We’re back to our regularly scheduled programming at Happy Valley for your midweek Hong Kong action coming off an incredible Breeders’ Cup weekend. While things change with the racing season in this hemisphere, the news is picking up in Hong Kong with the release of nominations for Hong Kong’s International Races Day on December 14th. With a list including names like Voyage Bubble (Hong Kong Triple Crown winner), Ka Ying Rising, Rebel’s Romance, Minnie Hauk, Croix Du Nord, Los Angeles, and Goliath, the iconic day of racing could quickly turn into a can’t-miss spectacle for racing fans from around the globe.
For now, in the words of the once great Bill Belichick, we’re on the Happy Valley.
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – November 5
HKJC Resource Page – Free PPs, Pace Projections, Workout Videos, Weather
Race 1 | 2200M | Class 5
Exacta 1 w/ 6
Grade: B
Notes: The card opens with an eleven-furlong bout in the Class 5 division between just seven familiar foes. #1 STORM RUNNER appears to be on track to be the best in this field by what could be a wide margin. In his only try at this distance, he came up just short, but gets to take another shot at it after a strong performance on October 8th where he ran out of track at nine furlongs. Zac Purton will be up and I think this gelding will love the extra distance. #5 LEATHER MASTER has a victory at this distance, but the six-year-old gelding doesn’t seem to be trending in the right direction. Likewise for #7 SUPER HONG KONG who is 0-for-16 in his last two seasons in Hong Kong. Instead, I’m looking towards #6 MR ALADDIN to complete our cold exacta. MR ALADDIN ran his best race in recent tries after just four days off, going from being eased up on the All-Weather surface at Sha Tin to running against STORM RUNNER at Happy Valley and finishing 3.5 lengths back. MR ALADDIN ran last week at Sha Tin as they try his short-rest routine once more. Personally, I think STORM RUNNER will be too much, but if the pattern plays out as expected, this six-year-old will have a great shot storming home late and passing tiring rivals for a commendable second-place finish.
Race 3 | 1200M | Class 4
Quinella – 2 w/ 9,11
Grade: B
Notes: #2 TOURBILLON GOLFER is a horse that Hong Kong followers have been waiting to see break through since his debut last summer. In four tries, he has been within striking distance in all four but hasn’t found his way across the finish line. To his benefit, this field is full of runners who are coming up just short and bouncing around the Class 4 ranks. The more TOURBILLON GOLFER runs well, the higher his local rating becomes, and the more weight he has to carry in these sprints. While I think he’s the best in the field, I do believe there’s more than a fair chance he still doesn’t find the finish line first in his fifth try. For that reason, I’m going to make him the cornerstone of my Quinella and include two others I believe have shown more than enough lately to say they have a good chance here. #9 ROMAN CROWN will be ridden by Hollie Doyle in her season debut in Hong Kong and will give her a great opportunity for a good first impression. This four-year-old is cutting back in distance from seven furlongs, but the notes on TOURBILLON GOLFER consistently say something along the lines of “caught at the wire” and ROMAN CROWN will likely be the best closer in the field. #11 VON BAER has been improving drastically since shortening up to these six-furlong sprints and, with a good trip, also presents a serious threat to our Morning Line favorite.
Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4
Win - #3 ABSOLUTE HONOR
Quinella Box – 3,5,9
Grade: A
Notes: I’m giving this race an “A” while boxing three horses in a Quinella because I think the value in the three selections against a vulnerable favorite make this a race well worth playing. #3 ABSOLUTE HONOR has two strong runs in his last five races that rate as highly as anyone in this field. They both came at Happy Valley going 1650m on a firm course, hypothetically the conditions we’ll see tomorrow morning. The three races in between were all six-furlong sprints, one on a wet All-Weather course and two on a “Good” Sha Tin turf course. I’m more than happy to play into that pattern in this race. #5 SMART CITY is less consistent than I like, but at his best he’s as capable as anyone in this race. That upside, and a Morning Line of 21/1 with Zac Purton aboard, are attractive enough for me to get involved. #9 CONSPIRACY WITNESS seems to only improve with added distance as of late, and while he is coming off of a short rest, his last race was very impressive in my ratings. Morning Line favorite, #4 CORLEONE, has been running some decent figures but never really approaching impressive. I think there are big expectations, but until I see them for myself I’ll be leaning heavily against.
Race 9 | 1650M | Class 3
Win - #2 EMBRACES
Quinella Box – 2,4,8
Grade: A
Notes: My numbers love #2 EMBRACES in his last two tries, and with a slightly better trip I think he has a big opportunity ahead of him tomorrow. I’m projecting a fair amount of pressure towards the front of this field, and I think some of the more shortly priced runners are going to have to fight tooth and nail to make it out of the scrum. The pace looks like it will set up some closers to have a window to get home late. Coming from the rail, Jerry Chau will have to navigate this gelding well, but for a jockey finishing in the money in 24 of his last 87 starts I’m hoping it’ll be no problem. #4 A AMERIC TE SPECSO is both a name I hate typing repeatedly and one I’ve had to write many times as I’ve chased this horse’s speed ratings more than I care to admit. However, I’m back again as he continues to look good in his seven-year-old campaign. I don’t think he’s a standout by any stretch, but he could be a nice addition to the Quinella at double-digit odds. On a good-to-firm course, #8 IVY LEAGUE continues to threaten. Unfortunately, he’s picking up an 0-for-81 mount in this one. I like the horse’s form, and am happy to tack him onto the ticket, but will not be playing him outright.
Good luck!
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