin Hero. How good is he? Who knows?
Yes, Mandarin Hero has posted four wins and a second from five career starts. But bear in mind he has not raced at any of Japan’s major tracks. Still, considering how horses from Japan have had so much success in significant races on the world stage in recent years, including a pair of victories at the 2021 Breeders’ Cup held at Del Mar, it would seem unwise to cavalierly dismiss Mandarin Hero in the Santa Anita Derby.
As an example of Japan’s recent prowess, horses from that country finished 1-2-3-4 in Dubai’s UAE Derby (Derma Sotogake, Dura Erede, Continuar and Perriere).
My selections for the Santa Anita Derby are below:
1. Practical Move
2. Geaux Rocket Ride
3. National Treasure
4. Skinner
BLUE GRASS SELECTIONS
Tapit Trice, who rallied from 11th to win the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby by two lengths in his most recent appearance under silks on March 11, heads a field of 11 entered in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.
I’m going to take a shot and try to beat Tapit Trice with Verifying. In his most recent start, Verifying finished fourth as the 3-2 favorite in Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25. I think he’s capable of doing a lot better than that.
When Veryifying won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming affair by 5 1/4 lengths at Oaklawn on Jan. 14, he recorded a 97 Beyer Speed Figure. This is the top figure in the Blue Grass field.
Tapit Trice’s best Beyer to date was his 92 when he won a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race by eight lengths at Gulfstream on Feb. 4. He received an 88 Beyer when he won the Tampa Bay Derby.
My selections for the Blue Grass Stakes are below:
1. Verifying
2. Tapit Trice
3. Raise Cain
4. Blazing Sevens
WOOD MEMORIAL SELECTIONS
Likely favorite Hit Show had the misfortune of drawing the outside post when 13 were entered in Saturday’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.
Forte managed to win the Florida Derby despite breaking from post 11. Can Hit Show get the job done in the Wood despite starting from post 13?
Clear the Air has been entered in both the Wood and Blue Grass. It’s possible that Hit Show will be helped a little in the Wood and at least move in one slot to post 12 if Clear the Air goes in the Blue Grass, as expected.
Normally I don’t let post position affect the way I pick a race all that much. I was all set to pick Hit Show on top in the Wood. But I just don’t trust him enough from an outer post.
I am picking Slip Mahoney to win the Wood. He closed from far back to finish second in Aqueduct’s Grade III Gotham Stakes on a muddy track March 4. The Kentucky-bred Arrogate colt did lose the Gotham by 7 1/2 lengths to Raise Cain (who is entered in Saturday’s Blue Grass), but it appears to me that Slip Mahoney is going to relish going a furlong farther in the Wood.
I certainly won’t be surprised if Hit Show does win in spite of his post position. Victorious in three of four career starts, the Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt registered a dominant 5 1/2-length victory in Aqueduct’s Grade III Withers Stakes at the same 1 1/8-mile trip as the Wood Memorial.
My selections for the Blue Grass Stakes are below:
1. Slip Mahoney
2. Hit Show
3. Arctic Arrogance
4. Classic Catch
THIS WEEK’S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
Practical Move is No. 1 again this week on my Kentucky Derby Top 10. Obviously, what he does in this week’s Santa Anita Derby is going to determine whether or not he still is No. 1 next week.
Forte holds onto the No. 2 spot this week following his come-from-behind one-length victory in Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Florida Derby last Saturday (April 1).
With a little more than a sixteenth of a mile to go, when track announcer Peter Aiello said “Forte better hurry up,” I thought the 1-5 favorite was going to get beat. But Forte overtook Mage in the final sixteenth to prevail.
Did Forte finally get into high gear in the final sixteenth? Or did he benefit from lightly raced and an off-slowly Mage understandably weakening a bit late after rushing past rivals on the far turn to reach the front at the head of the lane?
I think it was a combination of both.
Forte completed his 1 1/8-mile journey in 1:49.37. Or did he? Nope. Once again a race was incorrectly timed, a far too common occurrence in 2023. As I’ve said before, a rover on Mars can be controlled all the way from Earth, how in the world can the comparatively simple task of timing a horse race on this planet be so difficult to get right?
Equibase issued the following statement Sunday (April 2) via Twitter:
“The final time for Saturday’s Curlin Florida Derby, presented by Hill ‘N’ Dale Farms at Xalapa has been adjusted after the finish beam may have been inadvertently tripped before the horses reached the wire. The previous time of 1:48:51 has been updated to 1:49:37 and the official chart has been updated to reflect the new time. Additionally, the final eighth time was adjusted from :12.16 to :13.02.”
BloodHorse’s Corrie McCroskey reported that the Florida Derby timing error was found by the Beyer Speed Figure team in the belief the final time was too fast.
“TimeformUS’s Craig Milkowski says he received a message from the Daily Racing Form’s David Aragona, who first brought the issue to his attention,” McCroskey wrote. “From there, Milkowski worked with NBC Sports’ Randy Moss to retime the race, where he discovered the discrepancy. After review, the colt’s Beyer was lowered from 98 to 95.”
As mentioned earlier, Practical Move’s Beyer Speed Figures are an upward trajectory. This is not the case with Forte.
“Forte registered a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he regressed to a 98 when winning the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes,” Thornton wrote this week for the TDN. “That number dipped again, to 95, in the Florida Derby. If you’re an improving divisional champion and formidable [Kentucky] Derby favorite, those Beyers should be going in the opposite direction.”
Not only are Forte’s Beyers going in the wrong direction, I do not find it encouraging that jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. was compelled to ride him so aggressively from the quarter pole to the finish of the Florida Derby.
Another concern I have with Forte is he gets a strike in my Derby Strikes System in Category 3. My Derby Strikes System is explained in more detail later in this blog.
In order to avoid a strike in Category 3, a horse needs to have been first or second at the eighth pole in both of his or her final two starts prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Forte was third at the eighth pole before winning Gulfstream’s Grade II Fountain of Youth at 1 1/16 miles on March 4. In the Florida Derby, he was fifth at the eighth pole.
The reason I consider Category 3 to be one of the most important categories in my Derby Strikes System is its purpose is to try and spot those horses who have a good chance to be either first or second with a furlong to go in the Kentucky Derby. That’s because 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong left to run.
In the wake of Angel of Empire’s sparkling come-from-behind 4 1/4-length victory in Oaklawn Park’s Grade I Arkansas Derby last Saturday (April 1), he climbs from No. 7 to No. 4 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week.
Angel of Empire was my top pick for Xpressbet.com in the Arkansas Derby. He paid $11.40 for each $2 win wager.
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:
1. Practical Move
2. Forte
3. Kingsbarns
4. Angel of Empire
5. Tapit Trice
6. Geaux Rocket Ride
7. Skinner
8. Hit Show
9. Derma Sotogake
10. Two Phil’s
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
In 1999, I developed my Derby Strikes System (DSS). Its purpose is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
Back in the day, various “rules” for the Kentucky Derby were quite popular. A “Derby rule” meant that a horse needed to have done this or that, or not done this or that, in order to win the Kentucky Derby. But many of the “Derby rules” were broken through the years, causing their popularity to wane.
I think it’s the marriage of both the TACTICAL with the HISTORICAL that makes the Derby Strikes System better than any single “Derby rule.”
A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, it made the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
It’s when a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes in the DSS.
The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
History shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. According to the DSS, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) have had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.
The eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes were Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Only one horse, Mine That Bird in 2009, has had more than two strikes. He had four.
Red Route Run finished sixth in this year’s Arkansas Derby. If he starts in the year’s Kentucky Derby, he will do so with four strikes, a la Mine That Bird.
The strikes for a number of Kentucky Derby candidates who are scheduled to make their next start in the Run for Roses are listed below:
ZERO STRIKES
Angel of Empire
Derma Sotogake
ONE STRIKE
Disarm (Category 2)
Forte (Category 3)
Kingsbarns (Category 7)
Reincarnate (Category 4)
Rocket Can (Category 5)
Two Phil’s (Category 4)
Wild On Ice (Category 8)
TWO STRIKES
Cyclone Mischief (Categories 2 and 4)
Jace’s Road (Categories 2 and 4)
THREE STRIKES
Continuar (Categories 2, 3 and 4)
King Russell (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
Mage (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
FOUR STRIKES
Red Route One (Categories 2, 3, 5 and 6)
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. That’s because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.
The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010 and Mandaloun in 2021, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882 and Justify in 2018. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 1 for 67 in the Kentucky Derby through 2022. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
FORTE FAVORED IN KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGER
Last Saturday (April 1), shortly before Forte captured the Florida Derby, he closed as the 5-2 favorite in Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW). This was the finale in the series of future wagering pools offered by Churchill Downs in advance of the 2023 Run for the Roses.
Forte ended up as the favorite among individual horses in Pool 2, Pool 3, Pool 4, Pool 5 and Pool 6. Extra Anjeo, a dazzling 9 1/2-length winner in his career debut last Oct. 13 at Keeneland, was the favorite in KDFW Pool 1 on Nov. 3.
Unfortunately for Extra Anejo, he was taken out of training after a Nov. 15 workout at Churchill Downs. The Into Mischief colt required surgery for the removal of a chip in a hind ankle. He finally returned to the work tab with a four-furlong Fair Grounds breeze in :52.20 on March 19. That was followed by a four-furlong workout in :51.00 there on March 25.
The individual favorites in Pool 1 through Pool 6 of the KDFW are listed below:
12-1 Extra Anejo (Pool 1 on Nov. 3)
10-1 Forte (Pool 2 on Nov. 27)
7-1 Forte (Pool 3 on Jan. 22)
8-1 Forte (Pool 4 on Feb. 12)
3-1 Forte (Pool 5 on March 12)
5-2 Forte (Pool 6 on April 1).
I wrote for Xpressbet.com last week that I thought National Treasure would be worth betting in KDFW Pool 6, “as long as he actually goes off in the neighborhood of 50-1.” Inasmuch as he closed at 44-1, I did indeed put some money on him. It was the only wager I made in Pool 6.
As mentioned earlier, I put $200 on Practical Move at 83-1 in Pool 4 on Feb. 12 for a possible profit of almost $17,000. Those 83-1 odds on Feb. 12 were monstrously bigger than the 14-1 he closed at last Saturday in Pool 6.
Also in Pool 4 on Feb. 12, I bet on Kingsbarns at 35-1 for a possible profit of $7,000. He went on to win the Louisiana Derby. His 35-1 price on Feb. 12 was much better than the 11-1 he closed at last Saturday in Pool 6.
My only other bet in Pool 4 was on Geaux Rocket Ride at 25-1 for a possible profit of $5,000. He subsequently ran second to Practical Move in the San Felipe. His 25-1 price on Feb. 12 actually was lower than the 33-1 he closed at last Saturday in Pool 6. But the 33-1 price was not high enough for me to put any more money on him.
Below are the final odds reported by Churchill Downs last Saturday (April 1) for Pool 6 of the 2023 KDFW:
5-2 Forte
11-1 Kingsbarns
11-1 Tapit Trice
13-1 Derma Sotogake
14-1 Practical Move
17-1 All Other 3-Year-Olds
21-1 Two Phil’s
24-1 Red Route One
24-1 Reincarnate
29-1 Angel of Empire
29-1 Confidence Game
30-1 Hit Show
32-1 Rocket Can
33-1 Disarm
33-1 Geaux Rocket Ride
38-1 Two Eagles River
44-1 National Treasure
46-1 Blazing Sevens
46-1 Mage
49-1 Instant Coffee
49-1 Skinner
50-1 Verifying
54-1 Continuar
58-1 Fort Bragg
81-1 Raise Cain
88-1 Cyclone Mischief
99-1 Mandarin Hero
100-1 Bourbon Bash
111-1 Dubyuhnell
113-1 Sun Thunder
118-1 Jace’s Road
130-1 Slip Mahoney
143-1 Dreamlike
165-1 Arctic Arrogance
169-1 Classic Car Wash
190-1 Wild On Ice
212-1 Mendelssohns March
238-1 I Don’t Get It
299-1 Shadow Dragon
404-1 Hayes Strike
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 338 Elite Power (25)
2. 264 Stilleto Boy (3)
3. 252 Art Collector (6)
4. 190 West Will Power (1)
5. 167 Secret Oath (1)
6. 150 Last Samurai (1)
7. 128 Cody’s Wish
8. 121 Country Grammer (1)
9. 62 Nest
10. 61 Defunded
PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGER TO BE OFFERED
The Maryland Jockey Club earned racing commission approval this week for a pari-mutuel future win wager on the May 20 Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. More details on the wager will be made available by 1/ST in the coming days. The new wager will begin on April 28 and close on May 6 prior to the running of the Kentucky Derby that same day.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 387 Forte (37)
2. 300 Angel of Empire
3. 280 Practical Move (1)
3. 244 Tapit Trice
5. 230 Kingsbarns (1)
6. 126 Two Phil’s
7. 103 Confidence Game
8. 65 Derma Sotogake
8. 65 Hit Show
10. 30 Geaux Rocket Ride
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