From the banks of the Shing Mun River, Sha Tin will host a 10-race card this Saturday night (First Post: 12:45 am ET) with an exceptional Class 2 contest being run at a mile over the turf course in Race 7. The pools are massive, the fields are full, and we can only hope the odds will be in our favor. I’m going to take a look at a couple spot plays to round out an action-packed day of racing.
If your adrenaline is still firing after the Dubai World Cup, Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby cards then Hong Kong is the place for you.
Helpful Resources
Breaking into a new racing circuit can be a challenge, but the Hong Kong Jockey Club sits at the middle of this poker table dealing free past performances, pace projections and ample resources for players new to the scene. Download the program and check out their detailed explanation of how to read their past performances.
Here are some helpful links to get started:
Sha Tin – April 6
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Methodology
The method I use for making picks is a combination of homegrown speed figures and classic pen-and-paper handicapping. Since the Hong Kong program doesn’t feature things like Beyer Speed Figures or Brisnet’s Prime Power, I opted to create some figures of my own after consulting with colleagues and being schooled on how they’re made. I use classic factors like running time and lengths beaten, adjust for class and specific race pace, and weight a horse’s willingness to go by and win races. Once I have an idea of which runners I should focus on, it’s on to the program to look for winners.
Stats and figures are from my own research, so please use them with discretion.
Race 1 | 2000 Meters (10 Furlongs) | Class 5
Pick: #2 CHILLI BABA (22/1 ML) – Win/Place
#2 CHILLI BABA is rated second highest in my power ratings system with an average figure of 100.30 over the gelding’s last 10 races. #14 LEATHER MASTER is the highest-rated runner in the contest at 100.39 but draws the 14 post and will likely spend a lot of energy early trying to get around this field. #1 PERFECT PAIRING is dropping in class and has been tabbed as the morning line favorite at 4/1, but he hasn’t hit the board in two tries at this distance and seems a bit one-paced in recent form.
The likely pace scenario in this 1 1/14-mile race should favor #2 CHILLI BABA who is going the extra distance for the first time. He has made up at least seven lengths in the last three races, including a win at 1 1/8 miles, and comes off back-to-back tries at a mile where he was begging for extra track.
#2 CHILLI BABA gets his extra run for trainer Ricky Yiu, who boasts the best recent winning percentage of the trainers in this field, and has a serious shot at taking our opener with a big morning line price.
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Race 3 | 1200 Meters (6 Furlongs) | Class 4
Pick: #5 DAZZLING FIT (11/1 ML) - Win
I’m looking to play against some first-time starters and a shortly priced favorite making his second start after coming up short at Sha Tin going the same distance. #5 DAZZLING FIT put up a 101.41 power rating in his debut, which is good for third in this group, but had a tough trip getting blocked in and we’ll look for him to improve this weekend. Coming from the 8 post, DAZZLING FIT should get a comfortable place hanging back from what is likely to be a hot pace. At any price close to the morning line, I’d give this gelding a much better chance than the odds imply, which makes him a good bet in my book.
Barring a surprise debut, this race should come down to a mix of #9 TOP THRONE (2/1 ML), #2 MOUNT EVEREST (11/2 ML), and our selection #5 DAZZLING FIT (11/1 ML). If each of those horses have a relatively similar chance to hit the wire first, give me the one with the best odds.
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Race 7 | 1600 Meters (8 Furlongs) | Class 2
Pick: #6 SNOWFIELD (26/1 ML) – Win/Place
We’re going big and then we’re going home. Or to bed. The feature race on the card is this Class 2 contest at one mile with a 3/5 ML favorite in #5 VOYAGE SAMURAI, who has our second highest power rating in the field (100.75). SNOWFIELD made his debut March 23 in a disappointing run against a blistering pace for this shipper from Brazil. After an impressive record (7: 5-0-1) with multiple stakes wins in Brazil, the connections certainly have higher expectations for this colt. Even with a disappointing premiere, SNOWFIELD put up a noteworthy 101.17 figure in his effort.
SNOWFIELD’s trainer, Mark Newnham, has the field’s highest winning percentage at 10.51% over his last 428 starts. SNOWFIELD will have to demonstrate some comfort in his new home and improve in his second start in Hong Kong, but with a race under his belt I’m hoping he’s primed and ready to take on this moderately paced short field and crash the toteboard.
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As always, best of luck to all who dive into this card!
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