The Arlington Million sets up shop at Colonial Downs for the first time on Saturday and is part of a late pick five sequence that has a low 12% takeout. Within that wager is the late pick 4 as well as an all-stakes pick 3 that includes the Secretariat and Beverly D.
Let’s get to work.
Colonial Downs | Race 7 | handicap
Likely a chalky start to the pick 5 with #1 Bouncer (8-5 morning line) and #5 Frosted Departure (6-5 ML) standing out on class in just a 5-horse field. That factor pushes interest more into the later pick 4 and pick 3 in terms of value … unless you can develop a strong preference between the leading pair here and single. #1 Bouncer has more propensity to find the winner’s circle than the class-dropping Frosted Departure, who is just 1 for his last 10, and that’s how I’d lean if playing the pick 5 – otherwise await the later wagers.
Colonial Downs | Race 8 | Secretariat Stakes
Six of these 8 sophomores make a solid case for the victory in a Secretariat Stakes that’s been shortened to a one-mile affair from its former 10 furlongs. I’ll toss #2 Gigante and #8 Tee At One and accept equal coverage with the rest in a race that won’t produce a big price, but hopefully something mid-range. The value plays could be #4 Mo Stash and #5 Northern Invader given the presence of bigger-profile barns like Appleby, Motion and Pletcher with others. #7 More Than Looks is cross-entered at Saratoga and could scratch, reducing the ticket by one.
Colonial Downs | Race 9 | Beverly D. Stakes
#1 Fev Rover (2-1 ML favorite) and #5 Didia (3-1 ML) stand out in this field of 7, though it’s never easy to toss Chad Brown, who has #6 Gina Romantica (5-1 ML), in a F&M Turf division showcase. #5 Didia comes in fresher than #1 Fev Rover, the latter running a very hard third in the Diana at Saratoga against tougher competition last time. You could certainly argue to use both of the chalks, but my strategy is almost always to single in these either-or spots if you can discern between them. Give me #5 Didia.
Colonial Downs | Race 10 | Arlington Million
An 11-runner Arlington Million comes down to a trio for me. #4 Atone (7-2 ML favorite) should get a good trip from his post and near the front throughout. But it’s #6 Master Piece (12-1 ML) that I like most in a second-time Rick Dutrow situation, similar to White Abarrio’s rapid ascension last week in the Grade 1 Whitney. I’ll also include 4-time Million winner Chad Brown’s comebacker #9 Adhamo (10-1 ML), who is placed aggressively while working well and securing Flavien Prat.
Colonial Downs | Race 11 | allowance
In an entry-level allowance projected for a very hot pace, I’ll take 4 closers to finish out the sequence. #1 Cha Cha Mission (20-1 ML) could be sneaky here for move-up trainer Brittany Russell, who takes over for the first time and gets strong local pilot Jevian Toledo. #4 Watch This Birdie (5-1 ML) didn’t get any pace help last time when still breaking her maiden over the Colonial course. #8 Galilei (6-1 ML) reps the always-potent local combo of Horacio Karamanos-Mike Trombetta and exits a VA-bred stakes win. #11 Fish Mooney (5-1 ML) travels similarly over just about any footing, is 8-for-16 in the exacta lifetime, and should handle Colonial fine for a Casse barn having a big meet.
The Tickets
Pick 5 (Race 7): 1 with 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 with 1,4,8,11 = $36 for $.50 play
Pick 4 (Race 8): 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 with 1,4,8,11 = $36 for $.50 play
Pick 3 (Race 8): 1,3,4,5,6,7 with 5 with 6,9,4 = $9 for $.50 play
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