Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6. For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
Santa Anita Race 1: Post: 12:30PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Mutaz; 4-Cuban Connection
Backups: 9-Broski.
Forecast: Mutaz is improving with racing and looks ready to step forward again and graduate in this moderate maiden special weight turf miler for older horses. The son of Nyquist shortens to a mile – he’s probably better suited for this trip – and seems the solid choice. Cuban Connection has rising numbers and figures in the fray once again, although having been beaten three straight times as the favorite at this level makes the English-bred gelding hard to trust.
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Santa Anita Race 2: Post: 1:30PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Atomic Drop
Backups: 6-Druidic.
Forecast: Atomic Drop aired by 10 lengths two races back but was wheeled back in six days by his new connections off the claim and bounced to the moon when fourth at 3/5 at this starter optional claiming level last month. With about a month of rest this time, the veteran gelding should return to winning form in a main track miler that projects to have just a moderate early pace, but at 7/5 on the morning line there won’t be much wagering value available.
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Santa Anita Race 3: Post: 2:00PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-Step It Out (Ire)
Backups: none.
Forecast: Step It Out (Ire), first off a $25,000 claim by an outfit that does well with this angle, found nine furlongs out of her range and weakened to finish off the board as the odds-on favorite last month but back at the same level and shortening to a mile should allow this Irish-bred filly to regain her best form. She projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip and have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on.
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Santa Anita Race 4: Post: 2:02PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 7-Eastwick; 3-Lady Rider.
Backups: 5-Double Cappuccino.
Forecast: Here’s an open fray that should be treated with some caution. Eastwick clearly is being culled by the stable. The daughter of Ghostzapper nosedives into a low level maiden claimer for the first time and may have found her proper level. Her numbers aren’t terrible and a little will go a long way against this group. Lady Rider showed some spark when second in this league last month and with only slight improvement should be the one to fear most.
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Santa Anita Race 5: Post: 2:34PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 6-Word Play
Backups: 7-Notime for Squalls.
Forecast: Word Play just fell short in a similar starter optional claimer over this course and distance last month despite striking the front and looking like the winner 70 yards from the wire. She’s 6/5 on the morning line to make amends today and might even go lower. She’s a logical top pick but not one that you can do much with on the tote.
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Santa Anita Race 6: Post: 3:06PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 4-Actung Baby; 6-Pavlovian.
Backups: 9-Jalisco; 8-Stanford Dropout.
Forecast: Actung Baby hasn’t been asked to show his best speed in his morning trials but moves like a good athlete and may be a sneaky type for a barn that can be clever with debut runners. In a grab bag for state-bred juveniles, the son of Pavel may be worth a gamble. Pavlovian has the benefit of a prior outing and displayed good ability when second in a similar affair last month. The D. O’Neill-trained colt shows a nice breeze since raced and is the likely choice and one to beat.
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Santa Anita Race 7: Post: 3:36PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Eternal Reign; 10-Ariri (GB),
Backups: 2-Valkyrian (Ire).
Forecast: Eternal Reign was overmatched in the Royal Heroine S.-G3 in her most recent outing in April but isn’t today. The Irish-bred filly gets a major jockey upgrade to J. Hernandez and will greatly appreciate the return to the first level allowance ranks for the red hot P. D’Amato barn. Ariri (GB) makes her U.S. debut after winning her only start stylishly over the all-weather surface at Wolverhampton in England last summer. She has top class connections, a work tab that should have her fit and ready and might be a very nice type.
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Santa Anita Race 8: Post: 4:06PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 2-No Joke Antares; 8-Arkadelphia.
Backups: 10-Hero Or Zero.
Forecast: No Joke Antares has trained like a colt with good ability and looks like a live item in this split of the sixth race, a state-bred dash for juveniles. He’s a nicely pedigreed home bred colt by win-early sire Practical Joke, so he has every right to be competitive first time out at a decent price. Arkadelphia was a respectable third a stakes turf sprint Florida in his debut last month. That bit of experience should do him well in a race in which the main players are first timers.
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Santa Anita Race 9: Post: 4:38PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Nitti (Ire); 7-Divin Propos (Fr).
Backups: 4-Maltese Falcon (Ire).
Forecast: Nitti (Ire) is acclimating nicely and strikes us a true marathon type. Fresh from a career top win against middle distance allowance types over the local lawn, the Irish-bred gelding is tackling much tougher foes in this year’s renewal of the San Juan Capistrano S.-G3 but offers intriguing value at or near his morning line of 12-1. He’ll need to step forward but we’re expecting he will. Divin Propos (Fr) has been facing stronger competition than he’s seeing today and should love the trip. From a red hot stable and with winning form over the local lawn, the French import is strictly the one to beat.
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Santa Anita Race 10: Post: 5:08PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 7-Indispensable; 6-Varney.
Backups: 2-Pony Express.
Forecast: Indispensable exits a series of stakes races and will appreciate this return to the first level allowance ranks in his first outing since November. The workouts indicate fitness for a barn that has strong stats with comebackers. On pure numbers from his sophomore season the son of Constitution should outclass this field. Varney is developing nicely for B. Baffert and looked quite good beating a much lesser maiden field at Pimlico last month. He should continue to improve with experience and remains well regarded.
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Santa Anita Race 11: Post: 5:38PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Beef Winslow
Backups: 2-Daniel’s Hope.
Forecast: Beef Winslow was a thoroughly convincing winning under these conditions last month and there’s no reason he can’t do it again. His second flight, stalking style makes him perfectly suited for the Hillside Course and this low profile jockey clearly gets good run out of him. There’s wagering value at or near his 5/2 morning line if you can get it.
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Santa Anita Race 12: Post: 6:08PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 12-Young Love 7-Godavri; 6-Lavender Love.
Backups: 5-Penny Worth.
Forecast: Here’s messy maiden turf sprint to close out the meeting. Young Love returns with J. Hernandez, who rode her in her only outing exactly a year ago when the daughter of Grazen, despite being strongly backed on the tote, finished far back on dirt before being stopped on. Sprinting on turf, we are going to assume that she’ll show her true ability this time around. The work tab at San Luis Rey Downs is sneaky good, so at 10-1 on the morning line there may be a major gamble to be had. Godavri is improving with racing and based on her good runner-up effort under these conditions in her recent comeback the D. Blacker-trained daughter of Om is fairly solid. Lavender Love is a first timer from the R. Baltas barn with a series of workouts that are fairly impressive on paper. We have no video – she’s been at San Luis Rey Downs – but like our top pick is a daughter of Grazen and therefore eligible to be pretty quick.
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