Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: XZ
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Pass/No Play
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The Wednesday opener is carded for hurdlers. We will pass the first race.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Perfect Munnings
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Perfect Munnings exits a series of state-bred stakes races and shows up for the first time in a $25,000 seller. Now in the Linda Rice barn, the son of Munnings is a stakes winner and multiple stakes placed in an 11 race career that has produced four wins and earnings of more than $280,000, but today is being tossed away in the trash heap as if to indicate his racing days might be numbered. He’ll beat this field if he has at least one good one left and if he can pass the morning vet exam. At even money on the morning line, he’ll offer no wagering value, so this might be another race that is best left alone.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:19 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Bring Me a Check; 3-High Front
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Bring Me a Check is a genuine and consistent turf sprinter now in the Patrick Reynolds barn following an $80,000 claim out of a third place finish (beaten a head) over this course and distance last month. The veteran gelding employs an ideal stalking style that should provide him with every chance to seal the deal in the final furlong in this three-other-than-affair that contains several professional, tough as nails runners. Tyler Gaffalione stays aboard for a trainer who generally does well with the first-off-the-claim angle, so at 9/2 on the morning line the son of Fast Anna gets a slight edge on top. High Front invades from Minnesota following a swift stakes score sprinting on grass that produced a career top number. In the frame in six of seven career starts, the son of Summer Front moves to the Christophe Clement barn for his Saratoga debut and with another forward move could be quite capable of handling this tougher assignment. He’s a versatile type that can win on the front end or from off the pace, so Irad Ortiz, Jr. can access the pace flow and then choose his strategy. At 2-1 on the morning line, the 4-year-old gelding is the likely choice and one to beat.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Slapintheface; 1-Mission Hill
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Slapintheface produced a significant forward move when second at 15-1 in a maiden turf router at Belmont Park in his second career start. Almost three months since that outing, the son of Oscar Performance closed against slow splits to be beaten less than a length, and with another bit of improvement today the Anthony Dutrow-trained gelding should be able to earn his diploma. Mission Hill lands the good rail and is guaranteed an ideal ground saving, trouble-free trip. Like our top pick, he displayed improvement in his second career start when a solid runner-up in an off-the-turfer here last month, and if he can step forward again on grass the son of Street Boss should have a say in the matter. However, based on speed figures, he’s got some catching up to do to outrun our top pick.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Red Moon; 1-April Antics
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Charge Nurse.
Forecast: Red Moon exits a couple of New York stallion series stakes races on grass, most recently a distant fourth as the favorite over the local lawn last month. She drops into the allowance ranks, switches to dirt, and seems sure to improve under these conditions. She lacks tactical speed but should be able to produce enough of a late kick to tag the leaders close home. April Antics is just 2-for-25 in her career but has hit the board on 12 occasions so she at least figures for a piece of it. The daughter of Emcee has recent numbers that are reasonably competitive and has won or placed in each of her six starts. Toss her in somewhere.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Mischief Joke; 8-B D Saints
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Benzodini.
Forecast: Mischief Joke has finished in the money in all four career starts and quite simply is overdue for a win. The son of Practical Joke has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, shows gradually improving speed figures, and switches to Irad Ortiz, Jr., though at 9/5 on the morning line and liable to go lower there won’t be a lot of wagering value to be found. B D Saints is intriguing and is most likely the one to beat. He shows the route-to-sprint and turf-to-dirt angles, is re-equipped with blinkers, and retains Flavian Prat after encountering what the DRF chart referred to as an “horrific journey” when fourth last time out. He’s relatively slow on numbers but seems certain to be better than shown, so we’ll include him on our ticket.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Pioneering Spirit; 8-Sy Dog
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Burning Bright; 6-Tawny Port.
Forecast: Pioneering Spirit has suddenly turned into a win machine for trainer Linda Rice and appears reasonably spotted to extend his streak to five in this year’s renewal of the John’s Call Stakes over the marathon distance of a mile and five eighths. The son of American Pharoah just won an 11 furlong affair over the local lawn in thoroughly convincing fashion while giving an indication that today’s longer trip won’t be any issue at all. He’s listed at 5/2 on the morning line and would offer good value at that price if you can get it. Sy Dog will be trying a marathon trip for the first time and probably will enjoy this type of race. Lightly raced with just eight career starts, the Irish-bred colt has solid middle distance speed figures and a one-paced grinding style that should work well under these conditions.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Rockstar Red; 11-Strapped; 10-Mufrih
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Rockstar Red was a distant third when facing tougher maiden $75,000 foes in an off-the-turf, sloppy track affair last month and returns to his claim level today in his second outing since being haltered by Linda Rice. Flavian Prat stays aboard, and against this group the son of Frosted should be capable of producing the last run. His morning line of 7/2 seems reasonable. Strapped tries grass for the first timed, and as a son of Candy Ride should handle the surface switch just fine. This will be his first start for a tag, and on pure numbers the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has a reasonable look. Mufrih is a South Florida invader in the Saffie Joseph, Jr. barn with form at Gulfstream Park that charts well with these. The son of Kitten’s Joy is making his third start since being claimed for $25,000 and remains above his purchase price in a sign of confidence.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Radio Red; 1-Straight Arrow; 4-Aggregation
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Amundson.
Forecast: Radio Red, freshened since May, returns in this state bred, second level allowance extended sprint with numbers than can win and recent workouts that should have him plenty fit. He won off a similar layoff two runs back with a career top speed figure, one that if repeated today surely would make him hard to beat. The Danny Gargan-trained sophomore retains Joe Rosario and employs a stalking style that is ideally suited for this seven furlong distance. Straight Arrow moves up a notch after winning over this track and distance earlier this month with career top speed figure. He has displayed improvement in each of his three starts and certainly can be expected to step forward again. With a trouble free trip from the rail, the Arrogate gelding should be right there at 8-1 on the morning line. Aggregation makes his first start start in more than three months. The Chad Brown-trained first time gelding could easily be a better type this time around and broke his maiden at this distance by more than six lengths last year.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 11-Accept the Outcome; 8-Negra Gata
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Love Miami Love.
Forecast: Accept the Outcome, freshened since mid-June, returns for a tag today and looks to have found her friends. The Chad Brown-trained daughter of No Nay Never brough more than $233,000 overseas as a yearling but in just her fourth career start she is being culled from the stable after failing to live up to expectations. On numbers, she’s better than these, so let’s put the Chad Brown-trained filly on top and hope to get close to her morning line of 7/2. Negra Gata is another dropping into a seller for the first time with every right to improve. A decent runner-up at Laurel Park in her last outing, the Tale of the Cat filly should be within striking range throughout.
*
.svg){kind=logo}
