Inasmuch as it’s the first week of 2024, some horseplayers find themselves looking ahead to the first Saturday in May and this year’s 150th running of the coveted Kentucky Derby. The 1 1/4-mile classic will be contested on May 4.
With Derby dreams in mind, two stakes races for newly turned 3-year-olds will be contested this Saturday (Jan. 6).
Five are entered in Aqueduct’s Jerome Stakes, a one-mile affair around one turn. From the rail out, the field consists of Drum Roll Please Khanate, Sweet Soddy J, El Grande O and Regalo.
Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes, a seven-furlong sprint, has attracted a field of six. From the rail out, the lineup is made up of Moonlit Sonata, Slider, Muth, Pilot Commander, Formidable Man and Boltage.
Drum Roll Please, trained by Brad Cox, is my top choice in the Jerome. After losing his first two starts, both at Saratoga, he won a one-mile maiden race at Aqueduct on Oct. 6.
In Drum Roll Please’s final start at 2, I thought he ran pretty well in the Big A’s Grade II Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on a muddy track Dec. 2. Seventh early in the field of 10, he made a strong move on the far turn while racing wide.
“Here comes a big run from Drum Roll Please,” said track announcer Chris Griffin.
However, Drum Roll Please could not sustain his rally in the stretch. In the final furlong, Dornoch and Sierra Leone raced well clear of Drum Roll Please. That was no disgrace for Drum Roll Please, though, insofar as narrow Remsen winner Dornoch and Remsen runner-up Sierra Leone are both on my Kentucky Derby Top 10.
In his second career start, Drum Roll Please ran second to Locked, who also is on my Kentucky Derby Top 10.
It was to Drum Roll Please’s credit that he not only ran well enough to get the show in the Remsen, he finished 2 1/2 lengths clear of fourth.
The Jerome seems to be a winnable race for Drum Roll Please. The way I see it, after going nine furlongs in the Remsen, he won’t mind the Jerome’s shorter eight-furlong trip.
Below are my Jerome Stakes selections:
1. Drum Roll Please
2. El Grande O
3. Regalo
4. Khanate
Turning to the San Vicente, Muth looks formidable and is my top pick.
In four starts to date, Muth has logged Beyer Speed Figures of 90, 93, 91 and 95. No one else in the San Vicente has ever recorded a Beyer higher than 86.
An 86 was the Beyer Speed Figure for Slider the last time he ran on the dirt. It was a three-length win in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden sprint at Del Mar on Sept. 9.
Slider then competed twice on Santa Anita’s grass course. He won the Speakeasy Stakes (76 Beyer), then finished ninth in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (74 Beyer) for trainer John Sadler.
Hall of Famer Bob Baffert trains Muth, who won Santa Anita’s Grade I American Pharoah Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths in October (91 Beyer). He then ran second to Fierceness in the Grade I BC Juvenile in November (95 Beyer).
Even though Muth did not win the BC Juvenile, he still managed to outrun such well-regarded 2-year-olds as Locked, Timberlake and Prince of Monaco.
Muth currently ranks No. 7 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10.
Below are my San Vicente selections:
1. Muth
2. Slider
3. Pilot Commander
4. Moonlit Sonata
CURRENT KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
Following a dominant debut victory at Gulfstream Park last Saturday (Dec. 30), Born Noble debuts all the way up at No. 5 on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week.
Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Born Noble raced greenly in the lane, yet still won on a wet track listed as “good” by a widening 5 1/2 lengths. The $725,000 yearling auction purchase is a Kentucky-bred Constitution colt.
Born Noble “looks to have tremendous upside,” Steve Byk said Wednesday (Jan. 3) on his SiriusXM radio program At the Races.
Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas told me years ago that he felt that seven furlongs was the toughest distance for a horse, particularly a first-time starter. Born Noble’s maiden victory came in a seven-furlong race.
Another newcomer on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week is Catching Freedom, who like Born Noble is a Kentucky-bred Constitution colt.
A $575,000 yearling, Catching Freedom was eighth early in the field of nine and rallied to win Oaklawn Park’s Smarty Jones Stakes by 2 1/2 lengths at 1 1/16 miles on Monday for Cox.
Born Noble was credited with a 93 Beyer Speed Figure for his maiden win, while Catching Freedom received an 87 for his Smarty Jones score.
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:
1. Fierceness
2. Nysos
3. Locked
4. Nash
5. Born Noble
6. El Capi
7. Muth
8. Sierra Leone
9. Dornoch
10. Catching Freedom
Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order): Carbone, Change of Command, First World War, Honor Marie, Imagination, Knightsbridge, Lightline, Maymun, Otello, Otto the Conqueror, Parchment Party, The Wine Steward, Timberlake, Track Phantom, Wynstock,
TOP 10 PERFORMANCES OF 2023
It’s time for my annual list of the Top 10 performances by a Thoroughbred in the United States during the previous year. I have compiled such a list each year for Xpressbet.com going all the way back to the 2004 racing year.
A Thoroughbred’s performance can make this list for a variety of reasons, such as:
--A win by a big margin while showing brilliance.
--Recording a fast final time and/or speed figure.
--Being especially game in victory or defeat.
--Overcoming adversity.
--Defeating a particularly strong group of opponents.
--Carrying more weight than usual and/or spotting considerable weight.
--Achieving something historic or unusual.
The importance of the race itself also plays a role in determining whether or not I believe a performance deserves to make the list.
Below are my choices for the Top 10 performances by a Thoroughbred in the United States during 2023:
10. ECHO ZULU in Saratoga’s Grade II Honorable Miss Handicap at six furlongs on dirt July 26. (Owned by L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds; trained by Steve Asmussen; ridden by Florent Geroux; 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Gun Runner filly.) Beyer Speed Figure 112.
Granted, Echo Zulu defeated just three opponents in this race. But talk about a performance that was impressive both visually and from a speed figure standpoint.
Echo Zulu, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old filly of 2021, showed her typical early zip in the 2023 Honorable Miss and drew off in the stretch to win by 7 1/4 lengths as the overwhelming 2-5 favorite. Her 112 Beyer for this win tied for the highest figure of 2023. The other 112 Beyers were Cody’s Wish’s Met Mile and Echo Zulu’s Ballerina Handicap.
Unfortunately, Echo Zulu’s racing career abruptly came to an end when she was injured in an Oct. 13 workout at Santa Anita while preparing for the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.
You can view the 2023 Honorable Miss Handicap on YouTube (Frank Mirahmadi has the call).
9. FIERCENESS in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita at 1 1/16 miles on dirt Nov. 3. (Owned Repole Stable; trained by Todd Pletcher; ridden by John Velazquez; Kentucky-bred 2-year-old City of Light colt.) Beyer Speed Figure 105.
This, to me, was the finest performance by a 2-year-old, male or female, in 2023. Fierceness won emphatically by 6 1/4 lengths while completing 1 1/16 miles in an praiseworthy 1:41.90. He recorded a 105 Beyer Speed Figure.
You can view the 2023 BC Juvenile on YouTube (Larry Collmus has the call).
When Fierceness kicked off his racing career in the mud at Saratoga, he trounced his foes and won by 11 1/4 lengths, an effort that produced a 95 Beyer. But then the youngster ran a clunker in the Grade I Champagne on a sloppy track Oct. 7, a race in which he finished seventh and lost by 20 1/4 lengths as a 1-2 favorite.
After Fierceness’ dismal performance in the Champagne, I expected his connections to ship him to Florida to gear up for a 3-year-old campaign. The fact that they went ahead and spent the money to run Fierceness in the BC Juvenile indicated to me that he was live, which was a reason I made him 6-1 on the morning line. His odds at race time were 16-1.
As indication of just how good this performance by Fierceness was, his 105 Beyer was the highest figure by a BC Juvenile winner since Uncle Mo’s 108 in 2010. Repole owned and Pletcher trained Uncle Mo.
In the 40-year history of the BC Juvenile, only five winners have received a bigger Beyer than Fierceness’ 105.
Below are the Beyers of 105 and higher by BC Juvenile winners:
113 War Pass (2007)
109 Success Express (1987)
108 Uncle Mo (2010)
108 Street Sense (2006)
106 Chief’s Crown (1984)
105 Fierceness (2023)
8. ELITE POWER in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Santa Anita at six furlongs on dirt Nov. 4. (Owned by Juddmonte; trained by Bill Mott; ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.; 5-year-old Kentucky-bred Curlin colt.) Beyer Speed Figure 111.
In his career finale, the aptly named Elite Power won the 2023 BC Sprint at Santa Anita after having taken the 2022 renewal at Keeneland.
In the 2023 BC Sprint, Elite Power prevailed by 1 1/2 lengths. His final time was 1:08.34. The 111 Beyer Speed Figure that he received was the best of his 13-race career.
In the 2022 BC Sprint, Elite Power won by 1 1/4 lengths. His final time was 1:09.11. He received a 100 Beyer.
You can view the 2023 BC Sprint on YouTube (Larry Collmus has the call).
Subsequent wins by 2023 BC Sprint vanquished Speed Boat Beach (who finished fourth), The Chosen Vron (fifth) and Hoist the Gold (sixth) certainly flattered Elite Power.
Speed Boat Beach went on to win Santa Anita’s Grade I Malibu Stakes.
The Chosen Vron followed his BC Sprint defeat by winning Del Mar’s Cary Grant Stakes.
After Hoist the Gold’s BC Sprint loss, he won Aqueduct’s Grade II Cigar Mile.
7. AUGUSTE RODIN in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Turf at Santa Anita at 1 1/2 miles on turf Nov. 4. (Owned by Michael Tabor and Derrick Smith; trained by Aidan O’Brien; ridden by Ryan Moore; Irish-bred 3-year-old Deep Impact colt.) Beyer Speed Figure 106.
“He’s a super horse,” trainer Aidan O’Brien said after Auguste Rodin’s 2023 BC Turf victory as the 5-2 favorite.
That is high praise, indeed, coming from a horseman who has won the BC Turf a record seven times -- High Chaparral in 2002 and 2003, St. Nicholas Abbey in 2011, Magician in 2013, Found in 2015, Highland Reel in 2016 and Auguste Rodin in 2023.
Prior to his BC Turf triumph, Auguste Rodin was a three-time Group I winner in Europe during 2023. He captured the prestigious Epsom Derby, the Irish Derby and the Irish Champion Stakes vs. older opponents.
Ryan Moore gave August Rodin a fantastic ride in the BC Turf. They didn’t have the best of trips early.
“It was messy crossing the dirt,” said Moore, who had to steady Auguste Rodin in heavy traffic just before coming into the stretch for the first time.
Moore then saved ground while racing along the inside rail on the backstretch and on the far turn. Turning into the stretch for the run home, 83-1 longshot Balladeer, who had set the pace to that point, began faltering and drifted slightly away from the inside rail. That left a hole for Moore and Auguste Rodin to slip through inside with a quick move to take the lead at the top of the lane. Auguste Rodin went on to win by three-quarters of a length while completing his 1 1/2-mile journey in 2:24.30.
Finishing second in a fine try was American grass star Up to the Mark at 7-2. Japan’s Shahryar ran third at 25-1.
You can view the 2023 BC Turf on YouTube (Larry Collmus has the call).
6. INSPIRAL in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf at Santa Anita at 1 1/4 miles on turf Nov. 4. (Owned by Cheveley Park Stud; trained by John Gosden; ridden by Frankie Dettori; Great Britain-bred 4-year-old Frankel filly.) Beyer Speed Figure 105.
In her first start going farther than one mile, the classy European shipper Inspiral unleashed an electrifying late burst of speed to win the BC Filly & Mare Turf by a neck as the 5-2 favorite. Her final time for 1 1/4 miles was 1:59.06.
Another Euro star, Warm Heart, had to settle for second in a splendid try. Canadian star Moira finished third.
In Inspiral’s two most recent starts going into the BC Filly & Mare Turf, she had won Group I races in France and England.
“I was hoping that Chad Brown’s filly [In Italian] would set stronger fractions,” trainer John Gosden said after Inspiral’s Breeders’ Cup victory. “When I saw 1:12 and change [for six furlongs], I thought, where [Inspiral] was, it would be impossible for her to win on this turf course. But luckily she had the class to go and nail it on the line. Of course, you saw how she galloped out.”
Inspiral was running so strongly while galloping out after the finish that she was seven lengths or so in front of the pack when reaching the clubhouse turn.
“We’ve probably been running her at the wrong trip,” Gosden said with tongue in cheek, suggesting that perhaps Inspiral might have been better off going 1 1/4 miles or farther all along.
You can view the 2023 BC Filly & Mare Turf on YouTube (Larry Collmus has the call).
5. ECHO ZULU in Saratoga’s Grade I Ballerina Handicap at seven furlongs on dirt Aug 26. (Owned by L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds; trained by Steve Asmussen; ridden by Florent Geroux; 4-year-old Kentucky-bred Gun Runner filly.) Beyer Speed Figure 112.
This turned out to be the final start and victory of Echo Zulu’s racing career due to an injury sustained in an Oct. 13 workout at Santa Anita while targeting the BC Filly & Mare Sprint.
Backed down to 3-5 favoritism, Echo Zulu won the Ballerina by 2 1/2 lengths on a muddy track. Her final time was 1:20.95.
Echo Zulu registered a 112 Beyer Speed Figure for her Ballerina victory. This matched the 112 Beyer she recorded in the Honorable Miss Handicap in her most recent start prior to the Ballerina. As mentioned earlier, Echo Zulu’s pair of 112 Beyers tied with Cody’s Wish’s 112 for winning the Met Mile as the highest figures of 2023.
There are two main reasons why Echo Zulu’s Ballerina ranks higher on this list than the Honorable Miss despite the Beyer Speed Figure being identical.
First, the Ballerina was a Grade I race, while the Honorable Miss has a Grade II ranking.
Second, left in Echo Zulu’s wake in the Ballerina was none other than Goodnight Olive, who finished second in the field of seven.
Goodnight Olive won the BC Filly & Mare Sprint at Keeneland in 2022 en route to being voted a 2022 Eclipse Award as champion female sprinter.
After Echo Zulu defeated Goodnight Olive in the 2023 Ballerina, Goodnight Olive went on to win the 2023 BC Filly & Mare Sprint at Santa Anita.
You can view the 2023 Ballerina Handicap on YouTube (Frank Mirahmadi has the call).
4. CODY’S WISH in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile at Santa Anita at one mile on dirt Nov. 4. (Owned by Godolphin; trained by Bill Mott; ridden by Junior Alvarado; Kentucky-bred 5-year-old son of Curlin.) Beyer Speed Figure 107.
Cody’s Wish won the 2023 BC Dirt Mile race by only a nose, but he showed the heart of a champion to get this victory. His final time was 1:35.97.
This was an extremely significant win in that I believe it’s likely to be followed by Cody’s Wish being elected 2023 Horse of the Year. If he had not won the BC Dirt Mile, his chance of being voted Horse of the Year wouldn’t have been nearly as good.
You can view the 2023 BC Dirt Mile on YouTube (Larry Collmus has the call).
Below is what I wrote in my 2023 BC Dirt Mile recap for Xpressbet.com:
“After Cody’s Wish won the 2022 BC Dirt Mile by a head, this time he eked out a nose victory at the end of a late-race slugfest with Preakness Stakes winner National Treasure. Inasmuch as there was some bumping involving these two in deep stretch, the stewards posted the inquiry sign. In a unanimous decision, the stewards (Luis Jauregui, Kim Sawyer and Grant Baker) allowed the original order of finish to stand.
“National Treasure ran too good to lose. In his three starts after winning the Preakness, he had finished sixth, fifth and fourth. This was a big step in the right direction for him.
“After key BC Dirt Mile scratches of Practical Move and Algiers, a lot of people thought Zozos was going to lead from start to finish. But after not being in front early, Zozos finished fifth.
“Cody’s Wish now heads off to stud having won 11 of 18 lifetime starts and all eight of his races at one mile.
“You probably know the story by now. Cody’s Wish was named after Cody Dorman, a teenager who had a rare genetic disorder.
“Dorman was on hand to see Cody’s Wish win this year’s BC Dirt Mile. Sadly, two days after the Breeders’ Cup the family of Cody Dorman announced in a statement distributed by Godolphin that he had died.”
The Dormans’ statement was as follows:
We are heartbroken to share the news that our beloved Cody suffered a medical event on our trip home to Kentucky yesterday and he has passed away. On Saturday, Cody watched his best friend, Cody’s Wish, display his usual perseverance and toughness in winning a second Breeders’ Cup. Those are the same characteristics Cody has shown time and again for the 18 years we were blessed to have him. We have been completely amazed to experience the impact Cody has had on so many people, through the journey that this wondrous racehorse has taken us all on. From Churchill Downs, to Keeneland, to Saratoga, to Santa Anita this weekend, we could not move 20 feet without people telling us that.
“With Cody’s diagnosis at birth, we always knew this day would come, but we were determined to help Cody live his best life for however long we had him. Anyone who has seen him at the racetrack, especially around Cody’s Wish, understands that in many ways he taught us all how to live, always keeping a positive attitude and being more concerned about those around him than himself.
“As people of faith, we are comforted in the knowledge that Cody has gone home. We pray that he watch over all of us, especially Kylie, the best little sister in the world. We are sincerely grateful for all of those who have shared this journey with Cody and our family. The joy that his interactions with Cody’s Wish have brought him in the last five years is indescribable. We will rely on those memories to help us through an unimaginably difficult time.”
Following his win in the 2023 BC Dirt Mile, Cody’s Wish topped the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for the year, as shown below:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 326 Cody’s Wish (20)
2. 307 White Abarrio (11)
3. 258 Idiomatic (2)
4. 257 Elite Power (1)
5. 159 Up to the Mark (1)
6. 121 Arcangelo
7. 114 Goodnight Olive
8. 84 Master of The Seas
9. 70 Auguste Rodin
10. 31 Inspiral
Also receiving votes: Echo Zulu (29 points), Proxy (26), Fierceness (24), Gunite (22), Arabian Knight (21), Just F Y I (18), Casa Creed (11), Nobals (9), Mawj (6), Randomized (6), Ceiling Crusher (5), National Treasure (5), Pretty Mischievous (5), Geaux Rocket Ride (3), Next (3), Hard to Justify (2), In Italian (2), Practial Move (1).
3. WHITE ABARRIO in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita at 1 1/4 miles on dirt Nov. 4. (Owned by C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable; trained by Rick Dutrow Jr.; ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.; Kentucky-bred 4-year-old Race Day colt.) Beyer Speed Figure 107.
White Abarrio’s BC Classic victory as the 5-2 favorite was a tribute to Dutrow’s horsemanship. It was not all smooth sailing for White Abarrio at Santa Anita in the lead-up to the North America’s richest race. The colt had a cracked heel on a hind foot.
“It’s like a little bit of a cracked heel behind and it’s been lingering for about two to three months, maybe longer,” Dutrow said to Daily Racing Form’s David Grening.
But a sharp five-furlong workout at Santa Anita indicated that White Abarrio was poised to run a biggie in the BC Classic, which would be his second try going farther than 1 1/8 miles. He finished 16th in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby of 2022.
“Any worries handicappers might have had regarding White Abarrio after he had a scheduled workout postponed here earlier this week due to foot issues were likely laid to rest in the :59.63 it took the Grade I Whitney winner to work five furlongs shortly before dawn on a crisp Friday morning at Santa Anita,” Daily Racing Form’s Mike Welsch wrote.
White Abarrio’s official clocking for the move was :59.80.
Welsch, who has a keen eye as a clocker, wrote that White Abarrio completed “his final three-eighths in :34.54 and quarter in :23 flat before continuing willingly into the clubhouse turn and galloping out six panels in 1:13.26. Even better yet was the energy he showed jogging home, eager and on his toes as if the work took little, or nothing, out of him at all.”
That final quarter in :23 flat indicated it was all systems go for White Abarrio.
When White Abarrio had trounced his foes in the Whitney, he was credited with a 110 Beyer Speed Figure. It was the top Beyer by the 13 contestants in this year’s BC Classic.
White Abarrio lurked in third behind pacesetter Arabian Knight and pace-presser Saudi Crown during the early stages of the BC Classic. White Abarrio, who was “traveling sweetly” on the far turn, as Santa Anita track announcer Frank Mirahmadi put it during his excellent call of the race, moved up willingly to wrest the lead away from Arabian Knight in the vicinity of the quarter pole.
As I noted in my BC Classic recap for Xpressbet.com, the Equibase chart has Arabian Knight leading by a half-length at the quarter pole.
“Not that it overly matters, I don’t agree with that,” I wrote. “When I watch the video replay and freeze it at the quarter pole, it appears to me that White Abarrio is in front by a gray head, maybe even a neck. I make this observation as someone who called the official charts for the 1986 Breeders’ Cup Classic won by Skywalker and the 1987 Breeders’ Cup Classic won by Ferdinand.”
White Abarrio and Arabian Knight battled for the lead in upper stretch. White Abarrio then got the better of his 3-year-old rival to go past the eighth pole with a one-length advantage. After having a clear lead for most of the final furlong, White Abarrio reached the finish one length in front of oncoming longshot Derma Sotogake. White Abarrio completed 1 1/4 miles in 2:02.87.
It appeared to me that either (a) the 1 1/4-mile trip was getting to White Abarrio a smidge toward the end and/or (b) he lost his focus a bit late after drawing clear.
Dermo Sotogake, a 3-year-old taking on his elders for the first time and making his first start since finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby on May 6, ran one heckuva race to finish second in the BC Classic at 26-1. Proxy, off at 17-1, was full of run late to edge 3-1 second favorite Arabian Knight for third.
Finishing fifth was Ushba Tesoro (this year’s Dubai World Cup winner), followed in order by Bright Future, Senor Buscador, Dreamlike, Zandon, Saudi Crown, Clapton and Missed the Cut.
You can view the 2023 BC Classic on YouTube (Larry Collmus has the call).
2. CODY’S WISH in Belmont Park’s Grade I Metropolitan Handicap at one mile on dirt June 10. (Owned by Godolphin; trained by Bill Mott; ridden by Junior Alvarado; Kentucky-bred 5-year-old son of Curlin.) Beyer Speed Figure 112.
The 2023 Met Mile win by Cody’s Wish was a tour de force. Eighth early in the field of nine, he swept past rivals while extremely wide on the far turn to reach the front turning for home. Opening up a four-length lead in upper stretch, he went on to win by 3 1/2 lengths as the 3-5 favorite. His final time was 1:34.36. He recorded a 112 Beyer Speed Figure while extending his winning streak to six.
You can view the 2023 Met Mile on YouTube (John Imbriale has the call).
An especially strong group came together in this year’s Met Mile. Among those finishing behind Cody’s Wish were four Grade I winners going into the race -- Zandon, White Abarrio, Dr. Schivel and Doppelganger.
Another of Cody’s Wish’s Met Mile victims would go on to become a Grade I winner, that being Slow Down Andy.
After Hoist the Gold finished next-to-last in the Met Mile, he later won a pair of Grade II races, the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland and Cigar Mile at Aqueduct.
Cody’s Wish won all four of his 2023 starts at seven furlongs or one mile. And I think his win in the Met Mile was his finest performance of the year.
1. WHITE ABARRIO in Saratoga’s Grade I Whitney Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on dirt. (Owned by C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable; trained by Rick Dutrow Jr.; ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.; Kentucky-bred 4-year-old Race Day colt.) Beyer Speed Figure 110.
Even though White Abarrio won the Grade I Florida Derby as a 3-year-old in 2022 when trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., it was White Abarrio’s impressive 6 1/4-length Whitney victory for trainer Rick Dutrow Jr. that announced the colt as one of the elite Thoroughbreds in the nation.
In the Whitney, White Abarrio won at odds of 10-1 while completing his 1 1/8-mile trip in 1:48.45. With this victory he gained revenge after finishing third when Cody’s Wish won the Grade I Met Mile on June 10. Cody’s Wish ended up third as the 2-5 favorite in the Whitney after an awkward start.
White Abarrio recorded a 110 Beyer in the Whitney, his highest figure to date.
Even more meaningful to me than his 110 Beyer and one of the reasons I’m ranking White Abarrio’s Whitney as the best performance by a Thoroughbred in the United States during 2023 was the negative 6 Thoro-Graph number he received for that race. The best Thoro-Graph number for Cody’s Wish during 2023 was his negative 4 in the Met Mile. Thoro-Graph-wise, a negative 6 is considerably better than a negative 4.
In terms of Beyer Speed Figures, the higher the number the better. The opposite is true for Thoro-Graph numbers.
I have said many times that I consider Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers. But I’ve also said that I believe Thoro-Graph numbers are superior to the Beyers. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
Just how marvelous was White Abarrio’s negative 6 in the Whitney? I think it’s fair to say that it was a Flightline-like performance.
When the great Flightline won Del Mar’s Grade I Pacific Classic by 19 1/4 lengths, he received a negative 8 1/2 Thoro-Graph number. That’s the best Thoro-Graph number in the 36 years they have been computing speed figures.
The previous best Thoro-Graph number was Frosted’s negative 8 when he won the Grade I Met Mile at Belmont Park by 14 1/4 lengths with a terrific final time of 1:32.73.
Following Flightline’s sensational Pacific Classic victory, he concluded his undefeated racing career with an 8 1/2-length win in the BC Classic at Keeneland. That broke the record for the largest winning margin in the history of the BC Classic, which was first run in 1984.
Flightline received a negative 6 for his win in the BC Classic. White Abarrio matched that outstanding Thoro-Graph number in the Whitney.
As White Abarrio powerfully bounded away from his rivals during the stretch run of the Whitney, track announcer Frank Mirahmadi said that White Abarrio “was running the race of his life.” That was so true. And White Abarrio would go on to prove that his scintillating Whitney performance was the real deal by subsequently winning the BC Classic.
You can view the 2023 Whitney Stakes on YouTube (Frank Mirahmadi has the call).
Below are my top performances of the year going back to 2004:
2023 White Abarrio in the Grade I Whitney Stakes
2022 Flightline in the Grade I Pacific Classic
2021 Flightline in the Grade I Malibu Stakes
2020 Swiss Skydiver in the Grade I Preakness Stakes
2019 City of Light in the Grade I Pegasus World Cup
2018 Justify in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2017 Gun Runner in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
2016 Arrogate in the Grade I Travers Stakes
2015 American Pharoah in the Grade I Belmont Stakes
2014 Wise Dan in the Grade II Bernard Baruch Handicap
2013 Dreaming of Julia in the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks
2012 I’ll Have Another in the Grade I Preakness
2011 Animal Kingdom in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2010 Blame in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
2009 Zenyatta in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
2008 Big Brown in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2007 Rags to Riches in the Grade I Belmont Stakes
2006 Barbaro in the Grade I Kentucky Derby
2005 Afleet Alex in the Grade I Preakness Stakes
2004 Ghostzapper in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Classic
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