Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Sea of Cortez; 5-Ghost Coast; 1-Caribbean King
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Legislator; 11-Uncle Reg.
Forecast: Sea of Cortez had a nice sprint prep last month in his U.S. debut and seems certain move forward while stretching out to a distance he should he handled in his only start as a 2-year-old over the all-weather surface in Ireland last year. The Phil D’Amato barn has superior stats with the second-off-a-layoff angle, so in a wide open maiden race over a mile on grass the Caravaggio gelding appears well placed to graduate. Ghost Coast, in his first start since May, returns as a first time gelding in his California debut for trainer Jeff Mullins. His Florida and Midwest form from earlier this year earned numbers that fit with these and it’s likely he’ll be a better type this time around. Caribbean King is another making his first start since being gelded and returns for trainer Peter Eurton with an inside draw that could lead to being the controlling speed. With top rider Juan Hernandez remaining aboard, the son of Speightstown should be included somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 3-Teddy’s Triumph; 5-Grazen Boy.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Teddy’s Triumph plummets from straight maiden to maiden $32,000 after stalking a hot pace and then fading through the lane in a quick dash last month. At this level, the Peter Miller-trained gelding could get very brave and roll all the way to the wire, though at 8/5 on the morning line there really isn’t a whole lot we can do with him. Grazen Boy probably needed the outing when sixth of eighth in his debut in a recent maiden $50,000 affair. It was a strong race for the level – the winner returned to finish second in a valuable California-bred stakes race yesterday – so he’s another that is very likely to be much more competitive against this group.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-King Apollo; 2-X J Rascal.
Backups/savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: King Apollo doesn’t always get there – he’s won three races and finished second or third eight times from 16 races – but he usually gives his best and with a little luck the veteran sprinter will be able to outrun this first level allowance field over six furlongs on the flat course. This will be his second start off a brief layoff, and with anything close to his best race he’ll be heard from in the final furlong. X J Rascal finished fifth in the same race our top pick finished second in and probably didn’t care for the Hillside Course. It’s likely he will improve under these conditions. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Bossy Bruin Gal; 1-Indian Dreamer; 6-Capo Sorella
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Here’s an inscrutable maiden claiming sprint for juvenile fillies that probably should be left alone. Rolling exotic players may be inclined to spread in a race in which nothing would surprise. Bossy Bruin Gal shows up in a seller for the first time after being out of her element in straight maiden races and even a stakes race that she competed in last time out at 43-1 (she finished last of eight, beaten 15 lengths). This class drop with the addition of blinkers could be the winning ticket, but who knows? Indian Dreamer also is being dropped from a pair maiden special weight races in which she was basically non-competitive, but against this group she’s a contender by default. Capo Sorella was a slow fourth at this level at Los Alamitos last time out but shows the blinkers off angle, so we’ll put her on the ticket.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:02 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Big Swede; 1-Paco’s Pico
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 3-Handr’sream.
Forecast: Big Swede has had soundness issues – he was a voided claim three races back at Del Mar – but displayed good form in a pair of subsequent outings and should enjoy a soft stalking trip outside. By default, he’s the top pick. Paco’s Pico was claimed for $20,000 two races back and then finished far back in his first start for new connections when raised a level at Los Alamitos in a race that he, too, was a voided claim. Today, he shows up at the bottom $10,000 level, so it’s anybody’s guess as to his current condition. He has numbers from last year that would bury this field, but his 2023 resume is bleak. We’ll use him on our ticket weak affair but not with any degree of confidence. Tread lightly.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Queen Goddess; 5-Full Count Felicia.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Freshened since May, Queen Goddess returns over a course we know she likes, and the daughter of Empire Maker has a history of firing fresh, so she deserves her 2-1 favorite’s role in this year’s renewal of the Goldikova Stakes-G2. Always genuine and consistent and retaining “win rider” Luis Saez, the Michael McCarthy can win on the front end or from a stalking position, so the race flow shouldn’t matter much to her. Full Count Felicia is a sharp and improving Mid-Atlantic shipper with numbers that make her competitive at this level on this circuit. She’s another that can win as the controlling speed or from off the pace, and with just 12 starts under her belt the daughter of War Front probably has further improvement in her. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Queen Goddess on top.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:02 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Tahoe Secrets; 5-Too Much Info.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Tahoe Secrets has been stale this year but makes his first start following a claim by a capable outfit, removes blinkers, and gets a chance to make amends after failing as the 7/5 favorite in a similar restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming sprint. In a race without much early zip, the son of Secret Circle will be prominent throughout if he leaves cleanly from the rail. Too Much Info finished second in the same race out top pick wound up seventh last time out, so on that basis alone he rates a chance even though he’s never earned a speed figure in 10 previous races that is par for this level. It’s that kind of race.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:32 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Anisette; 2-Impact Warrior.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 8-Coffee in Bed; 11-Ruby Nell.
Forecast: Del Mar Oaks-G1 winner Anisette lost nothing in defeat when second to Didia in a powerful race facing older foes over 10 furlongs in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 last month. She’s back with her own age group today in the Autumn Miss Stakes-G3 while shortening to a mile and should make the most of the opportunity, though at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she might not offer much in the way of wagering value. Impact Warrior, a respectable third in the Del Mar Oaks-G1, may be better suited at this shorter distance and with only slight improvement could provide our top pick with some competition, especially with the switch to Flavian Prat.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:02 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 3-Moose Mitchell; 5-Patron d’Oro
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Moose Mitchell is simply faster than these on numbers, though his failure to seal the deal when 4/5 at Los Alamitos in a similar starter allowance dash in his last start is a bit concerning. He’s a four time winner (with two seconds) in seven starts over the Santa Anita main track, so we’ll give him a chance to make amends over his favorite main track. Patron d’Oro earned a giant figure when winning a $25,000 seller at Los Al in September and in a sign of confidence is protected today by trainer Peter Miller. He’s been sparingly raced throughout his career but in his present form he’s the one that ‘Mitchell has to worry about the most.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:32 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Stamp My Passport; 5-Baj; 2-Lahaina Flavor
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 7-Crosby Beach.
Forecast: Stamp My Passport is perfect in two starts over the Santa Anita lawn and returns to the sod after finishing far back with a wide trip from a poor post in a main track miler at this level last month. His race before last charts quite well with these, he retains Juan Hernandez, and looks capable of regaining his winning form from his comfortable number four post position. Baja may lack a winning punch, but his best puts him right there, so we’ll use him. Lahaina Flavor is a big number on the morning line (15-1) and is probably better than his last race shows, when the lightly raced gelding made an extremely wide, premature move on the far turn before losing his steam late. Patient tactics today can produce a better result.
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