Saturday’s Oaklawn card is one of the biggest of the long Hot Springs season, featuring the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint and the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. Those co-features make up two spots in the late pick 5 sequence that spans Races 8-12.
Let’s get to work.
Race 8: Count Fleet Sprint Handicap
A fantastic pace should give closers #8 Dreaminblue and #7 Tejano Twist every chance, but it’s behind quality speed that doesn’t have to wilt. I’ll trust #5 Roll On Big Joe and #4 Mad House most amongst the early pace players. Intra-race I’ll lean to value with Dreaminblue on the class rise.
Race 9: maiden special weight
#9 Munnings Challenge ran a strong debut second for Brad Cox and should graduate in her second start as a single. The Munnings filly is out of the outstanding local sprint mare Amy’s Challenge. She catches 8 rivals that include 6 first-time starters, mostly for barns with rather unthreatening debut stats. #1 No More Kings would be the alternative but has already had 5 attempts, several for claiming tags.
Race 10: Apple Blossom Handicap
The long series of Oaklawn preps emptying into the Apple Blossom Handicap have shown a consistent and strong local cast. The new faces showing up in the $1.25 million main event are primarily adding more speed to the fold. That won’t hurt #3 Regaled (3-1 ML) and #2 Majestic Oops (9-2 ML), who actually may move up with the additional pace. They ran 1-2 in the same-trip Azeri Stakes, but Regaled gets the nod Saturday with this being her second start off a layoff and a sharper-than-usual work at Churchill Sunday before hitting the road. I don’t like to go 2-deep and double the cost of a ticket when those horses both have the same running style. If it sets up for a closer like I project it will, then I am riding with Regaled.
Race 11: allowance
Deep group of 11 allowance milers requires some coverage. #1 Favorite Day (5-2) stacks up with these nicely but may be overbet after coming out of a very fast race against loose-leading Reagan’s Honor, a 3-year-old who bombed next out in the Blue Grass Stakes. Ron Moquett’s barn has been struggle city this season at Oaklawn, so you have to upgrade a horse with 2 wins and a third in 3 starts for the ice-cold operation like #6 Expect the Best (7-2). #9 Bourbon Society has led nearly every step in 2 starts (wins) at the current meet. There’s other pace competition, but the price is right at 12-1 ML.
Race 12: maiden claiming
The process of handicapping elimination in the finale left me with three morning line choices simply by default of not disliking them as much as the others. Beyond #6 El Chavo (7-2) for Steve Asmussen, #7 Conway (3-1) for Ron Moquett and #10 Ripples Rocket (4-1) for Allen Milligan, there’s very little embraceable form in this capacity field of 12. But that trio has had 16 tries between them and 3 exacta finishes while trying to graduate at the bottom level. Instead of creating false confidence, let’s spread our wings, wheel the field and shoot for a longshot. The budget play is to reduce to the short-priced trio and concede that your new best-case scenario is a smaller return.
The Ticket:
8,4,5,7 with 9 with 3 with 1,6,9 with ALL = $72 for 50 cents.
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