Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Saturday Stakes Analysis

Saturday’s co-featured stakes at Keeneland go in back-to-back races, making for a prime opportunity to take advantage of the track’s reduced 15% takeout daily double wagers offered this Spring Meet. Daily doubles are a great way to expand on a strong opinion as well as a way to build out some value on a horse you like at a price that may be less-than-excitable in the win pool.

The $350,000 Grade 2 Elkhorn in Race 8 should come down to the principal players, 3-2 morning line favorite #4 Bold Act and 4-1 morning line second choice Missed the Cut. Bold Act won Keeneland’s Sycamore with a powerful rally over this mile and one-half trip during the Fall Meet (pictured above) and held form splendidly through the winter with his Group 2 Dubai City of Gold win at Meydan. Trainer Charlie Appleby and jockey Frankie Dettori each have had major turf stakes success at Keeneland in recent weeks, Appleby winning the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile with Master of the Seas and Dettori piloting Grade 1 Jenny Wiley heroine Beaute Cachee.

Appleby also sends out Silver Knott, though the 12-furlong trip will be stretching his form. Missed the Cut has blossomed in California for trainer John Sadler, and this European export could love the Keeneland course, sired by excellent local turf influence Quality Road. Respect the German export Winning Spirit in his US debut. Longshot players consider Dynadrive. I love seeing Dynaformer in the pedigree of any Keeneland turf marathon prospect and Mike Maker has a history of high-dollar claims like this that become veteran major stakes winners long on the grass.

The Race 9 $300,000 Grade 3 Ben Ali will be contested over 1-3/16 miles on the dirt. First-time gelding Smile Happy has run some big races at Keeneland, but has always struck me best at 1-1/16 miles. The longer trip will test his considerable skill, even if trainer Kenny McPeek has found the needed recent wake-up call. Todd Pletcher easily has the most Keeneland dirt wins at trips 9 furlongs and farther, and his Kingbarns is a legitimate 2-1 morning line favorite. His form cycle should be perfect with a second start after the layoff and sprint-to-route move at the same time. He won last out at a trip shorter than his best and that should set him up for success. Single Kingsbarns in the multi-race bets and in daily doubles. Exacta players consider War Campaign, who has been consistent on dirt and proven over the track.