We are into crunch time now, folks. There are three races this Saturday (March 30) offering 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points toward this year’s 150th running of the $5 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. The 1 1/4-mile classic will be contested on May 4.
The three races with Kentucky Derby points up for grabs this Saturday are the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and Group II UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse.
$1 MILLION FLORIDA DERBY
Which Fierceness are we going to see Saturday? Will it be the Fierceness who was a brilliant Saratoga debut winner and a dominant 6 1/4-length Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor? Or will it be the Fierceness who lost the Grade I Champagne Stakes by 20 1/4 lengths as a 1-2 favorite and the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths as a 1-5 favorite.
If the “good” Fierceness shows up in the Florida Derby for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, the Kentucky-bred City of Light colt will be mighty tough to beat. And Fierceness’ sharp recent a.m. rehearsals do seem to suggest there is a good chance that we are going to see the “good” Fierceness this Saturday.
And so Fierceness is my top pick in the Florida Derby, right? Nope.
Then my top choice must be the highly regarded Conquest Warrior, right? He looked terrific when he won a 1 1/8-mile allowance/optional claimer by five lengths at Gulfstream on March 1.
No, I’m not picking Conquest Warrior to win the Florida Derby, either. Personally, I’m of the opinion that he might be a tad overrated. Yes, he was a $1 million auction purchase and, yes, has a Hall of Fame trainer in Shug McGaughey. But I’m waiting for Conquest Warrior to go out there and post a Beyer Speed Figure higher than an 84 before I think about jumping on his bandwagon.
My choice to win the Florida Derby is Hades. He’s three for three and has already defeated Fierceness. Yet it’s Fierceness who figures to be a heavy favorite Saturday. Strong support for Fierceness makes total sense. After all, he is a champion who recorded a lofty 105 Beyer Speed Figure in the BC Juvenile. Hades? His top Beyer has been just a 90.
But I can’t help thinking Hades might be a special 3-year-old. Not only has he succeeded at distances ranging from 5 1/2 furlongs to 1 1/16 miles, he’s demonstrated the versatility in terms of running style to win from well off the pace or on the pace.
Because so much attention understandably was focused on Fierceness getting beat in the Holy Bull as an overwhelming favorite, I don’t think Hades received the credit he deserved for winning the race.
In the Holy Bull, Hades vied for the early lead. Turning for home, it looked like Fierceness was going to put away Hades and roll on to a victorious 2024 debut. But Hades found another gear in the lane and actually drew clear late to prevail by two lengths. Domestic Product rallied to finish second. Fierceness had to settle for third, 3 1/2 lengths behind Hades.
I especially liked the way Hades came home in the 1 1/16-mile Holy Bull considering it was his first start going farther than seven furlongs. I also liked his gallop-out a lot.
The quality of Hades’ performance in the Holy Bull was later validated when runner-up Domestic Product won the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby on March 9.
Hades is in the very capable hands of trainer Joe Orseno. In 2000, Orseno won the Preakness Stakes with Red Bullet, who soundly defeated Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus.
You can view the 2000 Preakness on YouTube (Dave Rodman has the call).
Also in 2000, Orseno trained a pair of Breeders’ Cup winners in Macho Uno and Perfect Sting. Macho Uno and Perfect String were voted an Eclipse Award in their division, while Orseno was a finalist for a 2000 Eclipse Award as outstanding trainer.
I have to admit that I certainly like what Orseno told Daily Racing Form’s David Grening this week regarding Hades and the Florida Derby.
“The way he’s training and what he’s doing for me right now, I’m going to be disappointed unless he wins because he’s just doing that well,” Orseno said.
Another reason I’m picking Hades to win the Florida Derby is the draw for post positions didn’t do Fierceness any favors. Fierceness got post 10, which has produced a very low percentage of winners in 1 1/8-mile races on Gulfstream’s main track. Hades breaks from post 2.
From the rail out, the Florida Derby field consists of Frankie’s Empire (12-1 on the morning line), Hades (7-2), Bail Us Out (15-1), Grand Mo the First (15-1), Real Macho (20-1), Le Dom Bro (15-1), Catalytic (20-1), Seminole Chief (30-1), Conquest Warrior (3-1), Fierceness (8-5) and Iris’s Dream (30-1).
Below are my Florida Derby selections:
1. Hades
2. Fierceness
3. Conquest Warrior
4. Bail Us Out
$1.5 MILLION ARKANSAS DERBY
As reflected by the morning line, there is a “big three” in the Arkansas Derby. They are Muth at 8-5, Timberlake at 9-5 and Mystik Dan at 5-2. Everyone else in the field of 11 is 15-1 or higher.
I’m going with Mystik Dan (pictured above) as my top pick. Kenny McPeek trains the Kentucky-bred Goldencents colt.
In his most recent appearance under silks, Mystik Dan rallied from sixth to win Oaklawn’s Grade III Southwest Stakes by a large margin on Feb. 3. In front by only a half-length a furlong from home, Mystik Dan then ran up the score to reach the finish eight lengths in front.
Mystik Dan’s Southwest not only was visually impressive, it was praiseworthy from a speed-figure standpoint. He received a 101 Beyer Speed Figure. That’s the highest Beyer achieved by any of the Arkansas Derby entrants.
Was Mystik Dan’s sterling Southwest effort due to the muddy track? Perhaps. But he did get a 96 Beyer on dry land when a 7 3/4-length maiden winner going 5 1/2 furlongs at Churchill last Nov. 12. That indicates to me that Mystik Dan can win the Arkansas Derby if the track isn’t wet.
Muth, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, comes off a 2 1/2-length win in Santa Anita’s Grade II San Vicente Stakes on Jan. 6. The Kentucky-bred Good Magic colt finished second in the BC Juvenile, outrunning Timberlake on that occasion.
Timberlake became rank early in BC Juvenile and ended up fourth. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt kicked off his 2024 campaign by winning Oaklawn’s Grade II Rebel Stakes by two lengths on Feb. 24 for trainer Brad Cox.
Watch out for Liberal Arts. If there is an upset, it could be him. The Kentucky-bred Arrogate colt, trained by Robert Medina, ran third in the Southwest.
From the rail out, the Arkansas Derby lineup is comprised of Will Take It (50-1), Timberlake (9-5), Dimatic (20-1), Time for Truth (20-1), Liberal Arts (15-1), Informed Patriot (30-1), Muth (8-5), Just Steel (15-1), Mystik Dan (5-2) and Imperial Gun (30-1).
Below are my Arkansas Derby selections:
1. Mystik Dan
2. Muth
3. Timberlake
4. Liberal Arts
$1 MILLION UAE DERBY
At this time next week I might still be wiping egg off my face. Or maybe it will turn out that I was right to have a high opinion of Forever Young. It all depends on what Forever Young does this Saturday in the Group II UAE Derby.
As I recently wrote for Xpressbet.com, a friend of mine emailed me to pass along his thoughts of Forever Young after seeing the Japanese star at the top of my Kentucky Derby rankings. My friend, by the way, really knows his stuff. And his email to me did not pull any punches.
“Forever Young? Are you drinking?” the email said. “You won’t find him with a search warrant in the Kentucky Derby. He has no chance. Saudi Derby knocked him out.”
Actually, if Forever Young doesn’t win the UAE Derby, or at the very least finish second, you won’t even be seeing him in the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. Unless he runs first or second Saturday, he won’t have enough points to participate in the Run for the Roses. For Forever Young, a lot is on the line in the UAE Derby.
Many were unimpressed with his come-from-off-the-pace nose win in the Group III Saudi Derby, a one-mile event around one turn. Many bash him for running on his left lead all the way down the stretch. Others denigrate him for winning by only a head. Still others knock him for barely beating Book’em Danno, who was coming off a win in an ungraded stakes race at Tampa Bay Downs.
As a one-turn race at about one mile, the Saudi Derby is “as much a sprint as a route, and Forever Young struggled to adapt,” Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh wrote in his recap of the race. “Breaking poorly under Ryusei Sakai, Forever Young had to be ridden vigorously down the backstretch while kept toward the center of the track to avoid kickback…Forever Young spun his wheels and lost momentum into the homestretch, where he failed to ever change leads. With 300 meters remaining he began closing the gap, and with a furlong left to run, Book’em Danno wearing down, Forever Young began making serious progress. One final surge and Forever Young collared Book’em Danno, a tough beat for trainer Derek Ryan and Book’em Danno’s New Jersey owners, but a win under the most challenging circumstances Forever Young has faced.
“Book’em Danno, who looks like a very good sprinter-miler, might have hit the far end of his stamina range in the one-turn Saudi Derby, while Forever Young was just getting warmed up at the trip,” Hersh added. “Forever Young, always out of rhythm in [the Saudi Derby], ought to better suit the [about] 1 3/16-mile race in Dubai.”
It is true that Forever Young won the Saudi Derby by only a small margin. But I believe he deserved kudos for coming away with a victory despite racing in a country other than Japan for the first time, despite competing in a race around one turn for the first time, despite a tardy beginning and despite a wide journey.
Additionally, Forever Young’s final time of 1:36.17 for 1,600 meters obliterated the track record. The old mark had been 1:37.91 set by Full Flat in the inaugural Saudi Derby in 2020.
Forever Young’s 1:36 flat clocking in fifths was about nine lengths faster than Full Flat’s 1:37 4/5.
Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote that Forever Young ran “basically as fast” as older stars Senor Buscador and Ushba Tesora did when they finished one-two on that same card in the Saudi Cup.
Keep in mind that Japan’s Derma Sotogake finished third in last year’s Saudi Derby, which he lost by 2 3/4 lengths. He then won the UAE Derby in by an emphatic 5 1/2 lengths.
Based on the final time of the 2023 Saudi Derby compared to this year, Derma Sotogake would have finished about 17 lengths -- that’s right, about 17 lengths! -- behind Forever Young in this year’s Saudi Derby.
I also think it’s to Forever Young’s credit that his Saudi Derby performance stacks up quite well vs. other leading 3-year-olds from a Thoro-Graph perspective.
While I regard Beyer Speed Figures to be a useful tool for horseplayers, I do believe that Thoro-Graph numbers are superior. That’s because Thoro-Graph takes more factors into account than the Beyers. According to Thoro-Graph, “each number on a sheet represents a performance rating arrived at by using time of the race, beaten lengths, ground lost or saved on the turns, weight carried, and any effects wind conditions had on the time of the race.”
In the case of the Thoro-Graph numbers, a horse who finished second, or even lower, can get a better number than the winner. This is one of the reasons I believe that Thoro-Graph is better than the Beyers. I consider a Thoro-Graph number to be a much truer reflection of a horse’s performance than a Beyer. Thoro-Graph’s approach reflects the reality that the winner is not necessarily the horse who ran the best race.
The winner of a race never gets a lower Beyer Speed Figure than the horse who finished second, the horse who finished second never gets a lower Beyer than the horse who finished third, and so on down through the order of finish.
The best Thoro-Graph number among the 23 individual horses in Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager on March 17 is Fierceness’ minus 1 1/2 for his Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile tour de force at 1 1/16 miles last Nov. 2 at Santa Anita.
The second-best Thoro-Graph number is the 1/4 recorded by Mystik Dan when he romped to an eight-length win in the Grade III Southwest Stakes, which was run Feb. 3 on a muddy track at Oaklawn Park.
The third-best is Forever Young’s Thoro-Graph number of 1 for his narrow victory in the Saudi Derby at one mile.
Forever Young is expected to be a strong UAE Derby favorite in international betting markets.
Below are my UAE Derby selections:
1. Forever Young
2. Henry Adams
3. Pandagate
4. Mendelssohn Bay
Henry Adams, trained by the great Aidan O’Brien, finished fourth in a Group I race in Great Britain last year won by the exciting City of Troy.
Pandagate represents the U.S. following a 5 1/2-length win in Aqueduct’s Gander Stakes for New York-breds on Feb. 25. Christophe Clemente trains the ridgling by Arrogate, who ran a phenomenal race after a botched start to win the lucrative Dubai World Cup in 2017.
Bhupat Seemar trains Mendelssohn Bay, who goes into the UAE Derby off a 3 3/4-length win in the Group III UAE Two Thousand Guineas on Jan. 26. This colt is trying to follow in the footsteps of his sire, Mendelssohn, who is remembered for his scintillating 18 1/2-length win in the 2018 UAE Derby.
THIS WEEK’S KENTUCKY DERBY TOP 10
Catching Freedom makes his way onto my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week in the wake of his Louisiana Derby triumph. He is No. 8.
Exiting my Top 10 this week is Track Phantom, who finished fourth in the Louisiana Derby.
Below is my current Kentucky Derby Top 10:
1. Forever Young
2. Sierra Leone
3. Dornoch
4. Fierceness
5. Timberlake
6. Hades
7. Mystik Dan
8. Catching Freedom
9. Deterministic
10. Just a Touch
DERBY STRIKES UPDATE
I came up with my Derby Strikes System in 1999 to try and identify those horses having the best chance to win the Kentucky Derby from BOTH tactical and historical perspectives.
My Derby Strikes System consists of eight categories. When a horse does not qualify in one of the eight categories, the horse receives a strike.
The eight categories are listed further below in this blog.
Because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go further back than that year when calculating the number of strikes for past Kentucky Derby winners. Two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
A number of the categories in my Derby Strikes System are tied to a Kentucky Derby being run on the first Saturday in May. Consequently, when the 2020 running was switched from May 2 to Sept. 5 due to the pandemic, it rendered the Derby Strikes System unworkable that year. But when the Kentucky Derby again was run on its traditional date of the first Saturday in May in 2021, the Derby Strikes System again was viable.
It’s not until a 3-year-old makes his or her final start before the Kentucky Derby that I can determine their number of strikes.
Trainer Chad Brown said after Domestic Product’s Tampa Bay Derby victory that the plan was to race him once more before the Kentucky Derby. Brown now has indicated Domestic Product might not start again before the first Saturday in May. I will wait until that becomes concrete before calculating Domestic Product’s strikes.
I have ascertained the number of strikes for Louisiana Derby 1-2-4 finishers Catching Freedom, Honor Marie and Track Phantom. I’ve also determined the strikes for Jeff Ruby runner-up West Saratoga, Tampa Bay Derby runner-up No More Time and Japan’s T O Password.
--Catching Freedom (1 strike) Category 3. While he only has a single strike, this particular strike troubles me with regard to Catching Freedom. I consider Category 3 to be very important. This category points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. That’s because 56 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to run.
--Honor Marie (1 strike) Category 3. Like Catching Freedom, Honor Marie’s lone strike comes in this key category. And like Catching Freedom, this concerns me as far as Honor Marie being too far back a furlong out in the Kentucky Derby.
While on the subject of Category 3, Sierra Leone, the 7-1 favorite in the most recent Kentucky Derby Future Wager on March 17, was fourth with a furlong left to run when he won the Risen Star on Feb. 17. That means Sierra Leone needs to be first or second a furlong out when he makes his next start in the 1 1/8-mile Blue Grass Stakes on April 6 in order to avoid getting a strike in Category 3, like Catching Freedom and Honor Marie.
--Track Phantom (1 strike) Category 4. He gets a strike in this category because he finished second in the 1 1/8-mile Risen Star Stakes and fourth in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby after being in front a furlong out in both races. This does make it seem that the 1 1/4 miles of the Kentucky Derby probably will not be his cup of tea.
--West Saratoga (1 strike) Category 4. His only strike stems from the fact that he finished third in the Sam F. Davis Stakes after being second with a furlong to go.
--No More Time (2 strikes). One strike comes in Category 4 because he did not improve or at least hold his position in the final furlong in both of his final two starts before the Kentucky Derby. In the Tampa Bay Derby, No More Time had the lead a furlong from home before finishing second. The other strike for No More Time comes in Category 5. He gets a strike in this category because he has not finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race.
--T O Password (3 strikes). It was announced this week that he will be sent to the Kentucky Derby. He has just two races under his belt. T O Password won by two lengths when unveiled in a race at about 1 1/8 miles in Japan on Jan. 6, defeating 15 foes. He then won the Fukuryu Stakes at the same distance in Japan on March 23, this time defeating 10 opponents. He gets a strike in Category 1 for not having run in a graded race before March 31, another strike in Category 2 for not having won a graded race, plus a strike in Category 7 for not having raced as a 2-year-old.
T O Password will be attempting to become only the second horse to ever win the Kentucky Derby in his or her third career start.
According to the Kentucky Derby media guide, Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form, with the help of Keeneland Library’s Becky Ryder, determined that 1883 Derby winner Leonatus is the only Kentucky Derby winner with just two prior lifetime starts.
Mage last year joined Mine That Bird as the only two Kentucky Derby winners to have more than two strikes. Nevertheless, despite there being a three-strike winner last year, history shows that a horse with zero strikes or only one strike has a much better chance to win the Kentucky Derby than a horse with two strikes or more. Mine That Bird had four strikes. Mage had three.
According to the Derby Strikes System, excluding the Kentucky Derby of 2020 when the race was run in September, 80% of the Kentucky Derby winners (40 out of 50) have had zero strikes or one strike from 1973 through 2023.
One of Mage’s strikes was because he had not won a graded stakes race. Another of Mage’s strikes was for getting passed in the final furlong of the Florida Derby. Mage’s third strike was for not having raced as a 2-year-old.
There have been eight Kentucky Derby winners with two strikes. Cannonade (1974), Ferdinand (1986), Sea Hero (1993), Funny Cide (2003), Giacomo (2005), Justify (2018), Country House (2019) and Rich Strike (2022).
Mage became the first Kentucky Derby winner with three strikes.
Mine That Bird in 2009 had four strikes (Categories 1, 4, 5 and 8).
WINNER’S STRIKES GOING BACK TO 1973
As mentioned earlier, because stakes races in this country were not graded until 1973, I can’t go back further than that year when determining the number of strikes for Kentucky Derby winners. Again, this is because two of my eight categories deal with graded stakes races.
The strikes for each official Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973 are listed below:
2023 Mage (3 strikes) Categories 2, 4 and 7)
2022 Rich Strike (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3)
2021 Mandaloun (1 strike) Category 4*
2020 race run in September
2019 Country House (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 3**
2018 Justify (2 strikes) Categories 1 and 7
2017 Always Dreaming (1 strike) Category 1
2016 Nyquist (0 strikes)
2015 American Pharoah (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2012 I’ll Have Another (0 strikes)
2011 Animal Kingdom (0 strikes)
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2008 Big Brown (0 strikes)
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2006 Barbaro (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 8
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
*Medina Spirit (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified from purse money
**Maximum Security (0 strikes) finished first but was disqualified and placed 17th
MY DERBY STRIKES SYSTEM’S CATEGORIES
What are the eight categories in my Derby Strikes System? They are listed below:
1. THE GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race before March 31.) This points out horses who have competed against tough competition prior to March 31 rather than at the last minute in April, enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Going back to the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S. in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Always Dreaming in 2017 have won the Kentucky Derby without running in a graded stakes race at 2 or early at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES CATEGORY. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003, Giacomo in 2005, Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 are the only exceptions going back to the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE CATEGORY. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Kentucky Derby, the horse was first or second with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or 1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Kentucky Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses. Keep in mind that 56 of the last 61 Kentucky Derby winners through 2023 have been first or second with a furlong to run. Since Decidedly won the Derby in 1962 when he was third with a furlong to go, the only four Kentucky Derby winners who were not first or second with a furlong to run were Grindstone, fourth with a furlong to run in 1996; Giacomo, sixth with a furlong to go in 2005; Animal Kingdom, third a furlong out in 2011 when only a half-length from being second; and Rich Strike, third with a furlong to go in 2022. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the Kentucky Derby winners who weren’t either first or second a furlong from the finish in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958, Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990, Sea Hero in 1993 and Rich Strike in 2022, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS CATEGORY. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Kentucky Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final furlong. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in 1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009, Super Saver in 2010, Mandaloun in 2021 and Mage in 2023, with Canonero II in 1971 unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION CATEGORY. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Kentucky Derby.) This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Kentucky Derby distance. (Exceptions: Going back to 1955, the only exceptions have been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS CATEGORY. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her final start at 3 before the Kentucky Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, the trainer is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Going back to 1973, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD CATEGORY. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exceptions: Apollo in 1882, Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. Going back to 1937, horses unraced as a 2-year-old now are a combined 3 for 73 in the Kentucky Derby through 2023. During this period, the only horses to finish second or third in the Kentucky Derby without having raced at 2 were Hampden, who finished third in 1946; Coaltown, second in 1948; Agitate, third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in 2007; Bodemeister, second in 2012; and Battle of Midway, third in 2017.)
8. THE NOT A GELDING CATEGORY. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009 are the only geldings to win the Kentucky Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL
Senor Buscador has now held the top spot in the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll for five consecutive weeks since winning the world’s richest race, the $20 million Saudi Cup, on Feb. 24.
This Saturday, the good senor will attempt to further pad his bankroll when he starts in the $12 million Dubai World Cup for trainer Todd Fincher.
Also representing the U.S. in the Dubai World Cup is Grade I Santa Anita Handicap winner Newgate, who is No. 4 in the NTRA poll.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 303 Senor Buscador (25)
2. 224 National Treasure (3)
3. 220 Saudi Crown
4. 168 Newgate
5. 164 Idiomatic (2)
6. 145 White Abarrio
7. 74 Warm Heart
8. 58 First Mission
9. 51 I’m Very Busy
10. 41 Speed Boat Beach
Though they did not make the Top 10, The Chosen Vron and Auguste Rodin each received one first-place vote.
TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL
Catching Freedom cracks the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll following his Louisiana Derby victory. He is No. 5.
No. 2 Timberlake, No. 6 Muth and No. 8 Mystik Dan are entered in the Grade I Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park.
No. 7 Fierceness and No. 9 Hades are entered in the Grade I Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park.
Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll:
Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)
1. 274 Sierra Leone (12)
2. 221 Timberlake (1)
3. 200 Nysos (14)
4. 196 Dornoch (1)
5. 195 Catching Freedom (2)
6. 106 Muth
7. 84 Fierceness
8. 76 Mystik Dan
9. 70 Hades
10. 57 Deterministic
Though they did not make the Top 10, Endlessly and Imagination each received one first-place vote.
Imagination won Santa Anita’s Grade II San Felipe Stakes on March 3. The Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt is a candidate for the Grade I, $750,000 Santa Anita Derby on April 6.
Endlessly took last Saturday’s Grade III Jeff Ruby by four widening lengths on synthetic footing at Turfway Park. The Kentucky-bred Oscar Performance colt is headed to Churchill Downs’ Grade II, $600,000 American Turf on May 4 instead of the Kentucky Derby, according to trainer Michael McCarthy.
.svg){kind=logo}
