No inquiry in this year’s 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby? Are you kidding?
Mystik Dan, who received nothing less than a superb rail-skimming ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. (a la Calvin Borel), prevailed by a scant nose at odds of 18-1 in one of the most dramatic finishes in Kentucky Derby history. Sierra Leone finished second, a nose in front of Forever Young after those two colts were involved in a slugfest while coming down the stretch.
For the stewards to not put up the inquiry sign concerning the actions of Sierra Leone and Forever Young was, in my opinion, ridiculous and an embarrassment.
Through the years, I have been in many a stewards’ stand, be it at a track in California, Washington or Idaho.
I believe that a very important aspect of a steward’s job is to decide whether or not the inquiry sign should be posted after a race has been run.
Look, it’s true that stewards look at EVERY race very closely, both live and immediately afterward via videotape replay. In the vast majority of cases, the scrutiny does not trigger an inquiry.
If the 2024 Kentucky Derby had been contested in California, I believe there is about a 99% chance there would have been an inquiry. I can attest that it is a priority in California that whenever the stewards are taking more than just a routine look at a race, they inform the public by posting the inquiry sign.
In the case of this year’s Kentucky Derby, either the three stewards did not take more than a routine look at the race, or they did do so and they did not let the public know they were doing so. Either way, in my opinion, the stewards dropped the ball.
Barbara Borden, Butch Becraft and Tyler Picklesimer were the three stewards for this year’s Kentucky Derby.
These are the same three stewards who were in the stand for the controversial 2019 Kentucky Derby. After Maximum Security finished first by 1 3/4 lengths, the stewards disqualified him and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy.
I think the Maximum Security disqualification was the correct call. But the stewards did not post the inquiry sign on that occasion, either.
“In 2019, the stewards’ post-Derby adjudication process lasted 22 minutes and played out on national TV as they debated whether Maximum Security’s shifting out while leading on the far turn caused crowding that affected rivals in close pursuit and almost triggered a clipping-of-heels incident,” T.D. Thornton of the Thoroughbred Daily News wrote this week.
“Two jockey objections were lodged in the 2019 Derby, but only one of them was initially announced to the public. The stewards five years ago were criticized for not posting any inquiry into the incident, but at that time the KHRC [Kentucky Horse Racing Commission] essentially gave the same answer that the agency did on Monday -- that just because the ‘inquiry’ sign isn’t lit, it doesn’t mean the stewards aren’t examining the situation.”
For me, the stewards not posting the inquiry sign in the 2019 and 2024 Kentucky Derbies brings to mind the 1980 Preakness Stakes.
The 1980 Preakness was, without question, one of the most controversial races in this country’s history. It’s famous (or infamous) for an incident between Codex and the filly Genuine Risk turning into the stretch.
Just before they straightened away in the stretch, Codex and jockey Angel Cordero Jr. had a narrow lead while racing to the inside of Genuine Risk. Jacinto Vasquez rode Genuine Risk. Two weeks earlier Vasquez and Genuine Risk had won the Kentucky Derby. Genuine Risk became only the second filly to ever win the Run for the Roses and first filly to do so since the Regret in 1915. (How great was Regret? She not only beat the boys in the May 8 Kentucky Derby, she did so while making her first start since Aug. 22!)
In Richard Sowers’ book “The Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes,” he wrote the following of the 1980 Preakness incident turning for home when Codex already was racing wide:
“When Angel Cordero glanced over and saw Genuine Risk coming, he guided Codex even wider toward the center of the track. Vasquez had no choice but to take Genuine Risk even wider, momentarily checking his mount, then pointing her almost at the grandstand. Depending on the source, Codex never actually touched Genuine Risk, violently slammed into her, or lightly brushed her -- the most likely scenario. Regardless, the filly lost all momentum.
“Codex reached the furlong pole a length ahead of Genuine Risk with the rest of the field nowhere in sight, then coasted home 4 3/4 lengths in front.”
Despite there being such an obvious incident involving Codex and Genuine Risk, the stewards did not post the inquiry sign. Vasquez did lodge a foul claim against Codex and Cordero.
“The stewards disallowed the foul claim, and Genuine Risk’s owner, Diana Johnson Firestone, filed a formal complaint with the Maryland Racing Commission, which like the stewards, upheld Codex’s triumph,” Sowers wrote.
You can agree or disagree with the decision by the stewards to not disqualify Codex. But I believe it was poor judgment on the part of the stewards to not post the inquiry sign.
Similarly, you can debate whether or not Sierra Leone should have been disqualified from second and placed third for causing interference to Forever Young. But I believe it was poor judgment on the part of the stewards to not post the inquiry sign.
“There was obvious bumping in the stretch run between runner-up Sierra Leone and third-place finisher Forever Young, and the actions of Tyler Gaffalione aboard Sierra Leone as the wire approached -- appearing to straight-arm Forever Young like a running back -- should have, on their own, warranted an inquiry,” wrote Ray Paulick in the Paulick Report. “But the stewards, like referees in the final seconds of a championship basketball game, swallowed the whistle.
“Their official explanation, taking two full days to manufacture after dodging questions from reporters since Saturday night, was issued Monday by a state government flak.”
Paulick quoted the following official statement from the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission as to why the inquiry sign had not been posted in this year’s Kentucky Derby: “The stewards review every race in Kentucky live and by video replay before posting it official and they followed the same procedure for the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. After conducting their standard review of the race, determining no further review or investigation was necessary to conclude there were no incidents that altered the finish of the race, and seeing there were no objections filed, the stewards posted the Kentucky Derby official.
“Following the race, the stewards ordered Tyler Gaffalione, jockey aboard Sierra Leone, to film review on May 9, 2024. The stewards conduct film review routinely to review the conduct of jockeys during a race. The stewards, in their discretion, can take disciplinary action against a jockey following the review. If the stewards issue a penalty, it will be posted on the Kentucky Derby Racing Commission website.”
The statement issued by the KHRC did not sit well with Paulick.
“The statement is laughable,” Paulick wrote. “There was $26,947,251 wagered in exactas on the Kentucky Derby and the margin between second and third place was a matter of inches. Sierra Leone was out in the middle of the track at the top of the stretch and came in several paths while racing just to the outside of Forever Young for the final three-sixteenths of a mile. Bumps were exchanged. I didn’t have a dog in the fight (my bet was on a horse that finished off the board) but a lot of people did, and the stewards did everyone a disservice by not lighting the inquiry sign and taking a serious look at the stretch run from every angle -- and allow the public to see what they were reviewing.
“I’m not a steward and I’m not going to say whether or not there should have been a disqualification,” Paulick continued. “But there is no question in my mind that there should have been a stewards’ inquiry -- and explanation to the public. Quite simply, they blew it.”
I agree.
CLOSE FINISH MAKES HISTORY
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin noted this week that this actually was the closest three-horse finish in Kentucky Derby history.
“The only finishes close to it were the two heads separating the first three finishers [Jet Pilot, Phalanx and Faultless] in 1947 and the nose and half-length that separated the first three finishers [Alan-a-Dale, Inventor and The Rival] in 1902, but that last one was in a four-horse field when the Kentucky Derby was pretty much just another of the major races of the day,” Haskin wrote.
“…Sure Mystik Dan’s victory will stand the test of time, especially with all the elements surrounding it. But for now we still have the images of the drama that unfolded down the stretch with Forever Young trying to escape the clutches of Sierra Leone, who was intent on playing bumper cars with the Japanese invader every step of the way. It was an unfortunate conclusion to Forever Young’s remarkable 14,000-mile journey that covered four countries, three continents and three Derbies, ending with what looked more like a sumo wrestling match with Sierra Leone, who bumped, shoved and basically mauled Forever Young, who already had his share of misfortune in the race with a bad start, suffering a laceration, and having to go five-wide into the far turn. He tried to give back as much as he got, but he was pretty much overwhelmed by the bigger and stronger Sierra Leone, who has had a habit of lugging in through most of his career.
“…Even as they bore down on Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone kept coming in on Forever Young and delivering a series of battle blows. Nearing the wire Tyler Gafflione, perhaps bracing himself for another collusion that could cost him the race, felt compelled to reach out with his left arm, pushing against Forever Young trying to create some separation between the two, while pulling hard on the right rein. In the end it all resulted in the most exciting and exhilarating Derby finish in memory.”
I think it was unfortunate for Forever Young that he came into the stretch racing to the inside instead of the outside of Sierra Leone. If Forever Young had been outside that rival, then the Real Steel colt would not have had to deal with a lugging in Sierra Leone all the way down the lane.
Haskin expressed the view that Sierra Leone should not vilified.
“Let’s not portray Sierra Leone as some sort of villain,” Haskin wrote. “With his huge, but awkward stride and habit of paddling his left leg, he, for whatever reason, can’t help lugging in, but in the past he has only done it when there is open space to his left. This big bulldozer of a horse, who cost $2.3 million at the Saratoga yearling sale, has been able to steamroll his opponents. In his five starts, he has passed, or should I say blown by, 51 of his opponents, roaring by them out in the middle of the track. But there was one he failed to pass by about two inches Saturday, the biggest day of them all.”
MEMORIES OF GATE DANCER
Back in the 1980s, there was a colt who, like Sierra Leone, lugged in all the time. His name was Gate Dancer. His trainer, Jack Van Berg, was inducted into the national Hall of Fame in 1985.
One morning at Santa Anita early in 1984 when Gate Dancer was a 3-year-old, I talked with Van Berg’s son and assistant trainer, Tim, about the son of Sovereign Dancer and the Bull Lea mare Sun Gate.
“Is there anything you can do to try and stop Gate Dancer from lugging in?” I asked.
“Yes, we can,” Tim replied. “Come on over to the barn and I’ll show you what we’re going to do.”
Tim walked into the barn’s stable office. After a moment, he came out holding earmuffs.
“He’s going to wear these for his next race,” Tim said. “They use these all the time in Japan.”
But it turned out that even when racing with earmuffs, Gate Dancer continued to have a problem with lugging in. He lugged in so badly during the stretch run of the 1984 Kentucky Derby that he absolutely pummeled poor Fali Time. Gate Dancer finished fourth, with Fali Time fifth. Gate Dancer was disqualified and placed fifth for “bumping Fali Time several times,” as it says in the official chart comments.
Gate Dancer in 1984 became the first horse ever disqualified in the history of the Kentucky Derby for his actions during the running of the race.
In 2019, Maximum Security became the first horse in the history of the Kentucky Derby to finish first and then be disqualified for his actions during the running of the race.
After Gate Dancer had his number taken down in the Kentucky Derby, he did win the Preakness Stakes two weeks later.
Later in 1984, in what would be one of the most controversial races in the history of the sport in this country, Gate Dancer was disqualified from second and placed third for lugging in and causing interference during the stretch run of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, which was won by 31-1 longshot Wild Again.
In a furious three-horse battle in the final furlong of the Classic, Wild Again was on the inside, Slew o’ Gold was in between, while Gate Dancer was on the outside. A lot of people thought the interference suffered by Slew o’ Gold was caused by Wild Again. They were outraged that Gate Dancer, not Wild Again, was disqualified.
The three stewards for the 1984 Classic at Hollywood Park were Pete Pedersen, Hubert Jones and Alfred Shelhamer. One morning a couple of days after the Classic, Shelhamer took the time to show me on a video replay of the race why Gate Dancer had been disqualified.
As we watched the slo-mo head-on, Shelhamer pointed out to me that Wild Again had not drifted out. The reason it looked like he was drifting out was because he had been bumped in the hindquarters. Shelhamer showed me that when Gate Dancer was lugging in, he pushed Slew o’ Gold into the hindquarters of Wild Again. And when the hind end of Wild Again was bumped, it pushed the front part of his body outward. But when many people looked at the head-on and saw the front part of Wild Again angled toward the grandstand, they concluded that he was drifting out and causing interference to Slew o’ Gold.
I have heard Jerry Bailey, an NBC broadcaster after a Hall of Fame career as a jockey, and others say that they believe that before Sierra Leone was lugging into Forever Young, it was Forever Young who came out first to make contact with Sierra Leone. And if Forever Young was indeed the instigator, it weakens the case to disqualify Sierra Leone for bumping and impeding Forever Young a number of times after that.
But when I watch the head-on of the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby, I do not agree that Forever Young was the instigator. I think what took place in upper stretch between Forever Young and Sierra Leone was much like what happened during the stretch run in the 1984 Breeders’ Cup Classic.
It appears to me that the first contact between Forever Young and Sierra Leone in upper stretch takes place when Sierra Leone lugs in and slams the hind end of Forever Young, thus pushing the front part of Forever Young’s body outward. When many people watching the head-on see the front of Forever Young’s head turned outward toward the grandstand, they come to the conclusion -- erroneously, I believe -- that the initial contact between Forever Young and Sierra Leone was caused by Forever Young.
From what I saw, it’s my opinion that Sierra Leone should have been disqualified from second and placed third for continuously lugging in through the stretch run and causing interference to Forever Young, who lost by a nose and a nose.
TRAINER ALSO MAKES HISTORY
Kenny McPeek became just the third trainer in the 150-year history of the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby to win both races in the same year. The other two trainers to accomplish this feat were H.J. “Derby Dick” Thompson in 1933 and Ben “Plain Ben” Jones in both 1949 and 1952.
Thompson in 1933 won the Oaks with Barn Swallow and the Derby with the maiden Brokers Tip. That was the year of the “fighting finish Derby” in which Don Meade aboard Brokers Tip and Herb Fischer on Head Play basically were wrestling with each other while their horses were battling down the stretch.
In 1949, Jones won the Oaks with Wistful and the Derby with Ponder.
In 1952, Jones won the Oaks with Real Delight and the Derby with Hill Gail.
This year marked only the third time in history that the same jockey and trainer won both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby in the same year.
In addition to 38-year-old Hernandez and 61-year-old McPeek collaborating to win this year’s Oaks with Thorpedo Anna and Derby with Mystik Dan, Meade and Thompson teamed up to win both races in 1933. When Jones won both races as a trainer in 1952, the legendary Eddie Arcaro rode both winners.
MORE ON HERNANDEZ’S MARVELOUS RIDE
Back when Jay Privman, who is now retired, was writing a detailed analysis of the stakes races awarding Kentucky Derby points, time and again he had praise for the riding abilities of Brian Hernandez Jr. Hernandez seemed to be underrated despite having won the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Classic aboard 9-1 Fort Larned.
Hernandez made a point to do some homework prior to this year’s Kentucky Derby by studying Calvin Borel, a fellow rider from Louisiana known for his rail-skimming rides. Remarkably, Borel won three Kentucky Derbies in four years on Street Sense (2007), Mine That Bird (2009) and Super Saver (2010).
“When we drew the three post I watched Calvin’s rides on Super Saver and Mine That Bird in the Derby, both on the rail, and said I’m just going to roll the dice” to try and do the same thing on Mystik Dan, Hernandez said.
Doing a spot-on Borel impersonation, Hernandez gave a ride last Saturday that was a masterpiece. After the start, Hernandez got Mystik Dan over to the inside rail almost as quickly as you can say the jockey’s name.
Hernandez then stayed next to the inside rail the entire way around the oval. It was also very Borel-like for Hernandez to boldly squeeze through an extremely tight opening between a backpedaling Track Phantom and the inner rail turning for home. It certainly was to Mystik Dan’s credit that he unhesitatingly charged through the small hole. How tight was it? Hernandez’s left boot actually scraped the rail.
Mystik Dan shook clear in upper stretch and bounded past the eighth pole two lengths in front. By being either first or second a furlong from home he put himself in what I call “the prime position” to win the Kentucky Derby. That’s because including Mystik Dan, 58 of the last 62 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second a furlong from the finish. The four exceptions during this period were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and Rich Strike in 2022.
One of the reasons that I made Forever Young my top pick in this year’s Kentucky Derby is I thought he might be able to be first or second with a furlong to go. He was second at the eighth pole, a head of Sierra Leone in third.
LONGER TRIP FOR SIERRA LEONE & FOREVER YOUNG
It turned out that Mystik Dan and Hernandez needed to save every single inch of ground they possibly could considering their margin of victory in the 1 1/4-mile classic was only a nose.
Indeed, according to the Equibase GPS chart, Mystik Dan traveled 6,608 feet, compared to 6,631 feet by Sierra Leone and 6,647 feet by Forever Young.
In other words, Forever Young lost by two noses (which equals a head) after traveling 39 feet, or approximately four lengths, farther than Mystik Dan.
Sierra Leone lost by just a nose after traveling 23 feet, or about 2 1/2 lengths, farther than Mystik Dan.
SO CLOSE TO PERFECT RECORDS
As expected, Fierceness, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2023, was sent away as the favorite in this year’s Kentucky Derby. He finished 15th at odds of 3-1.
Sierra Leone was the 9-2 second choice in the wagering, with Forever Young next at 7-1. Catching Freedom, off at 8-1, finished fourth. Everyone else in the race was sent off at 11-1 or higher.
Sierra Leone is only two noses away from being undefeated in five career starts. In addition to the Kentucky Derby, he lost the Remsen Stakes by a nose on a muddy track at Aqueduct last Dec. 2.
The Remsen winner, Dornoch, ended up 10th at 22-1 in the Kentucky Derby.
Forever Young is just two noses away from being undefeated in six career starts.
Another reason I picked Forever Young to win the Kentucky Derby is my feeling that he has a great trainer in Yoshito Yahagi.
“I expect Yahagi to have Forever Young as ready as humanly possible to run a biggie on the first Saturday in May,” I wrote for Xpressbet.com. “Yahagi being in Forever Young’s corner is a major reason I think this colt represents Japan’s best chance yet to win the Kentucky Derby.
“I became a believer in Yahagi when he won not one, but two Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar in 2021. He shocked the racing world by winning the BC Distaff with 49-1 longshot Marche Lorraine. Yahagi also won the BC Filly & Mare Turf with 4-1 Loves Only You.”
Well, it turned out that Yahagi came within inches of adding a Kentucky Derby victory to his ever-growing list of achievements.
FICKLE FIERCENESS
The drastic in-and-out form of Fierceness continued. He followed his victory in the Florida Derby by a record-breaking 13 1/2 lengths with a defeat in the Kentucky Derby by 24 1/2 lengths.
Consider the Beyer Speed Figures for Fierceness, beginning with his 13 3/4-length debut win on a muddy track last year at Saratoga: 95, 59, 105, 84, 110, 67.
It’s one of the wackiest sequences of Beyers that I have ever seen.
Fierceness produced his 105 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in dominant fashion by 6 1/4 lengths last November. He recorded his 110 Beyer in the Florida Derby.
Though Fierceness hopped at the start, Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez deftly put the favorite in an ideal spot early when attending the pace while outside rivals. And it’s not as if it was a sizzling early pace. The fractions were :22.97 for the opening quarter-mile, :46.63 for the half, 1:11.31 for six furlongs. By comparison, the early splits last year were :22.35, :45.73 and 1:10.11.
But for the third time in his six lifetime starts, Fierceness let his many backers down, just as he had when finishing seventh as a 1-2 favorite in the Champagne Stakes and third as a 1-5 favorite in the Holy Bull Stakes.
Prior to the Kentucky Derby, I did see some possible signs that the “good” Fierceness might not show up.
For one thing, coming off a 110 Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby, Fierceness had every right to regress off a huge effort.
Also, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners continue to have a dismal overall record vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby. Street Sense and Nyquist remain the only two to win both races since the Breeders’ Cup was launched all the way back in 1984.
And then there was the matter of Fierceness having to pack the extra weight of being Andy Beyer’s pick to win. For Xpressbet.com last week, I wrote: “A major concern for Fierceness in the Kentucky Derby is Andy Beyer said this week on Steve Byk’s SiriuxXM radio program At the Races that ‘my exacta is Fierceness over Just a Touch.’
“That is worrisome for Fierceness,” I noted. “Beyer himself readily admits that the record of his top pick in the three Triple Crown races is awful.”
Why was I hoping that Beyer didn’t pick Forever Young, the horse I liked, in this year’s Kentucky Derby? Consider Beyer’s woeful exhibition of public handicapping during the 2015 Triple Crown. Beyer’s top choice in all three races was badly outrun.
Beyer picked Upstart to win the 2015 Kentucky Derby. Upstart was eased and finished 60 1/2 lengths behind American Pharoah.
Firing Line then was Beyer’s top pick in the Preakness Stakes. Firing Line stumbled at the start, was eased and finished 45 lengths behind American Pharoah.
Beyer’s top pick in the Belmont Stakes was Materiality, who finished last and lost by 22 1/4 lengths to American Pharoah.
While American Pharoah was running his way into the history books by winning the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont to become the first horse to sweep the Triple Crown in 37 years, Beyer’s top pick in those three races lost by a combined 127 3/4 lengths.
As for Beyer’s exacta in this year’s Kentucky Derby, those two horses lost by a combined 74 lengths. As mentioned earlier, Fierceness finished 15th and lost by 24 1/2 lengths. Just a Touch wound up last in the field of 20 and lost by 54 lengths.
WINNER GETS TRIPLE-DIGIT BEYER (BARELY)
Mystik Dan was credited with a 100 Beyer Speed Figure for his Kentucky Derby performance.
Going back to 1989, the first year in which Beyer Speed Figures were listed in the American Racing Manual, the lowest figure for a Kentucky Derby winner was California Chrome’s 97 in 2014.
Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Kentucky Derby winners going back to 1989:
2023 Mage (105)
2022 Rich Strike (101)
2021 Mandaloun (101)*
2020 Authentic (105)
2019 Country House (99)**
2018 Justify (103)
2017 Always Dreaming (102)
2016 Nyquist (103)
2015 American Pharoah (105)
2014 California Chrome (97)
2013 Orb (104)
2012 I’ll Have Another (101)
2011 Animal Kingdom (103)
2010 Super Saver (104)
2009 Mine That Bird (105)
2008 Big Brown (109)
2007 Street Sense (110)
2006 Barbaro (111)
2005 Giacomo (100)
2004 Smarty Jones (107)
2003 Funny Cide (109)
2002 War Emblem (114)
2001 Monarchos (116)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (108)
1999 Charismatic (108)
1998 Real Quiet (107)
1997 Silver Charm (115)
1996 Grindstone (112)
1995 Thunder Gulch (108)
1994 Go for Gin (112)
1993 Sea Hero (105)
1992 Lil E. Tee (107)
1991 Strike the Gold (not listed)
1990 Unbridled (not listed)
1989 Sunday Silence (102)
*Medina Spirit (102 Beyer) finished first but was disqualified and forfeited all purse money due to a medication violation, with Mandaloun being declared the winner
**Country House finished second but was placed first after Maximum Security (101 Beyer) was disqualified from first and placed 17th for causing interference
GOLDENCENTS SIRES A KENTUCKY DERBY WINNER
Mystik Dan is a Kentucky-bred son of Goldencents and the Colonel John mare Ma’am.
Though Goldencents is best known for winning two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Mile, he did have enough stamina to win the Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles.
Goldencents is by super sire Into Mischief. Into Mischief has sired not one, but two Kentucky Derby winners in Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021 through the disqualification of Medina Spirit).
Into Mischief also is the sire of Laurel River, who won this year’s Dubai World Cup by 8 1/2 lengths in a sensational performance.
McPeek trained Harlan’s Holiday, who finished seventh as the 6-1 favorite when War Emblem won the 2022 Kentucky Derby. Harlan’s Holiday, a grandson of 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed, later would sire Into Mischief.
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
Another reason Forever Young was my pick to win the Kentucky Derby is he has zero strikes in my Derby Strikes System. Forever Young didn’t win, though he did come very close.
The victorious Mystik Dan also had zero strikes.
I developed my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes.
Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
History tells us that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (41 out of 51) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes: Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. This is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2024 Mystik Dan (0 strikes)
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 58 of the last 62 Kentucky Derby winners through 2024 have been first or second with a furlong to run. From 1962 through 2024, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
MUTH FAVORED IN PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGER POOL 2
Arkansas Derby winner Muth closed as the 7-2 favorite in Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager. Pool 2 opened on April 26 and closed last Saturday (May 4) prior to the Kentucky Derby.
Mystik Dan closed at odds of 45-1 and then went out and won the Kentucky Derby at 18-1. If he starts in the Preakness, he is expected to be no worse than the second favorite to Muth in what would be a rematch.
Muth won the Arkansas Derby by two lengths on March 30. Mystik Dan finished third, 6 1/4 lengths behind Muth.
Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Muth, a Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt.
Baffert sent out Medina Spirit to finish first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. However, the colt was disqualified after he tested positive for the presence of betamethasone, a medication that was legal to use, but not on race day. Following Medina Spirit’s DQ, Churchill Downs Inc. banned Baffert from participating at any of its tracks in 2022 and 2023. The suspension then was extended (unfairly, in my opinion) through 2024. Muth is eligible to compete in the Preakness and Belmont.
I wrote for Xpressbet.com that “one horse I will be betting in Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager if he stays anywhere near his 30-1 price on the morning line is Tuscan Gold. It’s my view that, generally speaking, 30-1 is the sort of price that one should be looking at in a future wager rather than Muth’s 3-1.”
Tuscan Gold closed at 17-1, which was way off the mark from the 30-1 odds on the Pool 2 morning line issued by Horse Racing Nation’s Ed DeRosa. At 17-1, I had no interest in any putting money on Tuscan Gold.
This year’s Preakness Stakes will be run at Pimlico Race Course on May 18. The 1 3/16-mile middle jewel of the Triple Crown has a purse of $2 million.
In addition to Muth, Baffert plans to run Santa Anita Derby runner-up Imagination in the Preakness. Imagination closed at 17-1 in Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager. Winner of Santa Anita’s San Felipe Stakes in early March, Imagination finished second in the April 6 Santa Anita Derby to Stronghold, who then ran seventh in the Kentucky Derby.
Below are the final odds for Pool 2 of the Preakness future wager as reported by 1/ST BET:
Odds Horse
7-2 Muth
9-2 Fierceness
8-1 Sierra Leone
12-1 All Other 3-Year-Olds
12-1 Forever Young
14-1 Catching Freedom
17-1 Imagination
17-1 Tuscan Gold
26-1 Just a Touch
26-1 Seize the Grey
31-1 Dornoch
36-1 Honor Marie
37-1 Domestic Product
38-1 Just Steel
45-1 Mystik Dan
52-1 Copper Tax
53-1 Stronghold
54-1 Resilience
60-1 Endlessly
63-1 Track Phantom
68-1 Catalytic
85-1 Epic Ride
90-1 Informed Patriot
92-1 Imperial Gun
103-1 West Saratoga
120-1 Society Man
120-1 T O Password
121-1 Grand Mo the First
133-1 Uncle Heavy
213-1 Le Dom Bro
SCR Encino
SCR Patriot Spirit
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 282 Senor Buscador (15)
2. 249 Idiomatic (9)
3. 200 National Treasure (4)
4. 156 First Mission (1)
5. 148 Master of The Seas (1)
6. 103 White Abarrio
7. 86 Adare Manor
8. 58 Skippylongstocking
9. 50 Saudi Crown
10. 48 Skelly
Though they did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron and Laurel River each received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
In the wake of his Kentucky Derby victory, Mystik Dan vaults to No. 1 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll after he ranked No. 15 last week.
Also, Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna debuts on the Top 10 this week after she ranked No. 25 last week.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 305 Mystik Dan (22)
2. 288 Sierra Leone (5)
3. 218 Muth (3)
4. 208 Forever Young (1)
5. 178 Catching Freedom
6. 99 Thorpedo Anna
7. 82 Nysos
8. 67 Fierceness
9. 66 Resilience
10. 48 Stronghold
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