Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-B D Saints; 3-Cold Plunge
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Get Spooled; 5-Dancing Mischief
Forecast: There are many question marks and unknowns for the player to deal with in the Thursday opener, a maiden special weight turf route for New York-bred juveniles. Tread lightly. B D Saints has the benefit of a prior run, removes blinkers, and goes for a barn whose maidens usually improve with experience. The Ellis Park shipper seems as good as any. Cold Plunge from Delaware Park for a barn that does with debut runners and as a son of Point of Entry certainly is bred for grass. With the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr. in the saddle, he could turn up a live item.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Union Lights; 4-Invisible War
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Union Lights has solid recent numbers and takes a logical class drop to the restricted (nw-3) $16,000 level that looks like a winning move. He’s been a bit of a money burner of later but his last outing, a good runner-up while well clear of the rest, may be good enough to win if repeated today. Invasion War drops below his claim level, adds blinkers, and has several back speed figures that are better than par for this level. He lacks a true style – he’s not a speed horse and not really a closer, either – but against this group he’s a major player.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Implementation; 1a-Inevtabl Connection
Backups/savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: Implementation is a first-off-the-($30,000) claim play for Saffie Joseph, Jr. (strong 21% with this angle) and, in a sign of confidence, is protected in starter’s allowance company in his first outing since April. The son of Constitution seeks his third straight and score and has numbers that are good enough to extend the streak. As a prototype late running sprinter with a prior win over this six and one-half furlong trip, he should have every chance to produce a winning late kick. Inevtabl Connection might find this extended sprint distance a bit taxing but if he can shake loose early from his comfortable outside post under Irad Ortiz, Jr., the son of Connect could be hard to catch.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Its Cold in Dehere; 5-Run Devil
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Its Cold in Dehere drops from $20,000 to $12,500 in his first start off a Linda Rice claim – you see that a lot – so the question isn’t whether she’s good enough to win, but rather if she’s sound enough to pass the morning vet check (you see that a lot, too). First or second in21 of 44 career starts, she’ll be hard to beat if feeling up to it. Run Devil is another huge class drop – she’s plummeting from the $40,000 ranks after being haltered for $20,000 two races back – and is another whose current condition must be questioned, but not her ability to win at this level based on her previous form. Clearly, this is a race to treat with caution.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Timbuktu; 5-Gem Mint Ten; 9-One Headlight.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: Timbuktu looked sharp winning a starters allowance $50,000 affair at Belmont Park last month while earning a career top speed figures and a repeat of that outing today makes him tough right back in this state-bred first level allowance turf router. The son of Munnings shows a prior win over local lawn and projects to enjoy a comfortable second flight, ground saving trip from his favorable rail draw. Gem Mint Ten is a fit on numbers and will appreciate this class drop from state-bred stakes company and the stretch out in trip. One Headlight is lightly raced and improving and never worse than second in three career starts. He’s stepping up from a maiden win but has plenty of room for further improvement and given his connections is sure to receive plenty of play.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Destiny Star; 1-Khozy Colby; 10-Tempting Lady
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Hidden Class.
Forecast: This maiden special weight sprint for juvenile state-bred fillies is a typical grass grab bag with several first timers that are almost impossible to classify. Best advice is to include as many as your budget allows in rolling exotic play. Destiny Star, from the first crop of Catholic Boy, appears to have done some good working leading up to her racing debut and seems as good as any. Bred for grass on both sides of her pedigree, she hails from a barn that has competent stats with debut runners and a series of solid workout that should have her plenty fit. Khozy Colby has the benefit of two solid efforts under her belt, both good runner-up efforts on dirt – and if she can duplicate either one of those races on grass the daughter of Khozan will be quite formidable. Tempting Lady okay breezing a furlong in :10 2/5 at the Timonium Sale and seems better than her 15-1 morning line might indicate. She’s a price chance worth tossing in.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-I’mhavingamoment; 7-Tempermental
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Security Code.
Forecast: I’mhavingamoment earned a career top figure when beating non-winners of two allowance state bred competition at Belmont Park last month in clever fashion and moves into the second level allowance ranks with a second flight, stalking style that works well at this extended sprint distance. A bullet half mile drill since raced (:47 4/5, fastest of 63) indicates that further improvement is likely, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll put her on top. Tempermental, a $32,000 Chris Englehart claim (a strong 21% with this angle), switches to the main track and won his most recent dirt start back in March. She has numbers that fit and should be heard from in the final furlong.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Pipeline
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Pipeline makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Mile at Keeneland last November and will greatly appreciate the softer assignment (no Cody’s Wish) in this second level allowance main track miler. In the frame in all three of his previous starts over the Saratoga main track, the lightly raced 5-year-old son of Speightstown shows a relatively light recent work tab but hails from a barn that is lethal with comebackers (30%) and simply should outclass this field. However, at 3/5 on the morning line, there’s little wagering value to be found.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-War Like Goddess
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: War Like Goddess was victimized by a poor trip and creepy-crawler pace and never was a factor at 3/5 in the New York Stakes-G1 at Belmont Park in early June. Toss the race out. The high class daughter of English Channel, a winner of three of four races over the Saratoga lawn including the past two editions of the Glens Falls Stakes-G1, is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and should be along in plenty of time with anything remotely close to her best race. She is the 3/5 morning line favorite and looks it on paper.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Sinaloa
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’re going to give Sinaloa one more chance after the Linda Rice-trained gelding failed to land a blow when well-backed in an off-the-turf sprint at this level two weeks ago. He’s a late runner with some ability and should show his best stuff under these conditions. He gets Irad Ortiz, Jr., and blinkers, so there should be no excuses today. War Prince turns back to a sprint and may be most comfortable at this trip. Freshened since early June, the son of War Dancer will be doing his best work late and offers some value at 6-1 on the morning line.
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