Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: C
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Alterina; 5-Cause I’m Elegant; 4-Strange Fruit
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This maiden claiming main track miler for older distaffers is borderline inscrutable. We’ll go three-deep without any strong conviction. Alterina is less exposed than the other main players and therefore rates top billing. The Mark Hennig-trained daughter of Alternation finished a non-threatening sixth after a slow break sprinting on grass at Belmont Park in June in her debut and today takes a slight drop in class while switching to the main track, over which she is bred to move up on. She’s competitive on speed figures and is listed at 9/2 on the morning line, which seems reasonable. Cause I’m Elegant woke up with an improved effort when second by a neck against this group last time out, leaving her previous form far behind. If she can turn in two alike, she can be a threat right back. Strange Fruit finished fourth against similar bottom-rung foes here two weeks ago and today stretches out to a mile. She won’t need to improve much to at least get a piece of it.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): Detective Tom
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Instamatic; 10-Patronage.
Forecast: Detective Tom has trained well enough to win at first asking in this modest state-bred maiden turf sprint for juveniles, and in a race begging to be won by a fresh face the son of The Factor seems like a logical top pick. A gate work on August 18 was visually pleasing in his first local move since vanning up from Belmont Park, so based on that one piece of video we’ll throw our support his way. At 3-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and strong push in the various rolling exotics.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Kuramata; 3-Easter.
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Kuramata has consistent recent form and should fire another big shot in this nine furlong grass affair for three-other-than allowance older horses. In the frame in his last four and most recent a game second (well clear of the rest) in a similar affair here last month, the Chad Brown-trained import is reunited with “win rider” Irad Ortiz, Jr. and projects to settle into a soft, second flight, stalking position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. His morning line of 3-1 seems about right. Easter, third in the same race our top pick exits, has won two of his last four starts and looks very much like the most dangerous of the closers.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Complete Agenda; 3-Classic Mark
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Complete Agenda has gone winless in his last six starts so this sharp drop in class to the $25,000 claiming level is warranted. He’s a one-paced grinder with numbers sufficient to win and with Javier Castellano remaining aboard we suspect he’s physically fine. However, at 9/5 on the morning line there’s really not much value to be found. Classic Mark is a fit on figures and is fresh from a nice tally in a starter’s allowance $50,000 affair over a wet track at Belmont Park in early July. It’s possible (maybe probable) that the off track moved him up, and this drop in class below his claim level would appear to indicate that his connections are of that thinking. Tread lightly here.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Lady Arwen; 7-Mastery’s Secret
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Lady Arwen was a beaten choice in her debut when facing similar maiden special weight state-bred juvenile fillies last month, but a slow break provides for a legitimate excuse, so we’ll give her another chance in this seven furlong affair. The daughter of Audible moved up to press the issue but paid the price late and wound up a weakening fifth in a race that she had a right to need. With a clean start today, she’ll have no excuses. Mastery’s Secret is a first timer with a :47 2/5 gate breeze in early July at Belmont Park that indicates she may have some ability. She’s comfortably drawn outside and is worth tossing in on your ticket at 15-1 on the morning line.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Sousa Summer; 6-Senbel; 2-Artemus Citylimits
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Into the Sunrise; 9-Fauci.
Forecast: Sosua Summer earned a career top speed figure when winning a first level allowance turf sprint over this course and distance last month and today moves up a notch in class for a repeat score that should be within his range. The Bill Mott-trained colt likes to settle in mid pack and then kick home, and probably will need to improve a bit to successfully handle the class hike with hiswinning pilot jumping off to ride Senbel, who was beaten a neck at this level in his most recent outing last month at Belmont Park and has numbers that are equal to or maybe slightly exceed what ‘Summer has earned. Artemus Citylimits has gone through a rough stretch in below standard performances while facing tougher stakes quality fields. Freshened since June and taking a realistic class drop, the Michael Maker-trained gelding is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga lawn and could regain his winning form at this level after a couple of months of R & R.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Bustin Bay
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 6-Sweet Mystery.
Forecast: Bustin Bay has won half of her six starts on dirt at Saratoga and has never been sharper while seeking her fourth victory in his last five outings. The Linda Rice-trained mare lands the good rail and projects to be on or near the lead throughout in this state-bred, second level allowance optional claiming miler. She returns to her claim level (and logical move) and catches a favorable pace scenario, but at even money on the morning line probably will be too short of a price to play, other than as a no value rolling exotic single.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Vitaemi
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Meravgilioso.
Forecast: Vitaemi goes from the rail to the outside in this $20,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares and the better draw should allow the veteran mare to enjoy an ideal pace stalking/pressing trip. She paid the price when forced into a torrid pace last time out but can dictate the race flow today and employ stalk and pounce tactics, which should allow her to complete the deal.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Technical Analysis; 2-Consumer Spending; 1-Jumbly
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Surprisingly.
Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown will saddle four of the nine intended starters in this year’s edition of the Ballston Spa Stakes for fillies and mares, and a legitimate case could be made for each one. Technical Analysis, a seven time winner from 14 starts, was quite sharp in victory when winning the De La Rose Stakes earlier this month with a gate-to-wire trip but will be facing more speed today and likely will need to utilize stalk and pounce tactics. She’s won doing that in the past but is clearly most dangerous when she’s the controlling speed. Consumer Spending is a bit more versatile but isn’t as fast on numbers as ‘Analysis. She’ll need a career top performance today and could easily produce it. Jumbly is the wild card from England. A multiple stakes winner as a 3-year-old, she’s winless in two starts this year but may simply be rounding into form for trainer Joseph O’Brien and her Timeform Ratings are strong. You have to use her.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-War Officer; 9-Toofareastiswest; 8-Dr Kringle
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: War Officer was off slowly and hated the ground when debuting in an off-the-turf maiden miler here last month. The son of War Front (hopefully) gets his chance on grass this time and we’re expecting the Todd Pletcher-trained colt to step forward in a big way. Irad Ortiz, Jr., who took care of him after a poor start that cost him valuable position, rides him back. Today we’ll find out what he can do. Toofareastiswest has speed figures in four starts at this level that makes him a contender, though he’s a bit too much of a grinder to be trustworthy. His outside draw is no bargain, either, but he still projects as a reasonable contender, all things being considered. Dr Kringle switches to Flavian Prat and has numbers that fit, even though he is exiting a high priced maiden claimer.
*
.svg){kind=logo}
