We’re back at Happy Valley for our usual mid-week extravaganza and hoping to wake up to a few winning tickets! As per tradition, Happy Valley is full of races with lots of variance and plenty of worthy competitors at solid morning line prices. Let’s dive in and see what we can find!
Helpful Resources
Happy Valley – June 4
Past Performances
Speed Pro Pace Projections
Unique Bet Types
SWINGER – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
QUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
TRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combination
DOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order
Methodology
Power ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. I’ve also added in daily adjustments for track biases to try to normalize any outlandish times and create a more level figures system.
Race 1 | 2200M | Class 5
Win – 11 LEATHER MASTER
Notes: 11 LEATHER MASTER rates above the field in my Power Ratings, but will have to battle to prove he can go a full eleven furlongs. At 7/2 on the ML, I do anticipate he’ll float a bit on the board and provide some needed value. He’s in good form but needs to get off to a clean start to make the most of his trip. If he can ride off the pace-setters and save enough ground from his tenth post, I believe he has a good chance at hitting the wire first.
Race 2 | 1800M | Class 4
Win – 12 KASA PAPA
Exacta Key Box – 12 w/ 2,6
Notes: In a race with little-to-no pace, the setup looks good for our top choice in eight-year-old 12 KASA PAPA. At 8/1 on the morning line, this looks like a play worth chasing. I expect our top choice to be placed forward alongside 9 FIREFOOT, but KASA PAPA should have an edge around the final turn. Whether he can fend off some strong closers or not, that will be the ultimate test, but he’ll be carrying just 117 pounds as he makes his own final push. Let’s also play the Exacta keying our top choice with two short-priced choices that look deserving of their ML odds.
Race 4 | 1650M | Class 4
Win – 1 MIDORI FUJI
Exacta – 1 w/ 2,8,9,10
Notes: 1 MIDORI FUJI looks like a clear standout and gets the best mount in Hong Kong. I think he could be the most-likely winner on the card if he stays in form. However, after our top choice the ratings plateau quickly. I’m playing our top choice over the longest prices that fit in our ratings plateau before they drop off again. We have to play the chances here, but if any of our big prices find their way forward going down the stretch we could be in for a big take.
Race 5 | 1200M | Class 4
Win – 8 LOVING VIBES
Notes: Expect 5 FREE PONY to hit the lead followed closely by 2 BIENVENUE and 8 LOVING VIBES waiting to pounce. My Power Ratings favor 8 LOVING VIBES at a bit better of a price than the ML favorite, and his final times reflect a horse that can win at a faster pace than others in this field. His speed is there, and he should get a nice trip from just outside the anticipated frontrunner while 2 BIENVENUE will be battling traffic from an inside post to get to his ideal trip.
Race 6 | 1200M | Class 3
Exacta Key Box – 11 w/ 3,5
Notes: Our key in this race rates third in the field, but by just over a point. At 11/1 roaring from far off the pace, I like this runner’s chances at coming up late and crashing the board at a big price. 3 BEAUTY INFINITY and 5 STORM RIDER should benefit from two speeds wearing each other down, and while I firmly expect either to be there at the wire I like our potential company to make a surprise run and light up the board.
Race 9 | 1200M | Class 2
Exacta Key Box – 4 w/ 1,2,11
Notes: There are four major contenders here according to my Power Ratings, and when presented with this situation I tend to lock up the biggest price of them all and key them in some exotics with the other big runners. In this case, we’ve got 4 GUSTOSISIMO (22/1 ML) tied to three of the more shortly priced horses in the field, all of which have a more-than-fair chance at taking the finale in Hong Kong. Let’s hope our longshot lives up to his speed figures and wraps up the day with a bang.
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