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kentucky derby

may6//2023

churchill downs

louisville, ky

kentucky derby wager guide

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kentucky OAKS & derby

NEED-TO-KNOW

HOST SITE:
CHURCHILL DOWNS // LOUISVILLE, KY
RACE DATE:
KY OAKS: FRIDAY, MAY 5, 2023
KY DERBY: SATURDAY, MAY 6, 2023
POST POSITION DRAW:
MONDAY, MAY 1, 2023 (2 - 3PM ET)
FIRST RACE POST TIME:
10:30AM ET - FRIDAY, MAY 5
10:30AM ET - SATURDAY, MAY 6
WATCH FREE AND WAGER:
ALL RACES ON 1/ST BET APP // XPRESSBET.COM
TELEVISION:
1:00 - 6:00PM ET USA & PEACOCK // FRIDAY
12:00 - 7:30PM ET NBC & PEACOCK // SATURDAY
WAGERING NOTES:
ADVANCED WAGERING // FRIDAY
KENTUCKY OAKS TOURNAMENT // FRIDAY // XPRESSBET.COM
KENTUCKY DERBY TOURNAMENT // SATURDAY // XPRESSBET.COM

KENTUCKY DERBY sTAKES lineup (ALL TIMES EST)

G1 KENTUCKY DERBY
$3M
RACE 12
6:57PM
1 1/4 MI
G1 TURF CLASSIC
$1M
RACE 11
5:27PM
1 1/8 MI (T)
G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS
$750K
RACE 10
4:31PM
7 FUR
G1 AMERICAN TURF
$500K
RACE 9
3:40PM
1 1/16 MI (T)
G2 PAT DAY MILE
$500K
RACE 8
2:46PM
1 MI
G2 TURF SPRINT
$500K
RACE 7
1:56PM
5 1/2 FUR (T)
G2 KNICKS GO OVERNIGHT
$175K
RACE 6
1:14PM
1 MI
G2 DISTAFF TURF MILE
$500K
RACE 5
12:36PM
1 MI (T)
G1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF
$750K
RACE 4
12:04PM
7 FUR

wager guide update schedule

TUESDAY, MAY 2
EXPERT UPDATED PICKS
WEDNESDAY, MAY 3
1/ST BET A.I. DERBY DAY PROJECTIONS // BETMIX PPS // JEFF SIEGEL PREVIEW VIDEO // JEREMY PLONK PREVIEW VIDEO
THURSDAY, MAY 4
1/ST BET A.I. OAKS DAY PROJECTIONS // WORKOUT UPDATES // SCRATCH UPDATES // EXPERT PICKS UPDATES DUE TO SCRATCHES
FRIDAY, MAY 5
EDDIE OLCZYK PICKS // FIRST CALL PODCAST | JEFF SIEGEL & JEREMY PLONK

pegasus world cup

post positions

1
TAIBA
(8-1)
Owner:
Zedan Racing
Trainer:
Bob Baffert
Jockey:
Mike Smith
2
LIFE IS GOOD
(6-1)
Owner:
Winstar Farm
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz Jr.
3
HAPPY SAVER
(30-1)
Owner:
Wertheimer Et Frere
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Jockey:
John Velazquez
4
FLIGHTLINE
(3-5)
Owner:
Hronis Racing
Trainer:
John Sadler
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
5
HOT ROD CHARLIE
(15-1)
Owner:
Roadrunner Racing
Trainer:
Doug O'Neill
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffallone
6
EPICENTER
(5-1)
Owner:
Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
7
OLYMPIAD
(10-1)
Owner:
Grandview Equine
Trainer:
William Mott
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
8
RICH STRIKE
(20-1)
Owner:
Red Tr-Racing
Trainer:
Eric Reed
Jockey:
Sonny Leon

meet the

KENTUCKY DERBY

contenders

HIT SHOW
1
STATS →
HIT SHOW
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$404,375
Past 5 Races:
2-1-1-4-1
Jockey:
Manny Franco
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Candy Ride-Actress

Runaway Withers winner was expected to repeat in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct's same distance, but was a nose short as the 8-5 favorite. The Wood hasn't produced the Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003, but did springboard last year's Preakness winner Early Voting and Belmont winner Mo Donegal.

VERIFYING
2
STATS →
VERIFYING
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
6: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$489,900
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1-6-2
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Justify-Diva Delite

Blue Grass Stakes runner-up by a neck could be part of the early pace in the Triple Crown series. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify has yet to win a stakes in 4 attempts. Could join Forte and Blazing Sevens as the only '22 Breeders' Cup Juvenile alumni in this year's Derby field.

TWO PHIL'S
3
STATS →
TWO PHIL'S
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
8: 4-1-1
Career Earnings:
$683,450
Past 5 Races:
1-3-2-1-7
Jockey:
Jareth Loveberry
Trainer:
Larry Rivelli
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Hard Spun-Mia Torri

Graded stakes winner at ages 2 and 3, he comes off his signature victory in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway. He's won on dirt and the Tapeta synthetic surface. First Triple Crown appearance for Midwest-based jockey and trainer.

CONFIDENCE GAME
4
STATS →
CONFIDENCE GAME
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-1-2
Career Earnings:
$785,525
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-2-5
Jockey:
James Graham
Trainer:
Keith Desormeaux
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Candy Ride-Eblouissante

Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes winner has not competed since February 25, a 10-week layoff that's never been successful in winning the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Desormeaux won the 2016 Preakness with Exaggerator, that year's Derby runner-up. His mother (dam) is half-sister to the legendary champion Zenyatta.

TAPIT TRICE
5
STATS →
TAPIT TRICE
M/L
5-1
Career Record:
5: 4-0-1
Career Earnings:
$883,650
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-3
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Tapit-Danzatrice

Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes winner has won 4 straight races with a strong-finishing style. The $1.3 million yearling purchase is by far the most expensive horse in this year's Derby field. Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) remains the only Derby winner to sell for 7 figures.

KINGSBARNS
6
STATS →
KINGSBARNS
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
3: 3-0-0
Career Earnings:
$657,300
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Uncle Mo-Lady Tapit

Only unbeaten runner heading into this year's Kentucky Derby, he made the class rise with success in the Louisiana Derby to get here. Wire-to-wire winner that day of America's longest Triple Crown prep race at 1-3/16 miles (Preakness distance). Regret, Big Brown & Justify won the Derby as 3-3 unbeatens.

REINCARNATE
7
STATS →
REINCARNATE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-3-2
Career Earnings:
$345,650
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Allanah

Winner of January's Sham Stakes while with trainer Bob Baffert, but transferred to Yakteen barn due to Baffert's 2-year Kentucky Derby suspension. Subsquently third in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Sire Good Magic also has Mage and Blazing Sevens in potential Derby lineup.

MAGE
8
STATS →
MAGE
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
3: 1-1-0
Career Earnings:
$247,200
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1
Jockey:
Javier Castellano
Trainer:
Gustavo Delgado
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Puca

Impressive January 28 debut winner at Gulfstream Park has taken the fast track to the Derby with only 3 starts. Finished fourth in the Fountan of Youth and second in the Florida Derby, cutting nearly 6 lengths of his margin vs. Forte in his last start. Grandson of Preakness winner Curlin and Derby winner Big Brown.

SKINNER
9
STATS →
SCRATCHED
SKINNER
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 1-0-3
Career Earnings:
$216,300
Past 5 Races:
3-3-1-6-3
Jockey:
Juan Hernandez
Trainer:
John Shirreffs
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Curlin-Winding Way

Late-running Santa Anita Derby third-place finish is from the same trainer who upset the 2005 Kentucky Derby with 50-1 Giacomo. Connections change jockeys from Victor Espinoza to Juan Hernandez, looking for a better style fit for this closer. Sire Curlin won the 2007 Preakness and was third in the Kentucky Derby.

PRACTICAL MOVE
10
STATS →
SCRATCHED
PRACTICAL MOVE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
7: 4-1-2
Career Earnings:
$884,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-3-1
Jockey:
Ramon Vazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Practical Joke-Ack Naughty

Scored a heart-pounding win in a 3-way photo in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby to sweep California's top 2 spring races, following up on March's San Felipe stylish victory. Running style keeps him in close contact to the leaders under Triple Crown rookie rider Vazquez.

DISARM
11
STATS →
DISARM
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
4: 1-2-1
Career Earnings:
$327,850
Past 5 Races:
3-2-2-1-3
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Gun Runner-Easy Tap

Earned Derby qualifying points in final race of prep series, finishing third in the Lexington to propel him into the field. Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby has just a 7-furlong sprint win at Saratoga in his win column. Trainer Asmussen has more wins than any in North American history, including Preakness & Belmont scores, but no Derby wins to date.

JACE'S ROAD
12
STATS →
JACE'S ROAD
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-2
Career Earnings:
$238,050
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-8-3
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Quality Road-Out Post

Won Fair Grounds' Gun Runner Stakes in December and was third there in the Louisiana Derby. Has experience at Churchill with a third-place finsih in the Iroquois Stakes at age 2. Ownership group includes West Point Thoroughbreds, part-owners of 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline.

SUN THUNDER
13
STATS →
SUN THUNDER
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$247,500
Past 5 Races:
4-5-2-4-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Greenfield d'Oro

Kentucky-based trainer McPeek won the Preakness (Swiss Skydiver) and Belmont (Sarava), but looks for his first Derby. Late-running 4th-place finisher in the Blue Grass Stakes was runner-up in the Risen Star in February and looks for his first career stakes win.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE
14
STATS →
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
6: 4-1-0
Career Earnings:
$1,069,375
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1-6
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Classic Empire-Armony's Angel

Top southern sophomore won Fair Grounds' Risen Star and Oaklawn's Arkansas Derby, making him a rare, 2-time winner at 1-1/8 miles already this season. Son of Classic Empire, who ran 4th in Kentucky Derby and 2nd in Preakness in 2017.

FORTE
15
STATS →
SCRATCHED
FORTE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
7: 6-1-0
Career Earnings:
$2,409,830
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Violence-Queen Caroline

Champion 2-Year-Old of 2022 has won 5 straight, including 4 Grade 1 stakes. His streak culminated with a thrilling Florida Derby rally at Gulfstream Park. He has been the favored individual entry in each Kentucky Derby Future Wager of 2023 and expected favorite on the first Saturday in May.

RAISE CAIN
16
STATS →
RAISE CAIN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$296,328
Past 5 Races:
5-1-5-2-3
Jockey:
Gerardo Corrales
Trainer:
Ben Colebrook
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Violence-Lemon Belle

The only Gotham Stakes winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Secretariat, fitting that this is his 50th anniversary to his Triple Crown glory. Both career wins have been in 1-turn races, and he's 0-3 around 2 turns, including a no-threat 5th in the Blue Grass.

DERMA SOTOGAKE
17
STATS →
DERMA SOTOGAKE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
8: 4-0-2
Career Earnings:
$1,162,164
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-1-1
Jockey:
Christophe Lemaire
Trainer:
Hidetaka Otonashi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3yo
Pedigree:
Mind Your Biscuits-Amour Poesie

The most accomplished of the Japanese contingent, he's the winner of the UAE Derby, third-place finisher in the Saudi Derby and multiple stakes winner in his homeland. UAE Derby alumni are 0-17 in the Kentucky Derby. Led wire-to-wire in Dubai and should be part of the early pace.

ROCKET CAN
18
STATS →
ROCKET CAN
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$383,413
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-2-1
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Tension

Gulfstream Park's Holy Bull winner finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Owns a win and a runner-up in 2 Churchill Downs tries at age 2, and sire Into Mischief was responsible for Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021 via DQ).

LORD MILES
19
STATS →
SCRATCHED
LORD MILES
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-0-1
Career Earnings:
$451,100
Past 5 Races:
1-5-6-3-1
Jockey:
Paco Lopez
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Brown/3yo
Pedigree:
Curlin-Lady Esme

Son of 2007 Derby third and Preakness winner Curlin pulled the prep season's biggest upset at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial. His only previous win came in a 6-furlong maiden race in November. Florida-based colt looks for his second successful roadtrip shocker.

CONTINUAR
20
STATS →
SCRATCHED
CONTINUAR
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$337,899
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Drefong-Pan de Ring

Winner of the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase earned an automatic berth to the Derby. Distant third in the UAE Derby as part of a sweep of the top 4 placings by Japanese-based runners, which included Derma Sotogake, also in the Kentucky Derby field. Trainer Yahagi is a 2-time Breeders' Cup winner on US soil.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF
21
STATS →
CYCLONE MISCHIEF
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-0-3
Career Earnings:
$246,350
Past 5 Races:
3-3-7-1-7
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Dale Romans
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Areyoucominghere

Veteran of the 3 Gulfstream Park major preps, he finished third in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Louisville native Dale Romans is a Preakness winner (Shackleford 2011) and seeks his first Kentucky Derby score. Son of Into Mischief, sire of 2020 and 2021 Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun.

MANDARIN HERO
22
STATS →
MANDARIN HERO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 4-2-0
Career Earnings:
$386,854
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
Terunobu Fujita
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Shanghai Bobby-Namura Nadeshiko

Nose defeat in the Santa Anita Derby showed this Japanese runner belongs with America's best. He's a nose and a neck away from a perfect record in 6 starts and made the fast rise out of his homeland's secondary circuit in the NAR. Son on 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby.

KING RUSSELL
23
STATS →
KING RUSSELL
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-3-0
Career Earnings:
$322,350
Past 5 Races:
2-1-2-2-10
Jockey:
Rafael Bejarano
Trainer:
Ron Moquett
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Creative Cause-Believe You Will

Pride of the 2012 sophomore crop, he's by Preakness third and Derby fifth-place finisher Creative Cause and out of a full-sister to that year's Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Runner-up in Arkansas Derby at 58-1 odds behind Angel of Empire in his only stakes bid.

HIT SHOW
STATS →
1
HIT SHOW
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$404,375
Past 5 Races:
2-1-1-4-1
Jockey:
Manny Franco
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Candy Ride-Actress

Runaway Withers winner was expected to repeat in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct's same distance, but was a nose short as the 8-5 favorite. The Wood hasn't produced the Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003, but did springboard last year's Preakness winner Early Voting and Belmont winner Mo Donegal.

VERIFYING
STATS →
2
VERIFYING
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
6: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$489,900
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1-6-2
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Justify-Diva Delite

Blue Grass Stakes runner-up by a neck could be part of the early pace in the Triple Crown series. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify has yet to win a stakes in 4 attempts. Could join Forte and Blazing Sevens as the only '22 Breeders' Cup Juvenile alumni in this year's Derby field.

TWO PHIL'S
STATS →
3
TWO PHIL'S
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
8: 4-1-1
Career Earnings:
$683,450
Past 5 Races:
1-3-2-1-7
Jockey:
Jareth Loveberry
Trainer:
Larry Rivelli
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Hard Spun-Mia Torri

Graded stakes winner at ages 2 and 3, he comes off his signature victory in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway. He's won on dirt and the Tapeta synthetic surface. First Triple Crown appearance for Midwest-based jockey and trainer.

CONFIDENCE GAME
STATS →
4
CONFIDENCE GAME
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-1-2
Career Earnings:
$785,525
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-2-5
Jockey:
James Graham
Trainer:
Keith Desormeaux
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Candy Ride-Eblouissante

Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes winner has not competed since February 25, a 10-week layoff that's never been successful in winning the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Desormeaux won the 2016 Preakness with Exaggerator, that year's Derby runner-up. His mother (dam) is half-sister to the legendary champion Zenyatta.

TAPIT TRICE
STATS →
5
TAPIT TRICE
M/L
5-1
Career Record:
5: 4-0-1
Career Earnings:
$883,650
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-3
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Tapit-Danzatrice

Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes winner has won 4 straight races with a strong-finishing style. The $1.3 million yearling purchase is by far the most expensive horse in this year's Derby field. Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) remains the only Derby winner to sell for 7 figures.

KINGSBARNS
STATS →
6
KINGSBARNS
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
3: 3-0-0
Career Earnings:
$657,300
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Uncle Mo-Lady Tapit

Only unbeaten runner heading into this year's Kentucky Derby, he made the class rise with success in the Louisiana Derby to get here. Wire-to-wire winner that day of America's longest Triple Crown prep race at 1-3/16 miles (Preakness distance). Regret, Big Brown & Justify won the Derby as 3-3 unbeatens.

REINCARNATE
STATS →
7
REINCARNATE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-3-2
Career Earnings:
$345,650
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Allanah

Winner of January's Sham Stakes while with trainer Bob Baffert, but transferred to Yakteen barn due to Baffert's 2-year Kentucky Derby suspension. Subsquently third in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Sire Good Magic also has Mage and Blazing Sevens in potential Derby lineup.

MAGE
STATS →
8
MAGE
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
3: 1-1-0
Career Earnings:
$247,200
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1
Jockey:
Javier Castellano
Trainer:
Gustavo Delgado
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Puca

Impressive January 28 debut winner at Gulfstream Park has taken the fast track to the Derby with only 3 starts. Finished fourth in the Fountan of Youth and second in the Florida Derby, cutting nearly 6 lengths of his margin vs. Forte in his last start. Grandson of Preakness winner Curlin and Derby winner Big Brown.

SKINNER
STATS →
9
SCRATCHED
SKINNER
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 1-0-3
Career Earnings:
$216,300
Past 5 Races:
3-3-1-6-3
Jockey:
Juan Hernandez
Trainer:
John Shirreffs
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Curlin-Winding Way

Late-running Santa Anita Derby third-place finish is from the same trainer who upset the 2005 Kentucky Derby with 50-1 Giacomo. Connections change jockeys from Victor Espinoza to Juan Hernandez, looking for a better style fit for this closer. Sire Curlin won the 2007 Preakness and was third in the Kentucky Derby.

PRACTICAL MOVE
STATS →
10
SCRATCHED
PRACTICAL MOVE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
7: 4-1-2
Career Earnings:
$884,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-3-1
Jockey:
Ramon Vazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Practical Joke-Ack Naughty

Scored a heart-pounding win in a 3-way photo in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby to sweep California's top 2 spring races, following up on March's San Felipe stylish victory. Running style keeps him in close contact to the leaders under Triple Crown rookie rider Vazquez.

DISARM
STATS →
11
DISARM
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
4: 1-2-1
Career Earnings:
$327,850
Past 5 Races:
3-2-2-1-3
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Gun Runner-Easy Tap

Earned Derby qualifying points in final race of prep series, finishing third in the Lexington to propel him into the field. Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby has just a 7-furlong sprint win at Saratoga in his win column. Trainer Asmussen has more wins than any in North American history, including Preakness & Belmont scores, but no Derby wins to date.

JACE'S ROAD
STATS →
12
JACE'S ROAD
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-2
Career Earnings:
$238,050
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-8-3
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Quality Road-Out Post

Won Fair Grounds' Gun Runner Stakes in December and was third there in the Louisiana Derby. Has experience at Churchill with a third-place finsih in the Iroquois Stakes at age 2. Ownership group includes West Point Thoroughbreds, part-owners of 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline.

SUN THUNDER
STATS →
13
SUN THUNDER
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$247,500
Past 5 Races:
4-5-2-4-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Greenfield d'Oro

Kentucky-based trainer McPeek won the Preakness (Swiss Skydiver) and Belmont (Sarava), but looks for his first Derby. Late-running 4th-place finisher in the Blue Grass Stakes was runner-up in the Risen Star in February and looks for his first career stakes win.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE
STATS →
14
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
6: 4-1-0
Career Earnings:
$1,069,375
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1-6
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Classic Empire-Armony's Angel

Top southern sophomore won Fair Grounds' Risen Star and Oaklawn's Arkansas Derby, making him a rare, 2-time winner at 1-1/8 miles already this season. Son of Classic Empire, who ran 4th in Kentucky Derby and 2nd in Preakness in 2017.

FORTE
STATS →
15
SCRATCHED
FORTE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
7: 6-1-0
Career Earnings:
$2,409,830
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Violence-Queen Caroline

Champion 2-Year-Old of 2022 has won 5 straight, including 4 Grade 1 stakes. His streak culminated with a thrilling Florida Derby rally at Gulfstream Park. He has been the favored individual entry in each Kentucky Derby Future Wager of 2023 and expected favorite on the first Saturday in May.

RAISE CAIN
STATS →
16
RAISE CAIN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$296,328
Past 5 Races:
5-1-5-2-3
Jockey:
Gerardo Corrales
Trainer:
Ben Colebrook
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Violence-Lemon Belle

The only Gotham Stakes winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Secretariat, fitting that this is his 50th anniversary to his Triple Crown glory. Both career wins have been in 1-turn races, and he's 0-3 around 2 turns, including a no-threat 5th in the Blue Grass.

DERMA SOTOGAKE
STATS →
17
DERMA SOTOGAKE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
8: 4-0-2
Career Earnings:
$1,162,164
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-1-1
Jockey:
Christophe Lemaire
Trainer:
Hidetaka Otonashi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3yo
Pedigree:
Mind Your Biscuits-Amour Poesie

The most accomplished of the Japanese contingent, he's the winner of the UAE Derby, third-place finisher in the Saudi Derby and multiple stakes winner in his homeland. UAE Derby alumni are 0-17 in the Kentucky Derby. Led wire-to-wire in Dubai and should be part of the early pace.

ROCKET CAN
STATS →
18
ROCKET CAN
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$383,413
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-2-1
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Tension

Gulfstream Park's Holy Bull winner finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Owns a win and a runner-up in 2 Churchill Downs tries at age 2, and sire Into Mischief was responsible for Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021 via DQ).

LORD MILES
STATS →
19
SCRATCHED
LORD MILES
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-0-1
Career Earnings:
$451,100
Past 5 Races:
1-5-6-3-1
Jockey:
Paco Lopez
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Brown/3yo
Pedigree:
Curlin-Lady Esme

Son of 2007 Derby third and Preakness winner Curlin pulled the prep season's biggest upset at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial. His only previous win came in a 6-furlong maiden race in November. Florida-based colt looks for his second successful roadtrip shocker.

CONTINUAR
STATS →
20
SCRATCHED
CONTINUAR
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$337,899
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Drefong-Pan de Ring

Winner of the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase earned an automatic berth to the Derby. Distant third in the UAE Derby as part of a sweep of the top 4 placings by Japanese-based runners, which included Derma Sotogake, also in the Kentucky Derby field. Trainer Yahagi is a 2-time Breeders' Cup winner on US soil.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF
STATS →
21
CYCLONE MISCHIEF
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-0-3
Career Earnings:
$246,350
Past 5 Races:
3-3-7-1-7
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Dale Romans
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Areyoucominghere

Veteran of the 3 Gulfstream Park major preps, he finished third in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Louisville native Dale Romans is a Preakness winner (Shackleford 2011) and seeks his first Kentucky Derby score. Son of Into Mischief, sire of 2020 and 2021 Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun.

MANDARIN HERO
STATS →
22
MANDARIN HERO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 4-2-0
Career Earnings:
$386,854
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
Terunobu Fujita
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Shanghai Bobby-Namura Nadeshiko

Nose defeat in the Santa Anita Derby showed this Japanese runner belongs with America's best. He's a nose and a neck away from a perfect record in 6 starts and made the fast rise out of his homeland's secondary circuit in the NAR. Son on 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby.

KING RUSSELL
STATS →
23
KING RUSSELL
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-3-0
Career Earnings:
$322,350
Past 5 Races:
2-1-2-2-10
Jockey:
Rafael Bejarano
Trainer:
Ron Moquett
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Creative Cause-Believe You Will

Pride of the 2012 sophomore crop, he's by Preakness third and Derby fifth-place finisher Creative Cause and out of a full-sister to that year's Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Runner-up in Arkansas Derby at 58-1 odds behind Angel of Empire in his only stakes bid.

HIT SHOW
STATS →
1
HIT SHOW
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$404,375
Past 5 Races:
2-1-1-4-1
Jockey:
Manny Franco
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Sire:
Candy Ride-Actress

Runaway Withers winner was expected to repeat in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct's same distance, but was a nose short as the 8-5 favorite. The Wood hasn't produced the Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003, but did springboard last year's Preakness winner Early Voting and Belmont winner Mo Donegal.

VERIFYING
STATS →
2
VERIFYING
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
6: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$489,900
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1-6-2
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Sire:
Justify-Diva Delite

Blue Grass Stakes runner-up by a neck could be part of the early pace in the Triple Crown series. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify has yet to win a stakes in 4 attempts. Could join Forte and Blazing Sevens as the only '22 Breeders' Cup Juvenile alumni in this year's Derby field.

TWO PHIL'S
STATS →
3
TWO PHIL'S
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
8: 4-1-1
Career Earnings:
$683,450
Past 5 Races:
1-3-2-1-7
Jockey:
Jareth Loveberry
Trainer:
Larry Rivelli
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Sire:
Hard Spun-Mia Torri

Graded stakes winner at ages 2 and 3, he comes off his signature victory in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway. He's won on dirt and the Tapeta synthetic surface. First Triple Crown appearance for Midwest-based jockey and trainer.

CONFIDENCE GAME
STATS →
4
CONFIDENCE GAME
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-1-2
Career Earnings:
$785,525
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-2-5
Jockey:
James Graham
Trainer:
Keith Desormeaux
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Sire:
Candy Ride-Eblouissante

Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes winner has not competed since February 25, a 10-week layoff that's never been successful in winning the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Desormeaux won the 2016 Preakness with Exaggerator, that year's Derby runner-up. His mother (dam) is half-sister to the legendary champion Zenyatta.

TAPIT TRICE
STATS →
5
TAPIT TRICE
M/L
5-1
Career Record:
5: 4-0-1
Career Earnings:
$883,650
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-3
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Sire:
Tapit-Danzatrice

Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes winner has won 4 straight races with a strong-finishing style. The $1.3 million yearling purchase is by far the most expensive horse in this year's Derby field. Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) remains the only Derby winner to sell for 7 figures.

KINGSBARNS
STATS →
6
KINGSBARNS
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
3: 3-0-0
Career Earnings:
$657,300
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Sire:
Uncle Mo-Lady Tapit

Only unbeaten runner heading into this year's Kentucky Derby, he made the class rise with success in the Louisiana Derby to get here. Wire-to-wire winner that day of America's longest Triple Crown prep race at 1-3/16 miles (Preakness distance). Regret, Big Brown & Justify won the Derby as 3-3 unbeatens.

REINCARNATE
STATS →
7
REINCARNATE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-3-2
Career Earnings:
$345,650
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Sire:
Good Magic-Allanah

Winner of January's Sham Stakes while with trainer Bob Baffert, but transferred to Yakteen barn due to Baffert's 2-year Kentucky Derby suspension. Subsquently third in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Sire Good Magic also has Mage and Blazing Sevens in potential Derby lineup.

MAGE
STATS →
8
MAGE
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
3: 1-1-0
Career Earnings:
$247,200
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1
Jockey:
Javier Castellano
Trainer:
Gustavo Delgado
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Sire:
Good Magic-Puca

Impressive January 28 debut winner at Gulfstream Park has taken the fast track to the Derby with only 3 starts. Finished fourth in the Fountan of Youth and second in the Florida Derby, cutting nearly 6 lengths of his margin vs. Forte in his last start. Grandson of Preakness winner Curlin and Derby winner Big Brown.

SKINNER
STATS →
9
SCRATCHED
SKINNER
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 1-0-3
Career Earnings:
$216,300
Past 5 Races:
3-3-1-6-3
Jockey:
Juan Hernandez
Trainer:
John Shirreffs
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Sire:
Curlin-Winding Way

Late-running Santa Anita Derby third-place finish is from the same trainer who upset the 2005 Kentucky Derby with 50-1 Giacomo. Connections change jockeys from Victor Espinoza to Juan Hernandez, looking for a better style fit for this closer. Sire Curlin won the 2007 Preakness and was third in the Kentucky Derby.

PRACTICAL MOVE
STATS →
10
SCRATCHED
PRACTICAL MOVE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
7: 4-1-2
Career Earnings:
$884,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-3-1
Jockey:
Ramon Vazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Sire:
Practical Joke-Ack Naughty

Scored a heart-pounding win in a 3-way photo in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby to sweep California's top 2 spring races, following up on March's San Felipe stylish victory. Running style keeps him in close contact to the leaders under Triple Crown rookie rider Vazquez.

DISARM
STATS →
11
DISARM
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
4: 1-2-1
Career Earnings:
$327,850
Past 5 Races:
3-2-2-1-3
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Sire:
Gun Runner-Easy Tap

Earned Derby qualifying points in final race of prep series, finishing third in the Lexington to propel him into the field. Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby has just a 7-furlong sprint win at Saratoga in his win column. Trainer Asmussen has more wins than any in North American history, including Preakness & Belmont scores, but no Derby wins to date.

JACE'S ROAD
STATS →
12
JACE'S ROAD
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-2
Career Earnings:
$238,050
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-8-3
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Sire:
Quality Road-Out Post

Won Fair Grounds' Gun Runner Stakes in December and was third there in the Louisiana Derby. Has experience at Churchill with a third-place finsih in the Iroquois Stakes at age 2. Ownership group includes West Point Thoroughbreds, part-owners of 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline.

SUN THUNDER
STATS →
13
SUN THUNDER
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$247,500
Past 5 Races:
4-5-2-4-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Sire:
Into Mischief-Greenfield d'Oro

Kentucky-based trainer McPeek won the Preakness (Swiss Skydiver) and Belmont (Sarava), but looks for his first Derby. Late-running 4th-place finisher in the Blue Grass Stakes was runner-up in the Risen Star in February and looks for his first career stakes win.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE
STATS →
14
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
6: 4-1-0
Career Earnings:
$1,069,375
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1-6
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Sire:
Classic Empire-Armony's Angel

Top southern sophomore won Fair Grounds' Risen Star and Oaklawn's Arkansas Derby, making him a rare, 2-time winner at 1-1/8 miles already this season. Son of Classic Empire, who ran 4th in Kentucky Derby and 2nd in Preakness in 2017.

FORTE
STATS →
15
SCRATCHED
FORTE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
7: 6-1-0
Career Earnings:
$2,409,830
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Sire:
Violence-Queen Caroline

Champion 2-Year-Old of 2022 has won 5 straight, including 4 Grade 1 stakes. His streak culminated with a thrilling Florida Derby rally at Gulfstream Park. He has been the favored individual entry in each Kentucky Derby Future Wager of 2023 and expected favorite on the first Saturday in May.

RAISE CAIN
STATS →
16
RAISE CAIN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$296,328
Past 5 Races:
5-1-5-2-3
Jockey:
Gerardo Corrales
Trainer:
Ben Colebrook
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Sire:
Violence-Lemon Belle

The only Gotham Stakes winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Secretariat, fitting that this is his 50th anniversary to his Triple Crown glory. Both career wins have been in 1-turn races, and he's 0-3 around 2 turns, including a no-threat 5th in the Blue Grass.

DERMA SOTOGAKE
STATS →
17
DERMA SOTOGAKE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
8: 4-0-2
Career Earnings:
$1,162,164
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-1-1
Jockey:
Christophe Lemaire
Trainer:
Hidetaka Otonashi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3yo
Sire:
Mind Your Biscuits-Amour Poesie

The most accomplished of the Japanese contingent, he's the winner of the UAE Derby, third-place finisher in the Saudi Derby and multiple stakes winner in his homeland. UAE Derby alumni are 0-17 in the Kentucky Derby. Led wire-to-wire in Dubai and should be part of the early pace.

ROCKET CAN
STATS →
18
ROCKET CAN
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$383,413
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-2-1
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Sire:
Into Mischief-Tension

Gulfstream Park's Holy Bull winner finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Owns a win and a runner-up in 2 Churchill Downs tries at age 2, and sire Into Mischief was responsible for Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021 via DQ).

LORD MILES
STATS →
19
SCRATCHED
LORD MILES
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-0-1
Career Earnings:
$451,100
Past 5 Races:
1-5-6-3-1
Jockey:
Paco Lopez
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Brown/3yo
Sire:
Curlin-Lady Esme

Son of 2007 Derby third and Preakness winner Curlin pulled the prep season's biggest upset at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial. His only previous win came in a 6-furlong maiden race in November. Florida-based colt looks for his second successful roadtrip shocker.

CONTINUAR
STATS →
20
SCRATCHED
CONTINUAR
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$337,899
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Sire:
Drefong-Pan de Ring

Winner of the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase earned an automatic berth to the Derby. Distant third in the UAE Derby as part of a sweep of the top 4 placings by Japanese-based runners, which included Derma Sotogake, also in the Kentucky Derby field. Trainer Yahagi is a 2-time Breeders' Cup winner on US soil.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF
STATS →
21
CYCLONE MISCHIEF
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-0-3
Career Earnings:
$246,350
Past 5 Races:
3-3-7-1-7
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Dale Romans
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Sire:
Into Mischief-Areyoucominghere

Veteran of the 3 Gulfstream Park major preps, he finished third in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Louisville native Dale Romans is a Preakness winner (Shackleford 2011) and seeks his first Kentucky Derby score. Son of Into Mischief, sire of 2020 and 2021 Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun.

MANDARIN HERO
STATS →
22
MANDARIN HERO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 4-2-0
Career Earnings:
$386,854
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
Terunobu Fujita
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Sire:
Shanghai Bobby-Namura Nadeshiko

Nose defeat in the Santa Anita Derby showed this Japanese runner belongs with America's best. He's a nose and a neck away from a perfect record in 6 starts and made the fast rise out of his homeland's secondary circuit in the NAR. Son on 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby.

KING RUSSELL
STATS →
23
KING RUSSELL
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-3-0
Career Earnings:
$322,350
Past 5 Races:
2-1-2-2-10
Jockey:
Rafael Bejarano
Trainer:
Ron Moquett
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Sire:
Creative Cause-Believe You Will

Pride of the 2012 sophomore crop, he's by Preakness third and Derby fifth-place finisher Creative Cause and out of a full-sister to that year's Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Runner-up in Arkansas Derby at 58-1 odds behind Angel of Empire in his only stakes bid.

HIT SHOW
STATS →
1
HIT SHOW
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 3-1-0
Career Earnings:
$404,375
Past 5 Races:
2-1-1-4-1
Jockey:
Manny Franco
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Candy Ride-Actress

Runaway Withers winner was expected to repeat in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct's same distance, but was a nose short as the 8-5 favorite. The Wood hasn't produced the Derby winner since Funny Cide in 2003, but did springboard last year's Preakness winner Early Voting and Belmont winner Mo Donegal.

VERIFYING
STATS →
2
VERIFYING
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
6: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$489,900
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1-6-2
Jockey:
Tyler Gaffalione
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Justify-Diva Delite

Blue Grass Stakes runner-up by a neck could be part of the early pace in the Triple Crown series. Son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify has yet to win a stakes in 4 attempts. Could join Forte and Blazing Sevens as the only '22 Breeders' Cup Juvenile alumni in this year's Derby field.

TWO PHIL'S
STATS →
3
TWO PHIL'S
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
8: 4-1-1
Career Earnings:
$683,450
Past 5 Races:
1-3-2-1-7
Jockey:
Jareth Loveberry
Trainer:
Larry Rivelli
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Hard Spun-Mia Torri

Graded stakes winner at ages 2 and 3, he comes off his signature victory in the Jeff Ruby at Turfway. He's won on dirt and the Tapeta synthetic surface. First Triple Crown appearance for Midwest-based jockey and trainer.

CONFIDENCE GAME
STATS →
4
CONFIDENCE GAME
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
7: 3-1-2
Career Earnings:
$785,525
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-2-5
Jockey:
James Graham
Trainer:
Keith Desormeaux
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Candy Ride-Eblouissante

Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes winner has not competed since February 25, a 10-week layoff that's never been successful in winning the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Desormeaux won the 2016 Preakness with Exaggerator, that year's Derby runner-up. His mother (dam) is half-sister to the legendary champion Zenyatta.

TAPIT TRICE
STATS →
5
TAPIT TRICE
M/L
5-1
Career Record:
5: 4-0-1
Career Earnings:
$883,650
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-3
Jockey:
Luis Saez
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Tapit-Danzatrice

Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes winner has won 4 straight races with a strong-finishing style. The $1.3 million yearling purchase is by far the most expensive horse in this year's Derby field. Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) remains the only Derby winner to sell for 7 figures.

KINGSBARNS
STATS →
6
KINGSBARNS
M/L
12-1
Career Record:
3: 3-0-0
Career Earnings:
$657,300
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1
Jockey:
Jose Ortiz
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Uncle Mo-Lady Tapit

Only unbeaten runner heading into this year's Kentucky Derby, he made the class rise with success in the Louisiana Derby to get here. Wire-to-wire winner that day of America's longest Triple Crown prep race at 1-3/16 miles (Preakness distance). Regret, Big Brown & Justify won the Derby as 3-3 unbeatens.

REINCARNATE
STATS →
7
REINCARNATE
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-3-2
Career Earnings:
$345,650
Past 5 Races:
3-2-1-1-2
Jockey:
John Velazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Allanah

Winner of January's Sham Stakes while with trainer Bob Baffert, but transferred to Yakteen barn due to Baffert's 2-year Kentucky Derby suspension. Subsquently third in the Rebel and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Sire Good Magic also has Mage and Blazing Sevens in potential Derby lineup.

MAGE
STATS →
8
MAGE
M/L
15-1
Career Record:
3: 1-1-0
Career Earnings:
$247,200
Past 5 Races:
2-4-1
Jockey:
Javier Castellano
Trainer:
Gustavo Delgado
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Good Magic-Puca

Impressive January 28 debut winner at Gulfstream Park has taken the fast track to the Derby with only 3 starts. Finished fourth in the Fountan of Youth and second in the Florida Derby, cutting nearly 6 lengths of his margin vs. Forte in his last start. Grandson of Preakness winner Curlin and Derby winner Big Brown.

SKINNER
STATS →
9
SCRATCHED
SKINNER
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 1-0-3
Career Earnings:
$216,300
Past 5 Races:
3-3-1-6-3
Jockey:
Juan Hernandez
Trainer:
John Shirreffs
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Curlin-Winding Way

Late-running Santa Anita Derby third-place finish is from the same trainer who upset the 2005 Kentucky Derby with 50-1 Giacomo. Connections change jockeys from Victor Espinoza to Juan Hernandez, looking for a better style fit for this closer. Sire Curlin won the 2007 Preakness and was third in the Kentucky Derby.

PRACTICAL MOVE
STATS →
10
SCRATCHED
PRACTICAL MOVE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
7: 4-1-2
Career Earnings:
$884,200
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-3-1
Jockey:
Ramon Vazquez
Trainer:
Tim Yakteen
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Practical Joke-Ack Naughty

Scored a heart-pounding win in a 3-way photo in the Runhappy Santa Anita Derby to sweep California's top 2 spring races, following up on March's San Felipe stylish victory. Running style keeps him in close contact to the leaders under Triple Crown rookie rider Vazquez.

DISARM
STATS →
11
DISARM
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
4: 1-2-1
Career Earnings:
$327,850
Past 5 Races:
3-2-2-1-3
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Steve Asmussen
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Gun Runner-Easy Tap

Earned Derby qualifying points in final race of prep series, finishing third in the Lexington to propel him into the field. Runner-up in the Louisiana Derby has just a 7-furlong sprint win at Saratoga in his win column. Trainer Asmussen has more wins than any in North American history, including Preakness & Belmont scores, but no Derby wins to date.

JACE'S ROAD
STATS →
12
JACE'S ROAD
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 2-0-2
Career Earnings:
$238,050
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-8-3
Jockey:
Florent Geroux
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Quality Road-Out Post

Won Fair Grounds' Gun Runner Stakes in December and was third there in the Louisiana Derby. Has experience at Churchill with a third-place finsih in the Iroquois Stakes at age 2. Ownership group includes West Point Thoroughbreds, part-owners of 2022 Horse of the Year Flightline.

SUN THUNDER
STATS →
13
SUN THUNDER
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-1-1
Career Earnings:
$247,500
Past 5 Races:
4-5-2-4-1
Jockey:
Brian Hernandez Jr.
Trainer:
Kenny McPeek
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Greenfield d'Oro

Kentucky-based trainer McPeek won the Preakness (Swiss Skydiver) and Belmont (Sarava), but looks for his first Derby. Late-running 4th-place finisher in the Blue Grass Stakes was runner-up in the Risen Star in February and looks for his first career stakes win.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE
STATS →
14
ANGEL OF EMPIRE
M/L
8-1
Career Record:
6: 4-1-0
Career Earnings:
$1,069,375
Past 5 Races:
1-1-2-1-6
Jockey:
Flavien Prat
Trainer:
Brad Cox
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Classic Empire-Armony's Angel

Top southern sophomore won Fair Grounds' Risen Star and Oaklawn's Arkansas Derby, making him a rare, 2-time winner at 1-1/8 miles already this season. Son of Classic Empire, who ran 4th in Kentucky Derby and 2nd in Preakness in 2017.

FORTE
STATS →
15
SCRATCHED
FORTE
M/L
3-1
Career Record:
7: 6-1-0
Career Earnings:
$2,409,830
Past 5 Races:
1-1-1-1-1
Jockey:
Irad Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer:
Todd Pletcher
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Violence-Queen Caroline

Champion 2-Year-Old of 2022 has won 5 straight, including 4 Grade 1 stakes. His streak culminated with a thrilling Florida Derby rally at Gulfstream Park. He has been the favored individual entry in each Kentucky Derby Future Wager of 2023 and expected favorite on the first Saturday in May.

RAISE CAIN
STATS →
16
RAISE CAIN
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
7: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$296,328
Past 5 Races:
5-1-5-2-3
Jockey:
Gerardo Corrales
Trainer:
Ben Colebrook
Color/Age:
Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Violence-Lemon Belle

The only Gotham Stakes winner to win the Kentucky Derby was Secretariat, fitting that this is his 50th anniversary to his Triple Crown glory. Both career wins have been in 1-turn races, and he's 0-3 around 2 turns, including a no-threat 5th in the Blue Grass.

DERMA SOTOGAKE
STATS →
17
DERMA SOTOGAKE
M/L
10-1
Career Record:
8: 4-0-2
Career Earnings:
$1,162,164
Past 5 Races:
1-3-1-1-1
Jockey:
Christophe Lemaire
Trainer:
Hidetaka Otonashi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3yo
Pedigree:
Mind Your Biscuits-Amour Poesie

The most accomplished of the Japanese contingent, he's the winner of the UAE Derby, third-place finisher in the Saudi Derby and multiple stakes winner in his homeland. UAE Derby alumni are 0-17 in the Kentucky Derby. Led wire-to-wire in Dubai and should be part of the early pace.

ROCKET CAN
STATS →
18
ROCKET CAN
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-2-0
Career Earnings:
$383,413
Past 5 Races:
4-2-1-2-1
Jockey:
Junior Alvarado
Trainer:
Bill Mott
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Tension

Gulfstream Park's Holy Bull winner finished fourth in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. Owns a win and a runner-up in 2 Churchill Downs tries at age 2, and sire Into Mischief was responsible for Derby winners Authentic (2020) and Mandaloun (2021 via DQ).

LORD MILES
STATS →
19
SCRATCHED
LORD MILES
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
5: 2-0-1
Career Earnings:
$451,100
Past 5 Races:
1-5-6-3-1
Jockey:
Paco Lopez
Trainer:
Saffie Joseph Jr.
Color/Age:
Brown/3yo
Pedigree:
Curlin-Lady Esme

Son of 2007 Derby third and Preakness winner Curlin pulled the prep season's biggest upset at 59-1 in the Wood Memorial. His only previous win came in a 6-furlong maiden race in November. Florida-based colt looks for his second successful roadtrip shocker.

CONTINUAR
STATS →
20
SCRATCHED
CONTINUAR
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
5: 2-1-1
Career Earnings:
$337,899
Past 5 Races:
3-5-1-2-1
Jockey:
Ryusei Sakai
Trainer:
Yoshito Yahagi
Color/Age:
Chestnut/3YO
Pedigree:
Drefong-Pan de Ring

Winner of the Japanese Road to the Kentucky Derby points chase earned an automatic berth to the Derby. Distant third in the UAE Derby as part of a sweep of the top 4 placings by Japanese-based runners, which included Derma Sotogake, also in the Kentucky Derby field. Trainer Yahagi is a 2-time Breeders' Cup winner on US soil.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF
STATS →
21
CYCLONE MISCHIEF
M/L
30-1
Career Record:
7: 2-0-3
Career Earnings:
$246,350
Past 5 Races:
3-3-7-1-7
Jockey:
Joel Rosario
Trainer:
Dale Romans
Color/Age:
Bay/3YO
Pedigree:
Into Mischief-Areyoucominghere

Veteran of the 3 Gulfstream Park major preps, he finished third in the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. Louisville native Dale Romans is a Preakness winner (Shackleford 2011) and seeks his first Kentucky Derby score. Son of Into Mischief, sire of 2020 and 2021 Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun.

MANDARIN HERO
STATS →
22
MANDARIN HERO
M/L
20-1
Career Record:
6: 4-2-0
Career Earnings:
$386,854
Past 5 Races:
2-2-1-1-1
Jockey:
TBD
Trainer:
Terunobu Fujita
Color/Age:
Dark Bay or Brown/3YO
Pedigree:
Shanghai Bobby-Namura Nadeshiko

Nose defeat in the Santa Anita Derby showed this Japanese runner belongs with America's best. He's a nose and a neck away from a perfect record in 6 starts and made the fast rise out of his homeland's secondary circuit in the NAR. Son on 2012 Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby.

KING RUSSELL
STATS →
23
KING RUSSELL
M/L
50-1
Career Record:
6: 1-3-0
Career Earnings:
$322,350
Past 5 Races:
2-1-2-2-10
Jockey:
Rafael Bejarano
Trainer:
Ron Moquett
Color/Age:
Gray/3YO
Pedigree:
Creative Cause-Believe You Will

Pride of the 2012 sophomore crop, he's by Preakness third and Derby fifth-place finisher Creative Cause and out of a full-sister to that year's Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Runner-up in Arkansas Derby at 58-1 odds behind Angel of Empire in his only stakes bid.

kentucky derby

EXPERT BEST BETS

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JON WHITE
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FIRST CALL | racing podcast

  • JEFF SIEGEL & JEREMY PLONK
  • KENTUCKY OAKS
  • KENTUCKY DERBY
  • CONTENDER ANALYSIS
  • BETTING ANGLES

the machine

all races

KENTUCKY OAKS DAY

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE picks

powered by betmix

The 1/ST BET 'Machine' analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors for each race to create an exclusive handicapping outcome driven by big data.

POST
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
FAIR ODDS

KENTUCKY OAKS DAY FRIDAY, MAY 5

RACE 1 // MAIDEN
10:30AM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
12
FOREVER AFTER ALL
24%
40%
52%
7
K'ANTHEIA
19%
33%
46%
6
DESTINE TO RACE
14%
25%
34%
9
I HAD THAT ONE TOO
10%
25%
35%
RACE 2 // ALLOWANCE
11:00AM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
6
GROVE
24%
36%
40%
8
GOODBYE KYLE
16%
24%
34%
11
VAHVA
12%
26%
34%
4
FOGO ISLAND
10%
26%
34%
RACE 3 // ALLOWANCE
11:30AM ET // $134K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
18
CREATIVE MINISTER
18%
31%
42%
13
PRICE TALK
16%
29%
37%
17
BUTTON BOY
10%
17%
22%
6
POINT ME BY
6%
14%
25%
RACE 4 // ALLOWANCE
12:05PM ET // $134K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
4
NOT SO CLOSE
18%
31%
42%
16
MOUFFY
18%
30%
41%
9
JUMP INTO THE FIRE
14%
16%
25%
7
HEARTYCONSTITUTION
9%
18%
24%
RACE 5 // G2 ALYSHEBA
12:43PM ET // $600K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
4
WEST WILL POWER
27%
47%
68%
1
ART COLLECTOR
22%
46%
61%
2
LAST SAMURAI
14%
30%
45%
3
RICH STRIKE
14%
29%
45%
RACE 6 // G3 MODESTY
1:26PM ET // $300K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
6
McKULICK
29%
45%
56%
8
NEW YEAR'S EVE
15%
32%
46%
7
SHANTISARA
14%
34%
52%
4
SPARKLE BLUE
11%
20%
34%
RACE 7 // G2 EIGHT BELLES
2:09PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
9
MUNNY'S GOLD
28%
51%
61%
8
ACCEDE
19%
31%
51%
4
EFFORTLESSLYELGANT
15%
22%
34%
6
RED CARPET BEAUTY
12%
22%
28%
RACE 8 // UNBRIDLED SIDNEY
3:03PM ET // $300K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
11
CARAVEL
26%
379%
51%
1
BAY STORM
17%
27%
39%
8
OEUVRE
13%
31%
41%
9
LITTLE JEWEL
8%
21%
28%
RACE 9 // G1 LA TROIENNE
4:04PM ET // $750K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
SOCIETY
24%
51%
62%
1
PLAYED HARD
15%
28%
40%
4
SECRET OATH
14%
30%
45%
2
SEARCH RESULTS
10%
16%
28%
RACE 10 // G2 EDGEWOOD
4:51PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
LIGURIA
23%
36%
51%
5
PRELIMINARY
19%
34%
49%
8
HEAVENLY SUNDAY
13%
22%
32%
3
CAIRO CONSORT
7%
17%
34%
RACE 11 // G1 KENTUCKY OAKS
5:51PM ET // $1.25M
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
WET PAINT
29%
47%
55%
8
PROMISEHER AMERICA
15%
29%
37%
16
JULIA SHINING
14%
26%
38%
6
BOTANICAL
8%
12%
22%
RACE 12 // ALLOWANCE
6:25PM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
6
GUNS N' GRACES
21%
36%
51%
1
CURL GIRL
17%
35%
50%
7
FOREVER DIXIE
10%
20%
27%
5
HAYUNEVANO
9%
20%
33%
RACE 13 // MAIDEN
7:00PM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
14
AMERICAN RETRO
18%
35%
43%
1
KID'S LAST LAUGH
13%
25%
29%
8
NO GUILT
10%
13%
19%
7
EXCELLENT QUESTION
8%
17%
24%

RACE 11

MILLIE BALL

KENTUCKY OAKS

friday // may 5

G1 - $1,250,000

SCENE SETTER: The past 6 Kentucky Oaks winners have hailed from 5 different prep locales, proving the division has plenty of national reach. Last year it was Secret Oath via Oaklawn, and the likely Friday favorite this year, WET PAINT, follows that same Arkansas path. While we saw upsets on the 2023 Oaks trail in Florida, Kentucky and Louisiana – and the top prep winners from California and New York are bypassing the race – WET PAINT offers stability. She swept the Martha Washington, Honeybee and Fantasy for 2018 and 2020 Oaks-winning trainer Brad Cox, who also has the synthetic-surface superstar BOTANICAL. Last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Filly WONDER WHEEL has some rebounding to do after a pair of losses.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

The Top-5 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factors for the Kentucky Oaks are Avg. Speed Last 3, Horses Beaten %, Last Turn Time, Best Speed Fast Track and Speed Last Race.
In 2022, 2 fillies were top-ranked in 2 or more different Top-10 individual 1/ST BET factors: Desert Dawn (2 top rankings, 3rd), Echo Zulu (5 top rankings, 4th).

workout report // xbtv:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $4 Trifecta Box: PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS, WET PAINT, SOUTHLAWN, THE ALYS LOOK ($96)
  • $4 Exacta: PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS-WET PAINT ($4)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS
2. WET PAINT
3. SOUTHLAWN
4. THE ALYS LOOK

KNOW THIS

The Kentucky Derby morning line favorite has been the final, post-time favorite 78% of the time since Mike Battaglia began setting the odds in 1974. The morning line favorite owns 7 wins since 2000.

For all the talk about two-prep paths being the new wave of Derby success, the last 6 official winners of this race all had 3 or 4 preps during that current year.

Gulfstream Park’s Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (24) all-time than any other prep race. The Blue Grass at Keeneland is next with 23.

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KENTUCKY DERBY DAY

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE picks

powered by betmix

The 1/ST BET 'Machine' analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors for each race to create an exclusive handicapping outcome driven by big data.

POST
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
FAIR ODDS

KENTUCKY DERBY DAY saturDAY, MAY 6

RACE 1 // ALLOWANCE
10:30AM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
1
EXTRA ANEJO
31%
43%
55%
2
OLAZABAL
18%
37%
52%
7
BACKSIDE BUZZ
11%
29%
45%
3
FEDERAL JUDGE
11%
24%
39%
RACE 2 // MAIDEN
11:01AM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
8
QUALITY CHIC
25%
41%
53%
1
CAPE TRAFALGAR
20%
33%
48%
7
JUST A PHOTO
15%
26%
35%
6
QUATERNION
10%
26%
37%
RACE 3 // ALLOWANCE
11:31AM ET // $134K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
1
BRIGHT FUTURE
19%
34%
46%
5
KING OTTOMAN
19%
33%
44%
12
SUPER DESIGN
14%
18%
28%
11
BRIGADIER GENERAL
10%
19%
26%
RACE 4 // G1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF
12:04PM ET // $750K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
GOODNIGHT OLIVE
31%
52%
67%
3
WICKED HALO
21%
43%
60%
5
MATAREYA
15%
31%
54%
1
HOT AND SULTRY
13%
32%
51%
RACE 5 // G2 DISTAFF TURF MILE
12:36PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
FLUFFY SOCKS
28%
52%
65%
5
SPENDARELLA
18%
26%
40%
4
WAKANAKA
16%
35%
52%
2
SPEAK OF THE DEVIL
8%
19%
40%
RACE 6 // KNICKS GO
1:14PM ET // $175K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
MASQUEPARADE
23%
41%
52%
6
ZOZOS
17%
32%
45%
11
KUPUNA
14%
24%
36%
10
NOBLE DRAMA
10%
19%
25%
RACE 7 // G2 TURF SPRINT
1:56PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
10
ARREST ME RED
23%
35%
48%
4
BIG INVASION
17%
27%
36%
11
MOTORIOUS
12%
22%
34%
7
NOTHING BETTER
8%
21%
29%
RACE 8 // G2 PAT MILE
2:46PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
5
ECHO AGAIN
19%
37%
53%
10
CURLY JACK
15%
22%
27%
6
FROSTED DEPARTURE
11%
23%
32%
1
KANGAROO COURT
10%
20%
24%
RACE 9 // G2 AMERICAN TURF
3:40PM ET // $500K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
15
WADSWORTH
21%
31%
42%
1
MAJOR DUDE
18%
29%
40%
11
CARL SPACKLER
12%
18%
25%
8
MO STASH
6%
20%
25%
RACE 10 // G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS
4:31PM ET // $750K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
7
cody's wish
25%
44%
62%
9
sir alfred james
14%
27%
31%
5
get her number
10%
27%
42%
10
endorsed
10%
14%
22%
RACE 11 // G1 TURF CLASSIC
5:27PM ET // $1M
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
8
SANTIN
22%
37%
50%
7
HONG KONG HARRY
16%
35%
51%
6
EARLS ROCK
13%
25%
35%
3
WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST
11%
25%
35%
RACE 12 // G1 KENTUCKY DERBY
6:57PM ET // $3M
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
15
FORTE
24%
29%
34%
5
TAPIT TRICE
11%
16%
27%
6
KINGSBARNS
10%
22%
29%
10
PRACTICAL MOVE
8%
15%
26%
RACE 13 // ALLOWANCE
7:55PM ET // $127K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
EQUIVOQUE
21%
36%
51%
6
PROMISE ME A RIDE
17%
35%
50%
7
ACT A FOOL
10%
20%
27%
5
B MINOR
9%
20%
33%
RACE 14 // MAIDEN
8:30PM ET // $120K
PP
HORSE
WIN%
PLACE%
SHOW%
2
EVERSO MISCHIEVOUS
18%
35%
43%
9
MULLIKIN
13%
25%
29%
1
MACHO VILLA
10%
13%
19%
5
GOLDEN SOMBRERO
8%
17%
24%

RACE 12

EDDIE OLCZYK

KENTUCKY DERBY

saturday // may 6

G1 - $3,000,000

SCENE SETTER: Florida Derby winner FORTE walked a tight rope in his final prep, capturing his fifth straight victory. But did his narrow escape open the door to the rest of the class? Last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old is thefirst 4-time Grade 1 winner in the Kentucky Derby field since Nyquist also added the roses in 2016. Since then, 5 straight Champion 2-Year-Olds have lost in Louisville. FORTE’s trainer Todd Pletcher won the 2017 Derby with Always Dreaming in the only other year he’s saddled the favorite. Curators of speed figures can’t agree whether he’s ascending or regressing. But note: the Derby post-time favorite hasn’t finished out of the superfecta since 2011; expectations remain high even if less certain than a month ago.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

Among the Top-10 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factors for the Kentucky Derby are Avg. Speed Last 3, Avg. Best 2 of Last 3 Speed and Speed Last Race.
In 2022, 4 horses were top-ranked in 2 different Top-10 individual 1/ST BET factors: Epicenter (2nd), Zandon (3rd), Taiba (12th) and Messier (15th).

workout report // xbtv:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $20 Win-Place: VERIFYING ($40)
  • $10 Exacta Key: VERIFYING over TAPIT TRICE, REINCARNATE, ANGEL OF EMPIRE ($30)
  • $10 Exacta Key: TAPIT TRICE, REINCARNATE, ANGEL OF EMPIRE over VERIFYING ($30)

TOP 4 PICKS

1. VERIFYING
2. TAPIT TRICE
3. REINCARNATE
4. ANGEL OF EMPIRE

DERBY HISTORY: tHE LAST...

Jockey to win back-to-back: Victor Espinoza (2014 California Chrome, 2015 American Pharoah) 

Trainer to win back-to-back: Bob Baffert (1997 Silver Charm, 1998 Real Quiet) 

Jockey to win Derby debut: Sonny Leon (2022 Rich Strike) 

Trainer to win Derby debut: Eric Reed (2022 Rich Strike)

KNOW THIS

It’s the golden anniversary of Secretariat’s 1973 Kentucky Derby victory and Triple Crown sweep. He still owns the Kentucky Derby record of 1:59-2/5 for a mile and one-quarter, the Preakness standard of 1:53 flat for a mile and three-sixteenths, as well as the world record for a mile and one-half in the Belmont Stakes (2:24 flat).

The reigning 2-Year-Old Champion owns a 21-for-80 record in the Kentucky Derby all-time. Forte will try to become the first to win the roses since Nyquist in 2016.

Rich Strike’s $163.60 win mutuel for $2 last year was second-highest in Kentucky Derby history. The top-5 are rounded out by $184.90 (Donerail, 1913), $132.40 (Country House, 2019), $103.20 (Mine That Bird, 2009) and $102.60 (Giacomo, 2005).

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RACE 12

jeff siegel

kentucky derby

JEFF'S TAKE

G1 - $3,000,000

SCENE SETTER: Longshots are as much a part of the Kentucky Derby attraction as mint juleps and floppy hats. Rich Strike’s 80-1 score last May will be fresh on the minds of a win-pool wagering public when betting reconvenes. And why not? It was the second-biggest upset in Derby history. Further, 4 of the Top-5 win payoffs have come in the just the last 18 of the Derby’s 148 runnings. Raise a glass to 50-1 bombers like Giacomo and Mine That Bird, as well as 65-1 Country House. The $2 payoff of $184.90 for Donerail in 1913 remains the pinnacle. Following Giacomo and Mine That Bird, the next year’s Derby favorites were 5.50-1 and 6.30-1 as a tepid public feared that anything’s possible. Key players this year may be higher odds than expected, thanks, in part, to Rich Strike.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

Among the Top-10 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factors for the Kentucky Derby are Trainer 2-Year Win %, Jockey 1-Year Win % and Horses Beaten %.
In 2021, 3 horses were top-ranked in 2 or more different Top-10 individual 1/ST BET factors: Hot Rod Charlie (3 top rankings, 2nd-DQ), Essential Quality (2 top rankings, 3rd-DQ), Highly Motivated 2 top rankings, 9th-DQ).

workout report // XBTV:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $28 Win: DERMA SOTOGAKE
  • $8 Exacta Box: DERM SOTOGAKE with TAPIT TRICE with ANGEL OF EMPIRE ($48)
  • $2 Exacta Box: DERMA SOTOGAKE with TAPIT TRICE with KINGSBARNS ($12)
  • $2 Exacta Box: DERMA SOTOGAKE with TAPIT TRICE with CONFIDENCE GAME ($12)

TOP 4 picks

1. DERMA SOTOGAKE
2. TAPIT TRICE
3. ANGEL OF EMPIRE
4. KINGBARNS

THE LAST...

Arkansas Derby alum to win: Country House (2019) 

Blue Grass alum to win: Street Sense (2007) 

Florida Derby alum to win: Always Dreaming (2017) 

Louisiana Derby alum to win: Mandaloun (2021) 

Santa Anita Derby alum to win: Authentic (2020) 

Jeff Ruby alum to win: Rich Strike (2022) 

Wood Memorial alum to win: Funny Cide (2003)

KNOW THIS

In the last 50 years, the Kentucky Derby has been won wire-to-wire just 5 times. Bold Forbes did so in 1976, Spend a Buck in 1985, Winning Colors in 1988, War Emblem in 2002 and Authentic in 2020.

Horses exiting preps in the United Arab Emirates have a 17: 0-0-0 record all-time in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish was Master of Hound’s fifth in 2011.

The Derby has been run on a fast track each of the last 3 years. We haven’t had 4 straight fast tracks since 2005-’08.

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RACE 12

JEREMY PLONK

kentucky derby

PLONK'S PLAY

G1 - $3,000,000

SCENE SETTER: The only Derby 149 contenders to set the pace in a major prep all season long were KINGSBARNS in the Louisiana Derby and DERMA SOTOGAKE in the United Arab Emirates Derby. Coincidentally (or not), those also were the campaign’s two longest Derby preps (one mile and three-sixteenths each). JACE’S ROAD (Gun Runner Stakes) and REINCARNATE (Sham Stakes) made the front in lesser stakes, but neither could wrest the lead in either of their final two starts. This could project to be one of the slower Kentucky Derby paces in memory. The slowest fractions in the last 30 years came when Shackleford backed up the 2011 Derby in 48.63 for the opening half-mile and 1:13.40 for 6 furlongs before finishing fourth.

1/ST BET FACTORS, POWERED BY BETMIX:

Among the Top-10 individual 1/ST BET handicapping factorsfor the Kentucky Derby are Last Finish Position, Average Off-Track Earnings and Average of Last 3 E2 (Early) Pace.
In 2020, 2 horses were top-ranked in 2 or more different Top-10 individual 1/ST BET factors: Tiz the Law (5 top rankings, 2nd), Max Player (2 top rankings, 5th).

workout report // XBTV:

NAME
DATE
TRACK
DIST.
TIME

NOTES:

$100 wagering strategy:

  • $1.50 Trifecta Part-Wheel: DERMA SOTOGAKE, ANGEL OF EMPIRE with DERMA SOTOGAKE, ANGEL OF EMPIRE with ALL ($51)
  • $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: DERMA SOTOGAKE, ANGEL OF EMPIRE with ALL with DERMA SOTOGAKE, ANGEL OF EMPIRE ($34)
  • $10 Exacta: DERMA SOTOGAKE over MANDARIN HERO
  • $5 Exacta: ANGEL OF EMPIRE over MANDARIN HERO

TOP 4 picks

1. DERMA SOTOGAKE
2. ANGEL OF EMPIRE
3. MANDARIN HERO
4. TAPIT TRICE

STATS & TRENDS

DERBY FAVORITES IN POINTS (LAST 5 YEARS)
FAVORITES WINS BY DECADE

KNOW THIS

Trainer Eric Reed won his Derby debut last year with Rich Strike and joined a club that includes Art Sherman (2014, California Chrome), Chip Woolley (2009, Mine That Bird), Rick Dutrow (2008, Big Brown), Michael Matz (2006, Barbaro), John Servis (2004, Smarty Jones) and Barclay Tagg (2003, Funny Cide) in just the last 20 years.

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kentucky derby

THE LAST 25 YEARS

FACT SHEET

WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS

WIN ODDS
Average
17.42-to-1
--
High
80.80
Rich Strike '22
Low
2.30
Fuscaichi Pegasus '20; Nyquist '16
Notable: Last 4 official winners averaged nearly 42-1 following 6 straight winning favorites.
PLACE ODDS
Average
18.04-to-1
--
High
71.60
Closing Argument '05
Low
0.70
Tiz the Law '20
Notable: 5 of the last 8 official runners-up have been horses with single-digit odds.
SHOW ODDS
Average
11.98-to-1
--
High
46.50
Mr. Big News '20
Low
2.70
Indian Charlie '98
Notable: 10 of the last 19 official Derby third-place finishers have been 24-1 or more.

exotics payoffs

EXACTA ($2 PAYOFFS)
Average
$1,070.90
--
High
$9,814.80
Giacomo-Closing Argument '05
Low
$30.60
Nyquist-Exaggerator '16
Notable: Last year’s $4,102.20 payoff was the second-highest in the last 25 years.
TRIFECTA ($2 PAYOFFS)
Average
$13,015.77
--
High
$133,134.80
Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex '05
Low
$173.40
Nyquist-Exaggerator-Gun Runner '16
Notable: Last year’s $29,741.40 trifecta was the second-highest in the 28-year Derby history of the wager.
SUPERFECTA ($1 PAYOFFS)
Average
$87,913.46
--
High
$864,253.50
Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex-Don't Get Mad '05
Low
$542.10
Nyquist-Exaggerator-Gun Runner-Mohaymen '16
Notable: Last year’s $321,510.00 trifecta was the second-highest in the 27-year Derby history of the wager.

'22 derby handle totals

IN MILLIONS EXCEPT Hi-5

'22 kentucky derby replay

  • Rich Strike
  • Epicenter
  • Zandon
  • Simplification
  • Mo Donegal
'22 PAYOUTS (W-P-S RICH STRIKE)
$2 Win: $163.60
$2 Place: $74.20
$2 Show: $29.40
$2 Exacta: $4,101.20
$.50Trifecta: $7,435.35
$1 Superfecta: $643,000.20
$2 Hi-5: $1,482,037.80
$2 Double: $2,729.80
$.50 Pick 3: $1,612.20
$.50 Pick 4: $25,834.75
$.50 Pick 5: $247,215.56
$.50 Pick 6: $161,630.86

'23 kentucky derby past performance