Johnny Burke: All My Bets | Sha Tin | July 1, 2025

A special Tuesday edition at Sha Tin is on deck for tomorrow morning with 10 races ready to dig into. Some familiar names to Hong Kong’s bettors are making yet another appearance in the program, so we’ll do our best to decipher the contenders from the pretenders and hope to beat the public opinions.

Helpful Resources

Sha Tin – July 1
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections

Unique Bet Types

SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order

Methodology

Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. New additions have been made to more accurately weight recent runs, and a new pace figure has been introduced to help quickly find horses with a strong pace advantage on the front and back ends of the race.

Race 1 | 1800M | Class 5
Win – 10 MR ALADDIN

Notes: Why not take a 0-for-23 lifetime runner to open this special card? 10 MR ALADDIN tops the PBR charts and will only be carrying 122 pounds in Tuesday’s lid-lifter. The second-choice in the ratings is 3 LEATHER MASTER who ran against MR ALADDIN on May 14th. LEATHER MASTER finished a fourth of a length better while carrying two pounds less over a firm course, and he rated a 113 Prime Burke Rating compared to MR ALADDIN’s 114 for the same race. That was LEATHER MASTER’s highest rated race in his last seven starts, and MR ALADDIN has put up a 114 twice in a streak of four straight 100+ rated races. We will need our top choice to put it all together and show he can go by the field, but with the numbers and a Morning Line of 13/2, I will be playing to win.

Race 3 | 1400M | Class 4
Win – 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE
Exacta Box – 2,4

Notes: The forecast is calling for light rain and there is expected to be some moisture in the grass at Sha Tin. I’m expecting a “Good” course rating, and that condition is likely to come into play in this seven-furlong sprint. Heavy Morning Line favorite, 4 MIGHTY STEED, ran an impressive 1:21:62 in his last race going seven furlongs on a “Good” course losing by just a neck. Similarly, 2 SPIRIT OF PEACE ran under similar conditions with a final time of 1:21:94 to round out a series of sub 1:22 times that rival the best finishes of most of the horses in this field. In his last run over a “Good” course, SPIRIT OF PEACE was carrying 135 pounds compared to MIGHTY STEED’s 125. That’s a ten pound and 0.32 second difference over essentially the same race. MIGHTY STEED adds three pounds (128) from his last start and SPIRIT OF PEACE drops a pair (131). At the Morning Line odds of 36/1 for SPIRIT OF PEACE and 6/5 for MIGHTY STEED, I am taking the long odds to win and boxing these two in an Exacta as the best in the field.

Race 4 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 2 LUNAR DASH

Notes: In one of the most open races I’ve seen at Hong Kong, the Morning Line favorite is 3 BROWNNEEDSFURTHER at 8/1 for his first start. I’m not going to overcomplicate this race. 2 LUNAR DASH is a three-year-old gelding by STREET BOSS who has run just once, losing by a neck at off odds of 2/1. Zac Purton stays on board for his second try, and his PBR numbers top the field. Let’s play him to win.

Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – 3 BUNDLE OF CHARM
Exacta Box – 3,12

Notes: 3 BUNDLE OF CHARM tops the PBR charts and has put up an impressive sub-1:09 time at six furlongs on both the All-Weather surface and a “Good” turf course. That kind of time exceeds the best of this field by a good margin for this distance. I think he’s the fastest in the field, and I don’t believe the pace scenario is going to be far from fair. There aren’t any big changes in the weight he’s going to carry, and John Size continues to run a hot barn in Hong Kong. At 11/1 on the Morning Line, I really like this horse’s chance and price in the penultimate race of the card. Keeping a steep handicap, 12 MATTERS MOST is getting the call back up to Class 3 and will only be carrying 114 pounds. His times have been improving, and I like his chances at being near the lead from gate to wire. Let’s box these two in the Exacta and hope to get the bigger price home.

Good luck!

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