The Hong Kong calendar shifts this weekend with a special Saturday card at Sha Tin rather than the usual easy Sunday morning. We’re back open at Pimlico this week prepping for Preakness, New York has a stakes-filled afternoon with the Man o’ War and Peter Pan, and we’re trying to build up the day’s bankroll with some overnight action.
Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +74%
Highlights: 52/1 Exacta and 14/1 Swinger given out Wednesday at Happy Valley
Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – May 10
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.
Race 1 | 1600M | Class 5
Win - 4
Notes: Topping the charts in the Power Ratings and without a clear rival found on paper, I like 4 – SMASHING EXPRESS at the 11/2 ML to win the opener. Morning line favorite, 2 – BEAUTIFUL WIN has shown some improving success around this distance but has not impressed me all that much. Trainer John Size has our top choice in his barn and is winning at a circuit-high 16.3% over the last ninety days.
Race 2 | 1000M | Class 4
Win – 6
Quinella Box – 3,6,7
Notes: Top choice 6 – LAHORE is making just his second start, going five furlongs again for trainer Jamie Richards, and rates less than a half-point below top Power Ratings choice 7 – MOON ROCKET. At a ML of 11/1, I like this three-year-old’s chances as much as anyone else. We’re also going to play for bombs away with 22/1 ML 3 – ALLURING LAOS tied to our top choices by the numbers in the Quinella.
Race 3 | 1400M | Class 4
Exacta – 1 w/ 2
Notes: Morning line favorite 1 – FLASH CURRENT looks like a clear standout, but not far behind in the Power Ratings is 2 – RIDING TOGETHER. Looking at the numbers and the winning percentages of the trainer and jockey, I like our chances at icing a cold exacta.
Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4 (All-Weather)
Win – 7
Quinella Box – 7,8,12
Notes: Top choice 7 – PRECISION GOAL tops the Power Ratings and is looking to get back into form after a few unsuccessful tries in Class 4 competition. He lost his tongue tie last out, was bumped early the race before, and gets a ten-pound handicap this time around. At 13/1 on the morning line, I like his chances to light up the board. We’ll play to win and box him in a Quinella with a couple other competitive looking prices.
Race 5 | 1400M | Class 4
Exacta Key Box – 1 w/ 2,7,8
Notes: Zac Purton, Hong Kong’s leading jockey, hops aboard our top choice and looks primed for a big run in this seven-furlong bout. The inside post is a bit tough for his off-pace running style, but there are a handful of big ML prices that could spur the upset if our top choice gets a tough trip. For that reason, we’ll bake in some insurance and play the Exacta keyed to the 1 and boxing 2, 7, and 8.
Race 7 | 1650M | Class 3 (All-Weather)
Win – 2
Exacta Box – 1,2
Notes: My Power Ratings love this top choice, 2 – BUNDLE OF CHARM, dropping back to Class 3. Looking at the program, I think we’re looking at a horse that is struggling to find his form having gone 0-for-14 this year. He’s 2-for-8 lifetime on the All-Weather surface in Hong Kong and has well outrun his results. At 13/1, I have to play the price. The other runner sitting at the top of the charts is 1 – TALENTS AMBITION, so let’s box these two and hope the price makes our day.
Race 8 | 1400M | Class 3
Win – 1
Notes: We’ve got Hong Kong’s top trainer, the horse with the highest number in the Power Ratings, and a top-five jockey in the irons. He’s third-choice at 13/2 on the morning line and gets a favorable draw for his early pace style. I’d be shocked if this horse isn’t in a top-two spot, and with others likely to take some money at the window we could get a more than fair price on this runner. Let’s play to win.
Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Exacta – 2 w/ 4,5
Notes: The second-choice at 5/2 on the morning line is 2 – LIFELINE EXPRESS, and I think he’s going to be tough to beat. We have a runner in 5 – ONE MORE making just his second start after having his reins dropped in his last run. In the mix is also 4 – SUPER LEGENDS who is still looking for his footing in the Class 3 competition. At 21/1 and 7/1 respectively, these two runners are definitely intriguing. Let’s key our top choice on top in the Exacta and tack on a couple prices for fun.
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