Three Group 1’s and a roster of international Group Stakes talent make Sunday one of the biggest days in the Hong Kong Jockey Club’s racing calendar. Contingencies representing champions across the Americas, Asia and Europe will descend on Sha Tin to compete for glory and plentiful purses. Let’s look at the three Group 1’s on the card and get a lay of the land before plotting our attack on this loaded card.
Race 4 | G1 Hong Kong Vase
The Lead
This 1-1/2 mile test puts championship distance to the test over the Sha Tin turf course. Historically, this race lends itself to European shippers and has become a major target for Japanese barns. GIAVELLOTTO will seek to defend his title against the other invaders.
Field Depth
Group 1 winners include LOS ANGELES, AL RIFFA, GIAVELLOTTO, GOLIATCH, SOSIE, and URBAN CHIC. Three of this year’s runners were featured in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, with SOSIE and GIAVELOTTO having the best outcomes and finishing within a quarter-length of each other.
Pace
MOMENTS IN TIME is expected to set the pace but should have plenty of company with GOLIATH drawing the fourth post, ENSUED in the seventh gate, and early tactical speed from LOS ANGELES, EYDON, and KA YING GENERATION.
Most Likely Exotics Contenders
GOLIATH has finished in the exacta in eight of twelve tries going this distance and gets a favorable draw towards the rail to pair with his early pressing style of pace. GIAVELLOTTO is defending his title and is a perfect one-for-one on the Sha Tin turf course but comes tagged with a low morning line price.
Best Longshot Contenders
GOLIATH seems to be tainted by a poor outing in the Breeders’ Cup Turf, but his resume paints a picture worth better than his 17/1 morning line. The post is favorable for him, and this isn’t his first time in Hong Kong. While his only other run at Sha Tin was a seven-length loss in the QEII Cup, I’d expect the barn to have a better idea of how to prep him for his return visit.
Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)
$50 Quinella | 4 w/ 10
Playing for a massive price to start the Group 1 action, I think GOLIATH is the price to play in this race coming right off the lead. However, one of the few deep closers is local contender BUNDLE AWARD who has been running short of the 2400-meter distance lately and seems eager to get the extra distance. I like the idea of playing him in the quinella in case he gets a lane for a big late run.
$25 Exacta | 4 w/ 2,3
Keying my top longshot on top, the two most logical choices on paper are AL RIFFA and GIAVELLOTTO in my opinion. I don’t think they are getting the setup they hoped for but based on raw talent alone these two are
worthy of playing underneath if we get our big price home.
//
Race 5 | G1 Hong Kong Sprint
The Lead
Hong Kong legend and international superstar, KA YING RISING, gets the rail draw for the first time in his career as he looks to defend his Hong Kong Sprint title against a talented group of hopefuls.
Field Depth
KA YING RISING is the resume to beat, no doubt about it. SATONO REVE has been close on his tail over this course before, and LUCKY SWEYNESSE will join HELIOS EXPRESS on the list of locals hoping KA YING RISING takes a Michael Jordan break so they can take home a trophy.
Pace
WIN CARNELIAN will take a shot at the lead from the eleventh gate just outside of BEAUTY WAVES in the ninth post who will also be fighting for that lead. Tucked away on the rail, KA YING RISING tends to sit off the lead, but his draw may force his hand and send him out early to defend ground.
Most Likely Exotics Contenders
TOMODACHI KOKOROE was my choice to finish second to KA YING RISING in his last race. He came up short of that projection but has been in his best form over the last year or so. SATONO REVE, LUCKY SWEYNESSE, and HELIOS EXPRESS are all likely to be battling for the bulk of the dollars in the price pool.
Best Longshot Contenders
Every horse not named KA YING RISING is a longshot in this race, but if I had to pick any of the field I’d land on SATONO REVEN out of Japan. He has lost to KA YING RISING twice, by two lengths and one length respectively. He hasn’t been more than two lengths out of the winner’s circle in more than a select few of his Group 1 races and picks up Ryan Moore for this try.
Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)
$50 Exacta – 1 w/ 3,11
I don’t have any doubts about KA YING RISING’s ability to win from the rail, and the exacta pool should be diluted when compared to the win odds for some of the most logical on-paper contenders. For that reason, I’m leaning towards the two biggest prices of the horses I like underneath KA YING RISING, and that gets me to TOMODACHI KOKOROE at 63/1 and LUCKY SWEYNESSE at 42/1.
//
Race 7 | G1 Hong Kong Mile
The Lead
Hong Kong Triple Crown Winner, VOYAGE BUBBLE, looks to defend his title against a mix of familiar foes and shippers looking to topple the seven-year-old. A field full of champions will go toe-to-toe for the opening leg of the Hong Kong Triple Crown.
Field Depth
Group 1 winners include SOUL RUSH, VOYAGE BUBBLE, DOCKLANDS, RED LION, and EMBROIDERY. SOUL RUSH, coming in from Japan, and the local VOYAGE BUBBLE are certainly the most decorated of the runners.
Pace
COPARTNER PRANCE and THE LION IN WINTER both seem most likely to go for the lead, with THE LION IN WINTER being more willing to concede a position out front.
Most Likely Exotics Contenders
EMBROIDERY has only run on a dry turf course, but at just three years old she has been outstanding in most of her starts in Japan. She’ll get a handicap and run with only 121 pounds in the irons, I think this horse on the rise is primed for a big run that could place her in the money at a decent price.
Best Longshot Contenders
THE LION IN WINTER was one of my top choices in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, and I think he’s going to take to a bit more moisture in the track in Hong Kong better than he did at Del Mar in November. This is a talented colt that hasn’t quite put it together in his six Group 1 tries, but if he ships well to Hong Kong, I won’t put it past him with Ryan Moore jumping back on board for Aiden O’Brien. RED LION has toppled VOYAGE BUBBLE once with Hugh Bowman in the irons. It would be a tall task for the six-year-old who has been declining in form as of late, but at 99/1 it’s well worth taking a shot.
Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)
$25 Win – 13
I think this is VOYAGE BUBBLE’s race to lose, at least on paper, but I don’t think we have seen the best from THE LION IN WINTER and if the Win odds are anything close to his 34/1 morning line, I’ll be taking a big swing.
$25 Quinella – 2 w/ 8,13,14
If, indeed, VOYAGE BUBBLE is coming into this race at his best, I want to be able to capitalize on his success. RED LION has beaten him before but will need to dig deep for a form he hasn’t seen in quite some time. At 99/1, the quinella is a great spot to tuck him for a longshot run. THE LION IN WINTER is still on my radar as a horse rising and I think this could be an opening for him to put it all together. EMBROIDERY is the filly to watch taking on the boys, but this three-year-old filly has a trajectory I love and just finds a way to get to the wire.
//
Race 8 | G1 Hong Kong Cup
The Lead
ROMANTIC WARRIOR makes his second start back in Hong Kong after a big stint in the Middle East. At 1/5 on the morning line, this is his race to lose in a short field.
Field Depth
ROMANTIC WARRIOR is ten of sixteen in Group 1 tries. BELLAGIO OPERA and QUISISANA are the only two other runners with a win at this level.
Pace
GALEN should be out in front of this field with a steady group right off his pace. ROUSHAM PARK and STRAIGHT ARRON look like your most likely off-pace closers.
Most Likely Exotics Contenders
ROUSHAM PARK and GALEN are my choices to find their way in the money. Some of the more talented on-paper runners in this field go boom or bust at this distance, and since I’m not choosing them to win, I am banking on them going bust and opening things up for a bigger price to sneak into those 2nd and 3rd spots.
Best Longshot Contenders
None. I hate to say it, but I don’t think there are any longshots that are legitimate contenders here, just playing for positions underneath ROMANTIC WARRIOR.
Sending It In ($100 Bankroll)
$50 Exacta – 1 w/ 3,4
This is ROMANTIC WARRIOR’S race to lose coming off a victorious return to Hong Kong in the G1 Hong Kong Cup. The horse is 19-for-26 lifetime, 14-for-18 on the Sha Tin turf course and has seemed to find yet another gear deep in his seven-year-old season. However, I do think there’s a great chance some of the other potential contenders can’t hang on for all ten furlongs and open things up for ROUSHAM PARK and GALEN to find their way to the tote board. I’ll stake my bankroll on ROMANTIC WARRIOR taking home the glory and getting a big run out of either GALEN or ROUSHAM PARK.
.svg){kind=logo}
