Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
*
Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
______________________________________________________________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Aggelos the Great; 7-Mischief Joke
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 2-Eric From Miami.
Forecast: Aggelos the Great looks like a live first timer in this New York-bred juvenile sprint. The son of City of Light breezed a furlong in a quick :21 1/5 at the OBS April sale before bringing $100,000 through the ring and then a recent local gate drill - View Workout - was fairly impressive, as well. In a field without any world beaters, he may be capable of winning at first asking. Mischief Joke has the benefit of three prior runs and shows an improving pattern. The son of Practical Joke gets an extra furlong to work with and his late-running style should be promoted by this six furlong distance. His numbers are okay, so with a forward move the Michael Maker-trained juvenile can be expected to produce a dangerous late kick.
*
RACE 2: Post: 1:44 ET Grade: B
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 5-Artemus Citylimits; 1-King Angelo
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Comedy Town.
Forecast: Artemus Citylimits exits six straight stakes races and today realistically drops into an allowance optional claimer ($62,500) in an attempt to regain his winning form. A perfect one-for-one over this course and distance, the son of Temple City should greatly enjoy the class relief. However, he’s listed at 9/5 on the morning line and at that price there’s not a lot of wagering value to be found. King Angelo also has proven to be partial to the local lawn (two wins in three starts) and could fire a big shot fresh in his first outing in more than two months. He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and with this return to turf the veteran son of Lemon Drop Kid has every right to step forward.
*
RACE 3: Post: 2:20 ET Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Catskill Humor
Backups/savers/Underneath: 6-Volatility; 1-St. Benedicts Prep.
Forecast: Catskill Humor closed a gap without threatening in her debut last fall at Keeneland and then disappeared. She returns in an expensive claimer for trainer Brad Cox (24% with layoffs) with a work tab that should have her fit enough, so if the daughter of Practical Joke can run, this would be a nice spot to show it. A recent half mile training track breeze - View Workout - really caught the eye, so we suspect she is extremely live in a soft spot. At 4-1 on the morning line, we’ll make her a strong play in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.
*
RACE 4: Post: 2:52 ET Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Quick Munny
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Awewsome Indra.
Forecast: Quick Munny was claimed for $50,000 last month at Ellis Park when second with a career top speed figure and today returns for blazingly hot trainer Linda Rice in a $40,000 seller for a barn that hits at a powerful 27% with the first-off-the-claim angle. When the purse for this race is $72,000, you can do these formerly suspicious class drops with success and regularity. The veteran mare should beat this field but at 7/5 on the morning line there’s not really too much we can do with her.
*
RACE 5: Post: 3:26 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Beta; 7-Colloquy
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Jackson Heights.
Forecast: Beta has won three of his last four at Finger Lakes while earning speed figures that make him competitive on the big circuit. A versatile and genuine son of Alpha, the veteran gelding can be tough at any distance and can win as the controlling speed or from a second flight, stalking position. At 7/2 on the morning line, he’ll give you an honest effort. Colloquy earned a huge number two races back when beating open starter allowance foes and a repeat of that race today will make him very difficult to beat, hence his morning line favorite’s role at 7/5. The Tom Morley-trained son of Flatter has a good stalking style to keep him trouble free and while he’s never been nine furlongs we suspect he’ll handle the distance just fine.
*
RACE 6: Post: 4:00 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Swore; 3-Sacred Rhyme
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Typhoon Lagoon.
Forecast: Swore should really enjoy this mini marathon distance and at age four with just three career starts the son of Broken Vow has plenty of improvement still in him. His numbers are rising with each outing and the rail post will afford a ground saving journey, so we’re expecting a major effort from the Graham Motion-trained colt in this moderate maiden turf affair. There’s value at or near his morning line of 4-1 if you can get it. Sacred Rhyme finished an even third in his debut over a middle distance at Monmouth Park in May and the Chad Brown barn has solid stats (21%) with the second time starter angle. He’s likely to improve and is worth including on your ticket.
*
RACE 7: Post: 4:34 ET Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Disarmed; 7-City Mischief
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Disarmed has rising numbers and with another forward move today the progressive turf sprinter should be tough right back after gamely winning an open starter’s allowance grass dash at Belmont Park last month with a career top figure. He’s thoroughly genuine and consistent and will never back down from a fight in the final furlong. He’s back with state-bred foes today and rates a slight edge at 3-1 on the morning line. City Mischief actually is a bit faster on pure numbers than our top pick but hasn’t been out since last December at Gulfstream Park. With Irad Ortiz, Jr. getting the mount, the son of Into Mischief seems certain to attract plenty of play as the 2-1 morning line favorite.
*
RACE 8: Post: 5:10 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Prove Right; 8-Joking Way; 7-Street Swagg
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 5-Dangerous Ride.
Forecast: Prove Right is fastest on pure numbers so we’ll put the son of Justify on top in this expensive claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. This will be his first start for a tag, and after being pitched too high in a series of stakes races – the last three of the graded variety – the Jimmy Chapman-trained sophomore may have found his friends. Joking Way (for $50,000 by Linda Rice) and Sweet Swagg (for $75,000 to Michael Maker) are making barn switches, so improvement is entirely possible. The former had no excuses when runner-up at even money last time out but everything Rice touches has turned to gold this meeting, so beware. The latter needs a boost in the speed figure department but picks up Irad Ortiz, Jr. and could easily produce a significant forward move.
*
RACE 9: Post: 5:44 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Ski Patrol; 8-Harry Hood
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Ski Patrol is drawn poorly outside in this inner turf miler for restricted (nw-2) $50,000 claimers but if the Jonathan Thomas-trained gelding can get over and gain a favorable early position he should be more than good enough to handle this moderate assignment. Second in his last three starts, most recently at 3/5 at Indiana Horseshoe, the lightly raced 5-year-old gelding may not be entirely trustworthy but anything close to his best race beats this group under Irad Ortiz, Jr. Harry Hood won a straight maiden at Ellis Park last month in gate-to-wire fashion in just his third career starts. He’s for sale today, so his connections obviously aren’t overwhelmed with his potential, but if he can secure another front running trip (or a comfortable stalking journey) he could be a strong factor most of the way.
*
RACE 10: Post: 6:18 ET Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-New York Thunder; 5-Ryvit
Backups/savers: 1-Drew’s Gold.
Forecast: Undefeated New York Thunder has much to prove in this year’s edition of the Amsterdam S.-G2 for sophomore sprinters but he’s a colt with much quality and could be up to this challenging task at a nice price. The son of Nyquist is comfortably drawn outside and projects to inherit an ideal pace-stalking trip and then have his chance to prove his class when the pressure is turned on. However, he was scratched out of the Woody Stephens S.-G1 June 10, didn’t work again for 13 days, and then went another three weeks without recording an official drill, so the concern for his fitness and current condition has to be seriously considered. Ryvit is the best of the quick types – he’s won five in a row – though he might have to deal with Drew’s Gold most of the way. ‘The latter ran a bang up second behind Arabian Lion in the Woody Stephens – his first defeat in five starts – but goes from the outside to the inside today and won’t get any breathers. Tough, tough race.
*
RACE 11: Post: 6:52 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 10-Variable Cost; 1-Timo; 6-Twirling Express
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Variable Cost returns to his claim level while making just his third career start and with even just slight improvement the Linda Rice-trained gelding should be able to earn his diploma in this maiden $40,000 middle distance turf event. He’s a one-paced grinder but really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. Timo shows up in a seller for the first time, lands the favorable rail, and looks like a live item in his first start since early January. The workouts aren’t fancy but should have him fit enough. Twirling Express, like Timo, arrives from Gulfstream Park and makes the always dangerous maiden to maiden claiming move. His only prior grass outing (a sprint debut) wasn’t bad so perhaps the switch from synthetic to turf will move him up.
.svg){kind=logo}
