Friday's Day 2 of the Saratoga summer season boasts a pick 6 carryover of $116,882 that gets underway in Race 5. First post will be 1:10 pm ET with the pick 6 slated to start around 3:32 pm ET. The Spa pick 6 is a $1 minimum play and not a jackpot wager, producing traditional pick 6 payouts for 6 of 6.
Race 5
A full field of $20,000 claiming dirt sprinters open the sequence. Massive class droppers abound as is often the case at Saratoga where purses are high ($50K for $20K claimers) and connections want to get their pictures taken in exchange for the likelihood of being claimed. That’s why favorites are a strong 43% the past 3 years at the Spa in dirt claimers. Playing it close to the vest may not be a bad way to go when many will be spreading defensively in hopes of not being knocked out in the first leg.
Race 6
Two-year-old maiden special weight dashers go 5-1/2 furlongs on the dirt in another full field. Of the 32 such races at the Spa the last 3 summers (2YO, MSW, 5.5F dirt), no winner has topped $18 and the average winner has been 3-1 odds. But favorites are just 27% winners, so you don’t have to settle. Consider a couple of logical options. First-time starters have won two-thirds of these races (dominating the entry box) with a slightly higher overall win percentage than experienced horses. Strong State did win here opening day in a similar spot with a Churchill start under his belt, similar to 3-Concrete Cruiser.
Race 7
A capacity lineup of starter/optional claimer turf routers match up in the third leg. A 4-1 morning line favorite indicates the wide-open nature of this one. These conditions fit more into the claiming consideration and when you see the average Saratoga turf route claiming winner at nearly 7-1 odds over the past 3 summers, this is a place to shop for prices. Note trainer Mertkan Kantarmaci has a sharp 9: 3-0-3 record in these kind of turf route claimers in recent Spa seasons (at average odds nearly 17-1, no less) and sends out both 10-Drunk on Sake (12-1 ML) and 12-Front Man (10-1 ML).
Race 8
The sequence’s most-narrow field of 7 convenes for the Wilton Stakes at 1 mile on dirt. Given the field size, expect the majority of players to seek to shrink their tickets in this spot. Tarabi and Randomized have delivered as short-priced favorites the past 2 years in the Wilton. This one figures to run through recent Churchill winners 1-Miss Justify for Todd Pletcher and 6-Bell’s Beach for Chad Brown. Heard of those guys at Saratoga? Irad Ortiz Jr. wins a razor-sharp 32% (nearly 50% in exacta) in these mile races at the Spa that start with the unique elbow configuration. He rode both of these last time and opts for 6-Bells Beach.
Race 9
The co-featured Coronation Cup has a full field of turf sprinters entered, restricted to 10 starters. 10-Star of Mystery is the heaviest favorite in the pick 6, based on the morning line, at 8-5. The chalk has hit 40% in Spa turf sprint stakes in recent summers, well above the 32% win rate in turf sprints below the stakes ranks. But note since the start of the ’23 Spa season, Charlie Appleby’s runners are 1-9 on turf at Saratoga (including the Belmont Stakes Festival last month), including Star of Mystery’s third in the Grade 1 Jaipur. Post 10 has accounted for only 3 of 78 winners with 10 or more starters in Saratoga turf sprints in recent years. Strategy here would be to try and beat the favorite who will be overbet in the pick 6, in some part due to the short morning line price. Brad Cox has won this Coronation Cup twice in the last 5 years and has 6-Ever So Sweet as a top alternative.
Race 10
A capacity field of maiden claiming turf routers anchor the pick 6. Favorites have won only 26% of turf route MCL races at the Spa in the past 3 years with an average winner 7-1 odds. Horses dropping out of MSW races win 12% and those exiting MCL races win 11%, so there’s not much advantage to the class droppers. Chad Brown (9 wins, 27%) has had a bit more success on this move than Todd Pletcher (7 wins, 21%) and they’ll be prominent in the betting with 1-Torpedo Run and 8-Adventurous Spirit. If not them, the value play could lie with the returning MCL runners.
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