Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Saratoga Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Stellamaris; 7-Clearly a Test
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Seven furlongs is a challenging distance for a first time starter but in a maiden special weight sprint for juveniles fillies that came up a bit light, Stellamaris may be able to win at first asking. From the first crop of Catalina Cruiser, she has been given a solid foundation of local workouts to be plenty fit and she has shown enough in her morning trials - view workout - to indicate a decent amount of ability. We’ll give her the edge on top over Clearly a Test, who has the benefit of a race over the track (a distant but okay fourth in a strong race) and seems sure to improve with experience and today’s extra furlong and one-half.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Sea Dancer; 2-Nikitis
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: This middle distance maiden turf event for juvenile fillies has at least two very nice prospects signed on. Sea Dancer was given a run sprinting at Belmont Park last month and did quite well to finish third (galloped out in front) without being knocked about while providing every indication that she’ll enjoy more distance. Today, she gets it. The daughter of Mastery had a recent main track breeze to tick her over and hails from a barn that has superior stats (24%) with the second time starter angle. The barn’s go-to rider takes the call, so at 9/2 on the morning line the Bill Morey-trained juvenile offers excellent wagering strategy in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Then there’s the first timer from Chad Brown’s barn, Nikitis. The daughter of Audible brought $535,000 at the OBS April Sale after breezing in :10 flat at the preview session (looked terrific) and then more than held her own in a team gate drill with Ways and Means - view workout - and was flattered when her workmate broke her maiden last week by more than 12 lengths at first asking.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Jemography; 1-Float On
Backups/savers/Underneath: 4-Scilly Cay.
Forecast: Jemography been freshened since February and returns waiver protected in this $32,000 claiming sprint for older horses. From a stable that sports solid stats (21%) with layoff runners, the veteran son of Big Brown has finished first or second in 22 of 22 career starts and has worked well enough at Belmont Park to be fit and ready. He’s most effective on or near the lead and catches what appears to be a very favorable pace scenario, so at 5-1 on the morning line we’ll put him on top. Float On joins the David Jacobson barn and picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr., so there is every expectation that this shipper from Parx will improve enough to be a solid fit at this level on this circuit. The Bluegrass Cat gelding always has been genuine and consistent (nine wins, in the frame in 25 of 37 career starts), so if he can avoid trouble from his rail draw we’re expecting him to offer a challenge at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): City Fever; Cigarette Boat; American Know How.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: City Fever, Cigarette Boat and American Know How finished heads apart when second, third, and fourth, respectively, in a similar sprint over this course and distance last month and are extremely difficult to separate again. It was ‘Fever’s racing debut (the other two had several prior runs) so it stands to reason that the son of City of Light has the most reason to improve. The Michael Trombetta-trained sophomore shows nice two nice breezes in the interim, retains Irad Ortiz, Jr., and likely will be closer to the pace this time after a rugged start last time out that found him well back in the pack during the early stages. Let’s give him the bulk of the play.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Operation Torch; 2-Clever Thought
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Operation Torch had the misfortune of facing subsequent Saratoga Derby Invitational winner Program Trading in a similar entry level allowance middle distance turf affair last time out and was no match while more than four lengths clear of the rest but won’t have that undefeated colt to worry about today and thus is listed as the 6/5 morning line favorite. The son of War Front has a good stalking style and should appreciate this nine furlong trip, so Shug’s colt looks very much like the winner but at a price that won’t offer any wagering value. Clever Thought has a reasonable chance to offer a challenge if his improving pattern continues. The son of Quality Road rallied against the grain to just miss in a similar affair at Belmont Park in early June and could produce another significant forward move today for trainer Todd Pletcher. Though lacking tactical speed, this promising sophomore can really turn it on late, so with a little help up front he could be tough to contain in the closing stages.
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RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Crazy Cami; 2-Zadorsky; 5-Echo Lake.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Shimmering Allure; 9-Lady Prospect.
Forecast: Here’s a borderline inscrutable maiden juvenile filly sprint that is restricted to those that brought $50,000 or less (or who RNA’d for that price) at auction. The first timers don’t particularly inspire but in a weak affair it would not be surprising to see one of them pop up and win it. Crazy Cami had a fair to moderate run when finishing a distant third in her debut last month and has every right to build on that effort today with the addition of blinkers. She’ll need to leave cleanly from the rail to avoid trouble,. Zadorsky displayed good ability when nosed out in her debut at Ellis Park (was six lengths clear of a next out winner) but then went backwards without an excuse to finish third (beaten nine lengths) as the favorite in her most recent outing. Will she bounce back today or regress again? Echo Lake is bred for much speed (Catalina Cruiser) and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr., so she may be the most intriguing of the newcomers. Best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Vittorio; 3-Khozeiress; 5-Looms Boldly
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll spread the seventh race, a seven furlong second-level allowance affair for fillies and mares. Vittorio shows a distinct edge in the speed figure department, so if he can avoid traffic trouble from the rail the Bill Mott-trained horse is logically the one to beat. The main issue is a series of hard, taxing races and a losing streak that dates back to December of 202. Khozeiress isn’t as fast on figures as Vittorio but he is lightly raced, consistent, and has plenty of room to improve. He’ll be taking on older horses for the first time after getting nosed out in the Carry Back Stakes at Gulfstream Park in June. The son of Khozan projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking trip and have every chance from there. Looms Boldly might be the quickest in the field, and if he can shake loose without pressure the son of Goldencents may get brave and keep on going, just as he did when dismantling a moderate field at Finger Lakes in late June. He’s probably a bit better than his 10-1 morning line indicates.
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RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Dreamlike; 7-Magic Tap
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Film Star.
Forecast: Dreamlike is a developing son of Gun Runner fresh from a dominating maiden score over this track and distance last month in his fourth career start. Third when beaten a head as a maiden in the Wood Memorial two races back, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt has numbers that have been consistently strong and should allow him to highly competitive on the raise in this first level allowance affair. Ellis Park shipper Magic Tap is strictly the one to beat most after missing by a head (five clear of the rest) at this distance and level last time out. He’s worked quite well since arriving at the Spa, so this Steve Asmussen-trained son of Tapit almost certainly will fire another big shot.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-He’smyhoneybadger; 1-H P Moon; 8-Candy Tycoon
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: He’smyhoneybadger is a solid and consistent older gelding with speed figures that are good enough to beat this field. The Tom Amoss-trained five-year-old finished far back in stronger race at Ellis Park in his most recent outing but is realistically dropped to the optional $62,500 claiming level today, shows three nice local workouts, and should bounce back in a big way after a six week vacation. The barn’s “go-to” rider Tyler Gaffalione takes the call. H P Moon, freshened since May, returns with a relatively brief work tab but if ready the Linda Rice-trained gelding should fit well with these. He’s lightly raced (just six starts) with plenty of room to improve, and with a clean break from the rail projects to be on or near the lead throughout. He’s still a by shy in the speed figure department but is certain to improve with experience and maturity. Candy Tycoon gets a major upgrade in trainer and is likely to improve, though he’ll have to. The Florida shipper picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. and is guaranteed a soft, second flight trip from his comfortable outside draw.
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RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Eye Witness; 4-Uncashed
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Eye Witness missed by a head in his debut last September has not lost since, reeling off three successive victories, most recently in Paradise Creek Stakes at Belmont Park in May. He’s back up to an abbreviated sprint in this year’s renewal of the Mahony Stakes, but the shortened journey and the projected much quicker early pace actually should benefit this prototype late-running grass sprinter. The Wesley Ward-trained son of City of Light retains Jose Ortiz and with a properly timed ride should be able to tag the leaders close home. At 9/2 on the morning line he’ll offer good value in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. Uncashed, a winner of five of six career outings including the sloppy track Quick Call Stakes last month, is easily the quickest in the field, and if he can produce his dirt form on turf, the son of Uncaptured may very well be long gone. At 3-1 on the morning line, you have to include him.
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