It’s hard to come back down to Earth after watching Voyage Bubble make history sweeping the Hong Kong Triple Crown, making him just the second Crown champion all-time in the series. However, as a wise man once said, money still spends the same whether it was won on the Kentucky Derby or Race 5 at Finger Lakes (no shade to Finger Lakes). Our money will still spend the same whether it comes off the back of a historic champion or a mid-card Class 5 at Happy Valley.
Hong Kong Power Ratings ROI to date: +58%
Highlights: Voyage Bubble becomes just the second ever Hong Kong Triple Crown Champion (Watch the replay here.)
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – May 28
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.
Race 1 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – 3
Quinella Box – 3,6,8
Notes: 3 – WINNING HEART (6/1 ML) has been trending in the right direction and gets back to a turf course expected to be graded “Good” early Wednesday morning. He didn’t run quite as well on a Firm course, but put up figures of 92, 86 and 84 on softer grass which would put him firmly atop this field. I like his chances outright, and we’ll play against the ML favorite, 5 – EVER SMART, who seems to run in a OXOX pattern (O being a good race, X being a down race) and is coming off one of his better performances last time out. Expect a dip, and play against with some big prices.
Race 2 | 1200M | Class 5
Win – 5
Exacta Box – 5,6
Notes: 5 – NOTTHESILLYONE (33/1 ML) is a horse on the rise who looks like he could use the extra furlong. This non-winner in 8 total starts has never run six furlongs, but has been closing well and could be set up for a big run with a favorable pace setup. I don’t have much love for morning line favorite 12 – MULTIDARLING (2/1 ML), but do see a positive pattern in 6 – RAGNARR (5/1 ML) and will keep him in the mix with our longshot.
Race 3 | 2200M | Class 4
Win - 5
Exacta Box – 5,8
Notes: 5 – ROMANTIC FANTASY (11/1 ML) had a disaster of a race three tries back but has been back to this 11-furlong distance and is putting up some very good figures. At his morning line price, I like his chances as much as some others and there could be a solid number on the tote board. 8 – PERFECT PAIRING (5/1 ML) looks like another strong contender who has preferred a less-than-firm lawn, and he should get something like that tomorrow morning.
Race 5 | 1650M | Class 4
Exacta – 1 w/ 2
Notes: 1 – PRESTIGE GOOD (2/1 ML) looks like a clear standout in this field after dropping back to Class 4, but we have another runner in great form dropping in class with a 33/1 ML price. It might be worth a half-unit bet on 2 – COMET SPLENDIDO to win at those odds, but I’m looking at the Exacta to make a short price pay big bucks.
Race 6 | 1200M | Class 4
Win - 4
Notes: 4 – MY DAY MY WAY (13/1 ML) is a lightly raced gelding, making just his sixth start but doing so in improving form. His speed figures are among the highest in the field outside of 1 – CALIFORNIA DEEPLY (2/1 ML) who spiked a 94 in his last run. I’m going to treat that big figure as more of a fluke when compared to his three previous runs which all rated in the low 70’s. I like our top pick’s form, figures, and financial potential.
Race 9 | 1200M | Class 3
Win – 4
Exacta Key Box – 4 w/ 1,2,10
Notes: 4 – GOLDEN EMPIRE (26/1 ML) has shown he can compete and win in the Class 3 division, and the 7-year-old gelding is showing a very promising pattern. He doesn’t quite have the ceiling of some others in this field, but his floor has been much higher than those same runners. I think his consistency gives him a good chance if some of the more shortly priced runners find themselves having an off day. At 26/1 on the morning line, I will try my best to capitalize on the opportunity and key him up top with the best of the field.
.svg){kind=logo}
