I admit it. Regarding my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week, I am biased. Sure, Forte is now a firm No. 1 on most lists. That’s certainly appropriate. Is Forte the favorite to win the Run for the Roses at this time? Yes, absolutely.
After all, Forte came off the bench like a beast when making his 2023 debut in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park last Saturday (March 4). It was a marvelous way for the Kentucky-bred Violence colt to kick off his 3-year-old campaign after snagging a trio of Grade I races and an Eclipse Award as a 2-year-old.
I am a participant in the weekly NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll. It was a no-brainer for me this week to put Forte at the top on my ballot rankings. Actually, I’ve been putting him No. 1 each week since this year’s first poll on Jan. 30.
But do I have Forte at the top of my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week? Nope.
Why in the heck, you might wonder, is Forte at No. 1 on my NTRA ballot rankings but not my Kentucky Derby Top 10? Good question.
The way I rank the Top 10 horses on my NTRA ballot is based mainly on what a horse has accomplished, whereas my Kentucky Derby Top 10 is different kettle of fish.
While it’s true that my Kentucky Derby Top 10 also to some extent is based on what a horse has accomplished, these particular rankings of mine are geared more toward how I currently view a horse’s chances of winning the 1 1/4-mile classic on the first Saturday in May.
I was all set to put Forte at No. 1 and Practical Move at No. 2 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week. But when push came to shove, I just couldn’t do it. I was not able to be objective. That’s because if Practical Move (pictured above) wins the Kentucky Derby, I’ll be cashing a future wager on him for almost $17,000. It’s why I couldn’t help throwing objectivity out the window when I decided to go with Practical Move at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week following his splendid performance to win Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes in his 2023 debut last Saturday (March 4).
Is there an element of wishful thinking to my putting Practical Move at No. 1 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10? Guilty as charged. But I would not have him No. 1 if I didn’t believe he is a serious Kentucky Derby contender. And I am far from alone in that assessment. He now ranks high on many, if not most, Kentucky Derby lists.
How seriously is Practical Move being taken now? In Kentucky Derby future wagering at Las Vegas race books last week, he was listed at 65-1 at Caesars and 50-1 at Circa.
And what is Practical Move now in Vegas, after the San Felipe? His price plummeted to 18-1 at Circa and to an even lower 15-1 at Caesars. What a difference a week makes. And what a difference a San Felipe victory makes.
In the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe, Practical Move raced close up while saving ground in the early furlongs. He was full of run on the far turn when continuing to race along the inner rail while behind the leading Hejazi and bottled up inside Geaux Rocket Ride and Fort Bragg.
Turning into the stretch, Hejazi appeared to be already racing in about the two path when he drifted out to leave a hole for Practical Move that was big enough to drive a Mack truck through. That’s a phrase I heard from time to time when going to the races as a youngster in the 1960s and 1970s in the Pacific Northwest at Longacres, Playfair, Yakima Meadows and Coeur d’Alene.
When jockey Ramon Vazquez asked Practical Move to go through the gaping hole coming into the stretch, the Kentucky-bred Practical Joke colt did so willingly and swiftly to take command at the top of the lane.
Practical Move drew clear in upper stretch to pass the eighth pole with a 1 1/2-length lead, then came home strongly to prevail by 2 1/2 lengths at odds of 4-1. Even though he was returning from a layoff and, like so many others, had his training interrupted by the spate of rainy weather recently in Southern California, Practical Move was even much farther in front when galloping out after the finish.
This was Practical Move’s first start since his Dec. 17 triumph in the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity, also a 1 1/16-mile contest.
“There have been 15 [Kentucky] Derby qualifying stakes at 1 1/16 miles on dirt so far in 2022-23,” T.D. Thornton wrote for the Thoroughbred Daily News (TDN). “Practical Move now owns the two fastest clockings -- 1:41.65 in the Los Al Futurity and 1:42.10 in the San Felipe.”
Practical Move’s San Felipe clocking was the fastest by a San Felipe winner since Dortman’s time of 1:41.65 eight years ago. Practical Move won the San Felipe in faster time than such other recent winners as Authentic (1:43.56 in 2020) and Life Is Good (1:42.18 in 2021).
Authentic won a pair of important Grade I events in 2020, the COVID-delayed Kentucky Derby and the Breeders’ Cup Classic, en route to being voted 2020 Horse of the Year. Life Is Good won the Grade I BC Dirt Mile in 2021, plus three other Grade I races.
A praiseworthy final clocking in a 1 1/16-mile race was a major reason why I latched onto I’ll Have Another as my choice to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby after he had won the Grade II Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita in early February. Even though I’ll Have Another was returning from a layoff, his final time in the Lewis was 1:40.84.
What Setsuko did later that same day as the Lewis was one of the reasons I felt I’ll Have Another’s time of 1:40.84 was legit. Setsuko, a 5-year-old, won a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claiming race in a slower 1:41.05 while making his 2012 debut. In his next start, Setsuko lost the Grade I Santa Anita Handicap by a scant nose when he finished second to Game On Dude.
In I’ll Have Another’s next start, he won the Grade I Santa Anita Derby prior to victories in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.
Any way you slice it, Practical Move looks like he’s going to be mighty tough to beat in his next race. That likely will be the Grade I Santa Anita Derby at 1 1/8 miles on April 8, according to trainer Tim Yakteen, who did a terrific job to have Practical Move ready to run such a big race after a layoff.
How big was Practical Move’s San Felipe? It’s quantified by his 100 Beyer, a new best figure. Forte was credited with a 98 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth, down a bit from his previous top of 100 when he won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
Considering Practical Move’s Beyer in the San Felipe exceeded Forte’s Fountain of Youth fig, maybe I’m not way out of line to rank Practical Move a notch higher than Forte on my Kentucky Derby Top 10.
On Feb. 12, in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), I put money on four horses: Banishing at 27-1, Geaux Rocket Ride at 25-1, Kingsbarns at 35-1 and Practical Move at much larger odds.
“I was not about to miss the boat with Practical Move at a mouth-watering 83-1 in Pool 4, especially after he fired a bullet five-furlong workout in :59.00 at Santa Anita last Saturday (Feb. 11),” I wrote for Xpressbet.com. “Tim Yakteen trains the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity winner, who is No. 4 in Secretariat.com Steve Haskin’s Derby rankings, below only Forte, Tapit Trice and Arabian Knight.”
When I saw Practical Move at more than 80-1 in the final moments before Pool 4 of the KDFW closed, I told myself, “This is not the time to be timid.” Hence, I bet $200 on him.
This really is what one should be trying to do as much as possible in terms of future wagering. The goal should be to try your best to give yourself a chance to make a big score. That’s what I did when I made future bets on Kentucky Derby winners I’ll Have Another in 2012 and Justify in 2018.
I put $100 on I’ll Have Another at 23-1 in the KDFW on March 3. I made that wager after watching him work six furlongs between races at Santa Anita in a dandy 1:10.16. That future wager turned out to be a $2,300 home run.
Prior to Justify’s first career start, I bet $100 on him at 100-1 at the Wynn race book in Las Vegas. That turned out to be a $10,000 grand slam.
Of the four horses I bet on last month in Pool 4 of the KDFW, two of them ran one-two in the San Felipe. Finishing second in the field of nine was Geaux Rocket Ride, who was backed down to slight $2.70 to $1 San Felipe favoritism over $2.80 to $1 Skinner.
I think Geaux Rocket Ride’s effort in the San Felipe was admirable in that he went into the race with only a maiden sprint victory under his belt. He figures to be a major player once again in the Santa Anita Derby for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella.
Skinner, who lollygagged in last early, came on to finish a decent third in the San Felipe for trainer John Shirreffs. Perhaps Skinner’s late kick was blunted a tad because of returning just three weeks after his maiden victory. Cavalierly dismiss Skinner in the Santa Anita Derby at your own peril.
My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:
1. Practical Move
2. Forte
3. Arabian Knight
4. Tapit Trice
5. Instant Coffee
6. Geaux Rocket Ride
7. Skinner
8. Angel of Empire
9. Reincarnate
10. Confidence Game
Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):
Congruent, Damon’s Mound, Denington, Disarm, Eyeing Clover, Hard to Figure, Henry Q., Hit Show, Kingsbarns, Litigate, National Treasure, Please Be Nice, Red Route One, Rocket Can, Slip Mahoney, Sun Thunder, Tall Boy, Two Eagles River, Two Phil’s, Worcester and Verifying.
TAMPA BAY DERBY SELECTIONS
Saturday’s Grade III Tampa Bay Derby has drawn a field of a dozen to do battle at 1 1/16 miles. No doubt Tapit Trice, who is ranked No. 4 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10, is going to be a heavy favorite.
Tapit Trice is coming off an impressive win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 4. In front by just a half-length at the eighth pole, he won by eight widening lengths and was credited with a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.
Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher trains Tapit Trice, a $1.3 million Kentucky-bred Tapit colt.
I took a shot by picking against the Pletcher-trained Forte in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes last Saturday (March 4) at Gulfstream. How did that turn out? Forte won for fun as a heavy favorite.
I’m not about to go against Tapit Trice in this spot, though one concern I have is he’s never raced on Tampa’s main track, a kind of quirky surface that has tripped up many an overwhelming favorite through the years. Eclipse Award winner Wonder Wheel is a glaring recent example. Backed down to odds-on favoritism when racing on Tampa’s main track for the first time in the Suncoast Stakes on Feb. 11, she was upset by longshot Dreaming of Snow.
If Tapit Trice is upset in the Tampa Bay Derby, it might be by Shesterkin, who also is trained by Pletcher.
A Kentucky-bred Violence colt, Shesterkin won a seven-furlong maiden special weight race by 2 1/4 lengths when unveiled at Gulfstream on Dec. 31. Sent away as a 4-5 favorite there on Feb. 4, he finished a distant second to 6-5 Tapit Trice.
My selections for the Tampa Bay Derby are below:
1. Tapit Trice
2. Shesterkin
3. Groveland
4. Freedom Road
STILLETO BOY FLATTERS FLIGHTLINE
I noted last week that when Flightline ran up the score to demolish his foes in Del Mar’s Grade I, $1 million Pacific Classic by 19 1/4 lengths last year, Country Grammer ran second.
Finishing sixth in the Pacific Classic, a whopping 36 1/2 lengths behind Flightline, was Stilleto Boy.
Last Saturday (March 4), Stilleto Boy won the prestigious $500,000 Santa Anita Handicap.
On Feb. 25, Country Grammer ran second to Japan’s Panthalassa in the world’s richest horse race, the $20 million Saudi Cup.
I think these recent victories by Stilleto Boy and Country Grammer point out how tremendously talented the now-retired Flightline was as a racehorse.
KENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERING
If you are so inclined, you can make a bet or two or more in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) this week. In addition to win and exacta wagering being offered on the May 6 Kentucky Derby, an Oaks-Derby Future Wager linking the May 5 Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby is on the betting menu.
KDFW Pool 5 wagering opens for Friday (March 10) at noon ET and concludes Sunday (March 12) at 6 p.m. ET.
The number of individual horses being offered for the 2023 Kentucky Derby has increased to the benefit of horseplayers. Pool 5 consists of 39 individual horses, plus an “all other 3-year-olds option.” In past years, it would have been 23 individual horses instead of 39.
Well, I’m darn glad that Practical Move was one of the 39 individual horses in Pool 4, which prompted a $200 wager from me when I saw that he was a gigantic price. He closed at 83-1. Needless to say, that bet has me excited after Practical Move went out there last Saturday (March 4) and won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes in his first start as a 3-year-old.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin has Practical Move ranked No. 2 in his latest Kentucky Derby rankings, below only Forte.
“Do you think he looks like a bargain now at 83-1 in the latest Future Wager?” Haskin wrote this week of Practical Move.
I certainly do.
“What in the world were people thinking?” Haskin added.
I know what I was thinking. I was thinking, “What a great price! I’m in for $200!”
The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 has Practical Move ranked No. 4 this week. Forte is No. 1, followed by Arabian Knight at No. 2 and Tapit Trice at No. 3.
“Practical Move executed the biggest leapfrog of the season by emphatically winning Saturday’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes, going from unranked to No. 4 on this list,” the T.D. Thornton wrote for the Thoroughbred Daily News.
Similarly, Byron King’s Kentucky Derby Dozen for BloodHorse has Practical Move at No. 6 this week after being unranked last week. Forte is No. 1, followed by Arabian Knight, Instant Coffee, Tapit Trice and Reincarnate.
The NTRA Top Three-Year-Old now has Practical Move ranked No. 3 this week after he was No. 17 last week. Forte is No. 1. Arabian Knight is No. 2. Forte received 34 first-place votes (including mine), while Arabian Knight and Practical Move each had a single first-place vote.
David Aragona slashed Practical Move’s projected Kentucky Derby odds from 30-1 to 10-1 this week in Daily Racing Form’s Derby Watch. The only two with lower odds are Forte at 4-1 and Arabian Knight at 8-1.
Forte is the 4-1 morning-line favorite in Pool 5 of the KDFW. I consider it to be an awfully short price this far out from a race that’s still weeks away. Forte, with five victories from six starts and an Eclipse Award on his resume, is the real deal. But is Forte worth betting at 4-1? No thanks. Don’t forget, there are no refunds in future wagering.
Practical Move has gone from closing at 83-1 in Pool 4 to being the 8-1 second favorite among individual horses on the morning line for Pool 5.
In Pool 1 on Nov. 3, Practical Move was among the “all other 3-year-old colts and geldings option” that closed at 4-5.
In Pool 2 on Nov. 27, Practical Move closed at 350-1. How great would it be to have $200 or even $100 on him at that price?
In Pool 3 on Jan. 22, Practical Move was 58-1. It’s interesting that his odds then rose to 83-1 in Pool 4 on Feb. 12, a price that appeared crazily high vis-a-vis his 58-1 odds in Pool 3.
Once again there are no Bob Baffert-trained horses among the 39 individual horses in Pool 5 this week. That’s because Baffert currently is banned from entering a horse in this year’s Kentucky Derby.
In order to earn qualifying points and become eligible to run in the Kentucky Derby, several Baffert-trained horses recently were transferred to other trainers prior to a Feb. 28 deadline. They mostly were moved to Tim Yakteen (who has been Practical Move’s conditioner all along). One of the Baffert-trained runners now with Yakteen is undefeated Grade III Southwest Stakes winner Arabian Knight, the third individual choice on the Pool 4 morning line at 10-1.
Before making any future wagers in Pool 5, it’s probably a good idea to wait until you see what happens in the Tampa Bay Derby this Saturday (March 11).
Below are the morning-line odds for Pool 5 of the 2022 KDFW:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Angel of Empire (30-1)
2. Arabian Knight (10-1)
3. Arabian Lion (50-1)
4. Blazing Sevens (40-1)
5. Cagliostro (99-1)
6. Cairo (50-1)
7. Classic Car Wash (99-1)
8. Classic Catch (50-1)
9. Confidence Game (30-1)
10. Congruent (80-1)
11. Cyclone Mischief (40-1)
12. Denington (80-1)
13. Disarm (99-1)
14. Forte (4-1)
15. Geaux Rocet Ride (20-1)
16. General Jim (80-1)
17. Hejazi (40-1)
18. Hit Show (30-1)
19. Instant Coffee (30-1)
20. Kingsbarns (50-1)
21. Litigate (50-1)
22. Mage (80-1)
23. Major Dude (50-1)
24. Mandarin Hero (50-1)
25. National Treasure (30-1)
26. Perriere (50-1)
27. Practical Move (8-1)
28. Raise Cain (50-1)
29. Red Route One (40-1)
30. Reincarnate (30-1)
31. Rocket Can (40-1)
32. Skinner (40-1)
33. Sun Thunder (99-1)
34. Tapit Trice (15-1)
35. Tapit’s Conquest (80-1)
36. Two Eagles River (80-1)
37. Two Phil’s (80-1)
38. Verifying (50-1)
39. Victory Formation (80-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Olds (5-1)
KENTUCKY OAKS FUTURE WAGERING
Kentucky Oaks Future Wagering also is being offered this week. Wonder Wheel has been installed as the 8-1 morning-line favorite.
In Wonder Wheel’s 2023 debut, she lost by neck when second as a 1-2 favorite to 38-1 longshot Dreaming of Snow in Tampa Bay Downs’ Suncoast Stakes on Feb. 11. Wonder Wheel was voted an Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old filly of 2022.
Interestingly, the filly Hoosier Philly closed as the 11-1 second choice in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 on Feb. 12, a price I cited as being ridiculously low. After Hoosier Philly won all three of her starts last year, she finished third as a 2-5 favorite in Fair Grounds’ Grade II Rachel Alexandra Stakes on Feb. 18.
From an absurd 11-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4, Hoosier Philly now is listed at 15-1 on the morning line in this week’s Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool.
Below are the morning-line odds for what will be the only 2023 Kentucky Oaks Future Wager pool:
No. Horse (Morning Line Odds)
1. Affirmative Lady (99-1)
2. Ami Please (99-1)
3. And Tell Me Nolies (40-1)
4. Asset Purchase (30-1)
5. Atomically (50-1)
6. Blessed Touch (50-1)
7. Botonical (20-1)
8. Capella (40-1)
9. Chop Chop (40-1)
10. Clearly Unhinged (40-1)
11. Condensation (40-1)
12. Dorth Vader (20-1)
13. Dreaming of Snow (30-1)
14. Flashy Gem (40-1)
15. Flying Connection (50-1)
16. Gambling Girl (50-1)
17. Grand Love (50-1)
18. Guns n’ Graces (40-1)
19. Homecoming Queen (99-1)
20. Hoosier Philly (15-1)
21. Interpolate (30-1)
22. Julia Shining (12-1)
23. Justique (40-1)
24. Merlazza (99-1)
25. Mimi Kakushi (80-1)
26. Miracle (20-1)
27. Munnys Gold (30-1)
28. Occult (20-1)
29. Pretty Mischievous (10-1)
30. Punchbowl (20-1)
31. Red Carpet Ready (15-1)
32. Royal Spa (50-1)
33. Seduction (50-1)
34. She’s Lookin Lucky (30-1)
35. Shidabluti (15-1)
36. Southlawn (20-1)
37. The Alys Look (15-1)
38. Wet Paint (12-1)
39. Wonder Wheel (8-1)
40. All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies (15-1)
NEW SYMBOL IN DRF PAST PERFORMANCES
Daily Racing Form announced this week that its past performance will include a new symbol, a diamond with an X, which denotes when a race has been taken off the turf and moved to a synthetic surface.
I think the DRF should be applauded for this move.
“Since it has been widely acknowledged that synthetic surfaces often play like grass, ‘diamond X races’ theoretically should more consistently maintain the original entries,” the DRF explained. “The handicapper now will be able to use that information to better determine the integrity of an off-the-turf race after scratches. Races moved from turf to dirt often result in greatly reduced field size and are usually dominated by horses entered as main track only.”
I am always in favor of providing horseplayers with useful information. When I was a DRF chart-caller in the 1970s, 1980s and early 1990s, I was ahead of the curve by regularly incorporating how wide a horse had raced into the chart comments. I would write, “raced five wide into the stretch,” rather than just “raced wide into the stretch,” as most chart-callers did back then.
In the late 1990s, when I was working as a handicapper at the DRF’s national headquarters in Phoenix, I made a suggestion to the powers that be in an effort to help horseplayers. When I would start to handicap a race, there would be times when it took me several minutes to try and figure out what the conditions of the race were. Race conditions sometimes can be anything but simple these days.
I suggested that it might be helpful for horseplayers that at the top of each race in the DRF’s past performances, the conditions of said race would be listed just as they were going to appear in a horse’s past performance line. By doing this, a person could see at a glance what the race’s conditions are, rather than having to wade through all of the race’s conditions, which at times can be wordy and difficult for many to decipher. Needless to say, I was pleased when the DRF made the decision to do this.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 334 Art Collector (26)
2. 281 Country Grammer (6)
3. 272 Elite Power (3)
4. 187 Stilleto Boy
5. 117 Cody’s Wish
6. 99 Atone
7. 97 Nest
8. 83 Defunded
9. 77 Taiba
10. 62 Proxy
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 358 Forte (34)
2. 300 Arabian Knight (1)
3. 238 Practical Move (1)
3. 230 Instant Coffee
5. 137 Confidence Game
6. 104 Angel of Empire
7. 92 Rocket Can
8. 85 Cave Rock
9. 78 Hit Show
10. 54 Tapit Trice
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