Keeneland’s Fall Meet kicks off 17 days on Friday with horseplayers typically optimistic about the high-quality offerings. Keeping that optimism often requires some handicapping success, so let’s get after it.
The stakes tri-features could very well run through the favorites: World Record in the Phoenix; Time to Dream in the Jessamine; and Tommy Jo in the Alcibiades. Because the gambling and glamour may not coincide Friday, look to the supporting races for value. Races 6 and 10 surround the stakes trio, making for a late pick 5 and late pick 4 that could open and close with prices. They will be two key races to attack both intra-race and multi-race if you want to connect through the potential favorites on a focused ticket.
Keeneland Race 6: allowance
Favorites are just 8-33 in Fall Meet turf mile ALW races at this first-level (N1X) condition, so don’t be afraid to shop with an average winner 6-1 odds in such spots. Also-eligible #14 Cliffs would be a serious threat if in, but regardless my lean is #9 Golden Gamble (6-1 ML odds). She’ll be second off the layoff after being too keen and too close to a fast pace at Kentucky Downs when returning from 8 months away. Look for new rider Jose Ortiz to get her to settle and finish strongly like she did on dirt in last year’s Untapable Stakes at Fair Grounds. Her BRIS late pace figure of 97 in that one is indicative of the close that can win this race, which historically has had a strong closer’s profile at Keeneland.
Keeneland Race 10: maiden special weight
Races 3 and 10 are split divisions of a 2-year-old MSW turf route, which is one of the biggest upset alert situations Keeneland offers in the Fall. The average winner from 65 such past races is 9.9-1 odds and favorites win just 27%. Two price plays jump out to me: #11 Island Girl and #6 Cove Spring in the second career start for both. Horses exiting turf routes with experience have a major edge in these Keeneland races historically and both were asked the tough route debut question. Cove Spring (12-1 ML) rallied for fourth at Kentucky Downs and has 2 works on the Turfway synthetic since that Sept. 5 unveiling. Top pick Island Girl (20-1 morning line) ran a better-than-it-looks seventh in her debut when a strong 92 BRIS late pace figure didn’t help dent the running lines when the race ran so terribly slow early and none of the pace came back to her. Ben Colebrook is a profitable trainer in second starts and that ROI gets another boost if we’re right.
Consider these prices intra-race and as part of the late pick 5 and late pick 4 stringing the 3 favorites between on very affordable tickets.
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