After a weekend away, I know you were all anxiously refreshing the page waiting to see these picks appear (kidding, of course, we’ve been off to a cold start), we’re back for the mid-week Happy Valley action! It’s a rather light day with just eight races lined up, but let’s see if we can uncover something good to get us through to the weekend.
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – September 17
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather
Race 1 | 1000M | Class 5
Win – #4 NOBLE DELUXE
Quinella Box – 4,8,11
Grade: B
Notes: There isn’t a ton I love about this opening race, but my model produced two standouts and a third competitor that all happen to be priced well on the Morning Line. A few runners are dropping in class, but my model works on strength of race and individual performance regardless of the formal classification. That bit of impartiality should play in our favor in the opener as we lean against the Morning Line favorite and go for a better payout.
Race 2 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – #6 CALIFORNIA BLITZ
Quinella Box – 6,9,12
Grade: C
Notes: This is the race with the most equal distribution of win probabilities across the card. For that reason, the race gets a “C” grade from me, but that doesn’t mean we can’t take a shot on some prices that seem to all have equal shots of winning. Spread the love and hope they return the favor. It’s hard to find much other than a lot of zeroes in the win column throughout this field, so I’m going to rely on my numbers and try to sort out who might be overlooked.
Race 3 | 1800M | Class 4
Win - #9 FIREFOOT
Quinella – 9 w/ 1,3,7
Grade: A
Notes: My model points towards FIREFOOT who will have Zac Purton in the irons as he looks to continue his dominant start to the season. At a Morning Line of 8/1, I like our chances and will be keying this runner with some double-digit Morning Line entries to try and snag a big Quinella early.
Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #12 GLORY CLOUD
Quinella – 12 w/ 4,8
Grade: B
Notes: GLORY CLOUD stands out at a nice 11/1 ML and is my model’s best bet for the race assuming that line holds even remotely close to the initial odds. HONEST WITNESS, at 7/2, is a logical choice to be favored at post time. However, and it’s a capital “H” in however, my model snuck in I P O BROS at 99/1 from the oddsmakers. If I’m going to swing, I might as well swing big. Let’s put one over the fence and get this one in the Quinella.
Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - #9 SUPER UNIVERSAL
Quinella – 9 w/ 4,8,10
Grade: C
Notes: Did I mention something about taking swings? My model likes SUPER UNIVERSAL at 53/1 on the Morning Line, and at the probabilities it produced we would have to crash those odds pretty hard to get anywhere close to negative expected value. He has only run twice, both at the same distance at Sha Tin, and both with tough trips. The pure numbers like his chance to improve after the offseason, and Vincent Ho has looked good to open the season riding four of his eight starts to a top-two finish.
Race 7 | 1000M | Class 3
Win - #11 JUSTIFYING
Quinella – 11 w/ 5,7
Grade: B
Notes: JUSTIFYING is, you guessed it, another son of champion JUSTIFY running in Hong Kong. After winning on debut, he bumped up to Class 3 and has been zero-for-three in the higher ranks. He picks up a strong mount as the Frenchman, Alexis Badel, gets the call and hopes to add to this 18-4-1-2 start to the season. FRIENDS OF SHAJING missed by just under two lengths in his debut after getting bumped early, and comes back with a two-pound handicap for his sophomore run. SPICY GOLD has looked the best of my choices in the Class 3 ranks, and should be in the mix in this Quinella.
Race 8 | 1650M | Class 2
Win - #8 JUMBO LEGEND
Quinella – 8 w/ 6,10
Grade: A
Notes: JUMBO LEGEND ended his last campaign with a win going nine furlongs at Happy Valley in this division. He comes back with Vincent Ho up, and appears to be facing a somewhat susceptible field. Leading rider, Zac Purton, will be aboard SOLEIL FIGHTER who drops in class, but has yet to find a win in the Class 2 ranks. LO RIDER is also looking to break back through, but the recent form just shows him getting close and never getting over the hump. I think my top pick looks like the most primed for this run, but just in case we get snagged by a tough trip we’ll play out a Quinella with some other well-priced contenders.
Good luck!
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