I am really looking forward to seeing what happens in the Grade II Risen Star Stakes this Saturday (Feb. 17) at New Orleans’ venerable Fair Grounds. The 1 1/8-mile affair, in my opinion, has attracted the best field of 3-year-olds assembled for a graded stakes race so far this year.
From the rail out, the dozen entrants are Tizzy Indy (50-1 on the morning line), Awesome Ruta (30-1), Honor Marie (6-1), Sierra Leone (4-1), Moonlight (12-1), Real Men Violin (8-1), Hall of Fame (6-1), Catching Freedom (5-1), Cardinale (12-1), Resilience (12-1), Track Phantom (7-2) and Bee Dancer (20-1).
This race is named in honor of the Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old male of 1988. A son of the great Secretariat, Risen Star won eight of 11 lifetime starts. After finishing third in the Kentucky Derby won by the filly Winning Colors, Risin Star won the Preakness Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths and Belmont Stakes by 14 3/4 lengths. Winning Colors finished third in the Preakness and sixth in the Belmont.
Below are my Risen Star Stakes selections:
1. Sierra Leone (pictured above, left)
2. Hall of Fame
3. Track Phantom
4. Honor Marie
Perhaps Sierra Leone isn’t going to win this race. After all, he is returning from a layoff and has much bigger fish to fry on down the road. But I was too impressed by his Remsen Stakes performance in defeat not to put this $2.3 million auction purchase on top when making my Risen Star selections.
While Track Phantom has been installed as the 7-2 favorite on the Risen Star morning line, I think there is a very good chance that Sierra Leone will be the betting choice when the sophomores break from the starting gate.
Trained by Chad Brown, Sierra Leone came from off the pace to win a one-mile maiden race by 1 1/4 lengths when unveiled on Nov. 4 at Aqueduct. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt then narrowly lost the Grade II Remsen at 1 1/8 miles on Dec. 2.
Far back on the muddy track when last early in the field of 10, Sierra Leone ran huge to lose the Remsen by a scant nose. His Beyer Speed Figure soared to a 91 after recording just a 71 in his first race.
Sierra Leone is adding blinkers for the Risen Star.
It is rather unusual for such a highly colt to keep getting a new jockey. Manny Franco rode Sierra Leone in his first race. Jose Ortiz was aboard in the colt’s second start. This time Tyler Gaffalione will be the pilot.
I was tempted to make $1.4 million auction purchase Hall of Fame my top choice in the Risen Star off his 10 1/4-length maiden victory in a Fair Grounds maiden race on Jan. 20. He had finished second at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26 in his only previous start.
Hall of Fame, like Sierra Leone, is a Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt. Steve Asmussen trains Hall of Fame.
How big was Hall of Fame’s maiden victory? He completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:44.27, a clocking that was quite a bit faster than Track Phantom’s final time of 1:44.73 that same day when winning the Grade III Lecomte Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths.
Hall of Fame’s Beyer Speed Figure in his maiden win was a 94, compared to Track Phantom’s 90 in the Lecomte.
The Thoro-Graph number for Hall of Fame’s maiden victory was a 5, compared to Track Phantom’s 6 in the Lecomte.
While I consider Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior to the Beyers. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
Asmussen (inducted into racing’s Hall of Fame in 2016) trains Track Phantom. The Kentucky-bred Quality Road colt, a $500,000 auction purchase, has reeled off three consecutive victories. Track Phantom won a maiden race at Churchill on Nov. 25. That was followed by back-to-back Fair Grounds wins in the Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 23 and Grade III Lecomte Stakes on Jan. 20.
Track Phantom sports an improving Beyer Speed Figure pattern: 74, 81, 88, 89 and 90 going into the Risen Star.
Honor Marie likewise has a Beyer pattern that’s going in the right direction: 71, 81 and 92. That 92 figure was recorded in his last start, a come-from-behind two-length win in Churchill’s Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 25. Whit Beckman trains the Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt.
“For those not familiar with Beckman, he came up under Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown,” Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote this week.
Haskin has Honor Marie ranked No. 3 in his latest Derby Rankings, below only No. 1 Fierceness and No. 2 Sierra Leone.
Beckman “worked with such top-class horses as Uncle Mo, Quality Road, Stay Thirsty, Super Saver, Princess of Sylmar, and his favorite Eskendereya for Pletcher,” Haskin wrote, “and Good Magic, Bricks and Mortar, Rushing Fall, Goodnight Olive, Sister Charlie, and his favorite Cloud Computing for Brown.”
SUNLAND PARK DERBY SELECTIONS
The Grade III Sunland Park Derby, which also will be contested this Saturday, has drawn a field of eight to do battle at 1 1/16 miles.
The 5-2 morning-line favorite is Southern California shipper Stronghold, a colt by 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper.
From the rail out, the Sunland Park Derby field consists of No Trouble (10-1 on the morning line), Surroundedbyangels (12-1), Curlin’s Kaos (5-1), Lucky Jeremy (4-1), Stronghold (5-2), Alotaluck (6-1), Da Ringo (20-1) and Informed Patriot (3-1).
Stronghold, trained by Phil D’Amato, is making his initial 2024 start this Saturday.
On Nov. 19 when making his stakes debut, Stronghold finished a distant second to budding superstar Nysos in Del Mar’s Grade III Bob Hope Stakes at seven furlongs.
After Stronghold’s runner-up effort in the Bob Hope, he again had to settle for second, though this time he got much closer to victory. He lost the Grade III Los Alamitos Futurity by a half-length to Wynstock on Dec. 16.
Below are my Sunland Park Derby selections:
1. Stronghold
2. Informed Patriot
3. Curlin’s Kaos
4. Lucky Jeremy
KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week is the same as it was last week. I’m thinking that there is a good chance whoever wins the Risen Star will take over the top spot next week.
Below is my Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week:
1. Fierceness
2. Hades
3. Mystik Dan
4. Locked
5. Sierra Leone
6. Dornoch
7. Hall of Fame
8. Track Phantom
9. Timberlake
10. Born Noble
Bubbling Under My Top 10: Book’ em Danno, Catching Freedom, Conquest Warrior, Domestic Product, El Grande O, Forever Young, Honor Marie, Just a Touch, Liberal Arts, Lightline, Nash, Just Steel, Real Macho, Real Men Violin, Snead, Speak Easy, Stretch Ride, The Wine Steward, Tuscan Gold, Tuscan Sky, Timberlake, Uncle Heavy and Victory Avenue.
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING
Grade I Locked has been tabbed as the 10-1 morning-line favorite among 39 individual horses in Pool 4 of the Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which opens for betting this week at noon ET Friday (Feb. 16) and closes at 6 p.m. ET Sunday (Feb. 18).
The 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby will be run on May 4.
Locked, trained by Todd Pletcher, had to miss the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs last Saturday (Feb. 10) after spiking a temperature. The Kentucky-bred Gun Runner colt won last year’s Grade I Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland prior to finishing third to Fierceness and Muth in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita on Nov. 3. Locked has not raced since the Breeders’ Cup.
BC Juvenile winner Fierceness is the 12-1 second choice on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line. The Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2023 finished third as the 1-5 favorite while making his 2024 debut in Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes on Feb. 3 for Pletcher.
Holy Bull winner Hades is 30-1 on the KDFW Pool 4 morning line. Holy Bull runner-up Domestic Product is listed at 60-1.
The belief here is that you generally should be trying to find a horse or horses at generous odds, not a horse like Locked at odds of 10-1 or thereabouts. Remember, the KDFW has no refunds.
Mage’s closing price in KDFW Pool 4 last year was 48-1. He would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. His odds on race day were 15-1.
I’m going to take a look at putting a small wager on the horses below if their prices remain anywhere close to what they are listed at on the morning line:
--Forever Young at 40-1. Undefeated and untested in three starts in Japan last year, he is expected to make his first 2024 start in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby on Feb. 24. How good is Forever Young? I think he might be as good as, or possible better than, Derma Sotogake, who as a 3-year-old last year finished second to White Abarrio in the Grade I BC Classic.
--Hades at 30-1. He has not tasted defeat in three career starts. With a perfect record and a win in the Holy Bull when defeating last year’s 2-year-old male champion, we really don’t know how good Hades is at this point.
--Mystik Dan at 20-1. While many attribute his eight-length victory in the Grade III Southwest Stakes to an inside bias and/or a muddy track, I was impressed by him visually and by his 101 Beyer Speed Figure. I’m not interested in betting him if he’s lower than 20-1. But I plan to go ahead and make a small bet on him at 20-1 or higher.
--Timberlake at 30-1. He recorded a sharp five-furlong Fair Grounds workout in a bullet :59.40 on Feb. 10. Winner of the Grade I Champagne Stakes on a sloppy track before finishing fourth in the Grade I BC Juvenile, he is targeting Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 24 to kick off his 2024 campaign. I’m hoping he stays around 30-1 in KDFW Pool 4.
--Tuscan Gold at 50-1. In Tuscan Gold’s lone start as a 2-year-old, he ran fourth at first asking in a one-mile maiden race won by Risen Star Stakes contender Sierra Leone at Aqueduct on Nov. 4. In his 3-year-old debut, Tuscan Sky won a 1 1/16-mile maiden race by 6 1/4 lengths at Gulfstream Park on Jan 31.
Before you make any bets in Pool 4 this week, you probably should monitor what happens in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Risen Star Stakes on Saturday (Feb. 17).
Seven 3-year-olds entered in the Risen Star are among the 39 individual horses in KDFW Pool 4. They are Catching Freedom, Hall of Fame, Honor Marie, Real Men Violin, Resilience, Sierra Leone and Track Phantom.
You also might want to check out what occurs in the third race on the Risen Star undercard, a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claimer that has attracted the likes of Nash, Tuscan Sky and Ethan Energy.
Moonlight is cross-entered in the third race and the Risen Star. He’s expected to run in the Risen Star.
Below are the morning-line odds for 2024 KDFW Pool 4:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Agate Road (50-1)
2. Amant Bianco (90-1)
3. Born Noble (40-1)
4. Capital Idea (80-1)
5. Catching Freedom (25-1)
6. Conquest Warrior (20-1)
7. Deterministic (99-1)
8. Dimatic (80-1)
9. Domestic Product (60-1)
10. Dornoch (15-1)
11. El Grande O (80-1)
12. Epic Ride (60-1)
13. Fierceness (12-1)
14. Forever Young (30-1)
15. Hades (30-1)
16. Hall of Fame (20-1)
17. Honor Marie (25-1)
18. Imperial Gun (80-1)
19. Just Steel (80-1)
20. Just a Touch (60-1)
21. Knightsbridge (30-1)
22. Lat Long (90-1)
23. Liberal Arts (60-1)
24. Locked (10-1)
25. Lucky Jeremy (90-1)
26. Mystic Dan (20-1)
27. Nash (30-1)
28. No More Time (40-1)
29. Real Men Violin (90-1)
30. Resilience (99-1)
31. Sierra Leone (15-1)
32. Speak Easy (30-1)
33. Stronghold (99-1)
34. Timberlake (30-1)
35. Track Phantom (20-1)
36. Tuscan Gold (50-1)
37. Tuscan Sky (80-1)
38. Uncle Heavy (40-1)
39. West Saratoga (99-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings (2-1)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 287 National Treasure (18)
2. 250 White Abarrio (10)
3. 187 Senior Buscador
4. 186 Idiomatic (2)
5. 163 Saudi Crown
6. 107 Newgrange
7. 91 Warm Heart
8. 83 Didia
9. 60 Speed Boat Beach
10. 39 Arabian Knight
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Even though No More Time won the Grade III Sam F. Davis Stakes in front-running fashion by 1 1/4 lengths last Saturday (Feb. 10), he did not crack the Top 10 in the NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll this week.
Topping the poll again this week is Nysos, who is ineligible to earn qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby due to his trainer, Bob Baffert, being barred from running horses at Churchill Downs Inc.-owned tracks. The suspension stems from the Baffert-trained Medina Spirit being disqualified from his win in the 2021 Kentucky Derby after testing positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day.
Most recently, Nysos registered a resounding victory in Santa Anita’s Grade III Robert B. Lewis Stakes by 7 1/2 lengths on Feb. 3. He’s won all three career starts by a combined 26 3/4 lengths.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 310 Nysos (31)
2. 200 Muth
3. 177 Fierceness
4. 160 Track Phantom
5. 150 Hades
6. 128 Locked
7. 122 Mystik Dan
8. 93 Dornoch
9. 63 Sierra Leone
10. 42 Maymun
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