While spring is a wonderful time of year…complete with melting snow, blooming trees, singing birds and the Kentucky Derby; fall steals the cake with cool mornings, sunny afternoons, colorful landscapes, NCAA and NFL football, the World Series and Breeders’ Cup. Keeneland, Belmont and Santa Anita are in action this weekend and they’re all worth the price of a wager or two.
In fact, Santa Anita’s Late Pick 4 might be worth a little more attention than usual because Xpressbet is offering shares of an extra $2,000 to players who hit the wager. That may not mean a major windfall but, heck, if you’re playing the Pick 4 with Xpressbet or 1/STBET anyway, why not register and collect more money when you’re correct? The Late Pick 4 offer is good each racing day this meeting at The Great Race Place. Log in and visit MEMBER BENEFITS/SPECIAL OFFERS to register and for information about all Xpressbet offers, including a $10,000 Fall-Stars Pick 4 Split offer at Keeneland Saturday, Oct. 9.
In order to, hopefully, help horseplayers conquer Saturday’s Late Pick 4 at Santa Anita, we’ve analyzed the races below and offered up a suggested ticket. Please, consider the analysis and revise the suggested play or construct your own sheet based on the evaluations. Pick 4s are easier to hit than Pick 5s, about like the Matterhorn is easier to climb than Everest. In other words…wear your mittens, they’re both difficult!
Last week in this space, we suggested a $48 Late Pick 4 ticket that returned $37.75 for each $.50. Not so great. What was pretty good, however, is that the $48 total ticket price represented a suggested $3 Late Pick 4 worth a total of $226.50 plus a nearly 16% $6.01 bonus from the Xpressbet Late Pick 4 pot to registered players. Not a life-changing score but, as they say, ‘Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick.’
This week’s Late Pick 4 is much tougher than last week’s, and we don’t envision a ‘chalky’ payoff. We’ve suggested a more expensive ticket to reflect the perceived open nature of these races. Trim and adjust to fit your preferences. This appears a difficult one.
6th Race
Claiming $25kN2L
Three Year Olds & Up
Six Furlongs
This is a tricky start to the Late Pick 4. Good news is that we get to see the tote board for wagering information that might help narrow down the choices. Any runner taking strong money in here should be a signal that the barn knows more than we do. Otherwise, wagering should be about evenly distributed across the board with no real ‘hot’ horse.
#1 Doc Adams drops for a tag for the first time off a nearly one-year layoff. The work pattern is nothing special and apprentice DA Herrera is up. The drop by owner, breeder Nick Alexander must be respected in a wide-open race.
#2 Honorary Degree broke maiden one back when loose on the lead at the maiden 20k level. That’s his only notable effort in 5 starts. Apprentice Jess Pyfer rides for Adam Kitchingman.
#3 Stir the Pot is just 1 for 16, with 4 seconds and 2 thirds. He has early speed and there’s not much of that in this race. A best of 80 half mile work in :47 3/5 shows he’s still got his speed. Six furlongs may not be his best distance, but he’s been second at six and one-half furlongs. Again, this is a wide-open race so his speed must be respected.
#4 Ka’nah was second at this level one back and then a respectable third in a $50k starter. He fits off those two races and has faced better earlier in his career. He should race just off the early pace under Tyler Baze.
#5 Cunning Munnings also was second at this level one back in a five and one-half furlong turf race in January of 2020. The 5-year-old’s been gone about one year and has trained about every seven days. Trainer Mark Glatt is 20% off long layoffs. More food for thought.
#6 Intense is a 3-year-old tumbling in class for this following gelding. Owner/breeder Terry Lovinger offers this guy up for a tag for the first time. The gelding has a few interesting works for this: :59 4/5 and 1:13 4/5. Count him in the mix on the drop from state-bred optional claimers into this scramble. Usual jockey Baze moves from this one to #4 Ka’nah and Maldonado replaces him.
#7 Gordy’s Boy is a bookend uncoupled entry for trainer Steve Miyadi (also has #1 Doc Adams). This 3-year-old gelding was claimed for $20k two back and promptly broke maiden against state-bred company for $45k at Los Alamitos Sept. 12. He’s just 1 for 13 overall but 1 for 1 with new connections. He usually races from off the pace. It should be noted that trainer Steve Miyadi is 30% with runners that won their last start.
Use as Many as You Can Afford.
Best: #4, #6
Next Best: #1, #3, #5, #7
While you’re at it…might as well add: #2
7th Race
Swingtime
Fillies & Mares Three Year Olds & Upward
One Mile (Turf)
A tricky event with enough speed to set things up for an ‘off-the-pace’ charge. Might need to use a couple of these to feel ‘covered.’ Even so, that might not be enough. Another bit of a scramble in the second leg of the Late Pick 4.
#1 Global Brand is a relatively new face to the local scene—one weak Listed stakes effort at Del Mar. She’s won just 2 of 14 starts—one at Tampa and one at Presque Isle. She has no speed and will require a pace collapse to win. Others are more attractive in here.
#2 Cowboys Daughter has inside speed and probably will use it to maintain position. She likes to win races—5 for 11—but is 0-3 at Santa Anita and at the distance. She was claimed for $20k four races back and has promptly won 3 in a row—2 on Golden Gate turf and 1 over Los Al dirt. Trainer Reid France is a sparkling 28% this year. She should have company on the front end and that ought to weaken her late. Always difficult to go against a hot streak but she seems in tough.
#3 Avenue de France won her last start over the Golden Gate turf in a $52k stakes race. She closed from off the pace to do it and that’s her style. She won a one mile and one-eighth allowance turf race at Sant Anita in December. Her only graded stakes try was not good, but it was at one mile and one-half. If things get really heated up on the front end, this 4-year-old filly could close to possibly get a piece of this.
#4 Ippodamia’s Girl is a 6-year-old mare that won a restricted stakes race at Del Mar two races back. She then set the pace in a one mile and one-eighth turf stakes there and faded. This distance is more to her liking—5 for 11—and she’s 3 for 10 at Santa Anita. At this distance she is likely to sit just off the early pace and maybe get first run on the closers. She is Gr. 3 stakes placed going five furlongs and was close in a Gr. 3 at this distance.
#5 Brooke is a 5-year-old mare that won Group 1 races in Chile and is placed in two Gr. 3 races in the US. In 4 US starts, she’s been close 3 times and twice at Gr. 3 level. Her poorest race was last out in the Gr. 2 Yellow Ribbon at Del Mar when nearly 19-1 odds. She finished just behind
#4 Ippodamia’s Girl two back in the Osunitas at Del Mar. They also finished close together in the Gr. 3 Wilshire, too. Like #4 Ippodamia’s Girl, this mare races from just off the pace. Feels like this return to an ungraded stakes race is a strong move. Would like her more if not for a somewhat sketchy work tab with gaps between morning efforts. Still, she fits well.
#6 Ellie Arroway is a 5-year-old mare with speed who should add pace to the race. She was claimed for $40k in January and was second for $25 in August at Del Mar. She would be a surprise.
#7 Norma Jean B., a 4-year-old filly, was 0 for 9 until breaking her maiden and then winning next out, too, in a first-level allowance race. She’s hot and is stepping up quite a bit in here. She races from off the pace and was 6-1 to win last out. She’ll be a bigger price than that in here and would be a surprise except for the old adage that ‘when fillies or mares get good, they stay good.’
#8 Nasty figures to set or force the early pace. Two of her last three races have come against Grade 2 foes and she showed speed and faded in each of those encounters and in the restricted common Osunitas Stakes. She is Gr. 3 stakes placed going this distance and has a stakes win at the distance over the Santa Anita turf. She sports a couple of notable workouts for this: :47 (2 of 23) and :59 (2 of 18), although speed hasn’t been her issue. ‘Stick’ has.
#9 England’s Rose is a lightly raced 5-year-old coming off a one mile and three-eighths first-level allowance score at Del Mar. She’s been first or second in her last 4 races since January. She’s lightly raced with just 6 starts and is 1 for 1 at Santa Anita and was second in her only start at the distance. She will need to rally from off the pace. She’s developing nicely, if not slowly, for trainer John Shirreffs and this is a big step up in class.
#10 Quiet Secretary is a 4-year-old filly who should add speed to the early mix. Winner of 4 of 16 overall, she’s 2 for 9 at Santa Anita and 4 for 8 at the distance. She won her last out in wire-to-wire fashion at Del Mar in a $62 Claiming/Allowance race. Her graded stakes tries thus far have been disappointing and her outside posts figures she’ll need to ‘go’ early to get the lead over the other speeds in here and that could sap her strength.
Best in a scramble: #4, #5
Use More If You Can Afford To: #3, #9
8th Race
Claiming $16KN2L
Three Year Olds & Upward
Six Furlongs
Several of these seem unlikely winners. Maybe players can get by this leg while using one or two runners.
#1 Chasing Fame comes out of this kind of race at Los Al Sept 19 that is common to several in here. This guy ran evenly to be a well-beaten fourth and now draws the rail for a rematch. Claimed for $20k at Del Mar in July, he’s been outrun since.
#2 The Roan Ranger won a race last out at Los Al going 1,000 yards but still is a maiden against Thoroughbreds. Would be a surprise.
#3 Hawk Hill drops back to a level where he was second going six and one-half furlongs at Del Mar. That afternoon he opened up the lane and was nailed on the money at 8-1 odds. Other tries at this level at Pleasanton and Golden Gate have not been as successful. He’s 1 for 15 and probably will come from off the pace.
#4 Test Drive was claimed last out by a 33% first-time barn switch outfit. He has shown no speed in 3 starts and did stumble last out. He’d be a surprise but the barn is good with these.
#5 Fun Coupon had fun last out at the Maiden $20k level with a hard-fought dead-heat draw going five and one-half furlongs at Los Al. Probably not capable of duplicating that effort although it should be noted that blinkers were added and may have made a difference.
#6 Honor Among Men is a 4-year-old with speed that just missed last out going five and one-half furlongs at this level in the common Los Al Sept. 19 race. He was favored and used his early speed. Expect similar tactics this time with Baze up. He should hang around a long time and could win.
#7 Squalotoro is a 4-year-old coming out of the common Los Al Sept. 19 race. He ran evenly to be third, two and one-half lengths back. He was second at this level three back at Santa Anita in Feb when he tossed his head at the start and flew home late. He fits in here and switches to JJ Hernandez who won on him last October.
#8 Pedro Perez is a Thoroughbred maiden with a Los Alamitos 1,800 yard win. Would be a surprise.
#9 Sometimes Always probably doesn’t know if he’s coming or going. He’s been claimed out of 5 of 7 starts at 4 different racetracks! Favored last out against fellow 3-year-olds going one mile at Del Mar, He pressed the early pace and weakened a bit late to hold second, something he’s pretty adept at (4 seconds in 7 starts). Before that he broke maiden for $20k going seven furlongs at Del Mar. Winning ride Umberto Rispoli has been up since and tries again for new trainer Jorge Gutierrez.
Fit and Fast: #6
Use: #7
Add On: #9
9th Race
State-Bred Allowance Optional Claiming
Three Year Olds & Upward
Six & One-Half Furlongs (Turf)
No relief in the last for players as this could go many different ways. There’s plenty of speed, a couple of first or lightly-raced-on-turf runners, some sharp recent maiden winners and a few steady punchers. Lots of ways for this one to go over a tricky six-furlong flat layout.
#1 I’ll Stand Taller was second to #2 Clem Labine three back at Del Mar, won his next start and was third going one mile and one-sixteenth at Del Mar in a decent effort—his first on turf. He’s a genuine 3-year-old with 8 starts, 4 at this level (a win, a second, a third and a fourth). One of several that deserves consideration in here.
#2 Clem Labine is a 5-year-old making his first start on turf. He won at this level last time out at Del Mar, was second in a Pleasanton allowance race and won for $25k at Pleasanton. He seems to be doing well enough and the main concern is how he will handle the grass. With 16 of 24 starts either first or second, he deserves some level of respect. He has a best-of 76 :47 2/5 blowout at Golden Gate for this.
#3 Mischievous Path’s last was not good. Pass for now.
#4 Surplus has speed and used it to cruise to a more than 3 length maiden victory last out going five furlongs at Del Mar on turf. Peter Miller trainers and this one has to be respected right back.
#5 Scary Fast Smile is a 4-year-old that’s been overmatched in his last 2 races. Before that he parlayed two thirds, three seconds and a seven-length win into an eighth-length tally at this level. This is his first turf try. Back at the appropriate level, he could be very dangerous. Nice 1:00, 2nd best-of-47 work for this.
#6 Single Me Out is a 6-year-old with 2 wins in 29 starts. Don’t think this is number 3.
#7 Austin’s Boy is a 4-year-old with speed, but he’s had trouble holding on throughout a couple of recent 5-furlong turf tests. He did win a maiden race going five and one-half furlongs over the Santa Anita grass in February ’20. Needs better and has a :59 work for this.
#8 Seattle Breakout surprised with a powerful win going six furlongs over Del Mar dirt in August. He had been gone since April and an awful first out performance over ‘Anita turf. Blinkers were added for the victory and that score must be respected even though it came over dirt against maidens.
#9 Riding With Dino is a 4-year-old with just 7 starts. He’s got speed and will use it in here. He hasn’t been very good at holding on though, since he won a six-furlong race in November ’19. Two five panel turf starts since have seen him collared in the lane. He has 2 wins, 2 seconds and 2 thirds in 7 starts, so he’s competitive…at least he should be until the final furlong and one-half.
#10 Foothill is a 4-year-old that was claimed in March for $25k. He won in his next out in April going one mile and one-eighth over Santa Anita turf. He gets a 5-pound weight break with apprentice Pyfer and that could help his closing kick as he cuts back from a mile. Still, he’s just 2 for 14 overall.
#11 Johnny Podres has just 2 wins and 13 losses; a far cry from won/loss records posted by his namesake. The equine version has been second 5 times—all on turf in just 9 starts there! He races from off the pace and has been close going five furlongs. Six and one-half ought to be up his alley. He’s been second in 2 of 3 Santa Anita turf starts. Underneath in Exactas might be best.
#12 El Diablo Rojo is one of several in here that have won at this level. However, this 4-year-old is 0 for 6 on turf. He races from off the pace and the distance should suit him even though the turf surface may not.
#13 Bound to Bet raced respectably against some of these on Del Mar turf at this level. Still, he will be drawn wide, if he gets in, and will need to rally very wide. Asking a lot from the post.
#14 Baby Gronk is a 6-year-old with 3 recognized wins out of 27 starts. Tough to endorse if he draws in.
Slightly Best But Not a Single: #5
These Should Be Used: #1, #2, #4, #8
$.50 Late Pick 4 Ticket ($60)
Race 6
#1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #7
Race 7
#4, #5
Race 8
#6, #7
Race 9
#1, #2, #4, #5, #8
Race On!
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