Newly turned 3YOs take center stage later this afternoon when the Road to the Kentucky Derby hits its first stops of 2026. A pair of 10-points to the winner races headline the afternoon along with a strong edition of the Macho Macho Man, which gets the Road to the Florida Derby started in Hallandale Beach. Not only do I love watching these horses progress throughout their early races, but often times these preps can lead to great betting opportunities. Hopefully, we can find a few good ones over the course of the next few months. Here is who I like this afternoon in New York, Florida, and Hot Springs, Arkansas.
Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct: (1:10 PM eastern)
The first of the Derby preps goes as Race 3 on Aqueduct’s 9-race card that gets started at 12:10 PM local time. With #5 Mailata likely to scratch after winning by a pole at Parx on December 30, we are probably down to a field of 4 where #3 My World looks like a standout. The well-bred son of Essential Quality is out of an Into Mischief mare, who earned well over $300k over the grass throughout her 36-race career. This could play well over the Churchill Downs main track in May, but on the track the colt has been good, but not great thus far. He had a forgivable debut where he was buried down on the rail against a solid group of 2YOs at Saratoga before a pair of workmanlike wins over this surface. I expect the Brad Cox trainee to be very tough to beat this afternoon, but a potential play against moving forward. Time will tell.
Pick: #3 My World (7-5 ML)
Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream (4:48 PM eastern)
No Derby points will be on the line, but that does not mean this year’s Macho Macho Man over the one-turn mile configuration at Gulfstream lacks Road to the Derby appeal. There actually appears to be multiple runners entered that have their eyes set on Louisville early in the year, including a pair of runners shipping in from the Blue Grass State. With plenty of early zip signed on, the race shape should benefit both 7-5-ML favorite #1 Commandment and #6 Tripp’s Promise. Both runners last raced over the Churchill Downs main track in competitive fields and have already exemplified the ability to settle early and finish with energy.
I like Commandment most, but he will be too short of a price to bet on the Win end, so I will tie the two up in a cold exacta with the chalk on top. The son of Into Mischief got a great learning experience first out against a live group of 2YOs at Keeneland before progressing nicely in his maiden victory in Louisville on November 1. He has been down in Florida since. Tripp’s Promise has yet to cross the wire first since his maiden victory in late September, but has made a strong account of himself against quality competition. Look for jockey Corey Lanerie to angle over, save ground early, and come with a strong run late. I expect it to be good enough to pass most, if not all of the field, for potential future Senator Dale Romans.
Play: Exacta 1-6
Smarty Jones at Oaklawn (5:25 eastern)
The last of the 3 early 3YO races goes as Race 10 on Oaklawn Park’s 11-race slate that starts at 1PM eastern and contains a few intriguing prospects. 5-2-ML favorite #5 Rancho Santa Fe has rattled off two wins to kick off his career and has the look of a colt that can run all day, while 3-1-second choice #1 Universe has kept the best company and draws favorably along the inside. Both have strong chances to earn 10 points on the Derby leaderboard this afternoon, as well as #3 Boca Beach Club stretching out to two turns off two sprints for Jimmy DiVito, but I prefer the “other” McPeek.
#9 Sleepingonfreedom sold for just $60k at the Keeneland September 2024 sale, so he made his first couple of starts against restricted maiden special weight company. He ran well in both sprints, including his first victory, which came at the 6.5-furlong distance on October 11. From there, he was eligible for a starter allowance and was able to win going away over an off track despite a ton of traffic issues before he found clear sailing. The Independence Hall colt has progressed nicely, finished strong in his first attempt at a route of ground, and retains the services of McPeek’s main man Brian Hernandez Jr. The fact Hernandez opts for this colt over Universe potentially tells us quite a bit. He should move forward this afternoon in his toughest task to date.
Pick: #9 Sleepingonfreedom
Plays: Win Bet 9, Exacta Box 3-9
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