Saturday’s Tampa Bay Downs card includes the co-featured Gasparilla Stakes and Wayward Lass Stakes, the latter kicking off the late pick 4. Horseplayers tackling that sequence will play for an additional 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points in a Hit & Split promotion. First post will be 12:30 pm ET with the late pick 4 starting in Race 7 at 3:32 pm ET. Let’s get to work.
Tampa Bay Downs: Race 7 | Wayward Lass Stakes
Late-running Kentucky Oaks runner-up #6 Drexel Hill came back solidly in November off the layoff in the Mother Goose. She’s never faced elders and the pace scenario here can be orchestrated by a trio of Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees, so she has some challenges. Respect her while noting the Joseph runners are difficult to separate and not worthy of making the ticket 4 times the price in a 6-horse field.
Tampa Bay Downs: Race 8 | allowance
#4 Mystic Sea for Bill Mott and #2 Perky for Miguel Clement have to be considered off these connections at Tampa. But a couple of stats plays merit depth in this race, including jockey Antonio Gallardo aboard #3 Expecting a Winner. If you’re concerned about the mare stretching out a bit in distance, not this jockey is 26% winners and 15-35 in the exacta over 9 furlongs on turf at Tampa the last 3 years with a $1.58 profit for every $1 bet. He rides the trip best. Also include #8 Frida for a Jose D’Angelo barn that is a fantastic 10: 4-3-0 in Tampa 9F turf races the past 3 years with $19 and $21 winners ($2.56 ROI for every $1 bet).
Tampa Bay Downs: Race 9 | maiden
Experienced horses win about twice the rate at first-time starters historically in Tampa 3-year-old maiden special weight sprints at this trip the past decade. Only 3 of these 12 have appeared in the afternoon so far, so the likelihood of a rookie obviously increases. But experienced filly #2 Inspire Courage is most interesting to me on the cut-back in distance. She’s fast enough in prior turf sprints to play at this trip and note sire Medaglia d’Oro gets a strong 19% winners on the Tampa dirt with a $1.33 ROI for every $1 bet. She’s bred to handle the surface change and gets Lasix for the first time. Among the first-timers, #7 Princess Vekoma’s sire Vekoma is a strong 17: 3-6-2 on the Tampa dirt with more than 50% in the exacta, while #8 Muffin Thief’s sire Maximus Mischief gets an outstanding 22% winners on the local main track … this one has a bullet workout for the first try.
Tampa Bay Downs: Race 10 | maiden
#7 Celtic Motif has had 7 chances to break her maiden, but her only 2 in US maiden races were very good second-place finishes for Chad Brown (who wins nearly 33% in Tampa turf MSW in January starts). She’s an obvious threat. #5 Queen Dancing got no pace help at Gulfstream, but ran on decently and her start at Keeneland puts her in contention for Bill Mott. You could likely stop there. A couple of others to consider on back-up tickets are useful enough, but not required. Sharp-training British export #6 Vronti adds Lasix off solid overseas form, but note Graham Motion just 3-for-42 in Tampa turf MSW races in Januarys past. #10 Pop Art was a clear-cut second last out with a big gap to the rest in a similar Tampa spot, though this field projects to be a bit tougher. $750K purchase needs to break this maiden condition to up her broodmare stock potentially.
The Ticket
6 with 3,8,4,2 with 2,7,8 with 7,5 = $12 for 50 cents
.svg){kind=logo}
