Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): She’s Got a Way; 2-Albayaader
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: She’s Got a Way just won a similar starter allowance sprint over the flat turf course from off the pace, doing so with a career top speed figure, and she seems like a logical pick to repeat given today’s extra furlong that compliments her late running style. She’ll be trying to turn the tables on the other main contender, Albayaader, who pulled off an 8-1 upset when beating our top selection over this course and distance in mid-February. Subsequently second in a hot race last month, the Irish-bred filly probably has further improvement in her but for now her speed figures are a little shy of what it will take to win today. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main push going to She’s Got a Way.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Run for My Honey; 5-Back On the Street
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Run for My Honey, freshened since December, drops to her lowest level ever and has speed figures that are more than good enough to beat this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 field of fillies and mares. She’s primarily been a turf or all-weather performer but did finish third in her only prior dirt appearance, so we suspect the surface switch won’t be an issue. She’s projected to draft into a second flight, stalking position and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Back On the Street was out of her element when unplaced facing $32,000 foes on turf last time out but under these easier conditions the daughter of Malibu Moon may regain her best form. Winless in six starts over the local dirt strip and just 1-for-19 in her career, the Ray Bell-trained mare hardly is one to trust, but in a below par race for the level she must be given a reasonable look.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Mi Hermano Ramon; 2-Game Time
Backups/savers: none.
Forecast: Mi Hermano Ramon returns from Kentucky, where he finished a no excuse but respectable fourth (beaten three lengths, just behind yesterday’s American Turf S.-G2 winner Webslinger) while earning a career top speed figure in the Transylvania Stakes-G3 at Keeneland. Today, over a course we know he likes, the son of Creative Cause can return to winning form in this year’s edition of the Singletary Stakes. The Mark Glatt-trained colt projects to enjoy a perfect ground-saving, second flight journey before being given his cue at the head of the lane. Game Time has good form and rising speed figures and is arguably the one too fear most, though this nine furlong distance might be stretching his limit. Perhaps best as the controlling speed, the son of Not This Time may have to deal with other speed types, so we’ll include as a backup only while reserving the majority of the investment for Mi Hermano Ramon.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: X
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Kiss My Kat
Backups/Savers: none.
Forecast: Kiss My Kat is raised from $12,500 to $20,000 in quest of her third straight win for new trainer Gary Stute following a claim, and based on the speed figure she earned in her most recent victory the daughter of Curlin to Mischief should easily handle this assignment. Furthermore, it will be surprising if she’s not claimed again. The rail is no concern – both of her last two victories were accomplished from the inside draw – so in a race in which she probably will go lower than her morning line of 8/5 we can use her a short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Reckless Spirit; 7-Coalinga Road
Backups/savers: 4-Tropical Terror.
Forecast: Here’s a spread race for first level allowance turf milers, with several possibilities to consider in a challenging handicapping puzzle. We’ll go three-deep in our rolling exotics and hope that’s sufficient to survive and advance. Reckless Spirit makes his second local start after finishing an excellent second in a similar affair in February in his first outing for high percentage grass trainer Phil D’Amato. The son of Tapit prefers to settle early and produce a late kick, and in a field with sufficient early pace to give him a fair shot the veteran gelding may be able to tag the speed close home. Coalinga Road is the ultimate grinder and probably needs to be within striking range of the early lead to have his best chance. First or second in 11 of 20 career starts, the Carla Gaines-trained son of Quality Road doesn’t always get there but usually at least lands in the frame. Tropical Terror shows the blinkers off angle that we always like for his first outing since last October. He has a history of firing huge off a layoff, and while he always has preferred to run second or third (10 times) rather than win (twice), the James Cassidy-trained gelding has numbers that could produce an upset at 10-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): Andy Can U Hear Me; Cowboy Mike
Backups/savers: 2-Devil Be Me
Forecast: Andy Can U Hear Me is a good-looking and talented son of The Factor making his racing debut in this straight maiden California-bred sprint. Listed at 6-1 on the morning line, the Jeff Mullins-trained gelding has had some issues leaving the gate in his morning trials, but if he breaks running today he should be part of the pace throughout. Plenty fit based on his recent workouts, this sophomore looks like a live item and is worth a bit of gamble at a reasonable price. Cowboy Mike was expected to win his debut last month – he left at 4/5 – but failed to justify his heavy support when winding up third despite having every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Perhaps he needed the race, so we’ll give him another chance and make him the one to beat for trainer Bob Baffert, whose second timers (20%) often produce a forward move. Devil Be Me earned a big figure when second in a maiden $50,000 state bred claimer in October of 2021 but then disappeared. He returns protected in a sign of confidence and has trained well enough to be fit and ready for new trainer Phil D’Amato.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Mucho Del Oro; 5-Standing O
Backups/savers: 2-Harbored Memories
Forecast: Mucho Del Oro was virtually eased in the Turf Paradise Turf Stakes in February but after some time off returns in a realistic allowance optional claimer over a turf course than has seen him win four races from six starts, qualifying the veteran gelding as a true horse-for-course. This drop back in trip to six furlongs suits him wonderfully, and with a series of smart recent workouts that include a bullet :58 3/5 five furlong drill early last month the son of Mucho Macho Man seems ready for a major effort. Standing O is a lightly raced 5-year-old making his second start off a layoff following a solid third place effort at this level in a Hillside Turf Course affair in mid-March. A winner over this flat course and distance last summer, the Phil D’Amato-trained gelding is a versatile performer who can win on the front end or from far off the pace. He is reunited with “win” rider Umberto Rispoli and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. Harbored Memories, away for nearly a year, returns with blinkers and form over the local lawn (first or second in five of six starts) that make him a solid contender despite the layoff. The works should have him plenty fit, he has a history of firing fresh, and jockey Jose Valdivia knows him well.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:37 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): Murray; 4-Lovesick Blues
Backups/savers: 7-Kingdom Heart
Forecast: Murray had a nightmarish trip when unplaced in his comeback in February but has trained like his old self since, so we’re expecting to see his best race in this entry-level allowance sprint for older horses. After breaking his maiden in his 2-year-old debut at Del Mar like a potential star, the Bob Baffert-trained colt has been in and out of training while racing just three times since, but perhaps this son of Street Sense is finally where he needs to be with regards to health and conditioning. Lovesick Blues was scratched out of a sprint stakes at Golden Gate Fields last Saturday (he breezed the following day) and shows up in this (theoretically) softer spot with a major chance based on speed figures earned in recent starter allowance races. A two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Grazen has the proper closing style for this extended sprint distance, but loses recent win rider Juan Hernandez, who has opted for Murray. Kingdom Heart arrives from Turf Paradise following a runaway win against much lesser foes and will need to step it up to act against this group. Lightly raced and undefeated in his two previous sprint races on dirt, the Vladimir Cerin-trained colt is a 3-year-old colt tackling older foes but has a look of a nice sort and can at least hit the board.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Tallis; 9-Numero Dix
Backups/savers: 10-Derecho Dandy
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag over a mile for starter optional claimers ($50,000) that requires significant coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll triple the race but you should feel free to spread even deeper if you can afford to. Based on his Gulfstream Park form, Tallis offers some value in the straight pool at or near his morning line of 6-1 and is one of several that have credentials to win. The Bob Hess Jr.-trained shipper has good tactical speed, numbers that fit, and a favorable inside draw that will ensure a comfortable ground-saving, stalking journey under Kent Desormeaux. Numero Dix, off the track since October of 2021, returns as a first-time gelding and with blinkers on, and with a series of strong training track drills to have fit and ready the English-bred trained by Jeff Mullins could be a lot better this time around. The barn’s “go-to” rider Hector Berrios lands the call. Derecho Dandy gets the worst of the draw but if he can get over a secure a second flight, stalking trip without losing much ground he should be a strong factor throughout. He’s worth including on your ticket as a backup or a saver.
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