Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Weigh the Risks
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Weigh the Risks was scratched recently from an off-the-turf maiden event so she makes her debut today in this middle distance inner grass course affair for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Mendelssohn has done everything in the morning like a quality prospect - View Workout - and should be fit and ready for a major effort in this contentious affair that contains several nice prospects. The Chad Brown barn hits at a powerful 24% with first time starters, so with Irad Ortiz, Jr., taking the call and at 7/2 on the morning line she’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:46 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Ways and Means; 7-Bento; 8-Managing Mischief
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ways and Means has been fairly impressive in her preparation leading up to her debut and this daughter of Practical Joke looks live and extremely well meant in her debut. She’s a quick actioned, athletic juvenile filly and really caught the eye in a recent training track breeze - View Workout - in which she came the final quarter mile on our watches in :23 4/5 without being asked. The Chad Brown-trained filly is a half-sister to stakes winners Highly Motivated and Surge Capacity and looks the part of a real good prospect. Bento is a first timer by Tapit from a graded stakes winning, graded stakes producing mare and was pleasing in a sharp local gate breeze - View Workout - last month. A $600,000 yearling purchase, the Mark Casse-trained filly should be fit enough to be competitive and definitely is worth including on your ticket. Managing Mischief has a nice gate breeze last week - View Workout that gave indication of some talent. From the first crop of the promising Into Mischief stallion Maximus Mischief, she’s a half-sister to the quick sprinter Static Fire and may be better than her morning line of 8-1 gives her credit for.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Shinfull; 3-U Should B Dancing; 4-Miss Domina
Backups/savers/Underneath: 2-Chromeplated Heart.
Forecast: Here’s a grass grab bag that requires considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. Shinfull makes a trainer change to Linda Rice and surfaces in a restricted (nw-3 turf sprint claimer for fillies and mares, so we’ll operate under the assumption that the New York-bred filly is set to produce a significant forward move. She’s run well over this course and distance in the past and switches to Jose Ortiz, positive factors that are reflected in her 3-1 morning line. She projects to be within striking range throughout and have her chance to tag the leaders close home. U Should Be Dancing is another dangerous class dropper that should improve against this level of competition. She generally prefers to finish second or third (9 times) rather than win (twice) but with some help up front she should make an impact in the final furlong. Miss Domina was overmatched when facing allowance foes last month but should go much better in this league. She has excellent previous form at the Spa and certainly has a right to be a player with this group.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Ever Summer; 5-Myriskyaffair; 1-Frivole
Backups/Savers/Underneath:
Forecast: Ever Summer was tagged right near the wire when second at 21-1 in a Grade 3 stakes at the mini-marathon 11 furlong distance at Delaware Park last time in a career top performance. Previously, she won a first level allowance event at this trip at Belmont Park and clearly has established herself as a prototype marathoner. She returns to the allowance ranks and offers an attractive wager at 4-1 on the morning line. Her uncoupled Christophe Clement-trained stablemate b>Myriskyaffair has beaten ‘Summer in the past and based on her current consistent form has a solid chance to do it again. She’s especially dangerous on the front end and could take this field a very long way if not respected. Frivole won her U.S. debut at Churchill Downs in promising fashion but then was disappointing when flattening out to wind up seventh as the favorite in her most recent appearance at this level at Delaware Park. Perhaps the soft condition of the course can be blamed, so let’s give the Graham Motion-trained French-bred filly another chance.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Souper Catch; 5-Sprinklehead; 3-Higher Quality.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Souper Catch finished a game second in a $10,000 seller over this track and distance last month and from his rail draw probably will be sent to establish the lead. He’s an admirable old timer with 17 career wins but his recent speed figures are just moderate. Maybe his winning spirit can carry him through. Sprinklehead may be a bit quicker than ‘Catch and if he can make the running he could get brave and never look back. A repeat of his race before last (or the one before that) could be good enough. Higher Quality was a voided claim for $16,000 two races back and completely overmatched in the Monmouth Cup-Ge3 (beaten 22 lengths) last time out. He has races that can win at this level, but his low percentage connections are hard to have confidence in.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Gypsy Tales 9-Before You Go Go
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Gypsy Tales missed by a nose in her debut at Ellis Park last month but earned a huge figure in defeat while winding up nine lengths clear of the third place finish. The Steve Asmussen-trained daughter of Munnings returns in four weeks showing three nice breezes over the Saratoga training track, so we’re expecting a similar performance if not better in this maiden juvenile sprint. It should take a pretty nice filly to beat her. Before You Go Go is bred to win right now (Mtole) and brought $310,000 at the Timonium May Sale after she impressed breezing a furlong in a swift :10 1/5. She also caught the eye in team gate drill last week - View Workout - and from her cozy outside draw could pop the gate and display dangerous early speed. Listed at 3-1 on the morning line, the Todd Pletcher-trained filly is a “must use” and the one to fear most.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Addressable Market; 9-It Wasn’t Me; 5-Get Respect
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Addressable Market< was beaten as the choice in a similar maiden $40,000 claiming turf router in mid-May, but she earned a career top number in her third career start and could produce another significant forward move after her nearly three month vacation. Her inside draw guarantees and second flight, ground saving trip, so in a soft affair we’ll prefer the Chad Brown-trained Irish-bred on top. It Wasn’t Me shows up in a seller after finishing a distant second in a maiden special weight affair at Horseshoe Indianapolis. On pure numbers, this is where she fits, and with just two starts on her resume the daughter of Blame has room to step forward. Get Respect stretches out in her second start off a layoff and is another trying maiden claimers for the first time. We like the blinkers off angle and suspect this Barclay Tagg-trained filly with employ gate to wire tactics.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Here U Come Again; 9-Copper Em
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Brightwork.
Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Adirondack S.-G3 for juvenile fillies may boil down to a pair of very impressive Ellis Park debut winners. Here U Come Again showed speed and class in her highly rated five furlong score last month, pressing the pace and then producing a strong second move when straightened for home to win with authority and with plenty left. Since arriving at the Spa, the Brad Cox-trained daughter of Liam’s Map has been impressive in the morning - View Workout - and should thoroughly enjoy this extended sprint distance. Copper Em left at nearly 16-1 in her debut at the Pea Patch in late June but blew away her rivals like an odds-on favorite. She also has looked very sharp in the a.m. since arriving at the Spa - View Workout - and actually may be a tad quicker than her chief rival. It may be significant, though, that Florent Geroux, who was aboard both fillies, opts for Here U Come Again.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Dontmesswithtess; 2-Ruda
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Pentagon.
Forecast: Dontmesswithtess may have moved too soon when worn down close home in a similar starter allowance turf router at Belmont Park last month, but she certainly ran a winning race in defeat after finishing early seven lengths clear of the rest. The Michael Maker-trained mare will get plenty of cover from her inside draw, and with a well-timed ride should be a major player late. The only concern is her dependability; she has failed to deliver the last four times she was sent to the post as the favorite. Ruda is lightly raced with room to improve and with numbers that put her in the hunt. The Monmouth Park shipper should be running on strongly late.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 8-Myles; 3-Forward Move; 2-Stow On the Wold
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Myles has improving numbers, and in just his fourth career start the Creative Cause gelding should be capable of stepping forward again in this maiden claiming turf router for New York-bred runners. Freshened since mid-May, the Christophe Clement-trained 4-year-old has good tactical speed to ensure a trouble-free trip, and while he’ll need improvement in the speed figure department we suspect he has more upside than the other main players. Forward Move finished a respectable third in his debut facing straight maidens but today drops in for a price, somewhat suspiciously so given that he was originally purchased for $225,000 as a yearling. Sounds like they’re giving up on him pretty quickly. Stow On the Wold is another showing up in a seller for the first time, but having finished off the board in four of his first five starts the class drop seems justified. On numbers, he’s right there with the rest of them.
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