This year, like last year, I wrote before the Kentucky Derby that the race was “loaded with viable candidates that possess the credentials to be posing in the winner’s circle after around two minutes of equine combat is over.”
What happened in 2022? Rich Strike pulled off a shocking win in the $3 million Churchill Downs classic at the gigantic odds of 80-1. It was the second-biggest upset in the history of this country’s longest continuously run sporting event, topped only by 91-1 Donerail in 1913.
Rich Strike prevailed by three-quarters of a length last year. He returned $163.60 for each $2 bet on him to win.
This year’s Run for the Roses also had an upset winner, but nothing compared to Rich Strike.
Mage, as far back as 16th early in the field of 18, generated a rally that produced a one-length victory at odds of 15-1. He returned $32.42 for each $2 win wager.
Mage thumbed his nose at the so-called Apollo jinx, just as Justify did in 2018.
Apollo won the 1882 Kentucky Derby without having raced as a 2-year-old. This feat would not be duplicated for 136 years until Justify came along in 2018. And now Mage has done it.
While there have been 13 winners of the coveted Triple Crown, Mage is just one of three members in the very small club that consists of Kentucky Derby winners who didn’t start at 2.
Mage also has become a member in another small club, that consisting of Kentucky Derby winners from 1900 through 2023 to have made three or fewer previous career starts. The only four to have achieved this are Regret in 1915, Big Brown in 2008, Justify in 2018 and now Mage in 2023.
How about the fact that two of the four most inexperienced Kentucky Derby winners in over a century are Big Brown and Mage? Big Brown is the maternal grandsire of Mage.
Mage’s sire, Good Magic, finished second to Justify in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Meanwhile, it’s truly wonderful that jockey Javier Castellano got the monkey off his back by finally winning the Kentucky Derby aboard Mage. The Hall of Famer had been 0-15.
In fairness to Castellano, it’s not as if he had ridden a bunch of horses in the Derby at low odds. Of his 15 losses coming into this year’s renewal, only four started at odds of 9-1 or lower.
Castellano’s Kentucky Derby record is below:
Year Finish Horse (Odds)
2023 1 MAGE (15-1)
2021 9 Highly Motivated (10-1)
2020 13 Money Moves (13-1)
2019 12 Vekoma (16-1)
2018 3 Audible (7-1)
2017 7 Gunnevera (10-1)
2016 6 Dustin (18-1)
2015 6 Materiality (11-1)
2014 10 Wee Miss Artie (27-1)
2013 4 Normandy Invasion (9-1)
2012 16 Gemologist (8-1)
2011 13 Derby Kitten (36-1)
2010 13 Discreetly Mine (31-1)
2008 18 Big Truck (28-1)
2007 15 Bwana Bull (50-1)
2005 7 Bellamy Road (5-2 favorite)
Castellano is a native of Venezuela. A Venezuelan-born rider, Sonny Leon, also won last year’s Kentucky Derby aboard Rich Strike.
Mage is the first Kentucky Derby winner for Venezuelan-born trainer Gustavo Delgado. The only two previous Derby starters for Delgado were Majesto, who finished 18th at 56-1 in 2016, and Bodexpress, who ran 13th at 71-1 as a maiden in 2019.
Bodexpress was one of the three horses bothered when Maximum Security veered out on the far turn during the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Maximum Security went on to finish first, but then was disqualified and placed 17th by the stewards for causing interference.
Two weeks later in the Preakness Stakes, Bodexpress reared at the start and unseated jockey John Velazquez.
Delgado won the Triple Crown four times in his native Venezuela, according to BloodHorse’s Byron King. Delgado long has dreamed of winning the Kentucky Derby, something fellow Venezuelan trainer Juan Arias accomplished in 1971 with the remarkable Canonero II. Arias once worked for Delgado.
Sent to the U.S. from Venezuela, Canonero II became one of the most improbable Kentucky Derby winners in history, rallying from far back, just as Mage did this year.
After being 18th early in the field of 20, Canonero II stormed home to win the Derby going away by 3 3/4 lengths. Proving that was not a fluke, two weeks later he set a track record when victorious in the Preakness Stakes. Canonero then attempted a Triple Crown sweep in the Belmont Stakes before a raucous Belmont Park crowd of 82,694, but it was not to be. He finished fourth.
This is the second straight year in which the Kentucky Derby winner was eligible to run in a race restricted to non-winners of two races lifetime. Following Rich Strike’s victory last year, he has lost six straight. Last Friday (May 5), Rich Strike lost by 16 3/4 lengths when he finished fifth in Churchill’s Grade II Alysheba Stakes.
Graded stakes races were introduced in the United States in 1973. During all this time, Mage is only the sixth horse to capture the Kentucky Derby without having previously won a graded race. The others were Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005 and Rich Strike in 2022. Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.
By the way, I recently predicted on Steve Byk’s SiriusXM radio program At the Races that there probably would not be any huge longshots higher than 50-1 this year after Rich Strike’s win at 80-1 last year. This did indeed turn out to be the case. Nobody this year went off higher than the 33-1 odds for Raise Cain (who finished eighth), Sun Thunder (11th) and Jace’s Road (17th).
BEYER SPEED FIGURE FOR TWO PHIL’S QUESTIONED
Mage completed his 1 1/4-mile journey in a respectable 2:01.57. He was credited with a 105 Beyer Speed Figure.
What puzzles me are the Beyers assigned to Two Phil’s, who finished second, and Angel of Empire, who came in third.
Mage won by one length. Considering the size of that margin, it doesn’t make sense to me that Two Phil’s also received a 105 Beyer.
The margin between Two Phil’s and Angel of Empire was only a half-length. And that means they received the same Beyer, right? Nope. Even though only a half-length separated them, Angel of Empire’s Beyer is a 104.
As a guest Monday (May 8) on Byk’s SiriusXM radio program, Andy Beyer was asked about why Mage and Two Phil’s each got a 105, while Angel of Empire got a 104.
“When you’re dealing with small fractions, the way the fractions are rounded off created a kind of like a one-point, what looks like an aberration,” Beyer said. “Sometimes you will have a case where two horses are within a nose of each other, and one horse will get a point higher. There’s nothing wrong there. It’s just sometimes the numbers have to be rounded off.”
Beyer has often talked about how he wants his figures to, as much as possible, reflect a horse’s performances. That’s why sometimes, when something looks out of whack, such as every horse in race getting by far a bigger figure than ever before, the decision is made to make an adjustment and lower those figures. I have always said that I think that’s a good thing.
But the way I see it, in keeping with how Beyer Speed Figures usually go, it would be much more appropriate -- and logical -- for Mage to get a 105, Two Phil’s a 104 and Angel of Empire a 104.
There are those who are of the opinion that Mage’s 105 Beyer Speed Figure is higher than it should be. It matches American Pharoah’s figure when he won the roses in 2015 en route to a Triple Crown sweep.
“This was a number that inspired a lot of discussion among me and my colleagues,” Beyer said of Mage’s 105 figure on Byk’s show Monday. “Normally, if we make a figure and it comes up extremely high or low relative to how the horses have been running in the past, I immediately suspect that there was some aberration of the track or the timer. Of the top five finishers in the Derby, leaving aside Two Phil’s, who had run well [a 101 Beyer] on synthetic, nobody had run a figure higher than 94. And so for the race to earn a figure of 105 seemed a little implausible to me.
“I discussed this at great length with my partner Mark Hopkins and fig-maker Randy Moss. And what we observed, what Randy argued, is the Churchill Downs track had been totally consistent on Friday and Saturday. We had the exact same track variant for every stakes race [on dirt]. And so the fact that the track had not been changing, that there was no evident aberration anywhere in two days, we decided that we had to take the evidence at face value.
“Do I believe that Mage and company ran as fast as American Pharoah [and company] when he won the Derby? I don’t know. We’re certainly going to be watching the Preakness with interest to see what kind of numbers these horses earn when they run back. But based on the evidence that we’ve got, I have to say that this group of horses may have been a lot better than most people, including me, thought.”
Keep in mind that while Mage received a 105 Beyer in this year’s Kentucky Derby, a 105 is the exact same figure posted by Early Voting when he captured last year’s Preakness.
Below are Beyer Speed Figures for Kentucky Derby winners going back to 1989 (the first year they were listed in the American Racing Manual):
2023 Mage (105)
2022 Rich Strike (101)
2021 Mandaloun (101)*
2020 Authentic (105)
2019 Country House (99)**
2018 Justify (103)
2017 Always Dreaming (102)
2016 Nyquist (103)
2015 American Pharoah (105)
2014 California Chrome (97)
2013 Orb (104)
2012 I’ll Have Another (101)
2011 Animal Kingdom (103)
2010 Super Saver (104)
2009 Mine That Bird (105)
2008 Big Brown (109)
2007 Street Sense (110)
2006 Barbaro (111)
2005 Giacomo (100)
2004 Smarty Jones (107)
2003 Funny Cide (109)
2002 War Emblem (114)
2001 Monarchos (116)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (108)
1999 Charismatic (108)
1998 Real Quiet (107)
1997 Silver Charm (115)
1996 Grindstone (112)
1995 Thunder Gulch (108)
1994 Go for Gin (112)
1993 Sea Hero (105)
1992 Lil E. Tee (107)
1991 Strike the Gold (not listed)
1990 Unbridled (not listed)
1989 Sunday Silence (102)
*Medina Spirit (102 Beyer) finished first but was disqualified and forfeited all purse money due to a medication violation, with Mandaloun being declared the winner
**Country House finished second but was placed first after Maximum Security (101 Beyer) was disqualified from first and placed 17th for causing interference
DERBY WINNER ONCE AGAIN ONE-TWO A FURLONG OUT
As I often have written, when it comes to trying to pick the winner of the Kentucky Derby, I look for horses to have indicated that they are capable of being either first or second with a furlong to go in the Derby. That’s because prior to this year, 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second a furlong out.
Now you can make that 57 of the last 61.
Even though Mage was a little more than 13 lengths behind early, he rallied to be second, just a head off the lead, a furlong from the finish.
I was impressed with Mage when he passed opponents with a rush on the far turn in Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Florida Derby on April 1. But then he had to settle for second when overtaken late by Forte.
I was against Forte in the Kentucky Derby, especially at his low odds as the likely favorite. I didn’t like Forte’s Beyer Speed Figure pattern in his most recent three starts: 100, 98, 95.
I also didn’t like the fact that Forte had been third with a furlong to go in both the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream and the Florida Derby.
It turned out that Forte, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2022, was not allowed to compete in the Kentucky Derby.
“Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable’s morning-line favorite Forte was scratched from Kentucky Derby 149 Saturday [May 6] at 9 a.m. by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission state veterinarian,” a Churchill Downs press release said. “Co-owner Mike Repole stated that the state veterinarians had concerns about a bruised right front foot.
“Forte is the fifth horse to scratch from Saturday’s race, joining Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar and Skinner. The last time five horses were scratched from the Kentucky Derby was 1936 when 19 horses entered the race and 14 ran.”
Bold Venture won the 1936 Kentucky Derby in a 20-1 upset.
In an unusual turn of events, three horses -- Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell -- scratched into this year’s Kentucky Derby from the also-eligible list.
“The flurry of scratches in the lead-up to the race certainly makes this year’s Kentucky Derby one of the wackiest in recent memory in terms of who’s in and who’s out at the last minute,” I was quoted by John Cherwa as saying in the Los Angeles Times last Friday (May 5). “Rich Strike got into the race at the eleventh hour last year and then won it in the second-biggest upset in Derby history.
“Who would have ever thought that one year later not one, not two, but three horses would get into the race from the also-eligible list? It just goes to prove yet again that when it comes to horse racing, it’s usually a good idea to expect the unexpected.”
Largely because I didn’t like Forte, I was anti-Mage in this year’s Kentucky Derby, as was Andy Beyer.
“Mage had made only three career starts, no racing at two, the kind of light campaign that usually never succeeds in the Derby,” Beyer remarked Monday. “I think I said somewhere that he can’t be in the Top 10.”
Well, Mage was not on my final Kentucky Derby Top 10. And to further illustrate that I wasn’t aboard when it came to Mage, I bet Churchill’s all dirt stakes pick five and used nine horses, not including Mage, in the Kentucky Derby. My single, Cody’s Wish, did win. But when Mage won, I lost. The 50-cent all dirt stakes pick five paid $3,757.10.
The nine horses in the Kentucky Derby on my all dirt stakes pick five were Two Phil’s (who finished second), Angel Of Empire (third), Disarm (fourth), Derma Sotogake (sixth), Tapit Trice (seventh), Confidence Game (10th), Mandarin Hero (12th), Kingsbarns (14th) and Verifying (16th).
It just goes to show yet again what a tough game this can be when one loses a pick five despite being alive to those nine horses for a potential payoff ranging from $2,044 to $13,938.
MY ORIGINAL TOP PICK SCRATCHED
The Kentucky Derby was so much fun for me 50 years ago. I not only picked Secretariat to win, I predicted in my high school newspaper sports column that he would become a Triple Crown winner. The Monday after Secretariat won the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby in 1:59 2/5 to break Northern Dancer’s track record by three-fifths of a second, all day long classmates (and even some teachers) were congratulating me for making such a good pick.
By contrast, this year’s Kentucky Derby was disappointing for me after my top pick, Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move, was scratched due to an elevated temperature, according to trainer Tim Yakteen.
Practical Move was listed at 10-1 on the Kentucky Derby morning line. But I had a $200 bet on him at 83-1 odds that I made on Feb. 12 in Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) for a potential profit of nearly $17,000.
Also on Feb. 12, I put $200 on Kingsbarns in the KDFW at odds of 35-1 for a potential profit of $7,000.
Kingsbarns, winner of the Grade II Louisiana Derby, became my top pick in the Kentucky Derby after Practical Move was scratched.
Like Mage, Kingsbarns did not race as a 2-year-old. Like Mage, Kingsbarns came into this year’s Kentucky Derby with just three races under his belt. But unlike Mage, Kingsbarns did not win the Kentucky Derby.
Many expected the early pace to be moderate this year, unlike the ridiculously torrid early tempo last year of :21.78 for the first quarter and :45.36 for the opening half. But this year’s preliminary fractions of :22.35 and :45.73 still were pretty darn fast.
I got a brief thrill -- very brief -- when Kingsbarns actually had a one-length lead going into the far turn. But Kingsbarns’ one-length advantage lasted for only about as long as you can say his name before he was passed by a full-of-run Two Phil’s. Paying the price for being involved in such a swift early pace, Kingsbarns faltered badly and finished 14th.
Though I did lose my $200 future bets on Practical Move and Kingsbarns, I did cash a $200 future book that I made on March 12 in the only Kentucky Oaks Future Wager Pool offered by Churchill Downs. That $200 wager returned $3,344.00.
I also liked my wagers on the “all other 3-year-olds” option in KDFW Pool 1 on Nov. 3, Pool 2 on Nov. 27 and Pool 3 on Jan. 22. Thanks to Mage, I won all three of those future bets.
Mage was among the “all other 3-year-olds” in all three of those Nov. 3, Nov. 27 and Jan. 22 pools, which is understandable inasmuch as he didn’t make his first career start until Jan. 28.
I bet $1,400 at odds of 4-5 on “all other 3-year-olds” in Pool 1. It returned $2,576.00.
I bet $1,000 at odds of 4-5 on “all other 3-year-olds” in Pool 2. It returned $1,960.00.
I bet $500 at odds of 2-1 on “all other 3-year-olds” in Pool 3. It returned $1,364.00.
My total of $2,900 wagered on the “all other 3-year-olds” option in those three pools produced a $2,000 profit.
MARVELOUS EFFORT BY THE DERBY RUNNER-UP
I think second-place finisher Two Phil’s deserves a tremendous amount of credit for running so well in defeat.
Two Phil’s “was the only horse in close proximity to the pace to still be around at the finish,” Daily Racing Form’s David Grening pointed out.
By finishing second, Two Phil’s followed in the footsteps of his sire, Hard Spun, who ran second to Street Sense in the 2007 Kentucky Derby.
Two Phil’s went into the Kentucky Derby off a dominant victory on a synthetic surface in Turfway Park’s Grade III Jeff Ruby. Hard Spun went into the Derby off a dominant win on a synthetic surface at Turfway in the same race, which at that time was the Grade II Lane’s End.
Two Phil’s brings to mind rather similar Kentucky Derby performances by Congaree and Bodemeister. Congaree and Bodemeister both stayed on well enough to hit the board after attending a rapid pace. Congaree finished third to Monarchos and Invisible Ink in 2001. Bodemeister finished second to I’ll Have Another in 2012.
UAE DERBY RECORD TAKES ANOTHER HIT
Randy Moss of NBC Sports and Andy Beyer of the Beyer Speed Figures, plus David Grening, Marcus Hersh and Michael Hammersly of the Daily Racing Form, were among the many who made emphatic 5 1/2-length UAE Derby winner Dermo Sotogake their top pick in the Kentucky Derby.
They were perfectly willing to dismiss the dismal record by UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish by 19 UAE starters in the Kentucky Derby through this year continues to be fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011.
The best finish by a winner of the UAE Derby was sixth by China Visit in 2000.
Derma Sotogake was sent away at 7-1 in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Only the favorite, 4-1 Angel of Empire, and 9-2 second choice Tapit Trice started at lower odds than Derma Sotogake.
One of the reasons Derma Sotogake received as much respect from bettors is the success Japanese horses have been enjoying in big races all over the globe. Not only did Derma Sotogake trounce his UAE Derby foes, he led a 1-2-3-4 sweep in the Grade II event by Japanese runners.
Derma Sotogake’s final time in the UAE Derby was 1:55.81, making it the second-fastest since the race’s distance was changed to 1,900 meters, or about 1 3/16 miles, in 2010. The fastest time at this distance was Mendelssohn’s 1:55.18 when he won by 18 1/2 lengths in 2018.
Mendelssohn was 6-1 in Kentucky Derby wagering. He didn’t break sharply, got banged around early and wound up last in a field of 20 on a sloppy track.
After winning the UAE Derby in front-running fashion, Derma Sotogake, like Mendelssohn, didn’t break sharply in the Kentucky Derby, which found him racing 14th early, much farther back than most had envisioned.
I think Derma Sotogake actually did well under the circumstances. He managed to improve his position from 14th early to sixth at the finish.
But the bottom line is Derma Sotogake this year added to the growing list of UAE Derby also-rans in the Kentucky Derby. I just don’t see myself backing any UAE Derby starter in the Run for the Roses anytime soon, not until they prove that they can get the job done. I say this as someone who scoffed at the abysmal Kentucky Derby record for UAE Derby runners and bet $1,000 to win on UAE Derby winner Thunder Snow at 16-1 in the 2017 Run for the Roses. But Thunder Snow did a terrific imitation of a bucking bronco shortly after the start and was pulled up in the Kentucky Derby, then later won a pair of Dubai World Cups.
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM
Mage joins Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes in my Derby Strikes System, which I developed in 1999.
The purpose of the DSS is to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
A number of the categories in the Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Thus, when the 2020 running was changed from May 2 to Sept. 5 because of COVID, the Derby Strikes System was unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby returned to its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021 and 2022, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
The DSS consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
History shows that even with Mage’s victory this year, a horse with zero strikes or one strike does have a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more.
Coming into this year’s Kentucky Derby, according to the DSS and excluding the 2020 renewal when the race was run in September, 83% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 49) had zero strikes or one strike going back to 1973.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
Mage had three strikes. One strike was because he had not won a graded stakes race. Another was for getting passed in the final furlong of the Florida Derby. And his third strike was for not having raced as a 2-year-old.
The strike for getting passed in the final furlong of the Florida Derby stemmed from Mage making his move much too early, leaving him vulnerable to get overhauled late by Forte. Luis Saez rode Mage in the Florida Derby. One of the reasons Mage won the Kentucky Derby is Castellano did not move too soon this time.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Mage is the first Kentucky Derby winner with three strikes.
Mine That Bird in 2009 had four strikes.
The number of strikes for each of this year’s Kentucky Derby starters in order of how they finished is listed below:
(Strikes) Horse, Finish (Categories)
(3) Mage, 1st (Categories 2, 4 and 7)
(1) Two Phil’s, 2nd (Category 4)
(0) Angel of Empire, 3rd
(2) Disarm, 4th (Categories 2 and 3)
(0) Hit Show, 5th
(0) Derma Sotogake, 6th
(0) Tapit Trice, 7th
(1) Raise Cain, 8th (Category 5)
(1) Rocket Can, 9th (Category 5)
(1) Confidence Game, 10th (Category 5)
(2) Sun Thunder, 11th (Categories 2 and 3)
(2) Mandarin Hero, 12th (Categories 1 and 2)
(1) Reincarnate, 13th (Category 4)
(1) Kingsbarns, 14th (Cagegory 7)
(3) King Russell, 15th (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
(2) Verifying, 16th (Categories 2 and 4)
(2) Jace’s Road, 17th (Categories 2 and 4)
(2) Cyclone Mischief, 18th (Categories 2 and 4)
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But the stewards disqualified Maximum Security and placed him 17th for committing a foul when he veered out sharply nearing the five-sixteenths marker to cause interference to War of Will, Bodexpress and Long Range Toddy. Country House was declared the winner of the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. He had zero strikes. But Medina Spirit was disqualified due to testing positive for traces of betamethasone, a medication that is legal to use but not on race day.
The strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
The eight categories in my Derby Strikes System are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 60 Kentucky Derby winners through 2022 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023.) Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 2 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
FORTE FAVORED IN PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGER
The first Preakness Future Wager was offered last week. Betting closed at 6 p.m. ET on Saturday (May 6), less than an hour before the Kentucky Derby was run.
If you were shrewd enough to bet Mage in the Preakness Future Wager before he took care of business in the Kentucky Derby, your Preakness price is locked in at 24-1, far higher than it will be if he starts in the middle leg of the Triple Crown.
As mentioned earlier, Forte was not allowed to start in the Kentucky Derby. He was scratched by the stewards on the recommendation of the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission state veterinarian (who is Nick Smith), the issue being a bruised right front foot.
Despite being scratched from the Kentucky Derby, Forte was backed down to 4-1 favoritism in the Preakness Future Wager.
However, on Monday (May 8), the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission issued a statement regarding Forte that effectively removes any possibility of him running in the Preakness.
This underscores the risk involved with any future wager in which there are no refunds. Anyone who bet on Forte in the Preakness Future Wager evidently has lost that money.
“The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission has the following update on Forte,” the commission’s statement began. “Forte was scratched from the Kentucky Derby by KHRC veterinarians following Saturday’s routine soundness checks. As is the case with all KHRC veterinary scratches related to soundness, and pursuant to HISA Rule 2241(a), this places Forte on a mandatory 14-day veterinary list. After 14 days, the requirements for removal from the list include a satisfactory workout performance for a state regulatory veterinarian and a negative blood sample result.”
The Preakness will be run on May 20, 14 days after the Kentucky Derby.
Daily Racing Form’s Matt Hegarty reported that “Forte bobbled during a videotaped gallop on Thursday (May 4) at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Derby. Trainer Todd Pletcher had the colt fitted with a three-quarter shoe afterwards.”
Pletcher “also said that Forte had suffered a foot bruise, which is typically a mild injury to a horse,” Hegarty added. “On Saturday morning, the day of the race, prior to the examination, he was re-fitted with a full shoe and galloped a mile and a quarter.”
According to the Thoroughbred Daily News, Forte galloped Monday morning at Churchill, after which Pletcher said: “He looked very good. He galloped a mile and three-eighths very comfortably. Seemed happy like he normally is. He’ll probably work Friday [May 12] or Saturday.”
The Paulick Report had a story Tuesday (May 9) on Forte under the headline: KHRC, HISA Rules On Vet Scratches Leave Forte’s Preakness Status Up In The Air
But the truth of the matter is that, as of May 10, there is no “up in the air” about this. With Forte being placed on a 14-day vet’s list, there can be no Preakness for him.
Daily Racing Form and BloodHorse headlines did not equivocate, unlike the Paulick Report.
The DRF headline: Forte placed on 14-day Kentucky vet’s list; will not be able to run in Preakness
The BloodHorse headline: Forte Placed on Vet’s List, Will Miss Preakness Stakes
As for the Preakness Future Wager, I wrote for Xpressbet.com that I had planned to put some money on First Mission if the price was right. He was listed at 15-1 on the morning line.
I also wrote that I had some interest in possibly putting some money on Mandarin Hero and/or Instant Coffee.
It turned out that I didn’t put any money on anybody. First Mission’s final odds were 9-1, too low for me vis-a-vis his morning line price. It didn’t surprise me that he ended up being that much lower than his morning line.
I lost interest in betting Mandarin Hero once he got into the Kentucky Derby from the also-eligible list.
And while I did think Instant Coffee was a decent enough price at 40-1, I decided not to bet him, primarily because I wasn’t absolutely certain at the time that the Preakness is definitely on his agenda.
Sometimes it’s just a good idea to keep your money in your pocket. And so I did. Handle on the first Preakness Future Wager topped $300,000, making it the largest Triple Crown future wager pool of the year.
Below are the final odds reported by Pimlico for Preakness Future Wager:
4-1 Forte
6-1 Tapit Trice
9-1 Angel of Empire
9-1 First Mission
11-1 Tapit Trice
13-1 Derma Sotogake
15-1 Mandarin Hero
17-1 Practical Move
18-1 Kingsbarns
19-1 All Other 3-Year-Olds
23-1 Blazing Sevens
24-1 Confidence Game
24-1 Mage
25-1 Two Phil’s
30-1 Red Route One
30-1 Verifying
35-1 Skinner
40-1 Disarm
40-1 Hit Show
40-1 Instant Coffee
45-1 Cyclone Mischief
50-1 Reincarnate
60-1 Chase the Chaos
60-1 Jace’s Road
60-1 Lord Miles
60-1 Rocket Can
70-1 Sun Thunder
SCR Continuar
SCR Wild On Ice
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 286 Cody’s Wish (13)
2. 276 Elite Power (15)
3. 215 Proxy (2)
4. 159 Art Collector (2)
5. 153 Clairiere
6. 152 Smile Happy (1)
7. 84 Stilleto Boy
8. 63 Defunded
9. 61 West Will Power
10. 56 In Italian
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 331 Mage (21)
2. 300 Forte (13)
3. 280 Two Phil’s
4. 257 Angel of Empire
5. 134 Tapit Trice
6. 133 Practical Move (1)
7. 115 Disarm
8. 81 Hit Show
9. 60 Pretty Mischievous
10. 52 First Mission
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