Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, & Wagering Strategies identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play
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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 1-Report
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Report has trained like an outstanding prospect in recent weeks and finally makes it to the post in this extended sprint for older maiden fillies and mares. The Richard Mandella-trained daughter of Empire Maker has outworked everything that she’s been matched up with and has done so in easy fashion while always finishing with plenty left. It’s always problematic to back a first timer breaking from the rail in a sprint but is this case we’ll bend the rules. Let’s make her an enthusiastic win play and rolling exotic single and hope for a trouble free trip.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 6-Duty First; 2-Sanger; 4-Castleknock.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Here’s a tough and competitive starter optional claiming turf sprint that offers several possibilities. Duty First is a rapidly improving son of Smiling Tiger fresh from a highly rated maiden $50,000 state-bred score at Los Alamitos two weeks ago and could be dangerous right back with another forward move. How he’ll handle the switch to grass is anybody’s guess, but with Elusive Quality on the dam’s side there’s a decent expectation that he’ll have no issue with the lawn. There is little doubt based on bloodlines that Sanger will move up on the sod. The son of Desert Code (from an Unusual Heat mare) nosed out Duty First in a maiden $50,000 dirt track sprint at Del Mar last time out with a much improved speed figure, and with another forward move today could easily score right back, especially with the switch to top rider Juan Hernandez. Castleknock seems to have found his niche as a late-running turf sprinter, and with some help up almost certainly will be heard from late.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:03 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Gate to Paradise
Backups/savers/Underneath: 8-Laurent.
Forecast: Gate to Paradise was a non-threatening third in the Del Mar Debutante-G1 behind the best juvenile filly in North America (Tamara) but won’t have to worry about her in this year’s edition of the Chandelier S.-G2. The daughter of Arrogate gives every indication that she will continue to improve with experience and distance, and in her first try around two turns the Peter Eurton-trained filly should be ready for an explosive performance. The pace projects to be decent at the very least, so we’re expecting this $950,000 OBS March purchase to produce a winning late kick while offering excellent value at or near her morning line of 5-1.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: A-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Slider
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Slider earned giant speed figures in both of his starts to date, most recently when graduating at Del Mar with an ideal pace-stalking trip and a strong late kick that separated himself from his rivals from the furlong pole to the wire. He’ll try turf today and while his pedigree doesn’t guarantee he’ll move up on the lawn, the son of Jimmy Creed is simply faster than these. The option is there to settle in the second flight and make a late run should jockey Hector Berrios deem it advisable. The John Sadler-trained colt is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:07 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 1-Magic Spoon; 6-Red On Sunday; 9-Stay On the Fence
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: This maiden state-bred juvenile sprint is borderline inscrutable. The known element appears average, and we have no video on the fast working first-timer Magic Spoon, so the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows in the various rolling exotics. Small ticket players should consider at least using the three listed above. ‘Spoon has turned in a few fast-timed drills so we have to assume he can run some, though his rail post position makes his hard to back with confidence. Red On Sunday finished an okay second in his debut at Del Mar when facing a similar field and the Peter Miller barn has strong stats with second timers, so this Smiling Tiger gelding is an obvious contender. Stay On the Fence was beaten a neck at Del Mar in his second start last month at Del Mar and with another forward move today should be right there.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:39 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 8-Lord Bullingdon; 9-Sand Bagger.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: 4-Andreadytorumble.
Forecast: Lord Bullingdon was a willing runner-up in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf-G2 last month and earned a decent speed figure in the process. This will be his third start, so another forward move is likely, and with this return to the maiden ranks the son of Lord Nelson is the logical top pick. Sand Bagger is an intriguing first time starter from the Richard Mandella barn with series of good works that should have him fit and ready. He doesn’t strike us as a speed type but his dam was a good grass mare so this colt may be better than his dirt drills indicate. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:11 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 9-Bag’s Gold; 7-Elevado; 6-Book Smart.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Bag’s Gold was dreadful as the favorite in a first level allowance state-bred sprint at Del Mar after winning his previous race with a powerful figure. If he runs back to his race before last, he’ll beat these, plain and simple, and a bullet training track drill last week gives hope that he’s ready to bounce back. Elevado earned a decent number when handling restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers at Del Mar and today tackles tougher (nw-3, $20,000) in his first start since being haltered by Mark Glatt. The Street Boss gelding has the proper second flight, stalking style for this extended sprint distance. Book Smart won a nw-2 $32,000 seller in early August at Del Mar but has been on the shelf for two months and is dropping in price off that win, making his current condition a bit of a question mark. On pure numbers, he’s right there with these, so we’ll include him but not necessarily trust him.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:41 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Anisette; 6-Dida
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Anisette tackles older foes today in her toughest test to date, but the Del Mar Oaks-G1 winner has numbers that should allow her to compete quite well against these seasoned fillies and mares, and we suspect that she’s ready for another high class performance over a mile and one-quarter trip that should bring out her best. This is her audition for the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf and we’re expecting that she’ll pass the test. Didia is an outstanding Eastern invader with superior form and powerful figures that make her strictly the one to beat. The Argentine-bred mare was unbeaten in the States through her first four North American starts but then finished second in her most recent outing in June in the New York Stakes-G1, losing nothing in defeat. She will give our top pick all she can handle.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:11 PT Grade: A
Main ticket (in order of preference): 2-Muth
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Muth should be lone gone stretching out for the first time in this year’s renewal of the American Pharoah Stakes-G1, a critical prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Below his best form when a distant second to stable mate Prince of Monaco in the Best Pal S.-G2 last time out, the son of Good Magic has worked brilliantly since returning to Santa Anita, where he broke his maiden at first asking by almost nine lengths in June. He’s better now than then, so we’re expecting him to put on an exhibition at a very short price.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:41 PT Grade: B-
Main ticket (in order of preference): 4-Kissed by Fire; 2-Ragtime Rose; 6-Alvina.
Backups/Savers/Underneath: none.
Forecast: Here’s a difficult grass sprint for first level allowance fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Kissed by Fire is the quickest of the quick and following a confidence building maiden turf sprint win at Del Mar the Peter Eurton-trained daughter of Friesan Fire should be capable of taking the class hike in style. Today’s extra furlong may test her, but as the controlling speed she should be able to get the trip. Ragtime Rose, freshened since May, returns as a first time Lasix user and could be the most dangerous of the closers. She’s won over this course and distance in the past and could be an even better type this time around for Jeff Mullins. Alvina has a chance if there’s a pace meltdown. She’s seeking her first U.S. win since being imported from France should be running on strongly through the lane.
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