A special midweek card at Sha Tin awaits bettors this week to celebrate the 76th Anniversary of the Founding of the People’s Republic of China. While I am admittedly unfamiliar with the local festivities, or whether anybody will eat 70.5 hot dogs in ten minutes, I am familiar with the full fields and huge pools in Hong Kong. The National Day Cup (G3) highlights this card, and hopefully we can highlight some winners along the way.
Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – October 1
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather
Race 1 | 1400M | Class 5 (All-Weather)
Win – #4 WINDICATOR FAMILY
Grade: A
Notes: WINDICATOR FAMILY is looking to bounce back from a brutal trip in his last try at Sha Tin also going seven furlongs. He was buried on the rail and boxed in unable to find any open lane until there was under a furlong to go. Once he found an opening, he still had plenty of run but no track left. My numbers paint this gelding as a consistently above par runner who just seems to struggle to put it all together. His biggest foe here, CASHICASH, is winless in Hong Kong even after getting a dream trip in his last run to open this season. WINDICATOR FAMILY doesn’t have a stellar record when it comes to winning races, but he’s going to pick up Zac Purton and get a better draw for his stalking style in the eighth post. I like his chances to open the card at Sha Tin.
Race 3 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – #6 RAGNARR
Quinella – 6 w/ 5,11
Grade: B
Notes: If the pace makes the race, I like to think we’ve got a good trip lined up for my top choice RAGNARR who is seeking his first win in Hong Kong. I’m expecting a group of between two and four runners to really gun for early pressure, and RAGNARR to be sitting three-to-four lengths back waiting to pounce. He gets a decent draw in the fifth spot and picks up, you guessed it, Zac Purton. This gelding is trending in the right direction and debuted showing some quality to start the new season. With a tune-up race in the books, I think he’s ready to finally break through. Given the pace scenario, I like a couple of others to be in the mix. NOBLE DELUXE rates very highly in my model with some solid speed figures in his recent races. If any of the “lead” horses are in the mix late, I expect him to be the one. MODEST GENTLEMAN is my off-the-pace pick to make a Quinella appearance from the outside.
Race 6 | 1400M | Class 4
Win – #5 VICTORY CHAMPION
Exacta Box – 3 w/ 5
Grade: A
Notes: VICTORY CHAMPION has just one start in Hong Kong, finishing a neck short of GROOVY FEELING in a Class 4 bout going six furlongs on a yielding course. GROOVY FEELING is the 9/5 Morning Line favorite in Race 4 on this card in a race I’m not interested in betting against him in. I think VICTORY CHAMPION’s inexperience is largely to blame for his 10/1 Morning Line, but I’m willing to bet the extra two furlongs and a better track condition play in this gelding’s favor. I expect to feel discouraged when the gate opens and he gets boxed in from the rail but remember the six-length gap he closed on a wet course in his first start and then add two extra furlongs for him to stretch out and blow by this field. I’m going to play him to win outright and box him in an Exacta with INVINCIBLE IBIS, a lightly raced four-year-old who will be picking up Zac Purton and is expected to take another big step forward.
Race 7 | 1000M | National Day Cup (G3)
Win – #5 FAST NETWORK
Longshot Flyer - #8 BABY CRYSTAL
Exacta – 5 w/ 4
Quinella – 5 w/ 7,8
Grade: B
Notes: The Group 3 National Day Cup is the highlight on this midweek card, and while the field only drew eight, they are a closely competitive group presenting bettors with a chance to snag a good price. WUNDERBAR is certainly deserving of his Morning Line favorite designation, but he has been on the bench since June, and his competition has mostly been raced already this season. I think WUNDERBAR is certainly destined for continued success, but there’s a window here to take a shot against him. BABY CRYSTAL has been on rest since coming up lame in his near win in January going six furlongs but looked very sharp in his most recent barrier trial. His numbers paint a picture of a very talented horse heading into his seven-year-old campaign. Not to mention, BABY CRYSTAL will only be carrying 115 pounds with Britney Wong in the irons. That drastic of a weight difference in a short field gives me some added reason to take a flyer and include this gelding in the Quinella. BOTTOMUPTOGETHER faded in the last two hundred meters in his tune-up race to start this season at Class 1, and at a Morning Line of 21/1 I’m willing to include him on the Quinella as well with a cut in distance and a favorable draw. Top choice, FAST NETWORK, should be set up with at least half of the field trying to go gate-to-wire. He’s going to have to make his move a bit earlier than he’s used to, going from six to five furlongs, but he looked sharp in his season debut at seven furlongs on a yielding course. I expect him to defend his spot on the rail enough to have a window he can fire through over the last two hundred meters to nose by the crowd and take home a trophy.
Race 8 | 1400M | Class 2
Win – #1 HONG LOK GOLF
Grade: A – Most Likely Winner
Notes: This horse wins races. My numbers love him. He’s six-for-seven lifetime, winning four straight from any combination of having the lead, off the lead, going a mile, going seven furlongs, he just wins. I thought about getting cute with the exotics, and please feel free to, but let’s keep it simple and cash one.
Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – #10 ONE MORE
Quinella – 10 w/ 1,5
Grade: A
Notes: This South African gelding, ONE MORE, had an underwhelming start to his Hong Kong career, but after a summer off he came back in a barrier trial on the all-weather surface and appeared much sharper. He broke from the sixth post in his trial and quickly overtook for a lead he never lost. From his draw on the rail, he’s going to need to make his move early, but he seems capable of holding on for the distance if he can do so. At a Morning Line of 11/1, I think he’s a solid play for the price and my numbers agree. He will have some tough competitors in HAROLD WIN and SIX PACK, but SIX PACK will have a significant weight disadvantage after two disappointments in Class 2 and NEW FUTURE FOLKS doesn’t seem to particularly like going just six furlongs.
Good luck!
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