.png){kind=logo}
1/st bet // xpressbet
wager guide
%20(1).jpg)
The Kentucky Derby is one of the most enjoyable races of the year to handicap, but it is also one of the more challenging. Horseplayers need to try to find edges. Some will look to speed figures, biases, and trips, all of which are extremely informative and important. Analyzing the quality and depth of the races the Derby starters exit can also help lead to a big score on the first Saturday in May.
Here are the preps I found most productive heading into the 150th Run for the Roses.
The mid-February event in New Orleans has picked up a ton of steam over the last few years. The timing of the race on the calendar, as well as the 9 furlongs and a long stretch run have made this a popular spot for many of the game’s top conditioners. Locally based trainers like Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen regularly run their top three-year-olds in the Risen Star while top East Coast based conditioners Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher have been willing to send some of their best prospects to the Bayou as well. The 2024 edition once again stands out as the clear top Derby qualifier with the top five finishers all set to break from the starting gates at Churchill Downs on May 4.
Sierra Leone who ran down Track Phantom went on to win the Blue Grass, while Catching Freedom rebounded from his third-place finish to capture the Louisiana Derby from well off the pace. Add to that Wood Memorial victor Resilience and Kentucky Jockey Club winner and Louisiana Derby runner-up Honor Marie, and it is pretty obvious that the Risen Star at Fair Grounds is at the top of the heap in 2024.
Some years, like 2019 for instance, the Juvenile is not a key race whatsoever when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, but most years it deserves to at least be somewhere in the Top 5. This year it belongs here without question with likely Derby favorite Fierceness, having won the two-million-dollar event at Santa Anita Park last November by over six lengths.
In addition to the Repole Stable colt, the race featured runner-up Muth who is not eligible for the Derby in 2024, but was impressive in the Arkansas Derby. He was the 3-1-morning line favorite for Preakness Future Pool 2, which is open currently through 6 pm on Derby Day, May 4. Locked and Timberlake also will not compete in the Derby, but add quality and depth to this group. Locked is on the sidelines with a knee injury, while Timberlake will try shorter distances after his off-the-board finish as the public choice in the Arkansas Derby.
It is well documented that the signature event for the Keeneland spring meet has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Strike the Gold in 1991, but this feels like a streak ready to be broken. Sure, Zandon, Essential Quality and Good Magic failed to capture the roses in recent years, but it is not as if they did not perform well. Maybe this will be the year.
2024 Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone certainly will receive a ton of attention at the windows and deservingly so. Lightly raced Just a Touch ran a big second stalking the early pace and appears to have a load of upside. Dornoch ran a disappointing fourth, but will likely be involved early in the Derby under Luis Saez. Third-place finisher Epic Ride is close to drawing into the Derby field with recent defections. He is not impossible underneath at a big price.
With the Blue Grass Stakes a popular final destination for the connections of Risen Star competitors, the final Derby qualifier in New Orleans has been a bit weaker than its prep over the last few years. However, it has been a strong event in its own right and that once again was the case in 2024. The winner Catching Freedom is likely to be the third or fourth choice on the first Saturday in May, while Honor Marie should be rolling late in his third start of the form cycle. Track Phantom may have peaked over the winter, but he brings a strong resume to Louisville after his fourth-place finish in this one. With a good break he should be a pace player at the very least.
.jpg)
The road to the Derby in Hot Springs, was not super strong in 2024, but the premier event of the Oaklawn winter meeting still deserves mention. It is super disappointing Muth is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby, but that does not take anything away from his talent and where he likely stacks up against this crop. The Good Magic colt will have a chance to prove himself in Maryland. Just Steel and Mystik Dan completed the trifecta and will be big prices in Louisville. They merit consideration underneath in the exotics, particularly Just Steel who was caught wide throughout in the Rebel Stakes but otherwise has been the model of consistency and has the pedigree to relish the 1 ¼ miles.
Good luck in this year's Derby!
.jpg)
Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.
Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.
Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.
Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.
Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.
Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.
Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.
Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges
A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.
The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono
Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.
Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.
$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.
Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.
Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.
Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..
Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.
Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.
Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.
Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.
Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.
Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.
Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.
Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.
Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.
Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.
Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.
Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.
Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.
Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges
A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.
The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono
Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.
Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.
$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.
Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.
Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.
Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..
Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.
Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.
Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.
Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.
Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.
Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.
Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.
Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.
Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.
Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.
Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.
Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.
Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.
Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges
A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.
The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono
Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.
Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.
$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.
Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.
Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.
Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..
Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.
Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.
Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.
Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.
Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.
Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.
Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.
Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.
Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.
Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.
Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.
Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.
Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.
Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges
A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.
The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono
Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.
Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.
$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.
Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.
Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.
Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..
Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.
Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.
Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.
Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.
Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.
Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.
SIERRA LEONE
JUST A TOUCH
STRONGHOLD
JUST STEEL
FIERCENESS
SIERRA LEONE
JUST A TOUCH
CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
FOREVER YOUNG
FIERCENESS
CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
FOREVER YOUNG
FIERCENESS
FOREVER YOUNG
SIERRA LEONE
CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
FOREVER YOUNG
CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
HONOR MARIE
JUST A TOUCH
TRACK PHANTOM
FOREVER YOUNG
FIERCENESS
SIERRA LEONE
CATCHING FREEDOM
JUST A TOUCH
SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
JUST STEEL
JUST A TOUCH
CATCHING FREEDOM
FIERCENESS
RESILIENCE
SIERRA LEONE
FOREVER YOUNG
.jpg)
JUST A TOUCH
SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
CATCHING FREEDOM
JUST A TOUCH
SIERRA LEONE
RESILIENCE
CATALYTIC
FIERCENESS
RESILIENCE
SIERRA LEONE
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
FIERCENESS
SIERRA LEONE
STRONGHOLD
FOREVER YOUNG
CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
FIERCENESS
The 1/ST BET 'Machine' analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors for each race to create an exclusive handicapping outcome driven by big data.
The 1/ST BET 'Machine' analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors for each race to create an exclusive handicapping outcome driven by big data.
SCENE SETTER: Friday’s Kentucky Oaks offers a first-ever matchup between the stars of the 3-year-old filly division: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner JUST F Y I, Fair Grounds Oaks heroine TARIFA and Fantasy Stakes winner THORPEDO ANNA. They each have just a single loss from 13 combined starts entering their epic, first-time clash. Add into the mix LESLIE’S ROSE, upset winner over JUST F Y I in the Ashland Stakes, and herself defeated just once in 4 starts. It’s been since Silverbulletday in 1998-’99 that a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner added the Kentucky Oaks the following spring, providing JUST F Y I not only a historical hurdle, but also a potential place in history.
NOTES:
Derby Dozen Have Delivered
Each of the last 12 Kentucky Derby post-time favorites have finished in the superfecta (11 in the trifecta, 9 in the exacta, 6 in the winner’s circle). The last misfire? Dialed In, 8th in 2011.
Last Couple from the Clouds
Mage and Rich Strike have rallied from far back to win the past 2 Derby editions. Mage came from 16th (13-1/4 lengths behind), while Rich Strike was even farther back in 18th (17-1/4 lengths behind). They’re the deepest closers to win since Orb overcame 18-3/4 lengths in 2013.
Florida Derby Did It Again
Last year Mage became the 25th Florida Derby alumnus to win the Kentucky Derby, most of any prep. The Gulfstream springboard now is 2 wins ahead of Keeneland’s Blue Grass (23) on the all-time list. Those 2 races have produced this year’s favorites, Fierceness and Sierra Leone.
SCENE SETTER: The Kentucky Derby Class of 2024 established its clear leader when Fierceness dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in December en route to being named Champion 2-Year-Old. And while he whistled into Louisville on the heels of a record-setting 13-1/2 length winning margin in the Florida Derby, it’s his 2 sobering defeats in 5 career starts that provide optimism to the opposition. That line of challengers is led by Sierra Leone, a nose away from perfection in 4 starts, the last 3 of which were at 1-1/8 miles in distance, a Derby rarity in lead-up stamina. Japan sends not 1 unbeaten colt, but 2, in Forever Young and T O Password. And after $163 and $32 longshot winners the past few first Saturdays in May, hope springs eternal for those trying to find the next price.
NOTES:
Jockey to win back-to-back: Victor Espinoza (2014 California Chrome, 2015 American Pharoah)
Trainer to win back-to-back: Bob Baffert (1997 Silver Charm, 1998 Real Quiet)
Jockey to win Derby debut: Sonny Leon (2022 Rich Strike)
Trainer to win Derby debut: Eric Reed (2022 Rich Strike)
Jockey to win Oaks & Derby same year: Calvin Borel (2009 Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird); note John Velazquez won the ’21 Oaks aboard Malathaat, but his Derby-winning mount Medina Spirit was later disqualified.
Winner to close from more than 10 lengths back: Mage (2023); previously Rich Strike (2022); previously Orb (2013)
Heavier Campaigns Winning Out
The last 7 winners of the Kentucky Derby all had 3 or 4 preps during that current year. Nyquist (2016) was the last 2-prep success story in Louisville.
Building on a Title
The reigning 2-Year-Old Champion owns a 21-for-80 record in the Kentucky Derby all-time. Fierceness will try to become the first to win the roses since Nyquist in 2016.
Front-Running Fiends
Only 5 horses have won the Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire over the past 50 years: Bold Forbes (1976), Spend a Buck (1985), Winning Colors (1988), War Emblem (2002) and Authentic (2020).
SCENE SETTER: The Kentucky Derby pace often tells the tale of how the race was won. Go fast early, find winners rallying from the clouds like Mage and Rich Strike the past two years. Go slow early, and the pacesetters may even hold for a 1-2-3 finish like American Pharoah’s 2015 run to the roses over Firing Line and Dortmund. Under peak track conditions, the time for the opening half-mile of the Kentucky Derby teeters around the 46-second mark. Early paces faster than 46 seconds more often than not overcook the front-runners and are too fast. Those 46 seconds or over make the deep closers’ job much more difficult to make up ground. How fast might this year’s pace be? Of all the pertinent American prep races, only Keeneland’s Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby were contested under a fast pace in the 46-second range.
NOTES:
Arkansas Derby alum to win: Country House (2019)
Blue Grass alum to win: Street Sense (2007)
Trainer to win Oaks & Derby same year: Ben Jones (1952) with Real Delight & Hill Gail
Florida Derby alum to win: Mage (2023)
Louisiana Derby alum to win: Mandaloun (2021)
Female trainer to compete: Victoria Oliver (2021 Hidden Stash, 13th by DQ)
Santa Anita Derby alum to win: Authentic (2020)
Jeff Ruby alum to win: Rich Strike (2022)
Wood Memorial alum to win: Funny Cide (2003)
Stick Around for the Finish
The last 5 Derbies have been decided by 5-1/4 combined lengths. The last Kentucky Derby decided by 3 lengths or more was Mine That Bird’s 2009 blowout by 6-3/4 lengths.
Hundred-Dollar Club
Five Kentucky Derby winners have returned $100-plus for a $2 win bet. Donerail (1913) paid $184.90; Rich Strike (2022) paid $163.60; Country House (2019) paid $132.40; Mine That Bird (2009) paid $103.20; and Giacomo (2005) paid $102.60.
SCENE SETTER: The path to the Kentucky Derby has changed over a century and a half to be sure. But even modern preparation contours to meet new schedules and new styles of training. Even into the early 2000s, races like the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Tampa Bay Derby and Jeff Ruby were midseason destinations that funneled Derby hopefuls into the big four final preps: the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby. With today’s horsemen desiring more time between starts, racetracks altering their schedules to get into the major prep mix, and international race qualifiers added to build the Derby brand worldwide, we have a much more robust matchup than just a clash of the traditional big four preps. Horses from 11 different last-race preps are expected. The Florida Derby leads by spring-boarding 25 Kentucky Derby winners all-time.
NOTES:
Momentum Builds from Japan
This will be the third straight year with Japanese interests in the starting gate. To date, runners raced in Japan are 6: 0-0-0 in the Kentucky Derby. Master Fencer (2019) and Derma Sotogake (2023) fared best when 6th in their respective events.
20th Anniversary: Smarty Jones
One of the most popular Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners of the modern era celebrates an anniversary this year with the rags to riches “Philadelphia Flyer” Smarty Jones. The Arkansas Derby winner earned a $5 million bonus paid by Oaklawn Park and graced the cover of Sports Illustrated, whose headline read “Why Everyone Loves Smarty Jones.” The 23-year-old currently resides in his native Pennsylvania.
%20copy%203.svg){kind=small}