It’s almost time for Hong Kong to take a week away, and Saturday’s action at Sha Tin is the last chance until June 22 to cash in on these massive pools and huge fields. We have an intriguing card with everything from All-Weather races to the Hong Kong equivalent of juvenile racing. Let’s crack this code and see if we can cash in before the break!
Helpful Resources
Sha Tin – June 14
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.
Race 1 | 1000M | Griffin
Double – 2 w/ 3,5,7,10,13
Notes: Saturday’s card opens with a Griffen race going five furlongs over a likely damp track. 2 THE ALL OUT (2/1) is the morning line top choice, and my top choice as well, putting up a 95 Burke Prime Rating in his winning debut. I’ll be keying him with a handful of price plays coming up in Race 2 to round out an opening Double.
Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Win/Place – 12 FLYING DOUBLE
Exacta Key Box – 7 w/ 9,12
Notes: 12 FLYING DOUBLE has a morning line of 99/1, and I just think that’s a huge mispricing on this horse. The biggest issues this horse faces are mental at this point in his young career, and I think he is going to get a better setup here. His speed ratings are great on paper, and I’m willing to make a wager he runs more in line from a mid-pack draw. 7 WINNING DIAMOND (2/1) debuted big going five furlongs but just missed after a strong rally. He gets the extra furlong, and I expect him to make the most of the distance. I’ll be keying the most likely winner with two prices that rank very well in the Burke Prime Ratings.
Race 4 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 1 FUN N FUN TOGETHER
Notes: This combination of 1 FUN N FUN TOGETHER (8/1) and Zac Purton has taken a liking to the All-Weather track. The Burke Prime Ratings are strong for this gelding, and only seem to improve on the surface, going 3-1-1-0. At 8/1 on the morning line, I like Zac Purton’s chances at battling back for a lead in the All-Weather standings among Hong Kong’s jockeys and like the odds even more.
Race 7 | 1400M | Class 4
Win – 1 HAROLD WIN
Notes: The pace looks like it could be pretty hot here, and it appears to benefit 1 HAROLD WIN (2/1) in a big way. The morning line odds are short, and deservedly so, but I think this gelding is back to his ideal distance and primed for a big run. He looked like a Class 3 winner in his first try in the upper ranks but couldn’t hang for the mile try in his last outing. Seven furlongs suits him much better, and he should be ready to bounce back and earn his promotion back to Class 3.
Race 8 | 1200M | Class 2
Win/Place – 4 GORGEOUS WIN
Exacta Key Box – 4 w/ 1,3
Notes: Rating second in the Burke Prime Ratings, 4 GORGEOUS WIN (21/1) was running big before his last two tries in the Class 2 ranks. The four-year-old has had a pair of tough trips leading up to this race, but his potential to make a splash is evident in his three runs prior. At 21/1 on the morning line, and without a runner I’m overly sold on, I like his shot to hit the board in this Class 2 dash. The others I like, at much shorter prices, are 1 RAGING BLIZZARD (2/1) and 3 WUNDERBAR (11/2) with two of Hong Kong’s best in the irons. Let’s play them keyed to our price play in the Exacta.
Race 9 | 1800M | Class 3
Win – 4 PACKING TURBINE
Notes: 4 PACKING TURBINE (13/1) rates clearly the best in the Burke Prime Ratings even with two races in his last five that we can basically scratch out of the program. On March 2nd, this gelding took his shot on the All-Weather surface for the first and only time, running among his worst speed figures and not being a threat. His last race was a try at ten furlongs where he was bumped at the start and was never able to fully recover from the spent energy. He’s back to nine furlongs, gets his winning rider back, and faces a field of uncertainty that I think he can take advantage of at a great morning line price of 13/1.
Race 11 | 1400M | Class 3
Quinella Box – 2,3,4,11
Notes: Saturday’s finale is a wide open seven-furlong bout with a 6/5 morning line favorite in 5 PATCH OF STARS (6/5). Less-so having a very strong opinion on the race, more playing the numbers, I’m betting against this short price based on his Burke Prime Ratings and recent form. 2 SILVERY BREEZE (5/1) is my top choice as he looks to bounce back from an underwhelming run. My other likely contenders include 3 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE (16/1), 4 ENDEARED (21/1), and 11 BEAUTY GLORY (11/1).
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