It must be winter or almost. I can tell because when I dress for a tee time, I resemble the Michelin Man. Also, images of swaying palm trees and Ron Nicoletti often fill my television screen and that means Gulfstream Park’s Championship Meeting is underway.
While they won’t post the winter ‘official’ until Tuesday, Dec. 21, a finger in the outside air reports that ‘it feels like winter.’ Don’t know if watching racing from South Florida actually lowers my home heating tab or not, but it sure makes me feel warmer. There’s something about seeing jocks riding without gloves and masks (wool not surgical), grooms in short sleeves and patrons in short pants that relaxes me. Of course, a $20 winner would warm cockles significantly more but for now I’ll settle for a mere balmy visual.
Below is analysis and a suggested Gulfstream Park Saturday Late Pick 4 -- which will be sweetened by 1/ST BET and Xpressbet suits with an additional$2000 hit-and-split promotion. It’s a difficult sequence. (Like they’re ever simple?) We’ve taken a solid shot at the beast with a ticket that relies on an against-the-favorite single in the next-to-last leg—the featured Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at seven furlongs. If we are correct there and in previous and subsequent events, we will be paid handsomely. IF the queen…well, you know the rest.
In addition to that bounty, if accurate, we gladly will accept a boost from the $2,000 Gulfstream Late Pick 4 Split promotion offered each Saturday and Sunday through Dec. 26. Registered players in the promotion that hit the Gulfstream Late Pick 4 will split two dimes evenly. A nice congratulatory kiss, if you ask me.
Heck, if you’re considering playing the wager, (and if you’re reading this, you’re probably more than just thinking about it) then why not register and take a free roll that you’ll hit the wager and collect a few extra bucks? Worse you can do is to lose money and you’ve done that before.
Race 8
Nothing particularly easy about this $25k optional claimer for sprinting fillies and mares. Early pace seems like it will be contested between #2 Restofthestory, #4 Wild America and #7 Gitana. #9 My Destiny has some pace and could be close up from the outside.
Of that group, #2 Restofthestory seems fittest, cutting back from a one-mile test. She’s also never raced for a tag and has some stakes experience.
#5 Awesome Annmarie figures to run late. She’s improved, loves GP park and is solid at the distance. She’s been close at this level 2 out of her last 3 starts.
#7 Gitana fits pretty well in here but her records over the track and at the distance are not encouraging. She’s better at finishing second—3 wins and 6 runner-up efforts out of 18 starts.
#8 Playera is a sharp 3-year-old stepping up in here and she may have caught the right group. This filly is 4 for 12 at GP and 4 for 11 at the distance. Trainer and jock combo hit at a sparkling 29%.
Also taking a notable dip in class is #1 We Miss Susie. Her best is good enough, but it’s been a while since she fired one of those shots. Maybe the drop will rekindle her spirit.
Use: #5, #8
Spread Options: #1, #2, #7
Race 9
The installation of a Tapeta synthetic surface at Gulfstream is a good thing. It gives racing officials and horsemen an option in both dry and inclement weather and will provide the turf course a grateful rest. As with most advances, there’s a bit of a tradeoff in the form of an adjustment period—for horses, trainers, jockeys and horseplayers. As if the game isn’t already difficult enough; for bettors, adjusting to a new surface is akin to trying to hit a snapping Koufax curve. It can be done, just not very well and not very often.
On a new surface, a horse’s form can change immediately; one that didn’t handle turf or dirt might adore Tapeta. ‘Size’ may or may not matter, depending on who you ask, but ‘surface’ is a critical aspect of handicapping.
How do we handle the new synthetic GP world? With care. General handicapping principles still apply, no doubt, but there are going to be surprises on Tapeta and one/another of them might come in this race. For example: 3 of the runners in this field are coming off huge Tapeta surface wins—#1 Double Blessing drew clear for Maiden $25k; #3 Devoted Kitten won for $10k and #6 New Year romped on synthetic at the $20k level. While 3 for 3 last out on synthetic, that group is just 8 for 64, overall. Does one them have a new lease on life over Tapeta or will another in the field enjoy a fresh synthetic moment in the sun?
#2 Palatial Times returns to a live level for trainer Maker and jockey Gaffalione (21% combo). Claimed for $40k two back at Churchill, this starter $25k seems a likely spot. This 3-year-old gelding is stretching out for the first time and trying Tapeta. Unknowns loom.
#5 Thenorthremembers returns to a successful level for low-profile connections. He’s 0 for 3 on synthetic but gets this chance at a better level. Note a troubled trip 2-back and a slow break from the rail last out.
#6 New Year is steady and in great form off a win at least one level below this. A repeat of that effort puts him in the picture.
#7 Call of Honor woke up when dropped to Maiden $15k and has worked well since. He needs more but shows signs of additional life.
#8 Alado drops to a live level. He’s fairly honest and has steadily improved for trainer Sano. He’s got pace in a race that doesn’t have much of that. A negative is that he’s finished second 6 times with just 2 wins.
#9 Landbiscuit gets class relief here from New York for trainer Mott and jockey Johnny V. This will be his first synthetic start.
Use: #3, #4, #6, #9
Wake Up Addition: #7
Race 10
This is the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector and this field is isn’t nearly as deep as it has been in the past. For example, last year, Sleepy Eyed Todd was best over Firenze Fire and Mind Control. Nobody like that in here, at least not at this point. Should be legit pace with #2 Wind of Change and #3 Poppy’s Pride showing the way. #5 Dennis’ Moment and #6 Doc Amster won’t be too far away with the former most likely to finish well.
#5 Dennis’ Moment deserves top billing in here because he won a Gr. 3 stakes at 2 and then faced better graded competition in his next two starts but that didn’t go well. Since Feb. of 2020, he’s made just 4 starts—a win and a second in allowance company. That’s not much racing and he obviously has issues. He’s 2 for 3 at the distance and has the right stalking style for this race. He also has a nice series of works for this. Negative is that he’s never run as fast as some of his foes have several times and he’s going to be short price. We’re against him.
#2 Wind of Change is one of two for trainer Saffie Joseph. If it rains, he’s your guy—7 of 8 wins have come over wet tracks. Actually, he might be your guy anyway. He went very fast early in this race last year, had a big lead and then faded to fourth, beaten over 3 lengths by the crew mentioned above. A repeat of that performance wins. He’s been rested following an Oct. 9 runner-up effort and is training well at Palm Meadows. Trainer/jock combo is 29%.
#4 Endorsed comes off a solid recent 7-furlong effort at Churchill. He’s run 2 strong races since being claimed for $100k by Maker from Mott. This 5-year-old should be closing late and often gets a slice.
Use: #2
Also Possible: #4
Against: #5
Race 11
This is an inscrutable 2-year-old event with several of these trying turf for the first time and also stretching out. It’s a mixed bag of State-Bred Maidens and Open runners entered for $50k, so the level of competition is a bit jumbled, too. Our advice is not take any ‘Wooden Nickels.’ In other words, demand value and spread the net in the Pick N events.
#1 Captain Sensible has ‘stuff’ going on 33% jock/trainer combo. Trouble in last. Only second start. Rail post. New gelding.
#6 Merlin hasn’t found any ‘magic’ yet—4 seconds in 7 starts. He has some speed in a race void of that commodity and Zayas is capable and familiar with him.
#7 Uninvited Guest deserves respect with Pletcher/Velazquez team and a third at this level on turf at Belmont going one mile from the 12 hole. He’s the most likely winner but far from a cinch at a short price.
#8 Hashtag No Wonder makes 4th start, first for tag. Jock/Trainer 17%. Forget last on dirt at Keeneland. Applicable trainer stats are solid.
#9 Giantsbane is fit off recent race. Makes only third start. Worked solid 5 furlongs on turf at Palm Meadows.
#11 Jardani is new face from Laurel and has improved in each start for Cibelli. First for tag. Second in blinkers that seemed to help in last. Post no help.
#12 Testa makes just 2nd start for 21% trainer/jock combo. Switch to turf. Post no help. Blinkers on.
Spread it Out: #5, #7, #10, #11, #12
$.50 Late Pick Four ($25)
Race 8: #5, #8
Race 9: #3, #4, #6, #7, #9
Race 10: #2
Race 11: #5, #7, #10, #11, #12
Race On!
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