Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:40 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Modica; 7-Moonlight; 5-Frontline Warrior
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: The Saturday opener (early first post time at 12:40 ET) has several first timers that have credentials to be decent but it’s pretty much a grass grab bag, so a cautious approach is suggested. Modica acts like he has some ability, and as a son of Hard Spun certainly is bred to enjoy the grass. The work pattern appears healthy and most of the young stock from this barn run better than they breeze, so we suspect this colt will turn up a live item. Moonlight went a quarter mile in a swift :21 flat at the OBS April (changed leads late) but then appeared just okay in a local team breeze July 17 on the main track in :50.1b (rough changing leads). The female family for this son of Audible is nothing special, but this colt brought $285,00 through the ring so he’s obviously well-regarded. We’d include him in rolling exotic play but his morning line of 2-1 seems shorter than we’d prefer. Frontline Warrior is a debuting War Front colt for Shug and is worth tossing in somewhere. Most of his preparation came at Fair Hill but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him being competitive in an open fray.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:11 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 7-Flokie’s Flight
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Osbourne.
Forecast: Flokie’s Flight seeks his fourth straight score while moving up from starter’s allowance company. After earning a career top speed figure in his most recent win at Ellis Park last month, the Dale Romans-trained gelding should be quite competitive in this tougher spot in his first outing at the Spa. First or second in 10 of 13 career starts, the hard-hitting gelding lands the cozy outside post and can be a threat as the controlling speed or from a soft stalking position.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Luna Warrior
Backups/savers/Underneath: 11-War Terminator.
Forecast: Recent maiden claiming ($40,000) winner Luna Warrior shows steadily rising speed figures, so we’re expecting the son of War Front to fire another big shot in this restricted (nw-2) $35,000 claiming turf sprint. The Jose D’Angelo-trained 5-year-old has just seven lifetime starts so he has room for further improvement, and his ideal stalking style should put him in a position for a repeat score. At 3-1 on the morning line he offers a reasonable gamble in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:16 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Party At Grants; 3-Mooney Mooney
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none
Forecast: Party At Grants, a $30,000 Linda Rice claim in early May at Churchill Downs, makes her first start since on the raise (a positive sign), and while her numbers aren’t particularly fast, at least they are moving in the right direction. In a challenging maiden $40,000 claimer, she might be able to produce a winning late bid for her high percentage connections. Stable mate Mooney Mooney is another first-off-the-claim play for Rice (27%) and is wheeled back at the same level after missing at 4/5 at Belmont Park in late May. Away for a couple of months while showing a somewhat spotty work tab, the daughter of Ransom the Moon has plenty of zip, and for this hot stable her morning line of 6-1 is somewhat enticing. This is a difficult affair with several variables, question marks, and unknowns, so best advice is to tread lightly.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:46 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Sterling Silver
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Tizzy in the Sky; 4-Ontheonesandtwos.
Forecast: Sterling Silver returns to the allowance ranks after a pair of in-the-money finishes in New York-bred stakes company. Her last two starts earned strong speed figures, either of which if repeated would be good enough to win at this non-winners of three level. Beaten a neck over this track last year in the Prioress S.-G2, the daughter of Cupid is a two-time winner over this seven furlong distance and should settle in mid-pack and then take hold from the top of the lane to the wire. At 4-1 on the morning line, she’s a win play and the main punch in the various rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Starts Now; 9-Splashy; 8-Bomb Squad
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this state-bred maiden special weight middle distance turf affair for fillies and mares. You may find the need to increase your coverage in a difficult, open event. Starts Now has found a home on grass, and after finishing second in her last pair, the daughter of Mucho Macho Man may be ready to break through with a win. The switch to Irad Ortiz, Jr., is huge for a low profile outfit, so at 7/2 on the morning line we’ll put her slightly on top. The two Christophe Clement entrants - Splashy and Bomb Squad - are lightly raced with room to improve and could easily step up and graduate. The former has good tactical speed and should draft into a soft pace prompting early position and have her chance from there, while the latter does her best when held up early and allowed to take hold late.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:52 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Private Desire; 4-Dornoch
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Lambo; 3-Houlton.
Forecast: Let’s take a flyer on a big priced first time starter in this wide open maiden juvenile sprint. Private Desire hasn’t earned any fancy times in the morning, but this Todd Pletcher-trained colt has done everything asked while appearing to have more to give than permitted to show. The son of Constitution is a good-moving athlete and should be plenty fit, so at 12-1 on the morning line he’s worth a bit of a gamble. Dornoch seems certain to receive a ton of play after breezing a half from the gate in :46 2/5 while in company seven days ago, though his sluggish start from the barrier has to be disconcerting. A $325,000 son of Good Magic, he is a full brother to no less than 2023 Kentucky Derby-G1 winner Mage, so you know the expectations are high. Drum Roll Please is a $250,000 Hard Spun colt from the Brad Cox barn. We haven’t seen him on video, but the tab looks promising.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:26 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Elite Power; 5-Gunite
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Elite Power handled main rival Gunite rather easily when the two met in Saudi Arabia last winter and they square off again in this year’s edition of the Alfred G. Vanderbilt H.-G1. ‘Power has looked solid but not scintillating in the a.m. since his most recent win in the True North S.-G2 at Belmont Park last month and he did register a sharp overnight win over this track and distance in his only prior Spa appearance last summer, so there’s that, along with a winning streak that currently numbers seven. Those trying to beat the favorite will point out that Gunite’s best three speed figures are better than Elite Power’s career top. Something to ponder.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:02 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-New Ginya; 5-Expand the Map
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-No Show Sammy Jo.
Forecast: New Ginya, in the frame in nine of 10 career starts, is a dependable filly with a good price chance at 8-1 on the morning line in this allowance affair for fillies and mares over a mile on the inner course. She finished second in both of her prior Saratoga grass outings and most recently earned a career top speed figure when winning a state-bred event at this level sprinting at Belmont Park. Thus far in her career, Expand the Map has preferred to run second (five times) rather than win (once) but in a race that projects to have better than average early fractions the Irish-bred filly might be able to produce a dangerous late kick. Although she was flat and noncompetitive in a similar affair at Belmont Park last time out, a repeat of her race before last could be good enough to tag the leaders late.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:45 ET Grade: X
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Forte; 4-Saudi Crown
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Forte adds blinkers and should return to his winning form over the same track that produced his Hopeful S.-G1 win last year. He had a messed up spring and then fell short in the Belmont Stakes-G1, but there should be no excuses today for the champion son of Violence. Saudi Crown clearly is the controlling speed, and the number he earned when just missing in the one mile Dwyer S.-G3 is tops in the field. Can he stay nine furlongs? Given the soft trip he is certainly going to enjoy, it’s not out of the question.
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RACE 11: Post: 6:19 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 9-Act of Congress; 3-Snowy Evening; 10-Sikum
Backups/savers: 2-Summer At the Spa; 5-Fancypants Juliana.
Forecast: Act of Congress seeks her third straight win and will take them as far as she can in this abbreviated turf sprint for first level allowance state-bred fillies and mares. She earned a big figure in her victory two races back at Pimlico over five furlongs, but the number slipped considerably in her most recent outing at three-quarters of a mile. This five and one-half furlong trip splits the difference, so it will be “hold your breath” time in the final stages for those who back her. Snowy Evening has the route-to-sprint angle we like and looks to be the most dangerous of the closers, while Sikum, at 10-1, has a right to at least hit the board with her best effort and should be included somewhere on your ticket as well.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Tawaret; 5-Callie’s Grit
Backups/savers: 7-She’s Mo Bubble; 10-Sri Lanka.
Forecast: The finale is an inscrutable mini marathon for older fillies and mares over the inner course. Spread as deeply as you can afford to. Tawaret is a one-paced grinder but that’s the type that can win over 11 furlongs, and in just her fourth career start the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile has room for further improvement. The Clement-Rosario trainer/jockey team always is formidable and in a race that projects to have creepy-crawler splits she should be forwardly placed with a ground-saving journey. Callie’s Grit is a fit on numbers and is another that is lightly raced with possible improvement in her future. With Dynaformer on the bottom side of her pedigree, she has every right to enjoy the trip.
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