Note: $67,674 carryover pick 6 begins Saturday in Race 4.
Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
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Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 7-Corporal Violette (Ire); 2-Free and Humble; 6-Idessia.
Backups: 1-Monjica (Fr).
Forecast: Tough opener, so let’s spread and hope for a price. Corporal Violette (Ire) is probably better than her 10-1 morning line based on her recent speed figures facing tougher foes, and from her outside draw the Irish-bred-bred mare projects to enjoy a comfortable stalking trip and have every chance to at least outrun her odds. Free and Humble likes the local lawn and can fire a big shot if held up early and allowed to run late. Idessia tries an easier gang in her second off a layoff and should be heard from late.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 1-Fast Service; 7-Hermelinda’s Fancy.
Backups: 3-Bronko Nagurski.
Forecast: Fast Service turns back to a sprint, and with clear sailing and some help up front could tag the speed close home. Hermelinda’s Fancy returns to his claim level and is guaranteed a soft stalking/pressing trip outside.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Jaguar Jon; 5-Lead Pipe Joe.
Backups: none.
Forecast: We loved the way Jaguar Jon won his debut and believe he’s better than his so-so speed figure gives him credit for. Guess we’ll find out today. Lead Pipe Joe is a clear leader on numbers and is the logical favorite and one to beat.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Full Moon Graze; 2-Sand to Sea
Backups: none.
Forecast: Full Moon Graze is realistically spotted and remains above her claim level, so there’s much to like about the daughter of Grazen. Her best race is good enough, assuming she can handle the stretch out in trip, which we believe she can. Sand to Sea shows up in a seller for the first time and clearly has found her friends. Look for her to be on or near the lead throughout.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 3:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Bran (Fr); 3-Air Force Red.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Bran can fire fresh and loves this turf course. The French-bred gelding should be able to produce a winning late kick. Air Force Red is a tough-as-nails turf sprinter and a six time winner over the Santa Anita turf course. If you make a mistake, he’ll beat you.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Sierra Silver; 4-Cheever.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Sierra Silver has the benefit of a prior run in what was a fast highly-rated a productive race. He should be a short price, as many second-time Baffert entrants are. Cheever has done some good work in the morning for M. Glatt and looks like a live item. Toss him in somewhere for protection.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9-Lovin On the Run; 5-Miss Meagher (Ire).
Backups: 4-Petite Treat.
Forecast: Lovin’ On the Run seems fairly solid in this restricted turf sprint for fillies and mares. The class drop is warranted and from where she’s drawn the C. Gaines-trained mare should fold over into an ideal second flight, stalking spot and have every chance from there. Miss Meagher (Ire) shows up in a claimer and could easily be a better type this time around at this level for P. D’Amato. We have a hunch she’ll be most comfortable under these conditions as a late running sprinter.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-Divine Rascal; 3-My Bucket List.
Backups: none.
Forecast: Divine Rascal is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and should be capable of wearing down this modest group close home. My Bucket List got tagged late after striking the front in a tough beat facing similar here last month. If he can turn in two like, he’ll be tough, though reliability has never been his strong suite.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 9-Nikolina; 5-Donttellourwives
Backups: none.
Forecast: Nikolina just missed at 4/5 in a similar affair in a tough beat. Nothing much more should be needed today, though there won’t be much value available. Donttellourwives is competitive on figures and won’t have to improve much to be a serious challenger after finishing a close third in the same race the favorite exits.
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