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wager guide

kentucky derby

sat/may4 2024

churchill downs

louisville, ky

1/st bet // xpressbet

wager guide

kentucky derby

sat/may4 2024

churchill downs

louisville, ky

kentucky derby wager guide

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kentucky OAKS & derby

NEED-TO-KNOW

HOST SITE:
CHURCHILL DOWNS // LOUISVILLE, KY
RACE DATE:
KY OAKS: FRIDAY, MAY 3, 2024
KY DERBY: SATURDAY, MAY 4, 2024
POST POSITION DRAW:
SATURDAY, APRIL 27
FIRST RACE POST TIME:
10:30AM ET - FRIDAY, MAY 3
10:30AM ET - SATURDAY, MAY 4
WATCH FREE AND WAGER:
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TELEVISION:
1:00 - 6:00PM ET USA NETWORK & PEACOCK // FRIDAY
NOON - 2:20PM ET USA NETWORK & PEACOCK //SATURDAY
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WAGERING NOTES:
ADVANCED WAGERING // FRIDAY
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KENTUCKY DERBY TOURNAMENT // SATURDAY // XPRESSBET.COM

KENTUCKY DERBY sTAKES lineup (ALL TIMES ET)

G1 KENTUCKY DERBY
$5M
RACE 12
6:57PM
1 1/4 MI
G1 TURF CLASSIC
$1M
RACE 11
5:27PM
1 1/8 MI (T)
G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS
$1M
RACE 10
4:31PM
7 FUR
G1 AMERICAN TURF
$600K
RACE 9
3:40PM
1 1/16 MI (T)
G2 PAT DAY MILE
$600K
RACE 8
2:46PM
1 MI
G2 DISTAFF TURF MILE
$750K
RACE 7
1:56PM
1 MI (T)
G1 DISTAFF
$1M
RACE 6
1:14PM
7 FUR
G2 TURF SPRINT
$600K
RACE 5
12:36PM
5 1/2 FUR (T)
G2 KNICKS GO OVERNIGHT
$200K
RACE 4
12:04PM
1 MI

wager guide update schedule

MONDAY, APRIL 29
FREE BETMIX KY OAKS DAY & DERBY DAY PPS // WORKOUT UPDATES
TUESDAY, APRIL 30
MILLIE BALL KY OAKS PICKS // BEST BET UPDATED PICKS
WEDNESDAY, MAY 1
JEFF SIEGEL KY DERBY PICKS // JEREMY PLONK KY DERBY PICKS // KY OAKS DAY & KY DERBY DAY AI FULL-CARD PICKS
THURSDAY, MAY 2
EDDIE OLCZYK KY DERBY PICKS // FIRST CALL PODCAST // SCRATCH UPDATES // EXPERT PICKS UPDATES DUE TO SCRATCHES
FRIDAY, MAY 3
FINAL PICKS UPDATES // FIRST CALL PODCAST | JEFF SIEGEL & JEREMY PLONK

ROAD TO THE DERBY

my top 5 key derby preps

SCOTT SHAPIRO

The Kentucky Derby is one of the most enjoyable races of the year to handicap, but it is also one of the more challenging. Horseplayers need to try to find edges. Some will look to speed figures, biases, and trips, all of which are extremely informative and important. Analyzing the quality and depth of the races the Derby starters exit can also help lead to a big score on the first Saturday in May.

Here are the preps I found most productive heading into the 150th Run for the Roses.

1. RISEN STAR / FAIR GROUNDS

The mid-February event in New Orleans has picked up a ton of steam over the last few years. The timing of the race on the calendar, as well as the 9 furlongs and a long stretch run have made this a popular spot for many of the game’s top conditioners. Locally based trainers like Brad Cox and Steve Asmussen regularly run their top three-year-olds in the Risen Star while top East Coast based conditioners Chad Brown and Todd Pletcher have been willing to send some of their best prospects to the Bayou as well. The 2024 edition once again stands out as the clear top Derby qualifier with the top five finishers all set to break from the starting gates at Churchill Downs on May 4.

Sierra Leone who ran down Track Phantom went on to win the Blue Grass, while Catching Freedom rebounded from his third-place finish to capture the Louisiana Derby from well off the pace. Add to that Wood Memorial victor Resilience and Kentucky Jockey Club winner and Louisiana Derby runner-up Honor Marie, and it is pretty obvious that the Risen Star at Fair Grounds is at the top of the heap in 2024.

2. BREEDERS' CUP JUVENILE / SANTA ANITA

Some years, like 2019 for instance, the Juvenile is not a key race whatsoever when it comes to the Kentucky Derby, but most years it deserves to at least be somewhere in the Top 5. This year it belongs here without question with likely Derby favorite Fierceness, having won the two-million-dollar event at Santa Anita Park last November by over six lengths.

In addition to the Repole Stable colt, the race featured runner-up Muth who is not eligible for the Derby in 2024, but was impressive in the Arkansas Derby. He was the 3-1-morning line favorite for Preakness Future Pool 2, which is open currently through 6 pm on Derby Day, May 4. Locked and Timberlake also will not compete in the Derby, but add quality and depth to this group. Locked is on the sidelines with a knee injury, while Timberlake will try shorter distances after his off-the-board finish as the public choice in the Arkansas Derby.

3. BLUE GRASS / KEENELAND

It is well documented that the signature event for the Keeneland spring meet has not produced a Kentucky Derby winner since Strike the Gold in 1991, but this feels like a streak ready to be broken. Sure, Zandon, Essential Quality and Good Magic failed to capture the roses in recent years, but it is not as if they did not perform well. Maybe this will be the year.

2024 Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone certainly will receive a ton of attention at the windows and deservingly so. Lightly raced Just a Touch ran a big second stalking the early pace and appears to have a load of upside. Dornoch ran a disappointing fourth, but will likely be involved early in the Derby under Luis Saez. Third-place finisher Epic Ride is close to drawing into the Derby field with recent defections. He is not impossible underneath at a big price.

4. LOUISIANA DERBY / FAIR GROUNDS

With the Blue Grass Stakes a popular final destination for the connections of Risen Star competitors, the final Derby qualifier in New Orleans has been a bit weaker than its prep over the last few years. However, it has been a strong event in its own right and that once again was the case in 2024. The winner Catching Freedom is likely to be the third or fourth choice on the first Saturday in May, while Honor Marie should be rolling late in his third start of the form cycle. Track Phantom may have peaked over the winter, but he brings a strong resume to Louisville after his fourth-place finish in this one. With a good break he should be a pace player at the very least.

5. ARKANSAS DERBY / OAKLAWN

The road to the Derby in Hot Springs, was not super strong in 2024, but the premier event of the Oaklawn winter meeting still deserves mention. It is super disappointing Muth is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby, but that does not take anything away from his talent and where he likely stacks up against this crop. The Good Magic colt will have a chance to prove himself in Maryland. Just Steel and Mystik Dan completed the trifecta and will be big prices in Louisville. They merit consideration underneath in the exotics, particularly Just Steel who was caught wide throughout in the Rebel Stakes but otherwise has been the model of consistency and has the pedigree to relish the 1 ¼ miles.

Good luck in this year's Derby!

pegasus world cup

post positions

1
TAIBA
(8-1)
Owner:
Zedan Racing
Trainer:
Bob Baffert
Jockey:
Mike Smith
2
LIFE IS GOOD
(6-1)
Owner:
Winstar Farm
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz Jr.
3
HAPPY SAVER
(30-1)
Owner:
Wertheimer Et Frere
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Jockey:
John Velazquez
4
FLIGHTLINE
(3-5)
Owner:
Hronis Racing
Trainer:
John Sadler
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
5
HOT ROD CHARLIE
(15-1)
Owner:
Roadrunner Racing
Trainer:
Doug O'Neill
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffallone
6
EPICENTER
(5-1)
Owner:
Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
7
OLYMPIAD
(10-1)
Owner:
Grandview Equine
Trainer:
William Mott
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
8
RICH STRIKE
(20-1)
Owner:
Red Tr-Racing
Trainer:
Eric Reed
Jockey:
Sonny Leon

meet the

KENTUCKY DERBY

contenders

DORNOCH
1
STATS →
DORNOCH
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-2-0
Career Earnings:
$552,275
Past 5 Races:
4-1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Puca

Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.

SIERRA LEONE
2
STATS →
SIERRA LEONE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$918,000
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark bay or brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Gun Runner-Heavenly Love

Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.

MYSTIK DAN
3
STATS →
MYSTIK DAN
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$641,360
Past 5 Races:
3-1-5-5-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Goldencents-Ma'am

Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.

CATCHING FREEDOM
4
STATS →
CATCHING FREEDOM
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-1
Career Earnings:
$877,350
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-4-1
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Constitution-Catch My Drift

Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.

CATALYTIC
5
STATS →
CATALYTIC
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$216,825
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Catalina Cruiser-One Show Only

Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.

JUST STEEL
6
STATS →
JUST STEEL
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
11: 2-4-1
Career Earnings:
$724,545
Past 5 Races:
2-7-2-2-1
Jockey:
Keith Asmussen
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Justify-Irish Lights

Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

HONOR MARIE
7
STATS →
HONOR MARIE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$526,175
Past 5 Races:
2-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ben Curtis
Trainer:
Whit Beckman
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Honor Code-Dame Marie

Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.

JUST A TOUCH
8
STATS →
JUST A TOUCH
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$281,700
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Justify-Touching Beauty

Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges

ENCINO
9
STATS →
SCRATCHED
ENCINO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$378,315
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Axel Concepcion
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Nyquist-Glittering Jewel

A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.

T O PASSWORD
10
STATS →
T O PASSWORD
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
2: 2-0-0
Career Earnings:
$163,339
Past 5 Races:
1-1
Jockey:
Kazushi Kimura
Trainer:
Daisuke Takayanagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Copano RIckey-TO Rachel

The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono

FOREVER YOUNG
11
STATS →
FOREVER YOUNG
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
5: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$2,049,451
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Real Steel-Forever Darling

Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.

TRACK PHANTOM
12
STATS →
TRACK PHANTOM
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-2-1
Career Earnings:
$405,000
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
Quality Road-Miss Sunset

Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.

WEST SARATOGA
13
STATS →
WEST SARATOGA
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
10: 2-5-1
Career Earnings:
$460,140
Past 5 Races:
2-3-2-5-1
Jockey:
Jesus Castanon
Trainer:
Larry Demeritte
Color/Age:
Gray or Roan / 3yo
Pedigree:
Exaggerator-Mo Wicked

$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.

ENDLESSLY
14
STATS →
ENDLESSLY
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
6: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$707,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-8-1-1
Jockey:
Umberto Rispoli
Trainer:
Michael McCarthy
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Oscar Performance-Dream Fuhrever

Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.

DOMESTIC PRODUCT
15
STATS →
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-0
Career Earnings:
$314,200
Past 5 Races:
1-2-7-1-5
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Practical Joke-Goods and Services

Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.

GRAND MO THE FIRST
16
STATS →
GRAND MO THE FIRST
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-4
Career Earnings:
$214,650
Past 5 Races:
3-3-3-3-1
Jockey:
Emisael Jaramillo
Trainer:
Victor Barboza Jr.
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Uncle Mo-Lilies So Fair

Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..

FIERCENESS
17
STATS →
FIERCENESS
M/L
5-2
Career Record:
5: 3-0-1
Career Earnings:
$1,703,850
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-7-1
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
City of Light-Nonna Mia

Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.

STRONGHOLD
18
STATS →
STRONGHOLD
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-3-0
Career Earnings:
$827,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-2
Jockey:
Antonio Fresu
Trainer:
Phil D'Amato
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Ghostzapper-Spectator

Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.

RESILIENCE
19
STATS →
RESILIENCE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$494,630
Past 5 Races:
1-4-1-3-2
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Meadowsweet

Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.

SOCIETY MAN
20
STATS →
SOCIETY MAN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$195,706
Past 5 Races:
2-1-8-3-7
Jockey:
Frankie Dettori
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Pedigree:
Good Magic-You Cheated

Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.

EPIC RIDE
21
STATS →
EPIC RIDE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-1
Career Earnings:
$253,156
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
John Ennis
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Blame-Pick a Time

Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.

MUGATU
22
STATS →
MUGATU
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
12: 1-1-3
Career Earnings:
$80,570
Past 5 Races:
5-8-3-4-4
Jockey:
Joe Talamo
Trainer:
Jeff Engler
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Pedigree:
Blofeld-Union Way

Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.

DORNOCH
STATS →
1
DORNOCH
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-2-0
Career Earnings:
$552,275
Past 5 Races:
4-1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Puca

Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.

SIERRA LEONE
STATS →
2
SIERRA LEONE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$918,000
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark bay or brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Gun Runner-Heavenly Love

Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.

MYSTIK DAN
STATS →
3
MYSTIK DAN
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$641,360
Past 5 Races:
3-1-5-5-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Goldencents-Ma'am

Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.

CATCHING FREEDOM
STATS →
4
CATCHING FREEDOM
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-1
Career Earnings:
$877,350
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-4-1
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Constitution-Catch My Drift

Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.

CATALYTIC
STATS →
5
CATALYTIC
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$216,825
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Catalina Cruiser-One Show Only

Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.

JUST STEEL
STATS →
6
JUST STEEL
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
11: 2-4-1
Career Earnings:
$724,545
Past 5 Races:
2-7-2-2-1
Jockey:
Keith Asmussen
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Justify-Irish Lights

Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

HONOR MARIE
STATS →
7
HONOR MARIE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$526,175
Past 5 Races:
2-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ben Curtis
Trainer:
Whit Beckman
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Honor Code-Dame Marie

Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.

JUST A TOUCH
STATS →
8
JUST A TOUCH
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$281,700
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Justify-Touching Beauty

Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges

ENCINO
STATS →
9
SCRATCHED
ENCINO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$378,315
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Axel Concepcion
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Nyquist-Glittering Jewel

A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.

T O PASSWORD
STATS →
10
T O PASSWORD
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
2: 2-0-0
Career Earnings:
$163,339
Past 5 Races:
1-1
Jockey:
Kazushi Kimura
Trainer:
Daisuke Takayanagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Copano RIckey-TO Rachel

The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono

FOREVER YOUNG
STATS →
11
FOREVER YOUNG
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
5: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$2,049,451
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Real Steel-Forever Darling

Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.

TRACK PHANTOM
STATS →
12
TRACK PHANTOM
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-2-1
Career Earnings:
$405,000
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
Quality Road-Miss Sunset

Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.

WEST SARATOGA
STATS →
13
WEST SARATOGA
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
10: 2-5-1
Career Earnings:
$460,140
Past 5 Races:
2-3-2-5-1
Jockey:
Jesus Castanon
Trainer:
Larry Demeritte
Color/Age:
Gray or Roan / 3yo
Pedigree:
Exaggerator-Mo Wicked

$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.

ENDLESSLY
STATS →
14
ENDLESSLY
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
6: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$707,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-8-1-1
Jockey:
Umberto Rispoli
Trainer:
Michael McCarthy
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Oscar Performance-Dream Fuhrever

Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.

DOMESTIC PRODUCT
STATS →
15
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-0
Career Earnings:
$314,200
Past 5 Races:
1-2-7-1-5
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Practical Joke-Goods and Services

Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.

GRAND MO THE FIRST
STATS →
16
GRAND MO THE FIRST
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-4
Career Earnings:
$214,650
Past 5 Races:
3-3-3-3-1
Jockey:
Emisael Jaramillo
Trainer:
Victor Barboza Jr.
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Uncle Mo-Lilies So Fair

Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..

FIERCENESS
STATS →
17
FIERCENESS
M/L
5-2
Career Record:
5: 3-0-1
Career Earnings:
$1,703,850
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-7-1
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
City of Light-Nonna Mia

Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.

STRONGHOLD
STATS →
18
STRONGHOLD
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-3-0
Career Earnings:
$827,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-2
Jockey:
Antonio Fresu
Trainer:
Phil D'Amato
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Ghostzapper-Spectator

Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.

RESILIENCE
STATS →
19
RESILIENCE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$494,630
Past 5 Races:
1-4-1-3-2
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Meadowsweet

Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.

SOCIETY MAN
STATS →
20
SOCIETY MAN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$195,706
Past 5 Races:
2-1-8-3-7
Jockey:
Frankie Dettori
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Pedigree:
Good Magic-You Cheated

Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.

EPIC RIDE
STATS →
21
EPIC RIDE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-1
Career Earnings:
$253,156
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
John Ennis
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Blame-Pick a Time

Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.

MUGATU
STATS →
22
MUGATU
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
12: 1-1-3
Career Earnings:
$80,570
Past 5 Races:
5-8-3-4-4
Jockey:
Joe Talamo
Trainer:
Jeff Engler
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Pedigree:
Blofeld-Union Way

Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.

DORNOCH
STATS →
1
DORNOCH
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-2-0
Career Earnings:
$552,275
Past 5 Races:
4-1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Sire:
Good Magic-Puca

Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.

SIERRA LEONE
STATS →
2
SIERRA LEONE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$918,000
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark bay or brown / 3yo
Sire:
Gun Runner-Heavenly Love

Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.

MYSTIK DAN
STATS →
3
MYSTIK DAN
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$641,360
Past 5 Races:
3-1-5-5-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Goldencents-Ma'am

Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.

CATCHING FREEDOM
STATS →
4
CATCHING FREEDOM
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-1
Career Earnings:
$877,350
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-4-1
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Constitution-Catch My Drift

Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.

CATALYTIC
STATS →
5
CATALYTIC
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$216,825
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Catalina Cruiser-One Show Only

Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.

JUST STEEL
STATS →
6
JUST STEEL
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
11: 2-4-1
Career Earnings:
$724,545
Past 5 Races:
2-7-2-2-1
Jockey:
Keith Asmussen
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Justify-Irish Lights

Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

HONOR MARIE
STATS →
7
HONOR MARIE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$526,175
Past 5 Races:
2-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ben Curtis
Trainer:
Whit Beckman
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Honor Code-Dame Marie

Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.

JUST A TOUCH
STATS →
8
JUST A TOUCH
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$281,700
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Justify-Touching Beauty

Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges

ENCINO
STATS →
9
SCRATCHED
ENCINO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$378,315
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Axel Concepcion
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Sire:
Nyquist-Glittering Jewel

A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.

T O PASSWORD
STATS →
10
T O PASSWORD
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
2: 2-0-0
Career Earnings:
$163,339
Past 5 Races:
1-1
Jockey:
Kazushi Kimura
Trainer:
Daisuke Takayanagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Copano RIckey-TO Rachel

The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono

FOREVER YOUNG
STATS →
11
FOREVER YOUNG
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
5: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$2,049,451
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Real Steel-Forever Darling

Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.

TRACK PHANTOM
STATS →
12
TRACK PHANTOM
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-2-1
Career Earnings:
$405,000
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Sire:
Quality Road-Miss Sunset

Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.

WEST SARATOGA
STATS →
13
WEST SARATOGA
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
10: 2-5-1
Career Earnings:
$460,140
Past 5 Races:
2-3-2-5-1
Jockey:
Jesus Castanon
Trainer:
Larry Demeritte
Color/Age:
Gray or Roan / 3yo
Sire:
Exaggerator-Mo Wicked

$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.

ENDLESSLY
STATS →
14
ENDLESSLY
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
6: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$707,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-8-1-1
Jockey:
Umberto Rispoli
Trainer:
Michael McCarthy
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Oscar Performance-Dream Fuhrever

Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.

DOMESTIC PRODUCT
STATS →
15
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-0
Career Earnings:
$314,200
Past 5 Races:
1-2-7-1-5
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Sire:
Practical Joke-Goods and Services

Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.

GRAND MO THE FIRST
STATS →
16
GRAND MO THE FIRST
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-4
Career Earnings:
$214,650
Past 5 Races:
3-3-3-3-1
Jockey:
Emisael Jaramillo
Trainer:
Victor Barboza Jr.
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Sire:
Uncle Mo-Lilies So Fair

Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..

FIERCENESS
STATS →
17
FIERCENESS
M/L
5-2
Career Record:
5: 3-0-1
Career Earnings:
$1,703,850
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-7-1
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Sire:
City of Light-Nonna Mia

Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.

STRONGHOLD
STATS →
18
STRONGHOLD
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-3-0
Career Earnings:
$827,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-2
Jockey:
Antonio Fresu
Trainer:
Phil D'Amato
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Ghostzapper-Spectator

Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.

RESILIENCE
STATS →
19
RESILIENCE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$494,630
Past 5 Races:
1-4-1-3-2
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Into Mischief-Meadowsweet

Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.

SOCIETY MAN
STATS →
20
SOCIETY MAN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$195,706
Past 5 Races:
2-1-8-3-7
Jockey:
Frankie Dettori
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Sire:
Good Magic-You Cheated

Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.

EPIC RIDE
STATS →
21
EPIC RIDE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-1
Career Earnings:
$253,156
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
John Ennis
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Sire:
Blame-Pick a Time

Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.

MUGATU
STATS →
22
MUGATU
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
12: 1-1-3
Career Earnings:
$80,570
Past 5 Races:
5-8-3-4-4
Jockey:
Joe Talamo
Trainer:
Jeff Engler
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Sire:
Blofeld-Union Way

Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.

DORNOCH
STATS →
1
DORNOCH
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-2-0
Career Earnings:
$552,275
Past 5 Races:
4-1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Puca

Full-brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage. Won Aqueduct's Remsen and Gulfstream's Fountain of Youth before a 4th-place finish in Keeneland's Blue Grass.

SIERRA LEONE
STATS →
2
SIERRA LEONE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$918,000
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark bay or brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Gun Runner-Heavenly Love

Top point-earner in the Kentucky Derby qualifying races this year, he won the Risen Star at Fair Grounds and the Blue Grass at Keeneland. A nose short of perfection in 4 starts when runner-up in Aqueduct's Remsen in November. Late-runner will be among the top-2 betting choices.

MYSTIK DAN
STATS →
3
MYSTIK DAN
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$641,360
Past 5 Races:
3-1-5-5-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Goldencents-Ma'am

Arkansas Derby third-place finisher was brilliant on a wet track in his prior start, an 8-length win in Oaklawn's Southwest. Son of 2-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Goldencents. Trainer McPeek has a Belmont Stakes title on his resume.

CATCHING FREEDOM
STATS →
4
CATCHING FREEDOM
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-1
Career Earnings:
$877,350
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-4-1
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Constitution-Catch My Drift

Rallied from 11th and last to win the Louisiana Derby over 1-3/16 miles, just 110 yards shorter than the Kentucky Derby distance. Champion trainer Cox officially won the '21 Derby via disqualification with Mandaloun.

CATALYTIC
STATS →
5
CATALYTIC
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$216,825
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Catalina Cruiser-One Show Only

Lightly raced Florida Derby runner-up has made only 3 starts, but his 13-length defeat vs. Fierceness at Gulfstream got him the necessary points to try the Kentucky Derby. Lone victory came in a 6-1/2 furlong sprint in October at Gulfstream.

JUST STEEL
STATS →
6
JUST STEEL
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
11: 2-4-1
Career Earnings:
$724,545
Past 5 Races:
2-7-2-2-1
Jockey:
Keith Asmussen
Trainer:
D. Wayne Lukas
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Justify-Irish Lights

Runner-up in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones, Southwest and Arkansas Derby brings 88-year-old trainer D. Wayne Lukas back to the Triple Crown - where he's won 14 times - and 24-year-old jockey Keith Asmussen (son of trainer Steve) to his first. Colt is a son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify.

HONOR MARIE
STATS →
7
HONOR MARIE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$526,175
Past 5 Races:
2-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ben Curtis
Trainer:
Whit Beckman
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Honor Code-Dame Marie

Winner of Churchill Downs' Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November, he's since run fifth in the Risen Star Stakes and second in the Louisiana Derby, both at Fair Grounds. First Triple Crown starter for trainer Whit Beckman, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher & Chad Brown.

JUST A TOUCH
STATS →
8
JUST A TOUCH
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
3: 1-2-0
Career Earnings:
$281,700
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Justify-Touching Beauty

Gotham and Blue Grass runner-up seeks his first stakes victory. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify, who also was a late debut runner in his sophomore year before exploding onto the scene. Trainer Cox has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont to date. PHOTO: Fair Grounds/Hodges

ENCINO
STATS →
9
SCRATCHED
ENCINO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
4: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$378,315
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-2
Jockey:
Axel Concepcion
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Nyquist-Glittering Jewel

A neck away from perfection, he's won the John Battaglia Memorial on synthetic at Turfway and Keeneland's Lexington on dirt in his last 2 starts. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist. Trainer Cox has a Derby and Belmont win to his credit.

T O PASSWORD
STATS →
10
T O PASSWORD
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
2: 2-0-0
Career Earnings:
$163,339
Past 5 Races:
1-1
Jockey:
Kazushi Kimura
Trainer:
Daisuke Takayanagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Copano RIckey-TO Rachel

The most inexperienced Triple Crown prospect in this year's crop hails from Japan and won that nation's Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase by winning the Fukuryu Stakes at Nakayama. Has won both races at 1-1/8 miles distances on dirt. Japan seeks its first American Triple Crown race glory. PHOTO: Yuki Shimono

FOREVER YOUNG
STATS →
11
FOREVER YOUNG
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
5: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$2,049,451
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Real Steel-Forever Darling

Japanese-based globetrotter won the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby en route to America. Fourth horse ever to contest a May Derby edition with $2 million already earned. Japan seeks its first Triple Crown race winner in the US.

TRACK PHANTOM
STATS →
12
TRACK PHANTOM
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-2-1
Career Earnings:
$405,000
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
Quality Road-Miss Sunset

Veteran of New Orleans' Fair Grounds, he won the Gun Runner and Lecomte Stakes before a second in the Risen Star and fourth in the Louisiana Derby. Trainer Steve Asmussen's all-time record wins total of more than 10,000 includes Preakness and Belmont wins, but no Kentucky Derby.

WEST SARATOGA
STATS →
13
WEST SARATOGA
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
10: 2-5-1
Career Earnings:
$460,140
Past 5 Races:
2-3-2-5-1
Jockey:
Jesus Castanon
Trainer:
Larry Demeritte
Color/Age:
Gray or Roan / 3yo
Pedigree:
Exaggerator-Mo Wicked

$11K bargain buy was Jeff Ruby runner-up and 2-time stakes-placed on dirt this winter at Tampa Bay Downs. Won Iroquois at Churchill Downs at age 2. Son of '16 Derby runner-up and Preakness winner Exaggerator. Trainer Demeritte, Bahamas native, bids first Triple Crown while battling cancer.

ENDLESSLY
STATS →
14
ENDLESSLY
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
6: 5-0-0
Career Earnings:
$707,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-8-1-1
Jockey:
Umberto Rispoli
Trainer:
Michael McCarthy
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Oscar Performance-Dream Fuhrever

Top synthetic surface and turf performer has won the El Camino Real Derby and Jeff Ruby in recent starts. Earned automatic Preakness berth by winning the El Camino Real Derby at Pimlico sister-track Golden Gate Fields in February, a path successful from '21 Preakness champ Rombauer for same trainer. Has yet to race on dirt.

DOMESTIC PRODUCT
STATS →
15
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-0
Career Earnings:
$314,200
Past 5 Races:
1-2-7-1-5
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz Jr.
Trainer:
Chad Brown
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Practical Joke-Goods and Services

Tampa Bay Derby winner also outfinished Kentucky Derby favorite Fierceness when running second in the Holy Bull at Gulfstream. Two-time Preakness-winning trainer Brown seeks his first Derby, Belmont titles and also has Sierra Leone in this class.

GRAND MO THE FIRST
STATS →
16
GRAND MO THE FIRST
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-4
Career Earnings:
$214,650
Past 5 Races:
3-3-3-3-1
Jockey:
Emisael Jaramillo
Trainer:
Victor Barboza Jr.
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown / 3yo
Pedigree:
Uncle Mo-Lilies So Fair

Third-place finisher in the Florida Derby, Tampa Bay Derby, Swale and Zuma Beach, racing multiple distances and surfaces on both coasts. Both career wins came on Gulfstream's synthetic surface in sprint races. Sire Uncle Mo sired '22 Belmont winner Mo Donegal and '16 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Nyquist..

FIERCENESS
STATS →
17
FIERCENESS
M/L
5-2
Career Record:
5: 3-0-1
Career Earnings:
$1,703,850
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-7-1
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Bay/3yo
Pedigree:
City of Light-Nonna Mia

Champion 2-Year-Old and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner of 2023, he announced likely Kentucky Derby favoritism with a record 13-length victory margin in the Florida Derby. Owner-trainer deflated on Derby morning last year when favorite Forte forced to scratch with injury. Pletcher 2-time Derby winner.

STRONGHOLD
STATS →
18
STRONGHOLD
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 3-3-0
Career Earnings:
$827,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-2
Jockey:
Antonio Fresu
Trainer:
Phil D'Amato
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Ghostzapper-Spectator

Santa Anita Derby & Sunland Park Derby winner is the first Triple Crown starter for his trainer and jockey. Son of 2004 Horse of the Year Ghostzapper, who won the Breeders' Cup Classic that year.

RESILIENCE
STATS →
19
RESILIENCE
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$494,630
Past 5 Races:
1-4-1-3-2
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Meadowsweet

Earned his way to the Triple Crown series winning Aqueduct's Wood Memorial for his first stakes victory. That followed his fourth-place effort in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has won the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, but seeks his first Preakness.

SOCIETY MAN
STATS →
20
SOCIETY MAN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$195,706
Past 5 Races:
2-1-8-3-7
Jockey:
Frankie Dettori
Trainer:
Danny Gargan
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Pedigree:
Good Magic-You Cheated

Perhaps the most unlikely Triple Crown participant of 2024, running second in Aqueduct's Wood Memorial at 106-1 odds to earn the chance to compete. Defeated 15 lengths in the Withers in his only prior stakes race. Son of Good Magic, sire of '23 Kentucky Derby winner and Preakness third-place finisher Mage.

EPIC RIDE
STATS →
21
EPIC RIDE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-2-1
Career Earnings:
$253,156
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
John Ennis
Color/Age:
Bay / 3yo
Pedigree:
Blame-Pick a Time

Blue Grass Stakes third-place finisher was runner-up in Turfway's John Battaglia Memorial. First Triple Crown foray for trainer John Ennis. Son of 2010 Breeders' Cup Classic winner Blame, who won that year at Churchill and earlier in the year won Pimlico's Schaefer on the Preakness undercard.

MUGATU
STATS →
22
MUGATU
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
12: 1-1-3
Career Earnings:
$80,570
Past 5 Races:
5-8-3-4-4
Jockey:
Joe Talamo
Trainer:
Jeff Engler
Color/Age:
Chestnut / 3yo
Pedigree:
Blofeld-Union Way

Blue Grass Stakes fifth-place finisher was also fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial. His lone win came in a Gulfstream maiden race in November. Last on the also-eligible list for horses aimed at Derby 150.

kentucky derby

EXPERT BEST BETS

MICHELLE YU
KENTUCKY DERBY

SIERRA LEONE
JUST A TOUCH
STRONGHOLD
JUST STEEL

KALI FRANCOIS
KENTUCKY DERBY

FIERCENESS
SIERRA LEONE
JUST A TOUCH
CATCHING FREEDOM

ZOE CADMAN
KENTUCKY DERBY

SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
DOMESTIC PRODUCT
FOREVER YOUNG

PETER LURIE
KENTUCKY DERBY

FIERCENESS
CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
FOREVER YOUNG

MILLIE BALL
KENTUCKY DERBY

FIERCENESS
FOREVER YOUNG
SIERRA LEONE
CATCHING FREEDOM

BRIAN SPENCER
KENTUCKY DERBY

SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
FOREVER YOUNG
CATCHING FREEDOM

SAMANTHA PERRY
KENTUCKY DERBY

SIERRA LEONE
HONOR MARIE
JUST A TOUCH
TRACK PHANTOM

JON WHITE
KENTUCKY DERBY

FOREVER YOUNG
FIERCENESS
SIERRA LEONE
CATCHING FREEDOM

BRIAN NADEAU
KENTUCKY DERBY

JUST A TOUCH
SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
CATCHING FREEDOM

KEITH FEUSTLE
KENTUCKY DERBY

SIERRA LEONE
JUST STEEL
JUST A TOUCH
CATCHING FREEDOM

RON NICOLETTI
KENTUCKY DERBY

FIERCENESS
RESILIENCE
SIERRA LEONE
FOREVER YOUNG

SCOTT SHAPIRO
KENTUCKY DERBY

JUST A TOUCH
SIERRA LEONE
FIERCENESS
CATCHING FREEDOM

TOM QUIGLEY
KENTUCKY DERBY

JUST A TOUCH
SIERRA LEONE
RESILIENCE
CATALYTIC

JEREMY PLONK
KENTUCKY DERBY

FIERCENESS
RESILIENCE
SIERRA LEONE
DOMESTIC PRODUCT

JEFF SIEGEL
KENTUCKY DERBY

FIERCENESS
SIERRA LEONE
STRONGHOLD
FOREVER YOUNG

EDDIE OLCZYK
KENTUCKY DERBY

CATCHING FREEDOM
SIERRA LEONE
MYSTIK DAN
FIERCENESS

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the machine

all races

KENTUCKY OAKS DAY

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE picks

powered by betmix

The 1/ST BET 'Machine' analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors for each race to create an exclusive handicapping outcome driven by big data.

POST
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
FAIR ODDS

KENTUCKY OAKS DAY FRIDAY, MAY 5

RACE 1 // MAIDEN
10:30AM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
12
FOREVER AFTER ALL
24%
40%
52%
7
K'ANTHEIA
19%
33%
46%
6
DESTINE TO RACE
14%
25%
34%
9
I HAD THAT ONE TOO
10%
25%
35%
RACE 2 // ALLOWANCE
11:00AM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
6
GROVE
24%
36%
40%
8
GOODBYE KYLE
16%
24%
34%
11
VAHVA
12%
26%
34%
4
FOGO ISLAND
10%
26%
34%
RACE 3 // ALLOWANCE
11:30AM ET // $134K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
18
CREATIVE MINISTER
18%
31%
42%
13
PRICE TALK
16%
29%
37%
17
BUTTON BOY
10%
17%
22%
6
POINT ME BY
6%
14%
25%
RACE 4 // ALLOWANCE
12:05PM ET // $134K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
4
NOT SO CLOSE
18%
31%
42%
16
MOUFFY
18%
30%
41%
9
JUMP INTO THE FIRE
14%
16%
25%
7
HEARTYCONSTITUTION
9%
18%
24%
RACE 5 // G2 ALYSHEBA
12:43PM ET // $600K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
4
WEST WILL POWER
27%
47%
68%
1
ART COLLECTOR
22%
46%
61%
2
LAST SAMURAI
14%
30%
45%
3
RICH STRIKE
14%
29%
45%
RACE 6 // G3 MODESTY
1:26PM ET // $300K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
6
McKULICK
29%
45%
56%
8
NEW YEAR'S EVE
15%
32%
46%
7
SHANTISARA
14%
34%
52%
4
SPARKLE BLUE
11%
20%
34%
RACE 7 // G2 EIGHT BELLES
2:09PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
9
MUNNY'S GOLD
28%
51%
61%
8
ACCEDE
19%
31%
51%
4
EFFORTLESSLYELGANT
15%
22%
34%
6
RED CARPET BEAUTY
12%
22%
28%
RACE 8 // UNBRIDLED SIDNEY
3:03PM ET // $300K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
11
CARAVEL
26%
379%
51%
1
BAY STORM
17%
27%
39%
8
OEUVRE
13%
31%
41%
9
LITTLE JEWEL
8%
21%
28%
RACE 9 // G1 LA TROIENNE
4:04PM ET // $750K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
SOCIETY
24%
51%
62%
1
PLAYED HARD
15%
28%
40%
4
SECRET OATH
14%
30%
45%
2
SEARCH RESULTS
10%
16%
28%
RACE 10 // G2 EDGEWOOD
4:51PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
LIGURIA
23%
36%
51%
5
PRELIMINARY
19%
34%
49%
8
HEAVENLY SUNDAY
13%
22%
32%
3
CAIRO CONSORT
7%
17%
34%
RACE 11 // G1 KENTUCKY OAKS
5:51PM ET // $1.25M
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
WET PAINT
29%
47%
55%
8
PROMISEHER AMERICA
15%
29%
37%
16
JULIA SHINING
14%
26%
38%
6
BOTANICAL
8%
12%
22%
RACE 12 // ALLOWANCE
6:25PM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
6
GUNS N' GRACES
21%
36%
51%
1
CURL GIRL
17%
35%
50%
7
FOREVER DIXIE
10%
20%
27%
5
HAYUNEVANO
9%
20%
33%
RACE 13 // MAIDEN
7:00PM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
14
AMERICAN RETRO
18%
35%
43%
1
KID'S LAST LAUGH
13%
25%
29%
8
NO GUILT
10%
13%
19%
7
EXCELLENT QUESTION
8%
17%
24%

the machine

all races

KENTUCKY DERBY DAY

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE picks

powered by betmix

The 1/ST BET 'Machine' analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors for each race to create an exclusive handicapping outcome driven by big data.

POST
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
FAIR ODDS

KENTUCKY DERBY DAY saturDAY, MAY 6

RACE 1 // ALLOWANCE
10:30AM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
1
EXTRA ANEJO
31%
43%
55%
2
OLAZABAL
18%
37%
52%
7
BACKSIDE BUZZ
11%
29%
45%
3
FEDERAL JUDGE
11%
24%
39%
RACE 2 // MAIDEN
11:01AM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
8
QUALITY CHIC
25%
41%
53%
1
CAPE TRAFALGAR
20%
33%
48%
7
JUST A PHOTO
15%
26%
35%
6
QUATERNION
10%
26%
37%
RACE 3 // ALLOWANCE
11:31AM ET // $134K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
1
BRIGHT FUTURE
19%
34%
46%
5
KING OTTOMAN
19%
33%
44%
12
SUPER DESIGN
14%
18%
28%
11
BRIGADIER GENERAL
10%
19%
26%
RACE 4 // G1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF
12:04PM ET // $750K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
GOODNIGHT OLIVE
31%
52%
67%
3
WICKED HALO
21%
43%
60%
5
MATAREYA
15%
31%
54%
1
HOT AND SULTRY
13%
32%
51%
RACE 5 // G2 DISTAFF TURF MILE
12:36PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
FLUFFY SOCKS
28%
52%
65%
5
SPENDARELLA
18%
26%
40%
4
WAKANAKA
16%
35%
52%
2
SPEAK OF THE DEVIL
8%
19%
40%
RACE 6 // KNICKS GO
1:14PM ET // $175K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
MASQUEPARADE
23%
41%
52%
6
ZOZOS
17%
32%
45%
11
KUPUNA
14%
24%
36%
10
NOBLE DRAMA
10%
19%
25%
RACE 7 // G2 TURF SPRINT
1:56PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
10
ARREST ME RED
23%
35%
48%
4
BIG INVASION
17%
27%
36%
11
MOTORIOUS
12%
22%
34%
7
NOTHING BETTER
8%
21%
29%
RACE 8 // G2 PAT MILE
2:46PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
5
ECHO AGAIN
19%
37%
53%
10
CURLY JACK
15%
22%
27%
6
FROSTED DEPARTURE
11%
23%
32%
1
KANGAROO COURT
10%
20%
24%
RACE 9 // G2 AMERICAN TURF
3:40PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
15
WADSWORTH
21%
31%
42%
1
MAJOR DUDE
18%
29%
40%
11
CARL SPACKLER
12%
18%
25%
8
MO STASH
6%
20%
25%
RACE 10 // G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS
4:31PM ET // $750K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
cody's wish
25%
44%
62%
9
sir alfred james
14%
27%
31%
5
get her number
10%
27%
42%
10
endorsed
10%
14%
22%
RACE 11 // G1 TURF CLASSIC
5:27PM ET // $1M
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
8
SANTIN
22%
37%
50%
7
HONG KONG HARRY
16%
35%
51%
6
EARLS ROCK
13%
25%
35%
3
WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST
11%
25%
35%
RACE 12 // G1 KENTUCKY DERBY
6:57PM ET // $3M
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
15
FORTE
24%
29%
34%
5
TAPIT TRICE
11%
16%
27%
6
KINGSBARNS
10%
22%
29%
10
PRACTICAL MOVE
8%
15%
26%
RACE 13 // ALLOWANCE
7:55PM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
EQUIVOQUE
21%
36%
51%
6
PROMISE ME A RIDE
17%
35%
50%
7
ACT A FOOL
10%
20%
27%
5
B MINOR
9%
20%
33%
RACE 14 // MAIDEN
8:30PM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS
18%
35%
43%
9
MULLIKIN
13%
25%
29%
1
MACHO VILLA
10%
13%
19%
5
GOLDEN SOMBRERO
8%
17%
24%

RACE 11

MILLIE BALL

KENTUCKY OAKS

friday // may3

G1 - $1,500,000

SCENE SETTER: Friday’s Kentucky Oaks offers a first-ever matchup between the stars of the 3-year-old filly division: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner JUST F Y I, Fair Grounds Oaks heroine TARIFA and Fantasy Stakes winner THORPEDO ANNA. They each have just a single loss from 13 combined starts entering their epic, first-time clash. Add into the mix LESLIE’S ROSE, upset winner over JUST F Y I in the Ashland Stakes, and herself defeated just once in 4 starts. It’s been since Silverbulletday in 1998-’99 that a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner added the Kentucky Oaks the following spring, providing JUST F Y I not only a historical hurdle, but also a potential place in history.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

The Top-5 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factors for the Kentucky Oaks are Avg. Speed Last 3, Horses Beaten %, Last Turn Time, Best Speed Fast Track and Speed Last Race.

workout report // xbtv:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $40 Exacta: TARIFA over JUST FYI
  • $15 Exacta Part-Wheel: TARIFA over OUR PRETTY WOMAN, POWER SQUEEZE, LESLIE'S ROSE, THORPEDO ANNA ($60)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. TARIFA
2. JUST F Y I
3. OUR PRETTY WOMAN
4. POWER SQUEEZE

KNOW THIS

Derby Dozen Have Delivered
Each of the last 12 Kentucky Derby post-time favorites have finished in the superfecta (11 in the trifecta, 9 in the exacta, 6 in the winner’s circle). The last misfire? Dialed In, 8th in 2011.

Last Couple from the Clouds
Mage and Rich Strike have rallied from far back to win the past 2 Derby editions. Mage came from 16th (13-1/4 lengths behind), while Rich Strike was even farther back in 18th (17-1/4 lengths behind). They’re the deepest closers to win since Orb overcame 18-3/4 lengths in 2013.

Florida Derby Did It Again
Last year Mage became the 25th Florida Derby alumnus to win the Kentucky Derby, most of any prep. The Gulfstream springboard now is 2 wins ahead of Keeneland’s Blue Grass (23) on the all-time list. Those 2 races have produced this year’s favorites, Fierceness and Sierra Leone.

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RACE 12

EDDIE OLCZYK

KENTUCKY DERBY

saturday // may4

G1 - $5,000,000

SCENE SETTER: The Kentucky Derby Class of 2024 established its clear leader when Fierceness dominated the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in December en route to being named Champion 2-Year-Old. And while he whistled into Louisville on the heels of a record-setting 13-1/2 length winning margin in the Florida Derby, it’s his 2 sobering defeats in 5 career starts that provide optimism to the opposition. That line of challengers is led by Sierra Leone, a nose away from perfection in 4 starts, the last 3 of which were at 1-1/8 miles in distance, a Derby rarity in lead-up stamina. Japan sends not 1 unbeaten colt, but 2, in Forever Young and T O Password. And after $163 and $32 longshot winners the past few first Saturdays in May, hope springs eternal for those trying to find the next price.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

Among the Top-10 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factors for the Kentucky Derby are Avg. Speed Last 3, Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed and Speed Last Race.

workout report // xbtv:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $25 Win and Place: CATCHING FREEDOM ($50)
  • $10 Exacta Part-Wheel: CATCHING FREEDOM over SIERRA LEONE, MYSTIK DAN, FIERCENESS ($30)
  • $10 Exacta Box: CATCHING FREEDOM and FIERCENESS ($20)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. CATCHING FREEDOM
2. SIERRA LEONE
3. MYSTIK DAN
4. FIERCENESS

DERBY HISTORY: tHE LAST...

Jockey to win back-to-back: Victor Espinoza (2014 California Chrome, 2015 American Pharoah) 

Trainer to win back-to-back: Bob Baffert (1997 Silver Charm, 1998 Real Quiet) 

Jockey to win Derby debut: Sonny Leon (2022 Rich Strike) 

Trainer to win Derby debut: Eric Reed (2022 Rich Strike)

Jockey to win Oaks & Derby same year: Calvin Borel (2009 Rachel Alexandra and Mine That Bird); note John Velazquez won the ’21 Oaks aboard Malathaat, but his Derby-winning mount Medina Spirit was later disqualified.

Winner to close from more than 10 lengths back: Mage (2023); previously Rich Strike (2022); previously Orb (2013)

KNOW THIS

Heavier Campaigns Winning Out
The last 7 winners of the Kentucky Derby all had 3 or 4 preps during that current year. Nyquist (2016) was the last 2-prep success story in Louisville.

Building on a Title
The reigning 2-Year-Old Champion owns a 21-for-80 record in the Kentucky Derby all-time. Fierceness will try to become the first to win the roses since Nyquist in 2016.

Front-Running Fiends
Only 5 horses have won the Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire over the past 50 years: Bold Forbes (1976), Spend a Buck (1985), Winning Colors (1988), War Emblem (2002) and Authentic (2020).

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RACE 12

jeff siegel

kentucky derby

JEFF'S TAKE

G1 - $5,000,000

SCENE SETTER: The Kentucky Derby pace often tells the tale of how the race was won. Go fast early, find winners rallying from the clouds like Mage and Rich Strike the past two years. Go slow early, and the pacesetters may even hold for a 1-2-3 finish like American Pharoah’s 2015 run to the roses over Firing Line and Dortmund. Under peak track conditions, the time for the opening half-mile of the Kentucky Derby teeters around the 46-second mark. Early paces faster than 46 seconds more often than not overcook the front-runners and are too fast. Those 46 seconds or over make the deep closers’ job much more difficult to make up ground. How fast might this year’s pace be? Of all the pertinent American prep races, only Keeneland’s Blue Grass and the Santa Anita Derby were contested under a fast pace in the 46-second range.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

Among the Top-10 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factors for the Kentucky Derby are Trainer 2-Year Win %, Jockey 1-Year Win % and Horses Beaten %.

workout report // XBTV:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $30 Win: FIERCENESS ($30)
  • $5 Exacta Box: FIERCENESS, SIERRA LEONE ($10)
  • $5 Exacta Box: FIERCENESS, SIERRA LEONE, STRONGHOLD, FOREVER YOUNG ($60)

TOP 4 picks

1. FIERCENESS
2. SIERRA LEONE
3. STRONGHOLD
4. FOREVER YOUNG

THE LAST...

Arkansas Derby alum to win: Country House (2019) 

Blue Grass alum to win: Street Sense (2007) 

Trainer to win Oaks & Derby same year: Ben Jones (1952) with Real Delight & Hill Gail

Florida Derby alum to win: Mage (2023)

Louisiana Derby alum to win: Mandaloun (2021) 

Female trainer to compete: Victoria Oliver (2021 Hidden Stash, 13th by DQ)

Santa Anita Derby alum to win: Authentic (2020) 

Jeff Ruby alum to win: Rich Strike (2022) 

Wood Memorial alum to win: Funny Cide (2003)

KNOW THIS

Stick Around for the Finish
The last 5 Derbies have been decided by 5-1/4 combined lengths. The last Kentucky Derby decided by 3 lengths or more was Mine That Bird’s 2009 blowout by 6-3/4 lengths.

Hundred-Dollar Club
Five Kentucky Derby winners have returned $100-plus for a $2 win bet. Donerail (1913) paid $184.90; Rich Strike (2022) paid $163.60; Country House (2019) paid $132.40; Mine That Bird (2009) paid $103.20; and Giacomo (2005) paid $102.60.

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RACE 12

JEREMY PLONK

kentucky derby

PLONK'S PLAY

G1 - $5,000,000

SCENE SETTER: The path to the Kentucky Derby has changed over a century and a half to be sure. But even modern preparation contours to meet new schedules and new styles of training. Even into the early 2000s, races like the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Tampa Bay Derby and Jeff Ruby were midseason destinations that funneled Derby hopefuls into the big four final preps: the Blue Grass, Wood Memorial, Santa Anita Derby and Arkansas Derby. With today’s horsemen desiring more time between starts, racetracks altering their schedules to get into the major prep mix, and international race qualifiers added to build the Derby brand worldwide, we have a much more robust matchup than just a clash of the traditional big four preps. Horses from 11 different last-race preps are expected. The Florida Derby leads by spring-boarding 25 Kentucky Derby winners all-time.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

Among the Top-10 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factorsfor the Kentucky Derby are Last Finish Position, Average Off-Track Earnings and Average of Last 3 E2 (Early) Pace.

workout report // XBTV:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$102 wagering strategy:

  • $1 Superfecta: FIERCENESS with RESILIENCE, DOMESTIC PRODUCT, JUST STEEL, HONOR MARIE, ENDLESSLY, MYSTIK DAN with SIERRA LEONE with ALL ($102)

TOP 4 picks

1. FIERCENESS
2. RESILIENCE
3. SIERRA LEONE
4. DOMESTIC PRODUCT

STATS & TRENDS

DERBY FAVORITES (LAST 6 YEARS)
FAVORITES WINS BY DECADE

KNOW THIS

Momentum Builds from Japan
This will be the third straight year with Japanese interests in the starting gate. To date, runners raced in Japan are 6: 0-0-0 in the Kentucky Derby. Master Fencer (2019) and Derma Sotogake (2023) fared best when 6th in their respective events.

20th Anniversary: Smarty Jones
One of the most popular Kentucky Derby and Preakness winners of the modern era celebrates an anniversary this year with the rags to riches “Philadelphia Flyer” Smarty Jones. The Arkansas Derby winner earned a $5 million bonus paid by Oaklawn Park and graced the cover of Sports Illustrated, whose headline read “Why Everyone Loves Smarty Jones.” The 23-year-old currently resides in his native Pennsylvania.

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kentucky derby

THE LAST 25 YEARS

FACT SHEET

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS

WIN ODDS
Average
17.70-to-1
--
High
80.80
Rich Strike '22
Low
2.30
Fuscaichi Pegasus '20; Nyquist '16
Notable: 5 straight winners 8-1 odds or higher have followed 6 favorites from 2013-’18.
PLACE ODDS
Average
17.85-to-1
--
High
71.60
Closing Argument '05
Low
0.70
Tiz the Law '20
Notable: 6 of the last 9 official runners-up have been horses with single-digit odds.
SHOW ODDS
Average
11.85-to-1
--
High
46.50
Mr. Big News '20
Low
2.70
Angel of Empire '23
Notable: 5 of the last 6 official third-place finishers have been 7-1 odds or less.

exotics payoffs

EXACTA ($2 PAYOFFS)
Average
$1,072.44
--
High
$9,814.80
Giacomo-Closing Argument '05
Low
$30.60
Nyquist-Exaggerator '16
Notable: 6 times since 2001 the Derby exacta has paid $1,200 or more.
TRIFECTA ($2 PAYOFFS)
Average
$13,045.51
--
High
$133,134.80
Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex '05
Low
$173.40
Nyquist-Exaggerator-Gun Runner '16
Notable: The Derby trifecta has paid $1,000 or more in 20 of the 29 years offered.
SUPERFECTA ($1 PAYOFFS)
Average
$87,913.46
--
High
$864,253.50
Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex-Don't Get Mad '05
Low
$542.10
Nyquist-Exaggerator-Gun Runner-Mohaymen '16
Notable: The Derby superfecta has paid $10,000 or more in 18 of the 28 years offered.

'23 derby handle totals

IN MILLIONS EXCEPT Hi-5

'23 kentucky derby replay

  • Mage
  • Two Phil's
  • Angel Of Empire
  • Disarm
  • Hit Show
'23 PAYOUTS (W-P-S MAGE)
$2 Win: $32.42
$2 Place: $14.58
$2 Show: $9.08
$2 Exacta: $330.44
$1 Trifecta: $982.36
$1 Superfecta: $15,643.65
$2 Hi-5: $389,846.18
$2 Double: $116.04
$.50 Pick 3: $40.63
$.50 Pick 4: $1,318.35
$.50 Pick 5: $17,538.09
$.20 Pick 6: $1,094,232.12

'24 ky derby past performances