Jeremy Plonk: Saturday’s California Gold Rush Day at Santa Anita Analysis

SHARE THIS ARTICLE

Five stakes races are featured Saturday for the California Gold Rush Day at Santa Anita, starring top state-breds across several racing divisions. Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET also can take part in a $2,000 Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Promotion on the final 4 races each day through Memorial Day Monday. Saturday’s late pick 4 includes the Melair Stakes and the Snow Chief Stakes.

Let’s get to work.

Race 3: $100,000 Thor’s Echo Stakes
Four last-out winners are among the 7 sprinters, while 2 others were recent runners-up in photo-finish defeats. Current form abounds, but the lightly raced 7-year-old #5 Big City Lights (6-5 ML odds) still manages to stand out. He’s 6 of 8 locally, including an open-company allowance May 2 in his first start of the year. Trainer Richard Mandella’s runners have won 3 of 6 starts locally since the start of May heading into this important racing weekend and are trending the right direction. Since The Chosen Vron’s retirement, his former rival has assumed the baton as best sprinter among the Cal-breds. He’ll be a single for me in early multi-race bets. As for exactas, consider #3 Uncle Chilly (10-1 ML odds) a late-moving threat in a race with plenty of tempo as he steps up in class after 3 straight wins since coming to the barn of Jeff Mullins.

Race 4: $100,000 Fran’s Valentine Stakes
Filly and mare turf milers try to come up with an answer for #3 Grand Slam Smile (1-1 ML odds), who is a head shy of winning her last 5 starts in the Cal-bred ranks. The Sean McCarthy gets right into the race and throws down the challenge, and a 20: 11-6-3 career mark indicates just how salty she can be. While turf hasn’t been her calling card, #8 Om N Joy (5-1 ML odds) should be considered the late threat. She rattled off 5 straight wins last year, including the Melair on this Gold Rush Day card, and has been taking on graded stakes company since last summer. Sire Om was a spectacular turf miler, so perhaps she’s ready to take to the grass better than she did early in her career when finishing third or fourth in 3 local grass bids. Hard to see this race getting beyond that pair. At 5-1 or more, taking a shot on Om N Joy would have appeal.

Race 6: $100,000 Crystal Water Stakes
The Cal-bred turf mile scene for the colts and geldings attracted 9 entrants, including #7 Flyover (1-1 ML odds), an all-or-nothing pace player with a 10: 5-0-0 lifetime mark, mostly in turf sprints. He’s obviously the horse to catch, but his ledger and this 2-turn trip give you reason to entertain shopping. Anyone short on stamina or distance will pay the price against his speed, so think late-runners if wanting to pull the upset. #1 Santa Barbarian rallied to win the 9-furlong Snow Chief on this card last year and should have benefitted from a well-placed allowance return April 26 after 10 months away. The blinkers removed from #3 Cali Cat (6-1 ML) could help awaken Santa Barbarian’s 2025 Snow Chief closest pursuer and I expect him to be heard from late. Give me the well-drawn 1-3 duo intra-race and multi-race in the Crystal Water.

Race 7: $125,00 Melair Stakes
Sprint-bred #4 Mohaven (3-5 ML odds) obviously is the most accomplished in this lineup with wins in the Golden State Juvenile Fillies and Evening Jewel Stakes. But the John Sadler trainee is questionable around 2 turns based on pedigree and lack of experience, and she has yet to score consecutive victories despite 3 wins in 6 starts. Respect, but don’t concede this race to her. The 2-turn record for #5 Cecilia Street (12-1 ML odds) impresses at 5: 1-2-2 with dirt sprint races really soiling her form. I like the rider change to Antonio Fresu here. Given the struggles of the Leonard Powell barn, demand a fair price, but I’d like her at 6-1 or more. And prices? How about #6 Lino’s Angel (30-1 ML odds). She’s bred to run long but has just been an even-steven sprinter in all 12 starts. She could really appreciate the stretchout and notice a very fast uptick in her workouts since that last start. Why not at that number?

Race 8: $125,000 Snow Chief Stakes
It’s a long way from turf sprints to 1-1/8 miles for favorite #3 He’s a Knockout (6-5 ML odds). He’s been brilliant in 2 wire-to-wire scores, but he’s never run 2 races in a form cycle and we don’t know he’ll respond to that comeback sprint win April 19. Won’t take a short price, but tip the cap if he beats me. #7 Third Beer (6-1 ML odds) has been facing tougher and is 2-for-2 when dropped into the state-bred ranks. This colt is bred for the distance and has been solid-enough late in turf miles to think the additional furlong is within his grasp. Moved too soon last time under Florent Geroux and could get a more patient ride from Kazushi Kimura. #1 Unrivaled Time adds blinkers, saves ground from the rail and drops in class after facing tougher in each of his last 3. Could be a wakeup day for the Leonard Powell barn as he has a couple of live chances.

If you’re looking at playing the Late Pick 4 Hit & Split promotion, I like the post, turf-to-dirt move, stretch-out and hot George Papaprodomou barn with #2 Known Idea (7-2 ML odds) in Race 9. And deuces wild for me in the Race 10 finale as #2 Tight Daily (20-1 ML odds) gets a real longshot look for a Peter Eurton barn having a strong run in May at Santa Anita. This is the classic Jeff Siegel “2 sprints and then a route” form cycle that could be ready for a breakout maiden score.

SHARE THIS ARTICLE
CONTINUE READING