The Lead:
It doesn't get any better than Kentucky Derby Day: great horses, giant pools, expanded wagering options. We have you covered for the Run for the Roses in the 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide. But the annual lead-in is the Turf Classic, and an international cast of 10 will precede the Kentucky Derby in Race 11. It's a part of several multi-race and multi-day bets including a 2-day pick 3, 2-day pick 6 and Saturday all-turf pick 4 ... among the traditional, multi-race sequences. Be sure to play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon this Friday and Saturday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for your share of extra cash.
Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners PROGRAM TRADING, RHETORICAL, GOLD PHOENIX and TEST SCORE have signature scores on their ledgers, while MERCANTE is Grade 1-placed. Grade 2 winners include ASBURY PARK and foreign raider MAKE ME KING.
Pace:
CORRUPTION and MERCANTE could set a modest pace here with RHETORICAL and ASTRONOMER most likely to apply pressure if it's to come. A deep closer could be compromosed by this race shape.
Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.
#1-CORRPUTION: Rail pace player has been turned into a turf marathoner while facing lesser competition. Worst races on his form have come at Churchill and at the Grade 1 level, so bad combination for Saturday’s assignment. Impacts the tempo if Johnny V is aggressive holding position.
#2-DASHMAN: Another who hasn’t shown the propensity to compete with sharp, middle-distance turfers. Likely to expend more in keeping up than he’d prefer and be left empty late despite a good post draw. Jockey Joel Rosario comes off a disappointing Keeneland performance.
#3-ASBURY PARK: October returnee takes on elders for the first time in stakes company, but 4-year-olds have been very strong in this race over the years. Well-bred Frankel colt broke his maiden off a10-month layoff last summer and can fire fresh under Flavien Prat – who jumps off Grade 1 winner Program Trading to pilot. There cause for pause and optimism, so demand that 8-1 morning line price. Chad Brown aims for a 3-peat in the Turf Classic.
#4-PROGRAM TRADING: The 2024 Turf Classic winner (pictured, inside) missed the spring of 2025 on the sidelines and returns at age 6. Chad Brown adds blinkers to this $1.6 million earner for the first time in 13 starts, but Flavien Prat jumps seats to ride stablemate Asbury Park. Okay efforts in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and Mervin Muniz Memorial in his 2 starts this year, but he’s 0-for-5 since being sidelined over 14 months beginning in summer 2024.
#5-MERCANTE: 13-1 runner-up here a season ago in the Turf Classic has gone 1-for-7 since, but very consistent in races beyond a mile. Reliable Brian Knippenberg trainee hasn’t missed the super in 4 tries over this course and takes the same prep path as a year ago when he just missed defending his title in Turfway’s Kentucky Cup Classic on synthetic. Probably a double-digit price again and not without a case.
#6-RHETORICAL: True miler will be tested at his farthest distance to date, but it’s difficult to argue this one’s consistent brilliance. Trainer Will Walden is having a banner 2026 on the stats ledger and regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is worth a couple lengths alone the way he’s been riding. Clearly the horse to beat as the 5-2 morning line favorite and very well could be shorter than that. Perhaps the distance questions help hold that price.
#7-GOLD PHOENIX: Eight-year-old Duke of Del Mar finished a late-running fourth in this race last year and returns from his California base. Phil D’Amato has San Luis Rey Stakes-winning pilot Hector Berrios back for the ride as that jockey is in town to ride Intrepido in the Derby. The 1-1/8 miles distance is perhaps a too-sharp trip for this gelding who excels at 10-12 furlongs, but his effort last year puts him in the exotics hunt.
#8-ASTRONOMER: After starting his career 3-for-6, he stepped into the stakes ranks and hasn’t found the winner’s circle in 19 tries. But it’s without some close calls, 3 times a Grade 2 runner-up. Appears a cut below these for trainer Simon Callaghan. Expect Javier Castellano to have him closer to the pace than many of his previous starts.
#9-TEST SCORE: Ever-consistent Graham Motion trainee was runner-up in the American Turf last year during Derby Weekend when facing fellow 3-year-olds. He’s proven himself against elders, winning January’s Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream under Manny Franco, his regular rider who returns Saturday. The caution is the 3-month layoff as he lost his debut and exiting a similar break to open his 2025 season as the favorite – showing some vulnerability on being able to win off of works alone.
#10-MAKE ME KING: World traveler makes his US debut, having raced in Dubai, Qatar, England and France. Wathnan Racing and trainer Hamad Al-Jehani won Woodbine’s Grade 1 Canadian International last Fall with Silawi. This Dark Angel colt has been a pure miler overseas until stretching out last time when fourth in the Grade 1 Dubai Turf. That fourth-place finish behind internationally acclaimed Ombudsman would stack up well with these. I like international horses pairing with American jockeys, and Jose Ortiz has been off to a blazing start at Churchill Downs.
Most Likely Exotics Contender:
RHETORICAL is 8-8 in the superfecta, and while the trip might be a bit farther than his best, expect him to be thoroughly involved in the stretch.
Best Longshot Contender:
MERCANTE may fit the winning trends of this race best of all. Over the past 13 years, horses coming off top-2 finishes between a mile and 1-1/18 miles while racing within the last 42 days have had overwhelming success in the Turf Classic. He’ll match up with a slew of horses shortening trips, returning from layoffs and trying to bounce back from worse defeats.
Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$25 win MERCANTE. $25 exacta part-wheel ASBURY PARK, RHETORICAL, TEST SCORE over MERCANTE ($75).
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